Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.3 0.24 0.5 0.24 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 614.72 479 250 300 250 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 108.82 113 114 117 116 125 [+]
Stock Market 18620.75 18800 18600 18000 18200 15200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.1 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.3 0.24 0.5 0.24 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 1.20 1 1.5 0.5 1.01 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4123.26 4510 4510 4510 4870 5150 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 524555.80 525773 525237 526195 525681 526422 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 549792.70 551974 552973 554081 555152 566921 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 122858.90 123467 123716 123944 124138 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 44656.80 45100 45100 45100 45026 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35804.23 36000 36000 36000 35874 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5604 5284 4963 5013 5437 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 28760 28820 28880 29022 30429 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 108312 108307 108302 107843 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 224 225 225 228 231 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30815 30803 30791 30765 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 63793 52569 41345 50530 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24522 24768 25014 24945 24808 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 8544 8884 9223 9418 11527 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 64830.00 65016 65109 65188 65266 65900 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1900.00 1906 1911 1906 1909 1908 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 7025.00 7081 7122 7163 7204 7657 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 20858.00 20866 20874 20874 20873 20873 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 57.90 58.05 58.17 58.04 58.05 58.07 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.60 59.31 59.31 59.31 59.31 59.31 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.3 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 percent [+]
Productivity 104.80 99.81 104 99.46 104 99.43 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 927.33 943 946 949 951 961 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 402.05 388 393 394 392 393 Thousand [+]
Wages 293.66 539 308 672 322 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 325.57 556 332 808 350 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth 0.40 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 823 823 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 127 127 127 127 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.03 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.80 100 101 103 100 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.60 100 102 103 99.69 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.20 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.34 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 104.50 104 101 104 101 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.20 103 98.73 98.78 98.8 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 95.40 94.54 94.38 94.45 94.47 94.46 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 93.60 95.32 95.1 95.19 95.15 95.16 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.47 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.40 2.38 2.58 2.29 1.75 1 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 98.40 98.36 98.38 98.38 98.38 98.38 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 94886.20 94757 94715 94725 94735 94732 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 699588.50 701065 701290 701396 701439 701465 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 962827.60 970860 979511 987646 995444 1077355 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1291633.30 1302448 1312884 1323206 1333455 1442077 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 490117.50 508033 526108 543967 561620 744880 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1230330.00 1234063 1235772 1237024 1238153 1248766 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 446383.80 446378 446181 446139 446127 446120 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.31 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 315.20 -5.9 -12.52 -12.56 -12.56 -12.56 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -796.20 166 179 179 179 179 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.00 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.16 3.16 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 243.08 244 245 245 245 254 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 614.72 479 250 300 250 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 7229.08 5765 5850 5900 6529 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 6614.36 5286 5600 5600 6346 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 2813.60 1029 1600 1490 1601 1558 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.10 2.3 3.35 3.94 3.82 2.58 percent [+]
External Debt 399002.00 411326 415852 426755 436537 520907 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 101.90 102 102 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 21355.00 12724 13219 13275 13291 13292 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 17633.00 13278 13173 13244 13231 13232 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 12476000.00 15308036 15606648 15475119 15531584 15514883 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2205700.00 2208420 2207710 2205718 2203167 2194711 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.20 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.15 2.4 2.65 2.39 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 4.01 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.63 -4.66 -4.69 -4.66 -4.54 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44416.00 -111978 -39015 -49950 9066 -56668 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106315.90 107058 107436 107828 108228 112892 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 46345.80 46349 46449 46548 46649 46423 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 971.00 998 983 996 987 991 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 42.10 42.59 43.12 43.65 43.37 42.88 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 12.00 5 14.12 10 14.35 2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.80 52.6 52.3 52.4 51.8 51 [+]
Services Pmi 52.90 52.6 52.5 52.1 52 50.8 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.66 2.3 2.5 2.86 4.18 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 3.20 0.1 0.09 0.4 0.09 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.66 1.62 4.17 1.2 4.2 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 101.40 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
New Orders 1019.16 1046 1046 1046 1046 1046 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 1.50 0.23 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -88.90 -309 73.69 205 437 561 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 786.00 696 725 716 724 722 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 20757.91 20105 18424 20881 19170 20287 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 115.50 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 50.60 49.31 48.11 47.28 46.65 44.91 [+]
Car Production 734560.00 712921 700374 698548 700686 701074 Units [+]
Car Registrations 398048.00 307058 310131 261611 313718 277279 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 104.40 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 8.71 9.46 10.7 9.7 9.69 [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 20.00 21.03 21.7 22.06 22.36 22.78 [+]
Steel Production 8339.93 8663 8596 8606 8614 8612 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 3.80 6.41 7.5 4.78 4.78 4.94 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.70 -0.62 -1.05 -1.3 -1.43 -1.56 percent [+]
Cement Production 4814.00 4990 5019 5056 5052 5049 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.49 5.44 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 8 8 8 9 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.90 51.01 50.81 51.12 51.13 51.08 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 36 37 38 39 45 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 71 70 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 18 18 18 18 18 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.90 43.77 43.61 43.56 43.56 43.56 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 0.7 0.03 1.2 0.03 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.10 1 0.4 0.5 0.39 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -3.80 -0.88 -0.78 0.5 -0.75 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 297004.80 297887 298136 298499 298863 302478 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 402.54 459 396 444 428 431 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 19.40 22.65 10.83 19.99 13.57 16.12 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 62.20 59.83 58.76 58.15 57.77 56.04 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 235780.00 246141 247192 248260 249187 256235 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.16 1.1 1.1 1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Starts -2.60 4.2 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 5.70 -7 4.3 3 -1 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 106.28 106 106 106 106 106 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.94 61.98 62.02 62.04 62.03 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 50.84 54.67 55.95 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.25 29.9 30.03 29.95 29.94 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 15.02 16.43 16.59 16.79 18.54 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.22 14.43 14.47 14.49 14.6 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy. 4/23/2017