Russia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.4 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 9.75 9.5 9 9 8.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 11445.00 8000 7600 7700 13200 11000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 24 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 56.81 59.1 59.68 60.27 61.44 70.21 [+]
Stock Market 2011.25 2040 2020 2000 1960 1650 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.99 8.35 8.44 8.52 8.6 9.92 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.40 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 1331.20 1390 1400 1420 1450 1640 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 15754.50 13590 14566 16542 16632 17546 RUB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2684.40 1620 2300 2710 4440 4800 RUB Billion [+]
GDP per capita 11038.82 11860 11860 11860 11860 12180 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23895.34 24203 24285 24367 24448 25945 USD [+]
Gross National Product 65166840.30 7800000 7800000 7800000 7800000 101500000 RUB Million [+]
GDP From Agriculture 1002.30 230 370 1050 683 833 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 965.00 540 750 950 1248 1328 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1788.00 1537 1770 1770 1995 2080 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1284.70 1279 1208 1295 1330 1410 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 832.80 855 857 850 864 1030 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 1106.00 945 1020 1080 1120 1200 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 370.20 480 375 390 500 564 RUB Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 71.30 72.1 72.8 73.2 72.3 72.7 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 4.20 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.6 Million [+]
Employment Rate 64.70 65.2 66 66.1 65.8 65.72 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.50 69.2 69.8 69.7 69.8 69.7 percent [+]
Productivity 0.90 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2 percent [+]
Job Offers 1208136.00 1159632 1424995 1412982 1329953 1680370 Persons [+]
Wages 35900.00 38808 40008 38210 49506 55000 RUB/Month [+]
Wage Growth 101.30 101 101 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 35675.00 35200 36072 38000 42100 48900 RUB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 7500.00 7500 7500 8900 8900 10100 RUB/Month [+]
Population 146.50 148 148 148 148 155 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 57 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Living Wage Family 33965.10 35500 35700 35900 36000 40000 RUB/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 35518.60 35800 36000 36100 36300 39200 RUB/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 38600.00 40500 41000 41000 41000 45700 RUB/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 13100.00 14000 14000 15290 15728 20984 RUB/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 4.60 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 542.30 549 555 558 565 649 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.40 100 100 100 101 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 5.00 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 140.85 144 146 149 151 166 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 636.00 643 660 674 688 797 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.10 13.1 9.2 11.8 12.5 4.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.90 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 9.75 9.5 9 9 8.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.32 10 10 9 9 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7540.80 7600 7800 7900 8000 8700 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 17322.70 17400 18500 19300 20000 31400 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 38014.00 39700 40500 41000 42300 52200 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 397334.00 399000 401000 403000 406549 420000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2029.50 2210 2210 2200 2343 3340 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 22036746.00 22211512 22245849 22351256 22450910 23318990 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 8 8 8 8 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7 7.25 7.25 7.25 8 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 11445.00 8000 7600 7700 13200 11000 USD Million [+]
Exports 25121.00 25100 25645 26750 35441 40800 USD Million [+]
Imports 13676.00 17100 18086 19071 22208 29800 USD Million [+]
Current Account 7800.00 9800 2800 3400 6316 15000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2 2 2 2 2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 518.70 520 527 525 522 628 USD Billion [+]
Capital Flows 2894.31 9800 10200 8800 7206 14200 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1615.22 1667 1718 1769 1819 2370 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 10832.00 10100 10400 10500 10600 10800 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 4478.00 3960 4800 4600 5130 5920 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 6.5 6.8 5.31 6.8 6.5 [+]
Weapons Sales 5483.00 6500 6500 6500 6500 8500 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 3861.00 3819 4047 -220 2580 5690 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 24 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 295924.80 -18833295 -13400310 -7968700 -2781602 -18297240 RUB Million [+]
Government Spending 2740.50 2780 2800 2820 2850 3140 RUB Billion [+]
Government Revenues 1978849.20 5858506 12546564 19297040 26263300 29056824 RUB Million [+]
Government Debt 10634.70 11124 12225 125224 12963 18168 RUB Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 1682924.40 24691802 25946874 27265740 29044902 47354064 RUB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 91080.90 97508 97919 97919 97919 107654 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence -2.00 -3 -2 1 2 4 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.50 53.1 51.1 50.4 50.8 53.5 [+]
Services PMI 55.50 55.2 54.2 55 52.7 54 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -2.70 1.3 0.4 3.1 2.2 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.60 9.5 2 2.1 7.4 6.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -5.10 1 0.2 2.8 1.8 4.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 63.00 64 63.6 64 64 64.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1222.10 -85.44 -220 1800 -1320 -737 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 106658.00 117000 120000 124000 148000 198000 [+]
Car Production 98.20 97 95 101 95 158 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 106658.00 127000 121000 124000 132000 198000 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.60 0.2 0.1 0.3 1 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.00 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.5 4.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 61.50 62 61.4 60.8 60.2 62 [+]
Steel Production 5585.00 6036 5790 5900 6056 6095 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 2.70 3.4 6.5 6 3.3 3.8 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.51 4.41 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.78 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 43 43 43 43 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.40 54.2 52.7 52.6 51.8 53.6 [+]
Bankruptcies 2870.00 1030 1200 1000 1110 1090 Legal entities [+]
Corporate Profits 11.60 3750 5900 8400 12200 16070 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 33 33 33 33 40 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 110 110 140 108 100 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 45 45 45 45 33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -18.00 -15 -17 -12 -10 -4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.30 5.4 1 -0.6 21 22.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -2.60 -1.9 -0.7 0.8 1.6 5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 7626.70 6900 7020 7600 8100 9160 RUB Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 10643612.00 10500000 10600000 10800000 11000000 12000000 RUB Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 32680358.00 32762400 32881509 32998051 33106948 33944071 RUB Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.73 11.1 10.7 10.5 9.5 7.5 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 68.30 73 74 77 75 89 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.7 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index -0.30 5.72 3.38 2.2 -1.31 6.2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.50 83.7 83.7 83.7 84 84.3 percent [+]
Construction Output 1.40 -1.2 2.7 1.5 0.8 5.4 percent [+]
Housing Starts 3.90 5.1 6.6 6.9 17.2 20.1 Million Sq Meter [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy. 3/27/2017