Russia | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.10 6.1 6 5.8 5.5 5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 10.00 10 9.5 9 9 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 7383.00 8114 9805 5700 10064 18300 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 18.2 19.4 19.4 19.4 24 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 64.09 65.46 66.11 66.75 67.4 77.77 [+]
Stock Market 2128.99 2020 2000 1980 1960 1630 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 8.76 8.9 8.99 9.07 9.16 10.57 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.57 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate -0.40 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.2 percent [+]
GDP 1326.02 1370 1390 1400 1420 1640 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14522.10 16200 13600 14400 15740 17500 RUB Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2434.10 4200 1620 2300 2580 5000 RUB Billion [+]
GDP per capita 11038.82 11760 11860 11860 11860 12180 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23895.34 24122 24203 24285 24367 25945 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 344.60 645 230 370 1050 833 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 783.00 1230 540 820 1005 1328 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 1780.10 1930 1537 1770 1700 2000 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 1215.60 1280 1279 1208 1285 1410 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 830.00 847 855 857 850 890 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 1007.30 1080 945 1020 1080 1137 RUB Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 370.50 490 480 375 360 527 RUB Billion [+]
Gross National Product 58745032.70 56900000 6000000 6000000 6000000 67500000 RUB Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 6.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 72.50 72.4 72.1 72.8 73.2 72.7 Million [+]
Unemployed Persons 4.10 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.7 Million [+]
Employment Rate 65.80 65.5 65.2 66 66.1 65.72 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.50 69.4 69.2 69.8 69.7 69.8 percent [+]
Productivity 0.90 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Job Offers 1359533.00 1366287 1358430 1382641 1412982 1680370 Persons [+]
Wages 36200.00 42900 38808 40008 38210 46000 RUB/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 34532.00 39100 35200 36072 35000 48900 RUB/Month [+]
Wage Growth 102.00 102 100 101 102 102 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 7500.00 7500 7500 7500 8900 10100 RUB/Month [+]
Population 146.30 148 148 149 149 155 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 55.00 55 55 55 55 57 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 62 [+]
Living Wage Family 21900.00 22300 22500 22700 22900 28000 RUB/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 11900.00 12100 12500 12700 12900 15500 RUB/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 13100.00 14000 14000 14000 15290 20984 RUB/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 38600.00 40000 40500 41000 41000 45700 RUB/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 6.10 6.1 6 5.8 5.5 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 533.20 540 550 556 560 652 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.50 101 101 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 6.40 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 137.58 142 144 146 149 166 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 603.70 615 631 631 604 672 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.10 5.1 2.5 2.7 3 4.1 percent [+]
Food Inflation 5.50 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.2 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 10.00 10 9.5 9 9 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.09 10.5 10 10 9 6.3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7339.00 7490 7600 7700 7800 8600 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16663.90 18400 19400 20500 21300 31400 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 36857.60 38700 39700 40500 41000 52200 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 390741.00 397000 399000 401000 403000 420000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2036.50 1900 2010 2110 2200 3340 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21954769.00 22215327 22411512 22597821 22775333 24445993 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 9 8 8 8 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 8 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 7383.00 8114 9805 5700 10064 18300 USD Million [+]
Exports 25037.00 26811 25955 21432 27496 44100 USD Million [+]
Imports 17654.00 18697 16150 15732 17433 25800 USD Million [+]
Current Account 1900.00 5280 9800 2800 3400 15000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 5.10 2.5 2 2 2 2.2 percent [+]
External Debt 516.10 510 520 527 525 628 USD Billion [+]
Capital Flows 4000.00 6308 9800 10200 8800 14200 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 1542.66 1586 1629 1671 1713 2187 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 10316.00 10500 10100 10400 10500 10800 BBL/D/1K [+]
Remittances 4637.00 4260 3960 4000 3700 5920 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 5.43 6.5 6.5 6.8 5.46 6.5 [+]
Weapons Sales 5483.00 6127 5992 5857 6200 8554 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7115.00 1000 3149 3466 -220 5690 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.70 18.2 19.4 19.4 19.4 24 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -3.2 -3 -3 -3 -1.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1119042.50 -600000 -600000 -600000 -1045124 -1288399 RUB Million [+]
Government Spending 2742.90 2780 2780 2800 2820 3140 RUB Billion [+]
Government Revenues 19374538.50 25000000 6100000 6100000 13619048 33100000 RUB Million [+]
Government Debt 10632.70 11230 11124 12225 125224 18168 RUB Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 20493581.00 28000000 6410000 13800000 20600000 32900000 RUB Million [+]
Military Expenditure 91080.90 95109 97508 97919 97919 107654 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence -7.00 -8 -7 -4 -2 4 [+]
Services PMI 52.70 51.8 52.3 53 53.6 54 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.60 51.5 50.8 50.4 51 52.1 [+]
Industrial Production -0.20 -0.2 0.9 1.2 1.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.80 6.6 9.1 2 2.1 6.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.80 -0.7 0.3 0.9 1.5 4.8 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 64.00 63.8 64 63.6 64 64.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 65.00 -1500 -85.44 -220 1800 -737 RUB Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 126658.00 -9 117000 120000 124000 198000 [+]
Car Production 103.00 85 97 95 101 158 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 126658.00 120000 115000 117000 122000 198000 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.50 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production 0.80 1.9 1.8 2 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 61.50 59.1 62 61.4 60.8 62 [+]
Steel Production 5942.00 6043 6036 5881 5900 6095 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 5.70 2.8 3.4 6.5 6 3.8 Millions of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.51 4.41 4.41 4.5 4.5 4.78 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 43.00 45 43 43 43 39 [+]
Bankruptcies 1112.00 1170 1030 1200 1000 1090 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 8171.40 9790 3750 5300 7000 15070 RUB Billion [+]
Corruption Index 29.00 31 33 33 33 40 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 119.00 115 110 110 143 100 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 40.00 40 45 45 45 33 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence -19.00 -17 -15 -13 -15 -4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 19.1 4.1 0.8 -2 22.8 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -4.40 -2.8 0.8 1 1.2 5.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 7111.10 7880 6900 7470 7600 9160 RUB Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 10492033.00 10400000 10500000 10600000 10800000 12000000 RUB Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 32446800.00 32842602 33101735 33341975 33565261 35373206 RUB Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 12.21 12 11.1 10.7 10.5 7.5 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 68.30 72 73 74 77 89 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.6 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.69 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index -0.30 -1.31 -0.09 1.11 2.2 6.2 percent [+]
Construction Output -0.80 -3.9 -2 0.3 0.5 5.4 percent [+]
Housing Starts 6.10 16.8 5 7 7.1 20.1 Million Sq Meter [+]
Home Ownership Rate 83.50 83.3 83.7 83.7 83.7 84.3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00 13 13 13 13 13 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy. 12/3/2016