Germany | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4 3.9 3.9 4 5.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 22618.00 26400 23900 21241 23200 11400 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 71.20 69.2 68.7 71.43 66.8 59.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 1.07 1.02 1.01 1 1.04 0.83 [+]
Stock Market 11554.71 11200 11100 11000 10900 9180 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.32 0.2 0.21 0.21 0.05 0.24 percent [+]
30 Year Bond Yield 1.09 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 1.09 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 3363.45 3650 3680 3720 3890 4370 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 710.03 714 716 720 720 741 EUR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 798.82 796 798 815 803 817 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 140.39 147 148 143 150 157 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 45269.79 45800 45900 46003 46200 47200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 44053.07 45100 45200 44625 45600 46600 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4.56 4.31 4.56 9.33 4.16 3.65 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 36.19 29.6 34.6 37.9 40.8 44.9 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 160.92 157 163 155 156 161 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 128.52 135 137 138 141 150 EUR Billion [+]
GDP From Services 113.27 110 114 120 120 130 EUR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4 3.9 3.9 4 5.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 43481.00 43706 43761 43547 43847 44900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2568.27 2760 2770 2587 2800 3010 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -17.00 3 5 -8.7 5 15 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.70 2.2 2.3 1.38 2.5 2.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.70 7 7.2 6.45 7.4 8 percent [+]
Labour Costs 110.47 114 115 111 118 126 Index Points [+]
Productivity 103.10 105 105 105 107 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 658.44 652 644 682 623 599 Thousand [+]
Wages 3716.00 3680 3700 3809 3760 4010 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 107.90 110 111 112 113 126 Index Points [+]
Wage Growth 1.80 2.7 2.9 1.18 3.3 2.2 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.84 8.84 10.5 EUR/Hour [+]
Population 82.18 82.47 82.54 82.66 82.88 83.31 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.30 65.45 65.45 65.3 65.45 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.30 65.3 65.45 65.3 65.45 66 [+]
Employment Change 0.10 0.5 0.5 0.15 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Employment Rate 74.30 74.8 74.9 75.08 75.4 73.4 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 29203.90 29500 29700 29571 29900 30200 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 10700.90 10800 10900 10817 11103 11100 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.50 61.3 61.2 60.64 61 64 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 108.80 111 112 109 115 126 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.80 103 104 101 107 120 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 108.00 111 112 109 114 125 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.22 1.5 1.7 1.22 2.1 2.8 percent [+]
Producer Prices 103.00 105 106 104 108 116 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.10 -0.6 -0.1 1.86 0.7 1.6 percent [+]
Export Prices 104.80 103 104 106 105 111 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.40 99.8 100 100 101 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.20 1.2 1.3 1.54 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 105.30 108 109 105 111 122 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.32 -0.24 -0.18 -0.32 0.15 1.89 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 1918.00 1850 1860 2066 1880 2160 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 2739.90 2800 2820 2924 2910 3540 EUR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 2780.30 2880 2980 3026 3140 4510 EUR Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 7954742.00 8470000 8530000 7830577 8720000 10200000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 175765.00 183000 183000 184597 167000 169000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1341.05 1390 1400 1340 1420 1700 EUR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1376.50 2100 2200 2410 2690 6680 EUR Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 149.75 151 149 148 147 132 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 22618.00 26400 23900 21241 23200 11400 EUR Million [+]
Exports 108467.00 108000 106000 106400 106300 91300 EUR Million [+]
Imports 85849.00 81500 81700 83300 74700 79900 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 24600.00 23800 23400 22200 21900 15400 EUR Million [+]
External Debt 4774547.00 4970000 5060000 4973891 5290000 5790000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 8.80 6.7 6.7 8.58 6.7 5.2 percent [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -5035.05 3743 3813 3854 3460 2130 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 30426.88 20500 21100 21500 19000 14800 EUR Million [+]
Gold Reserves 3377.94 3400 3400 3373 3400 3400 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 48.00 45 45 48.26 45 45 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2049.00 1989 2041 2093 2084 1716 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 4.31 3.44 3.44 2.5 3.44 3.44 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 34970.00 34722 35247 35772 36298 41188 Thousand [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 71.20 69.2 68.7 71.43 66.8 59.8 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.60 0.5 0.5 0.64 0.5 1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 10.21 -23 31 1.86 16 19 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending 138.84 141 142 144 145 157 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 43.90 44.6 44.5 44.12 44.1 43.5 percent [+]
Government Revenues 349.06 311 343 339 367 391 EUR Billion [+]
Government Debt 1811954.90 1850000 1860000 1811855 1870000 1910000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 338.85 334 312 336 351 372 EUR Billion [+]
Asylum Applications 24565.00 69869 65440 72930 45600 17400 [+]
Military Expenditure 47045.50 46182 46822 47462 47737 49301 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 111.00 110 109 108 107 104 [+]
Services PMI 54.30 55.6 56 53.69 56.3 53.38 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.60 54.4 54.8 56.66 55.8 53.9 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.20 53.7 54.1 54.92 54.2 53.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.20 0.9 1 2.84 1.3 0.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.40 -1 0.5 0.08 0.8 0.6 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.70 1 1.4 11.74 2.2 2.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 85.70 84.6 84.7 85.04 84.9 83.7 percent [+]
New Orders 113.90 109 110 111 106 113 Index Points [+]
Factory Orders -2.50 0.9 1.5 0.21 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -6.84 -4.29 -3.54 -3.21 -3.08 -3.24 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1621.00 1890 1970 1810 1870 1750 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 182.62 189 192 184 198 235 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 13.80 17.5 14.2 18.6 22.6 25.3 [+]
Car Production 365100.00 518000 516000 535000 366000 373000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 256533.00 325000 317000 302000 252000 260000 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.57 5.58 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.87 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 5.00 5 4 4 4 3 [+]
Corruption Index 81.00 82 82 80.05 82 85 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 10.00 9 9 13.03 9 7 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 14 14 17.08 14 11 [+]
Mining Production -8.10 -1.5 -0.4 -3.72 0.2 2.15 percent [+]
Steel Production 3334.63 3820 3780 3432 3000 3050 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 9.90 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 8.5 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.80 -0.8 -0.4 0.01 0.7 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 2.5 2.2 1.04 3.1 1.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 392.37 392 394 398 396 400 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 464.16 465 468 478 476 508 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 9.60 9.4 9.1 9 8.5 8 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 231488.00 240000 245000 237483 257000 298000 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 2742307.00 2710000 2710000 2792028 2720000 2820000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.48 2.74 2.81 2.56 2.96 3.56 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.51 1.53 1.86 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 53.40 52.9 52.7 52.45 52.1 49.5 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 82.22 79.5 78.4 81.44 75.9 69.6 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Construction Output 1.20 3.6 5.8 2.8 2.5 1.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 134.35 134 135 137 138 153 Index Points [+]
Building Permits 27777.00 27600 24300 23400 23600 32700 [+]
Construction Pmi 54.90 51.6 52.4 52.92 53.2 51.6 [+]
Construction Orders 21.60 8.5 4.9 8.64 4.1 2.7 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 51.90 52.5 52.5 52.14 52.5 52.5 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.72 29.7 29.7 29.72 29.7 29.7 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 39.76 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.33 19.3 19.3 19.33 19.3 19.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.43 20.2 20.2 20.43 20.2 20.2 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy. 1/17/2017