Russia Interest Rate  2003-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50 bps to 9.25 percent on April 28th, while markets expected 25 bps rate cut. Policymakers signaled the possibility of further cuts in the second and third quarters this year, as inflation continued to decline and is projected to reach 4 percent target before the end of 2017. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.23 percent from 2003 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus Forecast (i)
2017-02-03 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 10.00% 10% 10% 10%
2017-03-24 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9.75% 10% 10% 9.5%
2017-04-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9.25% 9.75% 9.5% 9.5%
2017-06-16 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9.25% 9%
2017-07-28 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9%
2017-09-15 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 9%




Russia Cuts Key Rate To 9.25%


The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50 bps to 9.25 percent on April 28th, while markets expected 25 bps rate cut. Policymakers signaled the possibility of further cuts in the second and third quarters this year, as inflation continued to decline and is projected to reach 4 percent target before the end of 2017.

Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

Annual inflation has moved close to the target level. Annual consumer price growth is down to 4.3% from 4.6% in February. Inflation slowdown was broadly facilitated by the ruble appreciation amid relatively higher oil prices, persistent interest in investment in Russian assets among external investors, and a drop in the sovereign risk premium. These months saw food inflation unusually low for this period, supported by the high level of supply including bumper harvests of 2015-2016.

Domestic demand continues to exert a disinflationary effect. Households broadly tend to demonstrate savings behaviour patterns. There are signs of nascent recovery in consumer activity. Consumer expenditures are expected to restore gradually as real disposable incomes continue to show weak growth. 

In order to maintain the propensity to save and anchor sustainable inflation slowdown driven by demand-side restrictions, monetary conditions should remain moderately tight. Positive real interest rates are held at the level which ensures demand for loans without increasing inflationary pressure and upholds incentives for saving. A gradual decline in nominal interest rates and the easing of non-price bank lending conditions will remain. Given banks’ conservative policy stance, these trends will mostly influence high-quality borrowers.

The Bank estimates that the economy continued to recover in the first quarter and expects fixed capital investments to increase. Industrial production is maintaining positive dynamics and unemployment is showing a downward trend. The labour market is adjusting to the new economic environment, with signs beginning to emerge that labour shortages are finding their way in individual segments. According to the estimates, the observed annual rise in real wages will foster gradual growth in consumer activity without posing additional proinflationary pressure amid increased supply of goods and services.

Given the current recovery dynamics and the economy’s growing resilience to the fluctuations in the external economic climate, the Bank of Russia expects that the GDP will grow in 2017-2019 even if the conservative oil price scenario materialises.

Possible volatility of global commodity and financial markets caused, among other things, by negotiations between oil exporting countries to extend agreements on limiting oil production may become the key source of inflation risks in the near future. It may result in a temporary hike in volatility of capital flows and the exchange rate undermining exchange rate and inflation expectations. That said, inflation risks will be lower in the scenario with rising oil prices. Legislative consolidation of a budget rule will also mitigate medium-term inflation risks.

In making its decision on the key rate, the Bank of Russia will assess the probability of the baseline scenario implementation (where oil prices drop to $40 per barrel) and the scenario with rising oil prices, alongside with assessing inflation and the economy dynamics relative to the forecast. The Bank’s assessment of the overall potential of the key rate reduction before the end of 2017 is unchanged. Given the decision taken and moderately tight monetary policy sustained, the Bank of Russia forecasts that the annual consumer price growth will reduce to 4% before the end of 2017 and will remain within this target level in 2018-2019.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com
4/28/2017 11:16:17 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 9.25 9.75 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 10.58 10.82 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7610.30 7587.40 7714.70 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 17305.91 17509.64 17642.32 106.31 RUB Million [+]
Money Supply M2 38555.20 38475.20 38555.20 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 400998.00 397907.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1821.50 1930.90 2698.50 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 22180762.00 22051620.00 22180762.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 9.19 6.04 101.96 3.79 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00 7.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]


Russia Interest Rate Notes

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2017.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
9.25 9.75 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2017 percent Daily



interest rate by Country

Last
Brazil 11.25 Apr/17
Russia 9.25 Apr/17
Turkey 8.00 Apr/17
Mexico 6.75 May/17
India 6.25 Apr/17
Indonesia 4.75 May/17
China 4.35 Apr/17
Australia 1.50 May/17
South Korea 1.25 Apr/17
United States 1.00 May/17
Canada 0.50 Apr/17
United Kingdom 0.25 May/17
Euro Area 0.00 May/17
France 0.00 May/17
Germany 0.00 May/17
Italy 0.00 May/17
Netherlands 0.00 May/17
Spain 0.00 May/17
Japan -0.10 Apr/17
Switzerland -0.75 May/17