Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.15 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.00 3.2 3.1 3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.10 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 1.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 496.17 528 497 479 250 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 234 234 235 235 243 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 113.67 111 112 113 114 132 [+]
Stock Market 18426.08 17700 17500 17300 17100 14300 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.15 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.90 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 2.20 1.8 1.6 1 1.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4123.26 4220 4310 4310 4310 4670 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 534540.50 527000 527000 526000 526000 527000 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 544398.90 547849 549504 551031 552785 577365 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 107892.90 107882 108231 107789 108000 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 44656.80 44880 45100 45100 45100 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35804.23 35899 36000 36000 36000 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6277.20 6268 6242 6215 6189 5755 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28205.10 28674 28880 29087 29293 31700 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 111231.70 110113 110235 110357 110479 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 193.80 223 219 216 213 216 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30791 30765 30739 30713 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 95137.40 94549 94639 94730 94821 97135 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24319.00 23107 23112 23116 23121 22660 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 7612.40 7324 7511 7698 7884 9865 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.00 3.2 3.1 3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 64550.00 64733 64804 64922 65018 65924 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1970.00 1981 1951 1929 1912 1838 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7012.00 7058 7099 7141 7183 7727 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 20893.00 20857 20860 20863 20862 20862 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 58.60 58.06 57.88 58.13 58.1 58.06 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.40 60.25 60.24 60.24 60.24 60.24 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.28 1.29 1.3 1.31 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.18 5.21 5.2 5.2 5.2 percent [+]
Productivity 97.90 95.3 99.85 95.63 100 95.75 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 917.55 917 917 917 917 917 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 491.35 401 435 420 425 424 Thousand [+]
Wages 295.71 663 310 539 308 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 327.46 804 350 556 332 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.20 0.71 0.57 0.61 0.69 1.12 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 780.00 810 830 830 830 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.82 127 127 127 126 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 61 61 61 61 61 [+]
Retirement Age Men 61.00 61 61 61 61 61 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.10 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 1.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.40 97 99 100 101 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.80 99 100 100 102 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate -0.40 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 92.90 96.03 93.14 96.09 92.82 95.67 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.70 104 103 103 98.46 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 98.00 98.9 98.99 98.78 98.77 98.8 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 92.20 94.17 94.34 94.29 94.32 94.31 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.30 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.70 -1.83 -0.69 0.14 0.65 1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 97.90 98.34 98.78 98.74 98.67 98.68 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.06 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08 -0.09 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 92182.90 92437 93126 93834 94559 105154 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 672982.80 676233 684775 693410 702139 825378 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 945101.00 950266 953742 957093 959928 944364 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1271018.20 1278380 1289228 1300450 1312072 1515702 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 463392.20 477005 496691 516199 535536 772871 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1242800.00 1239495 1235133 1234782 1235445 1246917 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 438246.70 438448 438346 438318 438323 438320 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.40 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 330.50 46.13 -1.25 -1.97 -1.98 -1.98 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 112.30 198 198 199 199 199 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.40 2.51 2.53 2.54 2.54 2.54 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 243.08 243 244 245 245 254 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 496.17 528 497 479 250 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 5869.90 5824 5785 5765 5850 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 5373.73 5296 5288 5286 5600 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 1821.00 479 344 255 198 1218 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.90 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.5 2.44 percent [+]
External Debt 364459.00 376080 382515 385517 389571 425474 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 106.30 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 44889.00 12263 11862 11686 11749 11762 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 31264.00 28049 28388 28310 28324 28323 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 15218000.00 16256704 16671711 17418062 18155340 30863070 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2135900.00 1970597 2000712 2017227 2026423 2037848 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.22 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.65 2.39 2.12 1.86 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 229.20 234 234 235 235 243 percent [+]
Government Budget -6.00 -5.73 -5.72 -5.71 -5.69 -5.66 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -130165.00 -69670 32776 -117344 -57694 -71503 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 105033.90 105463 105689 106054 106410 110833 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 46345.80 46349 46449 46548 46649 46423 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1046.00 1050 1051 1052 1052 1052 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 42.10 42.59 43.12 43.65 43.37 42.88 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 6 5 5 7.72 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.30 51.3 50.4 51.2 51.3 51 [+]
Services Pmi 50.50 50 51 51 51.5 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.30 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.09 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.37 1.62 1.62 1.62 8.68 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 96.70 96.52 96.59 96.59 96.59 96.59 Index Points [+]
New Orders 948.07 964 964 964 964 964 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders -3.30 0.11 0.58 0.52 0.51 0.51 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1363.50 419 70.21 -16.69 -85.31 8.39 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 683.00 660 732 642 616 648 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 18263.88 17147 15570 17628 15178 16720 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 112.70 113 114 114 114 114 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 49.30 48.74 47.28 46.64 46.11 44.67 [+]
Car Production 721364.00 644895 654538 667473 668898 666106 Units [+]
Car Registrations 209836.00 208903 243917 203073 249130 206949 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 100.30 99.38 99.78 99.77 99.78 99.8 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment -3.00 0.15 1.25 3.05 2.51 2.82 [+]
Steel Production 9061.94 8898 8894 8860 8854 8859 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 3.07 0.07 -0.71 -1.13 -1.36 -1.6 percent [+]
Cement Production 5349.00 4951 5053 5047 5028 5030 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.45 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 7 7 7 9 6 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 31.33 32.13 32.52 32.92 30.85 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 73.73 72.73 71.73 70.74 74.96 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 17.45 17.65 17.84 18.04 19.9 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 42.30 42.68 42.41 42.34 42.34 42.34 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.50 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.03 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.10 0.8 1 1 -0.91 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -0.40 -0.85 -0.69 -0.71 -0.74 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 308018.00 308687 309170 309666 310168 317286 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 347.54 426 426 417 425 441 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 7.60 22.07 8.67 19.34 12.09 15.05 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 235780.00 243706 244892 246141 247192 256235 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.21 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.10 66.23 66.3 66.32 66.35 66.48 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Starts 13.70 4 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 15.20 4 2 2 7.01 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 106.65 106 107 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 62.03 62.06 62.09 62.12 62.49 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 32.26 32.26 31.12 31.12 32.26 29.74 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 55.95 50.84 50.84 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.25 29.25 29.25 29.6 29.6 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 15.02 15.02 15.02 15.2 15.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.39 14.39 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy. 12/3/2016