Russia Interest Rate  2003-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The Central Bank of Russia left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.5 percent on July 29th, after a 50 bps cut in the previous month, saying the decline in inflation expectations has stalled and that the maintenance of a moderately tight monetary policy would help bring inflation back to target. Policymakers also said a rate cut could be considered in the next meetings if inflationary risks fall further. Annual inflation rate increased to 7.5 percent in June from a two-year low of 7.3 percent in the previous month. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.12 percent from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010. Interest Rate in Russia is reported by the Central Bank of Russia.

Russia Interest Rate
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Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
10.50 10.50 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2016 percent Daily
In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2016.


Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2016-04-29 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 11% 11% 11% 11%
2016-06-10 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5% 11% 10.5% 10.5%
2016-07-29 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
2016-09-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5% 10.0%
2016-10-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9.5%
2016-12-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9.5%

Russia Cuts Key Interest Rate to 10.5%


The Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bps to 10.5 percent on June 10th, as widely expected, saying inflation expectations continued to decrease amid an economic recession. Policymakers also said a rate cut could be considered in next meetings if inflationary risks fall further and projected the annual inflation will reach the 4 percent target in late 2017.

Information Notice of Bank of Russia:
First. There is more confidence in steadily positive trends in the inflation dynamics. Consumer prices grew less than predicted. The annual inflation has stabilised at 7.3% and the annualised monthly inflation, seasonally adjusted, is about 5%. Inflation expectations of households and businesses continue to decrease. The situation in the global commodity markets was more favourable than expected and contributed to the inflation slowdown through the ruble exchange rate and food price movements (these factors’ influence is temporary and is subject to decrease, which is considered in the inflation forecast). The Bank of Russia marked down its inflation forecast for the end of 2016, to 5-6%. Considering the decision just made and retaining the current monetary policy stance, the annual inflation will be less than 5% in May 2017 to reach the 4% target in late 2017.

Second. Positive trends in the economy are not accompanied by a higher inflationary pressure. The figures of the GDP dynamics in 2016 Q1 and macroeconomic indicators for April confirm greater sustainability of the Russian economy to oil price fluctuations. Import substitution and non-commodity exports continue to expand and additional growth areas in manufacturing are taking shape. However, the changes in economic dynamics vary across the industries and regions. Investments continue to show a downward trend and a wide range of industries experience stagnation, including those that have traditionally been the sources of growth for the Russian economy. Yet positive shifts in the economy anticipate the beginning of its growth recovery. Quarterly GDP growth is expected no later than 2016 H2. The forecast predicts a GDP increase of 1.3% in 2017 and annual growth rate for output of goods and services remaining low in the following years. The forecast is based on a fairly conservative estimate of the annual average oil price, which is approximately $40 per barrel over the three-year horizon.

Third. Monetary conditions will still be moderately tight, despite a slight easing due to the lowering banking sector liquidity deficit. Real interest rates in the economy (adjusted for inflation expectations) will remain at the level that encourages savings and allows for demand for loans that does not cause an increase in inflationary pressure. In order to ensure operational control over the level and structure of market interest rates in the context of the emerging transition to the banking sector liquidity surplus, the Bank of Russia is ready to take a set of measures designed to mop up liquidity.

Fourth. The risks that inflation will not reach the target of 4% in 2017 declined, but still remain at a heightened level. The materialisation of these risks might cause a slowdown in the inflation reduction.

The Bank of Russia will consider the possibility of a further rate cut based on estimates for inflation risks and alignment of inflation decline with the forecast trajectory.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
6/10/2016 11:55:57 AM

Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 10.50 10.50 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.63 11.54 190.89 3.99 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7372.00 7295.90 7372.00 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 17050.30 16878.51 17050.30 106.31 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 36487.20 36251.60 36487.20 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 392756.00 387716.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1360.70 1377.30 2177.40 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21654394.00 21504455.00 21654394.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.04 5.59 101.96 3.79 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 6.25 10.00 0.50 percent [+]




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