Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate -0.40 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -40.72 -283 -585 332 332 347 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 233 234 234 235 243 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 106.00 109 110 111 111 128 [+]
Stock Market 16627.00 16300 16100 16000 16000 13300 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y -0.22 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.12 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.10 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 1.90 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4123.26 4490 4490 4510 4510 4650 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 530235.00 527000 527000 526000 526000 527000 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 540180.10 543000 544000 546000 547000 573000 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 106198.90 110000 110000 111000 111000 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 44656.80 44880 44880 45100 45100 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35804.23 35899 35899 36000 36000 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6277.20 6300 6270 6250 6220 5770 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28205.10 28400 28700 28900 29100 31700 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 111231.70 110000 110000 110000 110000 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 193.80 208 223 219 216 216 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30803 30791 30765 30739 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 95137.40 95100 94500 94600 94700 97100 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24319.00 23100 23100 23100 23100 22600 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 7612.40 7200 7320 7510 7700 9870 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 64460.00 64308 64333 64409 64480 65118 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2160.00 2168 2173 2170 2172 2171 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 6971.00 7022 7063 7105 7146 7724 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 20909.00 20820 20803 20809 20810 20810 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 58.20 57.67 57.59 57.8 57.75 57.73 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10 60.9 61.36 61.73 62.03 63.2 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.2 5.25 5.24 5.24 5.24 percent [+]
Productivity 89.10 98.95 94.39 98.87 94.62 94.69 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 926.52 920 927 932 937 955 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 387.61 428 433 427 430 430 Thousand [+]
Wages 300.73 310 663 310 310 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 323.58 329 801 350 350 809 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth -0.20 0.46 0.54 0.54 0.63 1.1 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 780.00 800 800 820 820 860 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.82 127 127 127 127 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 61 61 61 61 61 [+]
Retirement Age Men 61.00 61 61 61 61 61 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate -0.40 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.60 105 105 106 106 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 103.00 104 105 107 107 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.40 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 93.40 93.7 96.8 94 96.95 98.06 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.20 104 104 103 103 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.60 98.41 99.09 99.14 99.07 99.07 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 91.10 90.93 90.88 90.91 90.89 90.9 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 2.45 1.38 1.42 1.41 1.42 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -4.20 -3.68 -2.73 -1.68 -0.75 1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.10 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.06 -0.07 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 90901.30 92036 92713 93410 94124 105443 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 663153.40 673830 682422 691103 699879 834102 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 940571.80 949385 958229 964923 970997 974589 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1257305.20 1268231 1278795 1289736 1301081 1525761 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 432758.60 452988 472180 491107 509860 755803 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1265402.00 1270581 1275304 1279690 1283903 1334997 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 432514.70 432402 432449 432442 432435 432431 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.42 0.42 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 444.60 -30.41 -35.59 -35.63 -35.63 -35.63 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 1718.10 215 192 192 192 192 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.00 1.88 1.8 1.76 1.73 1.69 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 243.08 243 244 245 245 254 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -40.72 -283 -585 332 332 347 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 5090.95 5720 5670 5650 5630 5620 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 5131.67 5070 5050 5040 5040 5040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 1809.10 479 344 255 198 1218 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.90 2.42 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.44 percent [+]
External Debt 364958.00 377000 383000 390000 396000 463000 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 108.20 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5756.00 11599 11429 11420 11420 11420 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 40914.00 24855 25852 25768 25778 25775 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 17267000.00 18072110 18111297 19260624 20012907 37029599 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1985700.00 1984404 1982538 1980965 1979883 1978040 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.16 1.37 0.47 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.07 4.07 4.07 4.07 4.07 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 233 234 234 235 243 percent [+]
Government Budget -6.00 -6.03 -5.73 -5.72 -5.71 -5.66 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 64165.00 -66794 -63857 35585 -89515 -59246 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 104816.40 105584 106019 106381 106768 111989 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 46345.80 46349 46449 46548 46649 46423 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 769.00 794 794 794 794 794 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 42.10 42.59 43.12 43.65 43.37 42.88 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 7 6 5 5 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.00 48 49.1 50.1 50.1 51 [+]
Services Pmi 49.40 49.8 51 52 52 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.40 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.60 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.45 1.28 1.62 1.62 1.62 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 94.20 94.13 94.16 94.16 94.16 94.16 Index Points [+]
New Orders 918.33 1005 1007 1006 1006 1006 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders -1.40 -1.25 -0.18 0 -0.01 -0.02 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1019.00 99.26 -107 -158 -152 3.06 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 763.00 703 747 815 726 726 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 15899.74 15022 17254 15640 17783 16860 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 110.50 111 111 110 110 110 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 41.20 42.29 42.87 43.29 43.61 44.51 [+]
Car Production 554070.00 599754 603696 617178 619030 616239 Units [+]
Car Registrations 248301.00 241725 191696 247127 214384 211573 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 100.00 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment -5.00 -7.14 -6.67 -7.56 -6.51 -6.14 [+]
Steel Production 8760.36 8688 8724 8726 8723 8723 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.60 -0.93 -1.39 -1.53 -1.61 -1.7 percent [+]
Cement Production 4710.00 4684 4717 4756 4754 4750 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.47 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.44 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 7 7 7 9 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 31.19 31.79 31.46 31.13 28.92 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 75.05 73.73 72.73 71.73 74.96 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 17.2 17.45 17.64 17.84 19.89 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 41.80 41.94 41.85 41.77 41.76 41.75 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -1.90 1.5 0.8 1 1 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -1.10 0.59 -0.83 -0.73 -0.71 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 306947.40 306883 307252 307651 308055 314603 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 313.38 362 365 362 365 382 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings -1.70 9.42 18.17 11.28 16.78 14.48 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 1.2 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 235780.00 242215 243706 244892 246141 256235 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.21 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.05 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 65.90 65.92 65.95 65.96 65.95 66.01 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Starts 9.80 2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 34.50 4.52 4 2 2 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 107.23 107 106 107 106 107 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.99 62.03 62.06 62.09 62.49 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 32.26 32.26 32.26 31.12 31.12 29.74 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.84 50.84 50.84 50.84 50.84 50.84 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.25 29.25 29.25 29.25 29.25 29.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.02 15.02 15.02 15.02 15.02 15.02 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.22 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy. 7/24/2016