Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Stock Market 9173.71 Apr-14 9434 May-14 9300 9382 9299 9242 9154 11830 13121 [+]
Currency 1.38 Apr-14 1.38 May-14 1.38 1.35 1.32 1.3 1.3 1.33 1.33 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.53 Apr-14 1.53 May-14 1.67 1.93 1.84 1.75 1.57 2.23 2.86 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP per capita 37479.11 Dec-12 37628 Dec-13 37670 37693 37714 37732 65307 192312 3644195 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 34765.90 Dec-12 35223 Dec-13 34933 34953 34969 34983 60535 178175 3376146 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 625.52 Nov-13 627 Mar-14 627 629 630 629 670 769 1144 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 109.72 Nov-13 110 Mar-14 110 111 111 111 109 110 110 [+]
Gross National Product 710.52 Nov-13 720 Mar-14 720 730 734 735 785 893 1325 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 Dec-13 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.62 0.68 0.41 0.46 2.86 2.86 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30 Dec-13 0.91 Mar-14 0.91 1.11 1.34 1.99 0.86 2.93 2.94 [+]
GDP 3399.60 Dec-12 3332 Dec-13 3244 3227 3214 3202 5486 16011 303336 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 81.84 Dec-12 81.97 Dec-13 81.95 81.97 81.99 82.01 82.08 82.36 82.65 [+]
Employed Persons 42003.00 Feb-14 42031 Mar-14 41975 42027 42078 42123 45167 51826 76595 [+]
Job Vacancies 447.10 Mar-14 452 Apr-14 457 473 464 418 447 610 448 [+]
Labour Costs 109.67 Nov-13 110 Mar-14 110 110 110 110 109 109 109 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30 Sep-13 2.36 Dec-13 2.36 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.4 5.41 6.91 [+]
Productivity 103.70 Jan-14 102 Feb-14 102 103 104 103 110 126 188 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.17 Jan-13 65.18 Dec-13 65.25 63 63 63 63 65 66 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.17 Jan-13 65.18 Dec-13 65.25 63 63 63 63 65 66 [+]
Unemployed Persons 3054.70 Mar-14 2944 Apr-14 3098 2730 2687 2751 2738 2850 2778 [+]
Wages 113.00 Jan-14 115 Feb-14 113 115 116 117 114 111 116 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 111.60 Jan-14 112 Feb-14 117 119 120 122 125 130 131 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.70 Feb-14 7.63 Mar-14 7.63 7.57 7.52 7.48 7.33 6.84 6.52 [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.10 Feb-14 4.9 Mar-14 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.5 5 5 6.5 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 106.70 Mar-14 106 Apr-14 107 107 107 107 115 129 152 [+]
Export Prices 104.00 Feb-14 104 Mar-14 104 104 104 103 104 104 104 [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 116.40 Mar-14 116 Apr-14 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Import Prices 104.70 Feb-14 105 Mar-14 105 104 104 103 105 104 104 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.34 Mar-14 0.14 Apr-14 0.3 0.14 0.14 0.66 0.67 2.47 3.97 [+]
Producer Prices 106.50 Feb-14 107 Mar-14 106 106 106 106 114 131 194 [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.93 Feb-14 -1.32 Mar-14 -1.32 -1.52 -1.53 -1.35 0.21 2.53 3.96 [+]
Inflation Rate 1.04 Mar-14 1.17 Apr-14 1 1.11 1.09 1.1 1.29 3.02 3.97 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.25 Apr-14 0.25 May-14 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.65 1.61 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 150614.59 Mar-14 149995 Mar-14 139992 130040 128515 125287 146543 169550 142398 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.32 Apr-14 0.25 May-14 0.01 0.26 0.54 0.58 0.71 1.37 2.69 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2547265.00 Feb-14 2544816 Mar-14 2517605 2484327 2451467 2424442 2327731 2201867 2200740 [+]
Money Supply M1 1462.00 Feb-14 1462 Mar-14 1465 1494 1509 1540 2671 7826 148566 [+]
Money Supply M2 2311.30 Feb-14 2316 Mar-14 2303 2321 2334 2332 3908 11816 224023 [+]
Money Supply M3 2336.90 Feb-14 2350 Mar-14 2294 2285 2274 2261 3568 11308 214301 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account to GDP 7.30 Dec-13 7.73 Jun-14 7.52 7.72 7.89 8.04 8.46 0.55 0.05 [+]
Capital Flows -25988.80 Feb-14 -22538 Feb-14 -22237 -22398 -21172 -24364 -24249 -16989 -11637 [+]
External Debt 653123.00 Mar-14 667485 Mar-14 653712 616050 604076 561515 466292 184233 29000 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 4269.73 Feb-14 8887 Feb-14 5308 4287 6079 5117 5219 5161 5161 [+]
Remittances -826.00 Aug-13 -861 Dec-13 -982 -737 -589 -491 -368 -295 -246 [+]
Current Account 13879.18 Feb-14 17558 Mar-14 20480 18640 18178 21718 21595 21620 21620 [+]
Balance of Trade 16264.00 Feb-14 16005 Mar-14 19253 19103 19465 16847 17312 19872 29532 [+]
Exports 92402.00 Feb-14 96437 Mar-14 95736 93924 93935 89760 95400 109644 162934 [+]
Imports 76138.00 Feb-14 76539 Mar-14 76484 74821 74470 72913 78088 89772 133402 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Debt To GDP 78.40 Dec-13 77.1 Dec-14 81.82 81.92 82 77.1 74.1 82.44 82.45 [+]
Government Budget Value 10.10 May-13 3.59 Sep-13 -4.79 0.61 -0.44 -3.98 -4.04 -4.02 -4.02 [+]
Government Spending 118.60 Nov-13 119 Mar-14 119 119 119 120 129 147 216 [+]
Credit Rating 98.47 [+]
Government Budget 0.00 Dec-13 -0.13 Jun-14 -0.14 -0.17 -0.19 -0.3 0.2 -0.25 -0.25 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bankruptcies 2055.00 Jan-14 1951 Feb-14 2246 2038 1959 1957 1919 1336 915 [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.40 Feb-14 84.01 Jun-14 83.74 84.01 84.07 83.91 82.99 83.61 83.37 [+]
Car Registrations 296408.00 Mar-14 284229 Apr-14 336086 289728 241198 211343 227054 260287 386886 [+]
Changes in Inventories -8.80 Nov-13 -7.24 Mar-14 -7.24 -6.06 -6.11 -6.36 -6.42 -6.42 -6.42 [+]
Factory Orders 0.60 Feb-14 1.97 Mar-14 1.97 1.76 1.22 1.74 1.6 -0.42 -0.42 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.37 Feb-14 0.14 Mar-14 0.14 0.88 0.66 0.5 0.46 2.57 3.76 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.70 Mar-14 54.03 Apr-14 53.8 57.02 58.11 57.43 53.27 55.29 54.5 [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.40 Jan-14 4.31 Feb-14 4.84 5.76 6.1 5.15 0.2 3.81 4.43 [+]
New Orders 110.00 Feb-14 110 Mar-14 110 113 113 113 109 111 110 [+]
Services Pmi 53.00 Mar-14 55.18 Apr-14 54 55.74 55.62 56.22 52.97 54.3 56.3 [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 43.20 Apr-14 39.89 May-14 54 65.12 59.55 49.57 41.96 44.97 45.48 [+]
Business Confidence 110.70 Mar-14 112 Apr-14 112 113 113 113 108 159 218 [+]
Industrial Production 4.80 Feb-14 4.98 Mar-14 4.98 6.61 3.91 2.26 0.47 4.04 3.7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 Feb-14 -0.11 Feb-14 0 0.42 0.54 -0.03 0.25 3.8 3.5 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.00 Feb-14 0.45 Feb-14 -0.12 0.87 0.5 -0.53 0.19 4.04 3.99 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.97 Feb-14 3.03 Mar-14 2.86 2.94 3.02 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 [+]
Consumer Spending 351.94 Nov-13 355 Mar-14 355 357 357 358 385 441 655 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 440.89 Nov-13 447 Mar-14 447 452 455 458 500 591 881 [+]
Personal Savings 10.00 Nov-13 9.94 Mar-14 9.94 9.91 9.92 9.93 9.97 6.95 4.76 [+]
Consumer Confidence 8.50 Apr-14 8.96 May-14 7.61 9.42 10 10.26 9.55 60.24 34.96 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 29.60 Jan-14 30 Jun-14 30 30 29 30 29 29 29 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 Jan-14 45 Jun-14 45 44 44 43 42 41 41 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 Jan-14 19 Jun-14 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 [+]
Social Security Rate 39.46 Jan-13 39 Dec-13 40 39 39 39 39 38 38 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.28 Jan-13 19 Dec-13 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.18 Jan-13 20 Dec-13 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Output 14.10 Feb-14 9.68 Mar-14 9.68 12.23 12.82 2.21 2.47 17.68 24.49 [+]
Housing Index 143.40 Jan-14 141 Feb-14 142 147 149 151 148 146 146 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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Germany Inflation Rate Slows in March  
Consumer prices in Germany rose by an annual 1.0 percent in March of 2014, matching the preliminary estimate, and decelerating from 1.2 percent in February. The last time an inflation rate of 1.0 percent was observed was in August of 2010.
Germany Trade Surplus Increases 8.6% in February  
German trade surplus widened to € 16.3 billion in February of 2014 from € 15.0 billion in the previous month. Compared with the same month last year, the trade surplus narrowed slightly by 3 percent, as imports rose the most in nearly two-and-a-half years.
German Unemployment Rate Up to 5.1%  
In February of 2014, German seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose slightly to 5.1 percent from 5.0 percent in the previous month, figures published by the Federal Statistical Office showed. Youth unemployment rose to 7.7 percent from 7.6 percent in January.
German Inflation Rate Down to 3-1/2-Year Low  
Annual consumer prices in Germany are expected to slow to 1.0 percent in March of 2014, preliminary figures showed. The inflation rate decelerated for the third consecutive month, as energy prices keep falling.
Germany Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.2% in February  
German consumer prices rose at a slower 1.2 percent in February of 2014, down from 1.3 percent in the previous month and confirming the preliminary estimate released later in February.
German Trade Surplus Widens in January  
Germany recorded a € 15 billion trade surplus in January of 2014, up from a revised € 13.9 billion in the previous month and € 13.6 billion a year earlier, as exports increased by an annual 2.9 percent and imports by 1.5 percent.
Germany Inflation Rate Down to 1.2% in February  
Consumer prices in Germany are expected to rise by 1.2% in February 2014 compared with February 2013, according to the preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office. The relatively low inflation rate is mainly due to decrease in energy prices.
Germany’s Unemployment Rate Down to 5% in January  
In January of 2014, German seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in the previous month, figures published by the Federal Statistical Office showed. Youth unemployment fell slightly to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent in December.
Exports Drive German GDP Growth in Q4  
In the last quarter of 2013, the German GDP expanded by 0.4 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, confirming an earlier estimate and boosted by foreign trade, while domestic demand remained weak.
German GDP Beats Expectations in Q4 2013  
German economic growth accelerated to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 up from 0.3 percent in the previous three-month period, supported by a rise in exports and capital investment.
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Spanish Trade Deficit Narrows to 4-Month Low  
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China’s Economy Expands 1.4% QoQ in Q1  
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Malaysian Inflation Rate Unchanged in March  
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This page includes economic forecasts for Germany. 4/16/2014





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