Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Bond 10Y 0.62 Apr-14 0.59 May-14 0.67 0.64 0.8 0.59 1.5 2.36 3.86 [+]
Currency 102.33 Apr-14 102 May-14 102 102 102 102 102 106 108 [+]
Stock Market 14388.77 Apr-14 14557 May-14 14666 14876 15015 15149 15178 16612 17461 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 528044.10 Nov-13 510753 Jun-14 510753 528518 525587 528309 529439 538139 580135 [+]
Gdp Growth Annualized 0.70 Nov-13 4.5 Mar-14 -2.5 0.2 1.5 1.5 2 3.26 3.01 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 108421.70 Nov-13 109442 Mar-14 109442 110484 110694 110528 108191 108753 108783 [+]
Gross National Product 525147.90 Nov-13 529535 Mar-14 529535 529685 528638 527112 643016 983470 3197652 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 Dec-13 1.14 Mar-14 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.03 1.2 1.45 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 Dec-13 3.5 Mar-14 2.45 2 1.5 1.5 1.42 2.08 2.31 [+]
GDP per capita 36938.01 Dec-12 36776 Jun-14 37451 37478 37499 37515 39852 44851 62995 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 31425.49 Dec-12 31288 Jun-14 31862 31885 31903 31916 33904 38157 53594 [+]
GDP 5960.00 Dec-12 6003 Jun-14 6014 6019 6023 6026 6405 7216 10136 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Employed Persons 63320.00 Feb-14 63463 Mar-14 63428 63514 63634 63690 78572 118456 388975 [+]
Job Vacancies 835.16 Feb-14 844 Mar-14 846 870 884 899 899 873 869 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.80 Feb-14 59.22 Mar-14 59.22 60.47 60.34 59.58 59.69 59.67 59.67 [+]
Productivity 107.00 Jan-14 99.63 Feb-14 112 102 106 101 121 184 619 [+]
Retirement Age Men 61.00 Jan-13 61.08 Dec-13 61.92 62.07 62.2 62.32 62.7 63.37 63.48 [+]
Retirement Age Women 61.00 Jan-13 61.08 Dec-13 61.92 62.07 62.2 62.32 62.7 63.37 63.48 [+]
Unemployed Persons 2330.00 Feb-14 2334 Mar-14 2403 2327 2263 2229 2250 2298 2296 [+]
Wages 292.08 Feb-14 310 Mar-14 288 535 670 670 700 732 732 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 326.77 Feb-14 337 Mar-14 324 556 800 800 820 816 816 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.90 Dec-13 6.39 Jan-14 6.23 6.08 5.95 5.81 5.43 4.88 6.33 [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 Feb-14 3.9 Mar-14 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 5.7 6.7 [+]
Population 127.22 Dec-13 127 Jun-14 127 127 127 127 127 126 124 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 100.70 Feb-14 101 Mar-14 102 103 103 103 104 106 110 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.50 Feb-14 101 Mar-14 103 104 104 104 105 107 110 [+]
Export Prices 109.10 Mar-14 108 Mar-14 112 113 112 112 111 111 111 [+]
Gdp Deflator 92.70 Nov-13 91.97 Mar-14 91.97 91.23 90.81 91.5 91.51 91.52 91.52 [+]
Import Prices 127.40 Mar-14 127 Mar-14 130 133 132 130 123 123 123 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 Feb-14 0.1 Mar-14 0.5 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 1.58 2.83 [+]
Producer Prices 102.80 Mar-14 103 Mar-14 103 104 104 104 126 192 629 [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 Feb-14 1.5 Mar-14 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2 2.5 2 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.30 Feb-14 1.5 Mar-14 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.00 Apr-14 0 May-14 0 0 0.01 0.02 0 0 0 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 240784.10 Mar-14 247371 Apr-14 253149 275475 293714 293714 280511 200942 100802 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -4630.00 Apr-14 1900 Apr-14 -306 1705 -1853 -2053 -1762 -1769 -1768 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1279346.00 Mar-14 1278256 Apr-14 1278225 1282042 1295743 1300236 1295307 1279445 1266066 [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 194.00 Apr-14 -2214 May-14 -3140 -4015 -2305 -3531 -1163 -1429 -1429 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.14 Mar-14 0.25 Apr-14 0.25 0.01 0.02 0.28 0.32 0.54 0.96 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 413738.30 Mar-14 414101 Mar-14 415649 410241 414936 419800 425212 431696 425209 [+]
Money Supply M0 82103.00 Mar-14 81900 Mar-14 81875 81433 82028 85479 107566 167704 552379 [+]
Money Supply M1 579499.90 Mar-14 579986 Mar-14 582995 589935 590737 604618 752074 1116185 3660609 [+]
Money Supply M2 863617.40 Mar-14 866749 Mar-14 867623 877842 883012 894965 1133449 1809665 6004787 [+]
Money Supply M3 1176919.20 Mar-14 1180246 Mar-14 1182067 1191031 1200604 1209854 1529566 2454347 8199780 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Capital Flows -7361.00 Feb-14 -8177 Mar-14 -18219 -10776 -13773 -10716 -8861 -3161 -1015 [+]
External Debt 295172.00 Dec-13 297620 Mar-14 297620 302492 304138 308369 306486 300937 300915 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 14226.00 Dec-13 10001 Jan-14 15953 12703 13697 12487 12247 12288 12288 [+]
Japan Exports Australia 137938.00 Mar-14 132603 Mar-14 132603 131743 136829 123685 128115 126230 126390 [+]
Japan Exports China 1156006.00 Mar-14 1190144 Mar-14 1190144 1186105 1178378 1192563 1097492 1107062 1176967 [+]
Terms of Trade 85.60 Mar-14 85.72 Mar-14 86.06 84.63 84.24 84.62 86.69 85.88 84.52 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1050500.00 Mar-14 941032 Mar-14 941032 937048 941782 902002 872341 885112 885456 [+]
Current Account 612.70 Feb-14 -118 Mar-14 191 -774 -509 -1073 -738 -802 -799 [+]
Exports 6382.62 Mar-14 5828 Apr-14 6134 6312 6229 6467 6389 6948 8721 [+]
Imports 7828.88 Mar-14 7493 Apr-14 7759 7971 8032 8051 7777 8628 10818 [+]
Balance of Trade -1446.26 Mar-14 -1683 Apr-14 -1625 -1659 -1803 -1584 -1388 -1680 -2097 [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.70 Dec-13 0.4 Jun-14 0.62 0.55 0.5 0.67 0.39 0.1 0.05 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -7.60 Dec-13 -9.28 Jun-14 -9.28 -9.29 -9.3 -9.3 -8 -5 -5 [+]
Government Budget Value -89157.00 Nov-13 -74285 Mar-14 -74285 -94449 -91854 -77603 -76979 -77242 -77239 [+]
Government Spending 103084.90 Nov-13 103106 Mar-14 103106 103550 103777 103943 128734 194420 638425 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 227.20 Dec-13 228 Dec-14 231 232 233 228 239 248 251 [+]
Credit Rating 81.68 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bankruptcies 814.00 Mar-14 796 Apr-14 930 763 690 679 503 139 37.13 [+]
Capacity Utilization 104.90 Feb-14 105 Mar-14 109 110 108 106 102 104 105 [+]
Car Registrations 417136.00 Mar-14 229136 Apr-14 120222 132359 160197 160197 213145 218396 230750 [+]
Changes in Inventories -2780.10 Nov-13 -2804 Mar-14 -2804 -2930 -2973 -2952 -2946 -2816 -3045 [+]
Coincident Index 113.00 Feb-14 114 Mar-14 114 117 118 118 112 115 114 [+]
Corporate Profits 16190.78 Nov-13 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 57.90 Mar-14 58.84 Apr-14 58.23 58.68 57.37 55.94 54.46 54.89 54.91 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.31 Feb-14 0.25 Mar-14 0.25 0.69 1.15 0.71 0.69 3.99 3.99 [+]
Leading Composite Index 108.90 Feb-14 113 Mar-14 113 114 115 114 111 112 112 [+]
Machinery Orders -8.77 Feb-14 -1.06 Mar-14 -1.06 -2.33 -2.94 -4.59 -4.52 -4.52 -4.52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.90 Mar-14 56.23 Apr-14 60 60.19 57.66 57.46 53.69 55.12 55.45 [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.10 Feb-14 5.69 Dec-13 8.67 9.33 7.9 5.33 3.64 4.15 4.24 [+]
New Orders 862.45 Feb-14 1024 Feb-14 1038 1057 1095 1073 1050 1047 1047 [+]
Industrial Production 7.00 Feb-14 6.9 Feb-14 11.81 14.09 13.69 11.36 6.15 4.19 4.41 [+]
Business Confidence 17.00 Mar-14 10 Jun-14 10 12 15 15 13.53 27.41 29.12 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bank Lending Rate 1.20 Apr-14 1.19 May-14 1.25 1.25 1.28 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17 [+]
Consumer Spending 315031.00 Nov-13 316577 Mar-14 316577 317120 317138 316950 388710 587797 1929962 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 398.28 Feb-14 365 Mar-14 359 596 328 867 1066 1608 5280 [+]
Household Spending -2.50 Feb-14 1.23 Mar-14 -0.2 0.3 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45 [+]
Personal Savings 16.10 Feb-14 5.01 Mar-14 5.01 43.69 7.76 48.57 48.39 16.49 5.29 [+]
Consumer Confidence 37.50 Mar-14 37.21 Apr-14 39.5 42.39 41.56 36.79 41.76 43.9 46 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.30 Feb-14 0.7 Mar-14 -0.5 1.26 -0.14 -0.14 0.24 0.79 1.29 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.65 Feb-14 5.5 Mar-14 -2.5 1.2 1 1 2.77 3.27 3.51 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 38.01 Jan-14 35.64 Jun-14 35.64 35.64 35.64 35.64 35.64 38 38 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 50.84 Jan-14 51 Jun-14 51 51 51 51 52 54 54 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 Jan-14 8 Jun-14 8 8 8 8 10 5 5 [+]
Social Security Rate 28.36 Jan-13 28 Dec-13 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.42 Jan-13 14 Dec-13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.94 Jan-13 14 Dec-13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Orders 12.26 Feb-14 36.92 Mar-14 36.92 26.78 29.23 25.12 25.19 25.17 25.17 [+]
Housing Index 69689.00 Feb-14 82634 Mar-14 82634 99778 94881 93476 90587 91464 91477 [+]
Housing Starts 1.00 Feb-14 8 Feb-14 -6 -10 -8 -8 5 10 11.36 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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This page includes economic forecasts for Japan. 4/24/2014





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