Russia Interest Rate  2003-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The Bank of Russia left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 11 percent on January 29th 2016 as another oil price slump sent the ruble to fresh record lows of 85 per USD last week thus increasing inflation risks. The inflation rate declined to 12.9 percent in December after being above 15 percent for most of 2015, but it is still far from the central bank's 4 percent target. The policymakers estimate annual inflation to drop below 7 percent as early as January 2017 so it reaches the target by late 2017. However, if inflation risks amplify, the Bank of Russia cannot rule out a tightening of its monetary policy. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7 percent from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010. Interest Rate in Russia is reported by the Central Bank of Russia.

Russia Interest Rate
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Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
11.00 11.00 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2016 percent Daily
In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2016.


Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2015-10-30 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 11% 11% 11% 11%
2015-12-11 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 11% 11% 11% 10.5%
2016-01-29 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 11% 11% 11% 11%
2016-03-18 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5%
2016-04-29 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5%
2016-06-10 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10%

Russia Keeps Key Rate on Hold at 11%


The Bank of Russia left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 11 percent on January 29th 2016 as another oil price slump sent the ruble to fresh record lows of 85 per USD last week thus increasing inflation risks. The inflation rate declined to 12.9 percent in December after being above 15 percent for most of 2015, but it is still far from the central bank's 4 percent target. The policymakers estimate annual inflation to drop below 7 percent as early as January 2017 so it reaches the target by late 2017. However, if inflation risks amplify, the Bank of Russia cannot rule out a tightening of its monetary policy.

Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

The time period since the Bank of Russia Board meeting in December saw risks to price stability escalating. The stubborn glut of oil, the slowing Chinese economy, combined with the US Federal Reserve rate hike, have triggered a further drop in the price of crude. This, in its turn, caused the national currencies to weaken and asset prices to drop in emerging markets, affecting Russia. With more volatility in oil prices, the magnitude of variation in Russian financial asset prices and the ruble exchange rate fluctuation has increased.

The recent weakening of the ruble is putting pro-inflationary pressure and causes inflation expectations to grow, despite a slowdown in annual inflation. According to Bank of Russia estimates, the annual growth rate of consumer prices is set to drop from 12.9% for December 2015 to approximately 10% for January 2016. This slowdown in annual inflation is in line with the previous forecasts. The Bank of Russia expects consumer prices in 1Q 2016 to grow 8-9% against the same period last year. There are risks that inflation in 2Q 2016 may accelerate, caused by, among other factors, the low base effect. Thereafter, annual consumer price growth rate is set to resume its decline. This should occur on the back of, inter alia, reduced inflation expectations and the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy. According to the Bank of Russia estimate, on the strength of today’s decision, inflation is set to decrease to a point below 7% as early as January 2017 so it reaches the 4% target by late 2017. However, the risks have grown that inflation may deviate from the target in late 2017.

The key rate decision has been made in recognition of the current economic situation, with elevated risks of continued recession provoked by falling oil prices. The high debt load of Russian companies and interest rate risks for banks and their borrowers have also been factored in.

In 2016-2017, oil prices are likely to be lower than forecast previously in the baseline scenario. The floating exchange rate will partially offset the negative impact of energy prices on the economy. However, the balance of payments and the economy will have to be further adjusted to lower global prices for the key Russian exports. This will result in a more sizable GDP contraction in 2016 than forecast previously in the baseline scenario. The additional adjustment may take several quarters. The GDP growth rate will enter positive territory in 2017, but will be low.

However, should oil prices remain persistently low, this will further escalate inflation and financial stability risks and will require a more extensive adjustment of the economy to the new conditions. A continued persistence of high inflation expectations may also hamper the slowdown of consumer price growth. A well-balanced fiscal policy will be required to mitigate these risks in the medium term.

Should inflation risks amplify, the Bank of Russia cannot rule out a tightening of its monetary policy.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com
1/29/2016 11:31:27 AM

Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 11.00 11.00 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.68 11.73 190.89 3.99 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7239.10 6786.60 7239.10 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16575.20 15309.10 16575.20 106.31 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 35785.50 33315.40 35785.50 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 371559.00 368399.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 957.90 1276.70 2101.50 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21423025.00 21322578.00 21423025.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.04 5.59 101.96 3.79 percent [+]




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