Russia Interest Rate  2003-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10 percent on October 28th and signaled the rate will be maintained till end-2016 with further cuts possible in 2017 Q1-Q2. Policymakers also said the dynamics of inflation and economic activity were overall in line with the forecast. At the same time, inflation is slowing down to a great extent on the back of temporary factors, while deceleration in inflation expectations remains unsteady. Annual growth in consumer prices is set to total less than 4.5 percent for October 2017, dropping to the target level of 4 percent by the end of 2017. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.17 percent from 2003 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 17.00 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5.00 percent in June of 2010.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2016-07-29 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
2016-09-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10.5% 10% 10%
2016-10-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10% 10% 10%
2016-12-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10% 10% 10%
2017-01-30 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision
2017-03-17 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision




Russia Holds Key Rate at 10%


The Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10 percent on October 28th and signaled the rate will be maintained till end-2016 with its further possible cuts in 2017 Q1-Q2. Policymakers also said the dynamics of inflation and economic activity were overall in line with the forecast. At the same time, inflation is slowing down to a great extent on the back of temporary factors, while deceleration in inflation expectations remains unsteady. Annual growth in consumer prices is set to total less than 4.5 percent for October 2017, dropping to the target level of 4 percent by the end of 2017.

Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

First.  Annual inflation continues its decline in line with the Bank of Russia’s baseline forecast; however, this is largely due to temporary factors. Estimates as of 24 October indicate that annual consumer price growth was down to 6.2% from 6.4% seen in September. A meaningful contribution to the inflation reduction is made by the performance of the ruble exchange rate as oil prices have been higher than expected and Russian financial assets are becoming more attractive to external investors. Also, the good harvest helped lower food price growth. The disinflationary impact of domestic demand is however going down, which translates into slower deceleration of non-food product prices. Households have thus far been abiding by a saving-oriented model of behaviour. However, tentative signs of rising real wages may contribute to a gradual recovery in demand for goods and services. The key rate held at the current level long enough is expected to determine monetary conditions further on, which are critical to support incentives to save and shore up the trend towards sustainable inflation reduction, impacted by demand-side constraints. This will enable a further decline in inflation expectations. 

Second.The level of interest rates in the financial market is responsible for moderately tight monetary conditions, expected to remain in the economy long enough. Positive real interest rates will be held at a level which, while securing demand for credit, will exclude heightened inflationary pressure and keep incentives to save. Tentative signs of recovery in consumer lending do not bear substantial inflation risks so far given that a considerable part of current loans is used to refinance previously extended loans.

Third.The revival of production remains unstable and varies across industries and regions. The Bank of Russia estimates that moderately tight monetary conditions do not hinder economic recovery, with structural factors being the main restrictions. The labour market is adjusting to the new economic environment, and unemployment remains stable and low. Import substitution is progressing and certain items of non-commodity exports show an upward trend. Industry, including high-tech production, finds new growth factors. However, they are still unable to ensure that overall production dynamics remains sustainably positive. At the same time, individual industries are stagnant or show lower output growth. The emerging signs of recovery in investment activity are persistently weak. Positive trends need time to develop and root. The year 2016 will see an overall 0.5-0.7% drop in the output of goods and services, while the fourth quarter is expected to post a slight quarterly growth. In 2017, economic growth will be low (under 1%). This forecast is based on conservative assumptions about low growth of the global economy, average oil prices of about $40 per barrel, moderate capital outflow, and persistent structural restrictions of Russian economic development.

Fourth. Risks remain that the 4% inflation target may not be reached in 2017. This mainly results from inertial inflation expectations, possible weakening of households’ propensity to save, and higher real wages not supported with a rise in labour productivity. No legislative decision has yet been taken with regard to specific medium-term fiscal consolidation measures, including the indexation of wages in the public sector and social benefits. Volatility of global commodity and financial markets may also have a negative impact on exchange rate and inflation expectations.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com
10/28/2016 10:46:02 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 10.00 10.00 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 11.09 10.70 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7339.00 7412.10 7462.00 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 16663.90 16827.51 17050.30 106.31 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 36857.60 36917.80 36917.80 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 390741.00 397743.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1831.70 2036.50 2559.00 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21954769.00 21920598.00 21954769.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 6.04 101.96 3.79 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]



Russia Interest Rate Notes

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2016.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
10.00 10.00 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2016 percent Daily



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