Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.9 4 4 4.1 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 18700.00 26400 23900 23100 23200 11400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 71.20 69.2 68.7 67.8 66.8 59.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.06 1.02 1.01 1 1.04 0.83 [+]
Stock Market 11827.62 11200 11100 11000 10900 9180 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.30 0.45 0.52 0.56 0.62 0.3 percent [+]
30 Year Bond Yield 1.08 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 1.09 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 3363.45 3650 3680 3720 3890 4370 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 713.11 714 716 718 720 741 EUR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 798.82 802 804 806 808 821 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 140.39 142 144 146 149 157 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 45408.31 45800 45900 46003 46200 47200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44187.86 45100 45200 45400 45600 46600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4.56 4.31 4.56 4.62 4.16 3.65 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 36.19 29.6 34.6 37.9 40.8 44.9 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 160.92 161 162 163 164 170 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 128.52 135 137 138 141 150 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 113.27 114 116 118 120 130 EUR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90 3.9 4 4 4.1 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 43475.00 43496 43521 43547 43596 44900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2777.39 2760 2770 2780 2800 3010 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -26.00 3 5 10 5 15 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.70 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 110.47 113 115 116 118 126 Index Points [+]
Productivity 102.60 105 105 106 107 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 646.99 652 644 638 623 599 Thousand [+]
Wages 3716.00 3750 3790 3820 3860 4110 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 175.90 110 111 112 113 126 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 1.80 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9 3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.84 10.5 EUR/Hour [+]
Population 82.18 82.47 82.54 82.66 82.88 83.31 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.30 65.45 65.45 65.45 65.45 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.30 65.45 65.45 65.45 65.45 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 75.00 75 75.1 75.2 75.4 73.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 29203.90 29500 29700 29800 29900 30200 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 10700.90 10800 10900 11000 11100 11500 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.50 60.9 61.1 61.2 61.4 64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.60 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.10 110 111 113 115 126 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.00 103 104 105 107 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.10 110 112 114 116 125 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.49 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 104.10 105 106 107 108 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.40 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 percent [+]
Export Prices 105.20 103 104 104 105 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 101.30 99.8 100 101 101 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 107.10 108 109 110 111 122 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.24 -0.32 -0.08 0.15 1.89 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1912.50 1950 2020 2070 2100 2400 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2756.20 2800 2840 2880 2910 3540 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2797.20 2880 2980 3020 3140 4510 EUR Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7954742.00 8170000 8230000 8450000 8620000 10200000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 177256.00 172000 172000 171000 170000 181000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1341.05 1390 1400 1410 1420 1700 EUR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1392.70 1900 2200 2410 2690 6680 EUR Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 149.75 149 148 146 144 132 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 18700.00 26400 23900 23100 23200 11400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 97400.00 108000 106000 106400 106300 91300 EUR Million [+]
Imports 78700.00 81500 81700 83300 74700 79900 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 24000.00 23400 22200 22743 19400 15400 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4774547.00 4970000 5060000 5150000 5290000 5790000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.80 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.2 percent [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -7642.92 2273 3261 3500 3460 2130 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 25319.37 20500 21100 21500 19000 14800 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3377.94 3400 3400 3400 3400 3400 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2049.00 1989 2041 2093 2084 1716 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 34970.00 36200 36200 36200 36200 41100 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 71.20 69.2 68.7 67.8 66.8 59.8 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.60 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 24.30 -11 31 3 16 9 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 138.84 141 142 144 145 157 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.90 44.6 44.5 44.4 44.2 43.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 339.20 311 343 339 367 391 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 1811954.90 1840000 1850000 1870000 1880000 1910000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 314.90 322 312 336 351 382 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 18965.00 69869 65440 72930 45600 17400 [+]
Military Expenditure 47045.50 46182 46822 47462 47737 49301 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 109.80 110 108 106 106 104 [+]
Services PMI 53.40 53 52.2 51.1 51.4 53.3 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.40 54.4 53.8 52.2 51.8 53.9 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.80 54.4 54.1 53 52.9 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.70 0.9 1 -0.6 1.3 0.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -3.00 -1 0.5 -0.9 0.8 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.90 1 1.4 -2 2.2 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 86.00 84.6 84.7 84.8 84.9 83.7 percent [+]
New Orders 118.40 109 108 106 104 113 Index Points [+]
Factory Orders 5.20 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6.84 -4.29 -3.54 -3.21 -3.08 -3.24 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1677.00 1890 1970 1810 1870 1750 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 182.62 185 187 193 197 235 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 10.40 15.1 12.2 8.6 9 25.3 [+]
Car Production 462900.00 518000 516000 535000 366000 373000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 241399.00 325000 317000 302000 252000 260000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.57 5.87 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 5.00 5 5 5 5 3 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 82 82 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 9 9 7 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 16 16 16 16 13 [+]
Mining Production 0.30 -1.5 -0.4 0.1 0.2 1.9 percent [+]
Steel Production 3230.13 3820 3780 3270 3000 3050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.20 10.1 9.2 8.7 8.9 9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.90 -0.8 -0.4 -1 0.7 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -1.10 1 0.8 1 1.6 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 392.37 394 395 396 397 400 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 464.16 467 469 472 476 508 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.60 9.8 9.9 11 9.8 8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 231488.00 240000 245000 237483 257000 298000 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2735689.00 2740000 2740000 2750000 2750000 2820000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.50 2.74 2.81 2.86 2.96 3.56 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.50 1.45 1.47 1.51 1.53 1.86 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 53.40 52.9 52.7 52.5 52.1 49.5 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 82.22 79.5 78.4 77.4 75.9 69.6 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output 0.40 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.5 1.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 135.91 137 138 139 140 155 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 27139.00 27600 24300 23400 23600 32700 [+]
Construction Pmi 52.00 51.6 52.4 52.2 52 51.6 [+]
Construction Orders 4.90 8.5 4.9 4.5 4.1 2.7 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.90 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.6 51 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 29.72 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 39.76 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 19.33 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 20.43 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy. 2/21/2017