Russia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.6 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.9 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 9.75 9 9 8.5 8 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 10171.00 9600 9500 13200 7720 12300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 19.4 19.4 19.4 21.2 24 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 56.88 56.93 57.5 59.19 58.62 67.64 [+]
Stock Market 2026.92 1990 1970 1910 1930 1610 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.74 8.02 8.1 8.18 8.26 9.53 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.30 0.9 1.3 1.5 1 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 1331.20 1400 1420 1450 1510 1640 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16668.00 14821 16054 16818 13726 17742 RUB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4223.10 2530 2780 4440 1920 4800 RUB Billion [+]
GDP per capita 11038.82 11860 11860 11860 12060 12180 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23895.34 24285 24367 24448 24901 25945 USD [+]
Gross National Product 65166840.30 7800000 7800000 7800000 85900000 101500000 RUB Million [+]
GDP From Agriculture 617.30 420 1100 700 350 1000 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 1283.90 840 1060 1290 590 1410 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1997.80 1840 1860 2020 1790 2260 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1263.10 1310 1290 1340 1400 1470 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 874.30 900 890 900 920 1030 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 1126.80 1050 1120 1140 960 1290 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 507.40 400 400 530 550 640 RUB Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.6 6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 71.30 72.8 73.2 73 71.8 72.7 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 4.10 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 Million [+]
Employment Rate 64.70 66 66.1 65.8 65.2 66 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 68.50 69.8 69.7 69.8 69.4 69.7 percent [+]
Productivity 0.90 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.44 2 percent [+]
Job Offers 1248266.00 1424995 1412982 1329953 1242007 1680370 Persons [+]
Wages 37640.00 40008 38210 49506 39500 55000 RUB/Month [+]
Wage Growth 101.50 101 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 35603.00 36072 38000 42100 39500 48900 RUB/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 7500.00 7500 8900 8900 8900 10100 RUB/Month [+]
Population 146.50 148 148 148 152 155 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 57 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Living Wage Family 33965.10 35700 35900 36000 36700 40000 RUB/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 35518.60 36000 36100 36300 36500 39200 RUB/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 38600.00 41000 41000 41000 42800 45700 RUB/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 13100.00 14000 15290 15728 16450 20984 RUB/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.30 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.9 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 542.90 555 558 565 574 649 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.20 100 100 101 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.50 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 144.45 148 150 153 155 172 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 634.00 660 674 688 705 797 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 11.30 9.2 11.8 12.5 10.2 4.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.10 3.5 3 3.4 3.9 4.2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 9.75 9 9 8.5 8 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.82 10 9 9 8.5 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7587.40 7800 7900 8000 8090 8700 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 17509.64 18500 19300 20000 21200 31400 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 38475.20 40500 41000 42300 43000 52200 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 397907.00 401000 403000 406549 407000 420000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1801.40 2210 2200 2343 2500 3340 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 22051620.00 22176293 22264003 22346828 22425447 23065061 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 8 8 8 7 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7 7 7 7 8 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 10171.00 9600 9500 13200 7720 12300 USD Million [+]
Exports 25753.00 28645 29550 35441 28800 44100 USD Million [+]
Imports 15582.00 19086 20071 22208 21080 31800 USD Million [+]
Current Account 22800.00 13200 10700 14800 24500 22000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2 2 2 2.1 2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 529.70 527 525 522 538 628 USD Billion [+]
Capital Flows 7140.13 10200 8800 6860 10100 14200 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1615.22 1718 1769 1819 1804 2370 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 10830.00 10400 10500 10600 10500 10800 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 4478.00 4800 4600 5130 4200 5920 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 [+]
Weapons Sales 5483.00 6500 6500 6500 7000 8500 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 21202.00 5600 18500 24580 7800 9690 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 19.4 19.4 19.4 21.2 24 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.70 -3 -3 -3 -2.8 -1.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -274.21 -1273686 -1924088 -3922240 -2610258 -6174209 RUB Million [+]
Government Spending 2686.80 2700 2720 2700 2825 2840 RUB Billion [+]
Government Revenues 3951076.70 15025824 22668209 31908723 5917091 46441232 RUB Million [+]
Government Debt 11109.80 12225 125224 12963 13200 18168 RUB Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 3928214.60 16299510 24592297 35830963 8527349 52615441 RUB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 91080.90 97919 97919 97919 100654 107654 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence -1.00 -2 1 2 -1 4 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.40 51.1 50.4 50.8 51.3 53.5 [+]
Services PMI 56.60 54.2 55 52.7 53.3 54 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.80 0.4 3.1 2.2 2.4 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 12.70 2 2.1 7.4 9.8 6.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.00 0.2 2.8 1.8 2.1 4.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 63.00 63.6 64 64 64 64.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -612.50 -220 1800 -1320 -62 -737 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 137894.00 120000 124000 148000 122000 198000 [+]
Car Production 98.20 95 101 95 101 158 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 137894.00 123000 126000 146000 140000 198000 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.60 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.6 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.20 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.1 4.2 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 61.50 61.4 60.8 60.2 61.28 62 [+]
Steel Production 5585.00 5790 5900 6056 6060 6095 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 2.70 6.5 6 3.3 3.8 3.8 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.51 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.78 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 43 44 43 42 39 [+]
Composite Pmi 56.30 54.8 53.9 55 53.3 53.6 [+]
Bankruptcies 2870.00 3500 2000 3110 3800 3090 Legal entities [+]
Corporate Profits 1649.40 7600 9300 15200 1300 21070 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 33 33 33 35 40 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 131.00 110 123 108 105 100 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 45 45 45 38 33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -15.00 -12 -10 -8 -9 -4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 7.90 1 -0.6 21 5.8 22.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.40 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.1 5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 7866.00 7020 7600 8100 7000 9160 RUB Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 10612841.00 10600000 10800000 11000000 11200000 12000000 RUB Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 32664461.00 32772804 32858604 32939236 33014230 33558549 RUB Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 11.65 10.7 10.5 9.5 9.3 7.5 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 68.30 74 77 75 70.39 89 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.69 0.73 0.75 0.78 0.8 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index -0.30 3.38 2.2 -1.31 4.7 6.2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.50 83.7 83.7 84 84.2 84.3 percent [+]
Construction Output -5.00 -2 1.5 0.8 2.9 5.4 percent [+]
Housing Starts 4.90 6.6 6.9 17.2 5.3 20.1 Million Sq Meter [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]