Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Stock Market 5479.30 Apr-14 5376 May-14 5333 5302 5303 5298 5295 6306 6964 [+]
Currency 0.93 Apr-14 0.95 May-14 0.88 0.86 0.9 0.88 0.85 0.86 0.81 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.97 Apr-14 3.96 May-14 4.56 4.52 4.5 4.57 5 4.23 4.21 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 Dec-13 0.55 Dec-13 0.57 0.59 0.62 0.6 0.6 2.89 2.64 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 Dec-13 2 Dec-13 2.14 2.27 2.5 2.5 3 2.54 2.79 [+]
GDP per capita 37228.20 Dec-12 38149 Jun-14 38073 38194 38310 38422 41113 47808 68515 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35668.77 Dec-12 36551 Jun-14 36477 36593 36704 36811 39388 45793 65610 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 390572.00 Nov-13 403691 Jun-14 403691 407984 411669 414732 436031 476736 564583 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 105451.00 Nov-13 106061 Mar-14 106061 106058 106111 106112 106094 106061 106092 [+]
Gross National Product 370481.00 Nov-13 375223 Mar-14 375223 380299 382299 383272 472808 704830 2312110 [+]
GDP 1520.60 Dec-12 1805 Jun-14 1649 1661 1672 1681 1805 2068 2907 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Unemployment Rate 5.80 Mar-14 5.9 Apr-14 6 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.8 5.8 [+]
Population 22.79 Dec-12 23.01 Dec-13 23 23.04 23.08 23.12 23.27 23.94 24.91 [+]
Employment Change 18146.20 Mar-14 15924 Apr-14 4853 16445 12917 14136 12709 12957 12957 [+]
Employed Persons 11553.15 Mar-14 11502 Mar-14 11529 11495 11463 11421 13947 20979 68891 [+]
Full Time Employment -22101.30 Mar-14 6580 Apr-14 12781 7930 9809 6495 5238 5427 5427 [+]
Job Vacancies 132925.10 Mar-14 135241 Apr-14 125518 127343 125164 125304 128738 127198 127537 [+]
Labour Costs 100.80 Nov-13 99.24 Mar-14 99.24 98.06 98.13 97.87 98.05 98.43 98.45 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.72 Mar-14 64.51 Apr-14 64.5 64.47 64.42 64.39 64.6 64.55 64.55 [+]
Productivity 103.80 Nov-13 104 Mar-14 104 104 105 105 129 193 634 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 Jan-13 65 Dec-13 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 64.50 Jan-13 64.54 Dec-13 64.96 65.03 65.1 65.16 65.35 65.69 65.74 [+]
Unemployed Persons 713.16 Mar-14 734 Mar-14 739 752 762 765 759 745 745 [+]
Wages 1114.20 Dec-13 1129 Mar-14 1129 1141 1250 1250 1300 1455 1845 [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1247.30 Dec-13 1264 Mar-14 1264 1281 1298 1340 1366 1432 1433 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.70 Oct-13 12.63 Nov-13 12.92 12.88 12.88 12.69 12.69 7.58 8.09 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 2.90 Mar-14 2.54 Jun-14 2.54 2.99 2.5 2.97 2 3.16 3.38 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.73 Feb-14 2.78 Jun-14 2.78 2.81 2.81 2.77 2.69 3.03 3.27 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 105.40 Feb-14 107 Jun-14 107 107 107 109 109 115 122 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 105.40 Feb-14 106 Jun-14 106 107 108 108 111 118 126 [+]
Export Prices 93.80 Nov-13 95.09 Mar-14 95.09 95.19 94.38 93.02 93.62 95.26 93.05 [+]
GDP Deflator 101.40 Nov-13 101 Mar-14 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 [+]
Import Prices 104.90 Nov-13 107 Mar-14 107 107 107 106 102 102 106 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 Feb-14 0.97 Jun-14 0.97 0.94 0.83 0.8 0.83 1.13 1.38 [+]
Producer Prices 103.00 Nov-13 103 Mar-14 103 104 104 105 129 194 637 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.88 Nov-13 2.1 Mar-14 2.1 2.2 2.11 1.99 1.66 3.92 3.56 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Central Bank Balance Sheet 130502.00 Apr-14 62070 Mar-14 62070 66380 61668 61179 57128 59097 59171 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 62206.00 Mar-14 64532 Apr-14 57458 62515 61023 61696 57831 59325 59464 [+]
Interbank Rate 2.68 Mar-14 2.75 Apr-14 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.4 4 2.75 2.5 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1904774.00 Feb-14 1914672 Mar-14 1907773 1939088 1968722 1999872 2101636 2315014 2310150 [+]
Money Supply M1 291721.00 Feb-14 291887 Mar-14 293623 298987 305184 308955 385315 572388 1878737 [+]
Money Supply M3 1630285.00 Feb-14 1638961 Mar-14 1629638 1653981 1678490 1701955 2192300 3039335 11114922 [+]
Interest Rate 2.50 Apr-14 2.5 May-14 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3 3.25 4.5 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account -10139.00 Nov-13 -10398 Mar-14 -10398 -10170 -10759 -11024 -11048 -11052 -11111 [+]
Exports 29970.00 Feb-14 29987 Mar-14 29650 30791 31101 30821 35252 54654 180513 [+]
Balance of Trade 1200.00 Feb-14 904 Mar-14 1120 1744 1768 1474 239 1169 5337 [+]
Imports 28770.00 Feb-14 28659 Mar-14 28530 29047 29333 29347 35013 53485 175176 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.90 Dec-13 -2.6 Jun-14 -2.66 -2.51 -2.45 -2.46 -2.84 -0.16 -0.05 [+]
Capital Flows 11480.00 Nov-13 11510 Mar-14 11510 10921 12110 12258 12446 33577 89246 [+]
Crude Oil Production 338.00 Dec-13 307 Nov-13 308 314 315 307 320 317 317 [+]
External Debt 1513019.00 Dec-13 1520983 Mar-14 1520983 1560532 1603668 1672436 1793249 2023195 2065597 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 55972.00 Jun-12 55873 Dec-12 55201 55190 55185 55180 55175 55174 55174 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 Dec-13 79.85 Mar-14 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 [+]
Terms Of Trade 88.10 Nov-13 86.95 Mar-14 86.95 86.67 86.82 86.98 88.62 87.55 87.69 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 627100.00 Feb-14 614733 Mar-14 614733 544111 578350 736254 679869 682234 694805 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Debt To GDP 20.70 Dec-12 18.7 Dec-13 18.47 18.13 17.81 17.52 16.57 14.62 14.18 [+]
Government Budget Value 5506.00 Feb-14 -3024 Mar-14 -3024 -2245 -6968 -4089 -4103 -4096 -4096 [+]
Government Spending 68247.00 Nov-13 69243 Mar-14 69243 69896 70590 70743 87023 130229 427552 [+]
Government Budget -1.20 Jun-13 -1.4 Dec-13 -1.85 0.17 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.08 2.14 [+]
Credit Rating 96.54 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Bankruptcies 739.00 Feb-14 807 Mar-14 875 784 751 654 695 233 74.97 [+]
Capacity Utilization 80.24 Mar-14 80.52 Apr-14 80.51 80.47 80.54 80.62 80.28 80.39 80.38 [+]
Car Registrations 92168.00 Mar-14 93658 Mar-14 92891 91926 92984 93567 116103 174921 574375 [+]
Changes in Inventories -461.00 Nov-13 -896 Mar-14 -896 -1028 -972 -844 -825 -725 -725 [+]
Corporate Profits 68215.00 Nov-13 [+]
Industrial Production 2.77 Dec-13 1.8 Mar-14 1.8 1.57 1.89 2.54 2.55 3.75 3.71 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.89 Mar-14 47.2 Apr-14 50.72 51.42 49.76 49.39 47.68 48.49 48.52 [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.91 Aug-13 -0.88 Dec-13 -0.71 -0.84 -1.06 -1.09 0.16 4 3.95 [+]
New Orders 26.00 Feb-14 27.65 Jun-14 17.49 27.65 28.41 27.55 19.91 20.74 20.66 [+]
Services PMI 48.90 Mar-14 50.12 Apr-14 50.61 51.39 51.77 52.48 50.15 50.34 50.34 [+]
Business Confidence 4.00 Mar-14 4.94 Apr-14 10.89 9.52 9.69 8.42 5.05 12.6 28.27 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 Feb-14 0.44 Mar-14 0.44 1.02 0.82 0.61 0.61 3.91 3.91 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.90 Feb-14 6.77 Jan-15 2.39 3.93 3.71 2.25 2.23 3.94 3.89 [+]
Consumer Spending 208386.00 Nov-13 211492 Mar-14 211492 213766 217433 218069 275082 414813 1362506 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 263428.00 Nov-13 267320 Mar-14 267320 271817 272774 275534 350034 546277 1797991 [+]
Personal Savings 9.70 Nov-13 10.08 Mar-14 10.08 10.02 10 10.04 10.14 3.46 1.1 [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.48 Feb-14 0.43 Mar-14 0.43 0.49 0.54 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 [+]
Consumer Confidence 99.73 Apr-14 100 May-14 104 98.5 98.15 96.58 101 133 139 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 Jan-14 30 Jun-14 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 Jan-14 45 Jun-14 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 Jan-14 10 Jun-14 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 [+]
Social Security Rate 10.75 Jan-14 11 Jun-14 11 11 11 11 10 11 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.50 Jan-14 2 Jun-14 2 2 2 2 2 2 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.25 Jan-14 9 Jun-14 9 9 9 10 9 9 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Building Permits -5.00 Feb-14 2.58 Jan-14 2.29 1.89 0.61 1.55 1.59 1.58 1.58 [+]
Housing Index 3.40 Nov-13 2.82 Feb-14 2.81 2.61 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.55 2.45 [+]
New Home Sales 6386.00 Feb-14 7833 Mar-14 7833 6935 6593 5946 5839 5863 5865 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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This page includes economic forecasts for Australia. 4/24/2014





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