Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.22 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.1 3 3.2 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -1086.90 497 479 250 300 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 230 231 233 234 243 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 112.49 120 121 122 123 141 [+]
Stock Market 19119.57 19000 18800 18600 18400 15500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.9 0.07 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.22 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 1.00 1.6 1 1.5 0.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4123.26 4510 4510 4510 4510 5150 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 524291.30 523712 525330 524477 525589 525660 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 549544.00 550679 551635 552574 553658 566336 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 122051.20 122209 122364 122500 122614 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 44656.80 45100 45100 45100 45100 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35804.23 36000 36000 36000 36000 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 6252 6226 6201 6175 5654 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 27988 28217 28445 28674 31700 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 110709 110510 110312 110113 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 178 193 208 223 216 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30827 30815 30803 30791 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 96133 95605 95077 94549 97135 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 23660 23653 23646 23640 23480 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 6939 7067 7196 7324 9865 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.1 3 3.2 3.3 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 64750.00 64438 64430 64436 64431 64433 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2090.00 2031 2019 2028 2021 2024 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7159.00 7182 7225 7267 7308 7805 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 20856.00 20857 20866 20868 20868 20868 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 58.40 58.32 58.11 58.23 58.25 58.22 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10 60.36 60.36 60.36 60.36 60.36 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.31 1.3 1.29 1.28 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.21 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 percent [+]
Productivity 99.80 103 98.16 102 97.89 97.89 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 971.38 979 993 1006 1017 1062 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 388.87 419 395 398 400 399 Thousand [+]
Wages 660.70 310 539 308 672 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 798.13 350 556 332 808 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.16 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 823 823 823 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 127 127 127 127 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.10 99 100 101 103 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.80 100 100 102 103 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.20 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.50 102 104 101 104 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 97.70 103 103 98.85 98.9 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.50 95.23 94.12 94.02 94.13 94.13 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 92.30 83.23 83.21 83.14 83.2 83.18 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.50 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.50 2.33 4.03 4.4 3.9 1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.40 98.66 98.64 98.58 98.58 98.58 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.02 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 94996.20 93955 94232 94141 94154 94159 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 692747.90 693661 694147 694324 694372 694401 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 961574.90 965962 974423 983003 991387 1086393 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1283110.00 1290127 1299319 1306885 1313152 1340502 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 481981.70 495202 514273 533271 552128 766462 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1231573.00 1228479 1231858 1233409 1234527 1244866 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 444605.30 445156 444765 444669 444655 444644 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.35 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -127.90 -16.97 -8.14 -8.05 -8.05 -8.05 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 48.20 132 186 186 186 186 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.50 2.44 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 243.08 243 244 245 245 254 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -1086.90 497 479 250 300 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 5421.95 5785 5765 5850 5900 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6508.82 5288 5286 5600 5600 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 1112.00 1659 1490 1592 1538 1550 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.90 2.3 2.3 3.2 3.87 2.44 percent [+]
External Debt 368563.00 379520 382461 385513 388592 415943 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 103.50 103 103 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 21030.00 13619 12528 12330 12330 12340 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 3697.00 20823 18724 18940 18922 18922 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 17085000.00 16773951 16008005 16368155 16200275 16253401 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2295700.00 2124014 2132994 2141107 2144671 2146418 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.20 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 1.9 2.15 2.4 2.65 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 230 231 233 234 243 percent [+]
Government Budget -6.00 -6.61 -6.32 -6.03 -5.73 -5.66 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -51875.00 23263 -116033 -41217 -68656 -69641 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106449.20 106797 107172 107565 107963 113066 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 46345.80 46349 46449 46548 46649 46423 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1046.00 1051 1052 1052 1052 1052 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 42.10 42.59 43.12 43.65 43.37 42.88 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 10.00 5 5 13.73 10 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.50 52.3 51.6 51.3 51.4 51 [+]
Services Pmi 51.90 52.5 51.4 51.5 52.1 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.20 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.86 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.80 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.17 1.62 1.62 4.3 1.2 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 99.20 99.23 99.28 99.28 99.28 99.28 Index Points [+]
New Orders 1183.70 1080 1078 1078 1078 1078 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 6.70 0.46 0.43 0.49 0.5 0.49 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1396.90 731 519 392 351 577 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 605.00 648 644 650 651 651 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 16963.94 17166 18673 17476 18848 18441 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 114.80 116 116 116 117 117 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 49.80 48.38 47.64 46.91 46.39 44.96 [+]
Car Production 681032.00 702541 698843 695655 695501 696194 Units [+]
Car Registrations 229100.00 253852 197027 235995 196392 198859 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 104.80 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 1.00 1.25 3.05 2.51 3.32 2.82 [+]
Steel Production 9001.66 8931 8875 8853 8857 8860 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 1.40 -0.82 -1.28 -1.44 -1.53 -1.62 percent [+]
Cement Production 4741.00 5344 5074 5088 5125 5120 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.45 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 7 7 7 9 6 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.30 51.19 50.64 51.08 51.12 51.04 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 31.73 32.13 32.52 32.92 30.85 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 72 71 71 70 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 16.69 16.94 17.2 17.45 19.9 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.20 43.91 43.85 43.68 43.62 43.61 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.7 0.7 0.04 1.2 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.00 1 1 0.66 0.5 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -0.30 -0.48 -0.63 -0.7 0.5 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 297004.80 297419 297887 298136 298499 302478 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 769.63 363 459 397 439 430 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 49.60 3.39 22.02 10.87 19.24 15.86 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 235780.00 244892 246141 247192 248260 256235 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.16 1.14 1.16 1.1 1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 65.90 65.96 65.92 65.92 65.92 65.92 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Starts 12.80 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.45 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 1.10 2 2 4.38 3 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 106.74 107 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.91 61.95 61.99 62.03 62.49 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.62 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 50.84 50.84 55.95 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.25 29.25 29.6 29.6 29.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 15.02 15.02 15.2 15.2 15.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.22 14.22 14.39 14.39 14.39 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy. 2/28/2017