Russia Interest Rate  2003-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10 percent on December 16th, as widely expected, and signaled the possibility of further cuts in the first half of 2017. Policymakers also said that the dynamics of inflation and economic activity were overall in line with the forecast and inflation risks have subsided somewhat. Consumer prices growth was slowing down in part under the influence of temporary factors, while deceleration in inflation expectations remains unsteady. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.17 percent from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17.00 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5.00 percent in June of 2010.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2016-09-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10.5% 10% 10%
2016-10-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10% 10% 10%
2016-12-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10% 10% 10%
2017-02-03 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10% 10%
2017-03-24 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9%
2017-04-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9%




Russia Holds Key Rate at 10%


The Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10 percent on December 16th and signaled the possibility of further cuts in the first half of 2017. Policymakers also said that the dynamics of inflation and economic activity were overall in line with the forecast and inflation risks have subsided somewhat. Consumer prices growth was slowing down in part under the influence of temporary factors, while deceleration in inflation expectations remains unsteady.

Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

Inflation dynamics. Annual inflation continues to decline in line with the Bank of Russia’s baseline forecast. However, this is partly due to temporary factors. According to estimates, as of 12 December 2016 annual price growth fell to 5.6% from 6.1% in October. Price growth has slowed down noticeably in all key groups of goods and services and monthly seasonally adjusted inflation indicators have declined as well. The ruble exchange rate dynamics continues to be conducive to inflation deceleration as oil prices have been higher than expected and Russian financial assets remain attractive to external investors. A good harvest still facilitates a reduction in food inflation. At the same time, a more confident drop in non-food price growth is necessary for sustainable inflation decline. Households prefer to stick to a savings behaviour model, however, the disinflationary impact of domestic demand is subsiding gradually. Annual growth in real wages may facilitate a gradual recovery of demand for goods and services. Moderately tight monetary conditions need to be maintained in order to encourage households to save and set the trend towards sustainable inflation reduction under the impact of the demand-side constraints. This will enable a further decline in inflation expectations of both households and businesses. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, given the decision made annual inflation will slow to the 4% target in late 2017.

Monetary conditions. Moderately tight monetary conditions are still conducive to inflation reduction. Positive real interest rates will be kept at the level which will ensure demand for loans without an intensification of inflationary pressure and will also preserve incentives for savings. The potential of interest rate reduction is limited in the near future.

Economic activity. The economy is progressing towards recovery in line with the Bank of Russia’s baseline forecast. The estimates show that quarter-on-quarter GDP was no longer in decline in Q3 and industrial production expanded in October—November. However, the rebound in economic activity is still heterogeneous among industries and regions. Import substitution is advancing together with certain non-commodity exports and new lines of industrial growth, including the high-tech development. Business activity in services is also on the rise. Positive trends will take time to evolve and take hold. By the end of 2016, the output of goods and services will decrease by 0.5-0.7% with a slight growth in quarterly GDP to be seen in Q4. We expect moderate economic growth of less than 1% in 2017 and an increase to 1.5-2% in 2018-2019. The labour market is adapting to the new economic conditions and unemployment remains persistently low. The forecast is based on conservative assumptions about sluggish global growth, year-average oil prices of $40 per barrel for the entire forecast horizon, moderate capital outflow and structural constraints in the Russian economy.

Inflation risks. Risks that inflation fails to achieve the 4% target in 2017 have subsided somewhat. These risks stem largely from the inertia of inflation expectations and a decrease in household propensity to save. Price volatility in global commodity and financial markets may also have an adverse impact on exchange rate and inflation expectations. Approving of conservative budget consolidation strategy, including moderate indexation of wages and pensions in the medium-term horizon, makes an uncertainty and inflation risks from fiscal policy subside. At the same time, these risks might increase if government spending rise in higher oil price scenario.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com
12/16/2016 10:41:59 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 10.00 10.00 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.43 11.09 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7317.20 7339.00 7462.00 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16584.37 16494.85 17050.30 106.31 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 36433.60 36857.60 36917.80 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 377741.00 385288.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1948.40 1945.50 2634.30 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21922610.00 21915032.00 21954769.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 6.04 101.96 3.79 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]



Russia Interest Rate Notes

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2017.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
10.00 10.00 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2016 percent Daily



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