Philippines | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.4 6.2 6 6.4 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2302160.00 -1887500 -2500000 -2955200 -2930000 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43 39 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 49.97 50.64 51.14 52.65 52.15 60.17 [+]
Stock Market 7837.82 7240 7170 6950 7020 5850 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.97 5.11 5.16 5.21 5.26 6.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 percent [+]
GDP 292.45 318 318 318 335 365 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2105290.00 2140661 2170253 2210102 2208472 2647181 PHP Million [+]
Gross National Product 2522142.00 2550000 2580000 2630000 2660000 2950000 PHP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 609964.37 602000 627000 716000 682000 926000 PHP Million [+]
GDP per capita 2639.90 2860 2860 2860 2970 3170 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6938.21 7680 7680 7680 7910 8400 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 153711.86 140000 133000 179000 159600 200000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 179941.13 237000 214000 232000 188300 286000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 493645.75 484000 446000 563000 513801 664000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 18842.65 24000 14500 16000 18900 16100 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 73500.67 92073 80000 87000 77812 94000 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Services 1141072.00 1213199 1135111 1205936 1133145 1172409 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 66825.72 76700 62500 66700 71800 80500 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 60817.99 74000 78000 67100 61679 74000 PHP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.4 6.2 6 6.4 6.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 39347.00 40800 41100 41500 40500 43700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2761.00 2800 2500 2300 2900 2700 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.70 61.2 62 62.8 61.8 64 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 199942.00 257000 186461 190461 186461 306461 [+]
Wages 8280.00 8410 8700 8530 8585 10300 PHP/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1538.90 1660 1690 1650 1250 2020 Index Points [+]
Population 103.90 106 106 106 107 110 Million [+]
Employment Rate 93.40 93.6 93.8 94 93.6 94.3 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 147.80 148 149 151 152 167 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 143.70 144 145 146 148 160 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.00 2.6 2.7 3 3.2 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 177.91 179 185 192 186 212 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 135.85 139 138 140 142 152 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.10 2.5 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 133.50 134 135 136 137 145 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 4.20 3.6 3.9 3.7 3 3.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 103.71 101 102 112 109 119 Price Index [+]
Cpi Transportation 131.60 133 135 135 136 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.65 116 114 117 118 128 Price Index [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 882919.23 920000 940000 1050000 980000 1430000 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3107901.04 3194516 3286603 3378075 3469233 4456325 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 9152967.33 9339889 9545962 9754285 9792193 12198426 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 9495952.28 9681077 9835772 9966533 10100043 10594067 PHP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81817.00 82000 82900 83600 84500 101000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1041.80 1080 1090 1100 1170 1430 PHP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.60 3 3 3 3 5 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 224900.95 275000 257400 279000 281000 384000 PHP Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5458025.73 5615270 5780736 5947399 6114214 7160000 PHP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4559.10 4600 4690 4710 4770 5090 PHP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2302160.00 -1887500 -2500000 -2955200 -2930000 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 5579350.00 5462500 5310000 5064800 5730000 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 7881510.00 7350000 7810000 8020000 8660000 8730000 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account -197.31 328 78 1420 -80 589 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.20 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1 percent [+]
External Debt 76621.97 80500 81500 82500 78887 83325 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 8.80 15 12 14 8 16 USD Million [+]
Remittances 2615000.00 2700000 2680000 2780000 2900000 3340000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 579178.00 487000 450145 600000 560000 831000 [+]
Gold Reserves 196.34 197 197 197 197 205 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 7.10 7.38 6.89 7.4 6.79 7.4 [+]
Crude Oil Production 20.00 24 25 27 19.99 40 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 125694.30 52000 61000 162000 48127 197000 PHP Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43 39 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -3 -3 -3 -2.8 -2.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -61500.00 -76000 -80000 -98000 -74000 -87000 PHP Million [+]
Government Spending 207409.12 260000 208000 182000 212000 212000 PHP Million [+]
Government Revenues 180200.00 200000 194300 210000 200000 245000 PHP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 241700.00 245000 260000 308000 254000 332000 PHP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3893.20 4741 4741 4741 5200 6200 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 39.40 41 40 42 43 50 [+]
Industrial Production 12.20 7.8 6.4 0.8 3.2 5.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.78 83.3 83.5 83.7 83.5 83.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -2195.95 -1730 7200 12546 -3870 5176 PHP Million [+]
Car Registrations 103576.00 128000 130000 138000 145000 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.04 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.30 53.1 54.5 53.8 51.9 54.4 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 9862.00 13020 13780 14100 13200 21450 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.36 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.36 4.36 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 57.00 43 43 52 59 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 99.00 95 95 95 90 83 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 40 40 43 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 85 85 85 82 69 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 8.70 5.8 6.1 7.5 8.2 7 [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 4.40 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1455678.00 1580000 1500000 1520000 1520000 1780000 PHP Million [+]
Personal Savings 4083678.06 4171440 4261691 4350730 4438509 5326395 Million PHP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.20 5.2 5.25 5.5 5.7 6.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Mom -0.20 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.22 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 248.10 243 246 263 272 346 PHP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.92 0.9 0.96 0.92 0.95 1.2 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 12131.00 9380 10820 9500 10775 12800 PHP/SQ. METRE [+]
Building Permits 32282.00 43200 38900 37700 45620 43900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 percent [+]