Philippines | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.7 6.2 6 6.4 6.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.1 3.2 3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1728241.69 -1924000 -1691000 -2741000 -1802000 -1640000 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43.57 39 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 49.88 50.64 51.14 52.65 52.15 60.17 [+]
Stock Market 7726.45 7240 7170 6950 7020 5850 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 5.13 5.11 5.16 5.21 5.26 6.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.60 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.7 6 percent [+]
GDP 292.45 309 309 309 308 337 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2079491.00 2140661 2170253 2210102 2228550 2647181 PHP Million [+]
Gross National Product 2494692.00 2500000 2520000 2600000 2661044 2840000 PHP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 615842.39 591000 606300 685000 686705 808000 PHP Million [+]
GDP per capita 2639.90 2664 2688 2712 2724 2857 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6938.21 7877 7948 8020 8247 11358 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 174563.28 136000 123000 176000 145272 203000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 212997.44 233000 204000 232000 185734 286000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 535769.45 484000 446000 563000 496156 664000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 15133.33 25500 15200 15100 19014 16100 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 84381.40 92073 81000 84000 78845 92000 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Services 1229220.40 1229131 1150356 1229041 1150446 1228508 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 60707.69 74500 59000 61200 60910 72800 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 65483.83 74000 78000 67100 66287 74000 PHP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.7 6.2 6 6.4 6.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 39347.00 40800 41100 41500 39507 43700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2761.00 2800 2500 2300 2900 2700 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.70 63.7 63.2 63.4 60.76 64 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 199942.00 257000 186461 190461 186461 306461 [+]
Wages 8280.00 8410 8700 8530 8585 10300 PHP/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1571.87 1600 1650 1600 1500 2000 Index Points [+]
Population 103.90 103 103 104 104 110 Million [+]
Employment Rate 93.40 94.1 94.7 95 94.16 94.3 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.1 3.2 3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 147.50 148 149 151 152 167 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 143.20 144 145 146 148 160 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.90 2.6 2.7 3 3.2 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 186.39 179 185 192 186 212 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 138.91 139 138 140 142 152 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 2.5 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 percent [+]
Food Inflation 4.00 3.6 3.9 3.7 3 3.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 110.45 101 102 112 109 119 Price Index [+]
Cpi Transportation 130.80 133 135 135 136 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 115.66 116 114 117 118 128 Price Index [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 847613.24 920000 940000 1050000 980000 1430000 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3053016.37 3185470 3276061 3366077 3455817 4427414 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 9076707.44 9407716 9564397 9696025 9792193 10232182 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 9433041.28 9794801 10016882 10242985 10100043 12909595 PHP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 80870.00 81200 82900 83600 84500 101000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1065.70 1080 1090 1100 1170 1430 PHP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.60 1.8 2.13 3 3 5 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 217290.12 275000 257400 279000 281000 384000 PHP Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5382521.86 5636681 5805418 5975899 6146424 7160000 PHP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4559.10 4600 4690 4710 4770 5090 PHP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1728241.69 -1924000 -1691000 -2741000 -1802000 -1640000 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 4782453.49 5134769 5054357 5065861 5474582 5690000 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 6510695.19 7058493 6745619 7806777 7276640 8730000 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account -197.31 328 78 1420 -80 589 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.20 3.4 3.4 1.21 3.1 0.63 percent [+]
External Debt 76621.97 80500 81500 82500 78887 83325 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 8.80 15 12 14 9.56 16 USD Million [+]
Remittances 2169240.80 2470000 2451070 2610000 2245763 2940000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 631639.00 487000 450145 600000 560000 831000 [+]
Gold Reserves 196.34 197 197 197 197 205 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 7.10 7.38 6.89 7.4 6.79 7.4 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 125694.30 52000 61000 162000 48127 197000 PHP Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 24 25 27 19.99 40 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43.57 39 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -3 -3 -3 -2.8 -2.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -61500.00 -80000 -76000 -10629 -31000 -99399 PHP Million [+]
Government Spending 186933.61 270000 200446 208000 200502 249000 PHP Million [+]
Government Revenues 180200.00 169000 180301 210000 180469 245000 PHP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 241700.00 245000 200000 268000 218275 332000 PHP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3893.20 4741 4741 4741 3668 6200 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 39.40 46 45 41 43 51.7 [+]
Industrial Production 13.60 7.8 6.4 0.8 2.2 5.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.69 83.3 83.5 83.7 83.5 83.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 14428.34 -1730 7200 11818 1084 7143 PHP Million [+]
Car Registrations 103576.00 128000 130000 138000 109108 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.04 0.3 -0.01 0.1 -0.01 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.80 53.1 54.5 53.8 51.9 54.4 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 11853.00 13020 13780 14100 13200 21450 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.36 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.36 4.36 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 57.00 43 43 52 59 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 99.00 88 88 88 87 83 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 40 40 34 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 73 73 73 115 65 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 8.70 5.8 3.2 5.1 5.13 7 [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 5.10 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1434402.00 154000 157000 1590000 1590000 1890000 PHP Million [+]
Personal Savings 4091513.61 4231107 4329545 4427260 4523807 5509642 Million PHP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.64 5.27 5.25 5.21 5.39 5.6 percent [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.30 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.37 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 248.10 243 246 263 243 346 PHP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.88 0.9 0.83 0.92 0.83 1.2 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 12131.00 9380 10820 9500 10775 12800 PHP/SQ. METRE [+]
Building Permits 32282.00 43200 38900 37700 45620 43900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 percent [+]