Japan | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.3 0.26 0.5 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.20 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 481.75 479 250 300 432 410 JPY Billion [+]
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 111.73 113 114 117 116 125 [+]
Stock Market 19813.13 18800 18600 18000 18200 15200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.1 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.3 0.26 0.5 0.21 0.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.09 1.7 percent [+]
GDP Growth Annualized 2.20 1 1.5 0.5 0.96 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 4383.10 4510 4510 4510 4870 5150 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 526779.30 528755 528623 530336 529913 531398 JPY Billion [+]
Gross National Product 549234.60 550028 550855 551864 552851 563928 JPY Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 122793.10 123069 123283 123478 123643 109000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP per capita 47150.40 45100 45100 45100 47691 46200 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37872.46 36000 36000 36000 37889 37000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4700.10 5604 5284 4963 5013 5437 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 28188.70 28760 28820 28880 29022 30429 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 103814.20 108312 108307 108302 107843 113000 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 233.30 224 225 225 228 231 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 30779.50 30815 30803 30791 30765 30566 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Services 22201.40 63793 52569 41345 50530 85779 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 24766.70 24522 24768 25014 24945 24808 JPY Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 8424.00 8544 8884 9223 9418 11527 JPY Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Employed Persons 64960.00 65077 65185 65276 65363 66081 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1840.00 1810 1821 1813 1819 1816 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 6853.00 6931 6968 7010 7051 7501 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 20856.00 20863 20872 20872 20871 20871 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 57.90 58.16 58.17 58.09 58.11 58.12 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.60 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 59.74 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.30 1.3 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.72 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.45 4.44 4.44 4.44 4.44 percent [+]
Productivity 98.50 99.99 104 99.7 104 99.67 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 935.67 934 935 936 937 941 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 420.55 389 396 396 395 395 Thousand [+]
Wages 311.58 539 308 672 322 701 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 338.31 556 332 808 350 822 JPY Thousand/Month [+]
Wage Growth -0.40 0.15 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.12 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 823.00 823 823 823 860 900 JPY/Hour [+]
Population 126.86 127 127 127 127 126 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
Retirement Age Men 62.00 62 62 62 62 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.20 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.01 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 99.90 100 101 103 100 113 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 99.80 100 102 103 99.95 111 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.20 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.24 2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.00 104 101 104 101 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 98.40 103 98.78 98.83 98.85 105 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 93.70 92.68 92.68 92.92 92.92 92.89 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 91.40 89.49 89.27 89.39 89.31 89.35 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.50 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.18 1.5 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.10 2.73 3.04 2.74 2.11 1 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 99.80 99.79 99.77 99.75 99.73 99.53 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 97.80 97.71 97.73 97.73 97.73 97.73 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.01 0 0 0 0 0.13 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 95059.70 94917 94954 94937 94946 94944 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 714763.90 713585 717242 718006 718210 718244 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 975541.40 974527 985926 995323 1003926 1096260 JPY Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1295659.70 1302917 1313529 1323987 1334368 1444430 JPY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 497746.30 508949 527394 545508 563391 749223 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1242300.00 1245005 1250277 1253258 1255636 1276979 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 447634.90 447882 447779 447741 447738 447734 JPY Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30 0.31 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.5 percent [+]
Foreign Stock Investment -26.40 23.35 9.29 9.19 9.19 9.19 JPY Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 778.50 238 181 181 181 181 JPY Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 231.10 232 234 235 234 235 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 481.75 479 250 300 432 410 JPY Billion [+]
Exports 6329.20 5765 5850 5900 6605 6450 JPY Billion [+]
Imports 5847.45 5286 5600 5600 6002 6040 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account 2907.70 1239 2003 1702 1908 1847 JPY Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 2.3 3.32 3.13 3.19 2.42 percent [+]
External Debt 399002.00 411326 415852 426755 436537 520907 JPY Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 102.50 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 24228.00 14254 14369 14286 14307 14319 JPY Hundreds Million [+]
Capital Flows 49934.00 17925 20103 20276 20188 20209 JPY HML [+]
Tourism Revenues 14478000.00 15337515 15905155 15628150 15762886 15718805 JPY Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2578900.00 2333516 2353728 2370153 2380088 2394944 [+]
Gold Reserves 765.20 765 765 765 765 765 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 2.45 2.15 2.4 2.65 2.39 0.11 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 3.84 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 250.40 251 251 252 252 255 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -4.63 -4.66 -4.69 -4.66 -4.54 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44416.00 -111978 -39015 -49950 9066 -56668 JPY HND Million [+]
Government Spending 106255.10 106651 107002 107358 107740 112280 JPY Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 46345.80 46349 46449 46548 46649 46423 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 971.00 998 983 996 987 991 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 42.10 42.59 43.12 43.65 43.37 42.88 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 12.00 5 14.12 10 14.35 2 [+]
Services Pmi 52.20 52.6 52.5 52.1 52 50.8 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.00 52.6 52.3 52.4 51.8 51 [+]
Industrial Production 3.50 2.3 2.5 2.86 3.8 4.39 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.90 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.50 1.62 3.76 1.2 3.8 3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 99.80 99.83 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 Index Points [+]
New Orders 947.43 1005 1006 1007 1007 1007 JPY Billion [+]
Machinery Orders 1.40 0.32 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -88.90 -309 73.69 205 437 561 JPY Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 680.00 672 694 691 700 697 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 20757.91 20105 18424 20881 19170 20287 JPY Billion [+]
Coincident Index 114.40 115 115 115 115 115 [+]
Economy Watchers Survey 48.10 47.73 46.85 46.34 45.94 44.85 [+]
Car Production 806967.00 748807 725444 730193 736363 735339 Units [+]
Car Registrations 195874.00 308021 293735 233184 284759 253289 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 105.50 106 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 5.00 8.71 9.46 10.7 9.7 9.69 [+]
Steel Production 8885.38 8763 8694 8708 8718 8716 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment 3.80 6.41 7.5 4.78 4.78 4.94 percent [+]
Mining Production -1.30 -0.92 -1.21 -1.4 -1.49 -1.58 percent [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 20.00 21.03 21.7 22.06 22.36 22.78 [+]
Cement Production 5349.00 5023 5043 5084 5081 5077 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.47 5.47 5.47 5.49 5.44 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 8.00 8 8 8 9 5 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.60 51.5 50.87 51.11 51.21 51.16 [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 71 71 70 71 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 20.00 18 18 18 18 18 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 34.00 36 37 38 39 45 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.20 43.15 42.89 42.87 42.88 42.87 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 0.7 0.03 1.2 0.03 1.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.10 1 1.18 0.5 1.18 0.9 percent [+]
Household Spending -1.30 -0.92 -0.81 0.5 -0.78 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 298122.10 298473 298747 299253 299597 303548 JPY Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 363.02 457 397 444 428 431 JPY Thousand [+]
Personal Savings 3.80 21.46 11.47 19.59 13.95 16.18 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.2 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 62.20 59.83 58.76 58.15 57.77 56.04 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Credit 235780.00 246141 247192 248260 249187 256235 JPY Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.20 1.16 1.1 1.1 1 0.94 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Starts 0.20 4.2 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 percent [+]
Construction Orders 1.10 -7 4.3 3 -1 2.2 percent [+]
Housing Index 112.22 111 112 112 112 113 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.90 61.94 61.98 62.02 62.04 62.03 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95 50.84 54.67 55.95 55.95 55.95 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 29.60 29.25 29.9 30.03 29.95 29.94 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 15.20 15.02 16.43 16.59 16.79 18.54 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.40 14.22 14.43 14.47 14.49 14.6 percent [+]