Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 0.61 Apr-14 0.63 May-14 0.67 0.64 0.8 0.59 1.5 1.76 2.76 [+]
Currency 102.39 Apr-14 102 May-14 106 105 106 107 105 106 108 [+]
Stock Market 13960.05 Apr-14 14069 May-14 14031 14684 14683 14679 14675 16612 17461 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 528044.10 Nov-13 531975 Mar-14 510753 528518 525587 525587 529439 538139 580135 [+]
Gdp Growth Annualized 0.70 Nov-13 4.5 Mar-14 -2.5 0.2 1.5 1.5 2 3.26 3.01 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108421.70 Nov-13 109442 Mar-14 109442 110484 110694 110528 108191 108753 108783 [+]
Gross National Product 525147.90 Nov-13 529535 Mar-14 529535 529685 528638 527112 593815 776361 1604794 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 Dec-13 1.14 Mar-14 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.03 1.2 1.45 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 Dec-13 3.5 Mar-14 2.45 2 1.5 1.5 1.42 2.08 2.31 [+]
GDP per capita 36938.01 Dec-12 37309 Dec-13 37635 37729 37813 37886 69914 233085 6207451 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 31425.49 Dec-12 31639 Dec-13 31977 32045 32103 32153 59251 196899 5241283 [+]
GDP 5960.00 Dec-12 6083 Dec-13 6010 6016 6021 6026 11078 36716 977216 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Employed Persons 63320.00 Feb-14 63463 Mar-14 63428 63514 63634 63690 72560 93510 195213 [+]
Job Vacancies 835.16 Feb-14 844 Mar-14 846 870 884 899 899 873 869 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80 Feb-14 59.22 Mar-14 59.22 60.47 60.34 59.58 59.69 59.67 59.67 [+]
Productivity 107.00 Jan-14 99.63 Feb-14 112 102 106 101 112 146 311 [+]
Retirement Age Men 61.00 Jan-13 61.08 Dec-13 61.92 62.07 62.2 62.32 62.7 63.37 63.48 [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 Jan-13 61.08 Dec-13 61.92 62.07 62.2 62.32 62.7 63.37 63.48 [+]
Unemployed Persons 2330.00 Feb-14 2334 Mar-14 2403 2327 2263 2229 2250 2298 2296 [+]
Wages 292.97 Feb-14 310 Mar-14 288 535 670 670 700 732 732 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 326.17 Feb-14 337 Mar-14 324 556 800 800 820 816 816 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.90 Dec-13 6.39 Jan-14 6.23 6.08 5.95 5.81 5.43 4.88 6.33 [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 Feb-14 3.9 Mar-14 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 5.7 6.7 [+]
Population 127.22 Dec-13 127 Jun-14 127 127 127 127 127 126 124 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 100.70 Feb-14 101 Mar-14 102 103 103 103 104 106 110 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.50 Feb-14 101 Mar-14 103 104 104 104 105 107 110 [+]
Export Prices 109.10 Mar-14 108 Mar-14 112 113 112 112 111 111 111 [+]
Gdp Deflator 92.70 Nov-13 91.97 Mar-14 91.97 91.23 90.81 91.5 91.51 91.52 91.52 [+]
Import Prices 127.40 Mar-14 127 Mar-14 130 133 132 130 123 123 123 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 Feb-14 0.1 Mar-14 0.5 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.58 2.83 [+]
Producer Prices 102.80 Mar-14 103 Mar-14 103 104 104 104 117 151 316 [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 Feb-14 1.5 Mar-14 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2 2.5 2 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 Feb-14 1.5 Mar-14 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.00 Apr-14 0 May-14 0 0 0.01 0.02 0 0 0 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 240784.10 Mar-14 247371 Apr-14 253149 275475 293714 293714 280511 200942 100802 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 1155.00 Apr-14 1900 Apr-14 -306 1705 -1853 -2053 -1762 -1769 -1768 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1279346.00 Mar-14 1278256 Apr-14 1278225 1282042 1295743 1300236 1295307 1279445 1266066 [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -835.00 Apr-14 -2214 May-14 -3140 -4015 -2305 -3531 -1163 -1429 -1429 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.14 Mar-14 0.25 Apr-14 0.25 0.01 0.02 0.28 0.32 0.54 0.96 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 413738.30 Mar-14 414101 Mar-14 415649 410241 414936 419800 425212 431696 425209 [+]
Money Supply M0 82103.00 Mar-14 81900 Mar-14 81875 81433 82028 85479 99336 132387 277220 [+]
Money Supply M1 579499.90 Mar-14 579986 Mar-14 582995 589935 590737 604618 694527 881127 1837136 [+]
Money Supply M2 863617.40 Mar-14 866749 Mar-14 867623 877842 883012 894965 1046721 1428566 3013600 [+]
Money Supply M3 1176919.20 Mar-14 1180246 Mar-14 1182067 1191031 1200604 1209854 1412529 1937484 4115193 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Capital Flows -7361.00 Feb-14 -8177 Mar-14 -18219 -10776 -13773 -10716 -8861 -4764 -2359 [+]
External Debt 295172.00 Dec-13 297620 Mar-14 297620 302492 304138 308369 306486 300937 300915 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 14226.00 Dec-13 10001 Jan-14 15953 12703 13697 12487 12247 12288 12288 [+]
Japan Exports Australia 126272.00 Feb-14 132603 Mar-14 132603 131743 136829 123685 128115 126230 126390 [+]
Japan Exports China 1074379.00 Feb-14 1190144 Mar-14 1190144 1186105 1178378 1192563 1097492 1107062 1176967 [+]
Terms of Trade 85.60 Mar-14 85.72 Mar-14 86.06 84.63 84.24 84.62 86.69 85.88 84.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 880000.00 Feb-14 941032 Mar-14 941032 937048 941782 902002 872341 885112 885456 [+]
Current Account 612.70 Feb-14 -118 Mar-14 191 -774 -509 -1073 -738 -802 -799 [+]
Exports 5799.31 Feb-14 6524 Mar-14 6517 6195 6363 6259 6990 9091 18998 [+]
Imports 6601.84 Feb-14 7293 Mar-14 7711 7682 7843 7858 8343 11053 23100 [+]
Balance of Trade -802.53 Feb-14 -1197 Mar-14 -1194 -1487 -1480 -1599 -1352 -1962 -4103 [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.70 Dec-13 0.4 Jun-14 0.62 0.55 0.5 0.67 0.39 0.1 0.05 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -7.60 Dec-13 -9.28 Jun-14 -9.28 -9.29 -9.3 -9.3 -8 -5 -5 [+]
Government Budget Value -89157.00 Nov-13 -74285 Mar-14 -74285 -94449 -91854 -77603 -76979 -77242 -77239 [+]
Government Spending 103084.90 Nov-13 103106 Mar-14 103106 103550 103777 103943 118883 153477 320404 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 227.20 Dec-13 228 Dec-14 231 232 233 228 239 248 251 [+]
Credit Rating 81.68 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bankruptcies 814.00 Mar-14 796 Apr-14 930 763 690 679 503 209 86.25 [+]
Capacity Utilization 104.90 Feb-14 105 Mar-14 109 110 108 106 102 104 105 [+]
Car Registrations 417136.00 Mar-14 229136 Apr-14 120222 132359 160197 160197 213145 218396 230750 [+]
Changes in Inventories -2780.10 Nov-13 -2804 Mar-14 -2804 -2930 -2973 -2952 -2946 -2816 -3045 [+]
Coincident Index 113.40 Feb-14 114 Mar-14 114 117 118 118 112 115 114 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 57.90 Mar-14 58.84 Apr-14 58.23 58.68 57.37 55.94 54.46 54.89 54.91 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.31 Feb-14 0.25 Mar-14 0.25 0.69 1.15 0.71 0.69 3.99 3.99 [+]
Leading Composite Index 108.50 Feb-14 113 Mar-14 113 114 115 114 111 112 112 [+]
Machinery Orders -8.77 Feb-14 -1.06 Mar-14 -1.06 -2.33 -2.94 -4.59 -4.52 -4.52 -4.52 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.90 Mar-14 56.23 Apr-14 60 60.19 57.66 57.46 53.69 55.12 55.45 [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.83 Nov-13 5.69 Dec-13 8.67 9.33 7.9 5.33 3.64 4.15 4.24 [+]
New Orders 862.45 Feb-14 1024 Feb-14 1038 1057 1095 1073 1050 1047 1047 [+]
Industrial Production 7.00 Feb-14 6.9 Feb-14 11.81 14.09 13.69 11.36 6.15 4.19 4.41 [+]
Business Confidence 17.00 Mar-14 10 Jun-14 10 12 15 15 13.53 27.41 29.12 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bank Lending Rate 1.20 Apr-14 1.19 May-14 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 [+]
Consumer Spending 315031.00 Nov-13 316577 Mar-14 316577 317120 317138 316950 358967 464013 968583 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 398.28 Feb-14 365 Mar-14 359 596 328 867 985 1269 2650 [+]
Household Spending -2.50 Feb-14 1.23 Mar-14 -0.2 0.3 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45 [+]
Personal Savings 16.10 Feb-14 5.01 Mar-14 5.01 43.69 7.76 48.57 48.39 24.84 12.3 [+]
Consumer Confidence 37.50 Mar-14 37.21 Apr-14 39.5 42.39 41.56 36.79 41.76 43.9 46 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.30 Feb-14 0.7 Mar-14 -0.5 1.26 -0.14 -0.14 0.24 0.79 1.29 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.62 Feb-14 5.5 Mar-14 -2.5 1.2 1 1 2.77 3.27 3.51 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 38.01 Jan-14 35.64 Jun-14 35.64 35.64 35.64 35.64 35.64 38 38 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.84 Jan-14 51 Jun-14 51 51 51 51 52 54 54 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 5.00 Jan-14 8 Jun-14 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 [+]
Social Security Rate 28.36 Jan-13 28 Dec-13 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.42 Jan-13 14 Dec-13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.94 Jan-13 14 Dec-13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Orders 12.26 Feb-14 36.92 Mar-14 36.92 26.78 29.23 25.12 25.19 25.17 25.17 [+]
Housing Index 69689.00 Feb-14 82634 Mar-14 82634 99778 94881 93476 90587 91464 91477 [+]
Housing Starts 1.00 Feb-14 8 Feb-14 -6 -10 -8 -8 5 10 11.36 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



RELATED NEWS

Bank of Japan Leaves Monetary Stimulus Unchanged  
At its April 8th, 2014 meeting, the Bank of Japan maintained its commitment to increase base money at an annual pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen, as widely expected, despite a sales tax hike, saying the economy is recovering moderately.
Japan Unemployment Rate Falls to 3.6% in February  
Japan's jobless rate declined to the lowest in more than six years in February and the availability of jobs improved to the highest in more than six years.
Japan Annual Inflation Rate Up 1.5% in February  
The consumer price index for Japan in February 2014 was 100.7 (2010=100), the same level as the previous month, and up 1.5% over the year.
Japan Marks a Record 20-Month Run of Trade Deficits  
Japanese trade balance came to a deficit of ¥800.3 billion in February of 2014, narrower than a record gap of ¥2.8 trillion reported in January of 2014 but larger than a deficit of ¥781.3 billion reported in the same month of 2013.
BoJ Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
Bank of Japan decided on March 11th to leave the monetary policy steady and keep buying enough government bonds to boost monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen, saying the economy was picking up.
Japan GDP Growth Revised Down to 0.2% in Q4  
Japan's economy expanded 0.2 percent in the last three months of 2014 from the previous quarter, revised down from a preliminary 0.3 percent expansion due to slower growth in capital spending and private consumption.
Japanese Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 3.7% in January  
Japan's jobless rate held steady at the lowest level in six years in January and the number of employed persons increased 0.5% to 62.62 million.
Japanese Inflation Rate Levells Off in January  
Japan's consumer price index increased 1.4 percent on a year in January, down from 1.6 percent reported a month earlier. The cost of energy, transportation and food increased the most while prices of housing and medical care decreased.
Japan Reports Record Trade Deficit in January  
Japanese trade deficit widened to 2.79 trillion yen in January of 2014 from 1.6 trillion yen reported in the same month of 2013. Imports surged 25 percent while exports grew only 9.5 percent.
Bank of Japan Expands Loan Support Programme  
At its February 18th, 2014 meeting, the Bank of Japan decided to keep boosting the monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen. The central bank also decided to extend two facilities that were set to expire in April, aiming to stimulate bank lending.
MORE RELATED NEWS

LATEST NEWS

Chile Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
At its April 17th, 2014 meeting, Central Bank of Chile left the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4 percent, following last month's cut, citing low output and demand, but hinted possible future rate cuts, depending on domestic and external conditions.
Russia Unemployment Drops in March  
Russian jobless rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.4 percent, after remaining stable at 5.6 percent in the previous two months.
Canada Inflation Rises Above Forecasts in March  
The annual consumer prices in Canada accelerated to 1.5 percent in March of 2014 following a 1.1 increase in the previous month, as energy prices surged.
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly  
In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Brazil Unemployment Rate Down to 5%  
In March of 2014, Brazil’s jobless rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5 percent, below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment reached 5.7 percent.
Dutch Unemployment Rate Falls for the First Time in 2014  
In March of 2014, Netherlands’ seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 8.7 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous month and 8.1 percent a year earlier, as more people left permanently the labor market rather than found jobs.
Singaporean Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply in March  
The trade surplus decreased 51.1 percent in March of 2014 over a year earlier and 47.2 percent from February to SGD 2.3 billion. Imports rose at a faster pace than exports, as sales of pharmaceuticals and electronics fell, while shipments of petrochemicals and re-exports contributed to overall increase.
Mozambique Leaves Lending Rate Steady at 8.25%  
At its April 16th, 2014 meeting, Bank of Mozambique left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25 percent for the sixth consecutive meeting, saying this was consistent with meeting domestic economic targets for 2014.
Spanish Trade Deficit Narrows to 4-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Spanish trade gap decreased to € 1.62 billion, down from € 2.82 billion in the previous month. Compared with the same month a year earlier, the trade deficit widened 37 percent.
Angolan Inflation Rate Down To 7.32% in March  
The annual consumer prices in Angola decelerated for the second consecutive month to 7.32 percent in March of 2014, from 7.48 percent recorded in February of 2014.
MORE TOP NEWS

OVERVIEW    |     WORLBANK    |     [+] Calendar    |     [+] Countries    |     [+] Indicators    |     News


This page includes economic forecasts for Japan. 4/19/2014





Markets

GDP

Labour

Prices

Money

Trade

Government

Business

Consumer

Taxes

Housing