Australia | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.78 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.70 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 3107.00 -2220 3400 -2900 3410 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 39 42.86 43.62 43.99 45.91 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 0.74 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.65 [+]
Stock Market 5759.51 5810 5750 5580 5640 4700 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.48 2.71 2.73 2.76 2.79 3.22 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.78 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 1339.54 1410 1410 1500 1292 1720 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 422505.00 427459 429632 432085 434376 460192 AUD Million [+]
Gross National Product 417164.00 425631 427513 429635 431842 458979 AUD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 103943.00 104501 104385 104647 104669 105832 AUD Million [+]
GDP per capita 54688.45 56000 56000 56000 55370 59160 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 43631.20 44370 44370 44370 44100 46000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 10975.00 10724 10476 10189 10030 10130 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 31849.00 31439 31513 31467 31491 31507 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24296.00 24249 24284 24348 24341 24330 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 29336.00 30127 30359 30703 31018 34555 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 23034.00 23270 23358 23497 23631 24975 AUD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 10658.00 10734 10756 10787 10813 11107 AUD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.70 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 12099.30 12131 12186 12236 12282 12597 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 732.28 741 705 742 742 743 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 48960.00 6000 5000 7283 7333 6900 Persons [+]
Full Time Employment -11600.00 23052 11594 8120 7230 6840 Persons [+]
Employment Change 37400.00 -1200 10000 18600 20247 15600 Persons [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 64.80 64.79 64.9 64.78 64.78 64.78 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.80 12.9 12.86 12.85 12.85 12.84 percent [+]
Productivity 101.90 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 99.30 99.44 99.01 98.69 98.68 97.52 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 186.40 190 192 192 192 191 Thousand [+]
Job Advertisements 169268.16 170718 172988 174472 175462 177450 [+]
Wages 1163.50 1173 1178 1182 1186 1233 AUD/Week [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 1295.10 1311 1319 1327 1334 1419 AUD/Week [+]
Wage Growth 1.90 2.4 1.92 2.9 1.98 3.3 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 672.70 680 687 690 672 760 AUD/week [+]
Population 24.13 24.1 24.19 24.28 24.28 25.62 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65 65.5 65.5 65.5 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 5350.00 5535 5537 5537 5538 5538 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2582.40 2588 2588 2588 2588 2588 AUD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 2260.43 2235 2229 2231 2230 2231 AUD/Month [+]
Employment Rate 61.02 60.62 60.74 60.86 60.85 60.82 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 110.50 111 112 112 113 119 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 111.65 112 113 113 114 120 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.76 1.82 1.8 2.08 2.1 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 103.06 105 105 105 105 110 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.30 108 108 109 109 114 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.30 1.1 1 1.1 1.83 1.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 94.10 94.65 91.72 87.61 84.71 87.99 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.90 104 104 104 104 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.80 0.7 0.8 1 1.13 3 percent [+]
Inflation Expectations 4.00 3.98 4 4.01 4.01 4.01 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.98 1.73 1.87 3 1.81 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 104.57 105 104 105 104 105 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 343.95 348 352 356 359 399 AUD Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 1994.82 2026 2056 2086 2116 2427 AUD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 4105.50 4135 4151 4160 4161 4221 AUD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 185659.00 187047 186863 186862 186862 186862 AUD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 79855.00 79079 77157 76043 75509 75072 AUD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 877.67 882 886 889 892 911 AUD Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.10 2.93 2.16 3.27 2.14 3.97 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 223.38 226 225 224 224 222 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 3107.00 -2220 3400 -2900 3410 -3910 AUD Million [+]
Exports 33343.00 26200 33831 26800 33839 28500 AUD Million [+]
Imports 30235.00 30110 30216 29700 30253 32400 AUD Million [+]
Current Account -3853.00 -16700 -9827 -17900 -13294 -22900 AUD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -2.5 -3.19 percent [+]
External Debt 1926696.00 1980877 2009676 2037172 2062250 2339507 AUD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 102.90 109 109 107 106 106 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 64825.00 51573 49598 47623 49434 50650 AUD Million [+]
Capital Flows 3218.00 8272 8170 4367 5889 6059 AUD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 768500.00 759355 789795 787960 781888 783766 [+]
Gold Reserves 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 79.85 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 268.00 283 285 285 285 285 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 2.74 2.92 2.99 3.05 2.97 3.05 [+]
Weapons Sales 127.00 93.22 102 110 104 100 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.10 39 42.86 43.62 43.99 45.91 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.3 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -1122.00 -5220 -4234 -4116 -3909 -3175 AUD Million [+]
Government Spending 77999.00 79117 79523 79968 80421 85302 AUD Million [+]
Government Revenues 36128.00 38440 35649 37968 35362 37569 AUD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 37250.00 36839 36712 36679 36680 36681 AUD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 27793.00 28387 28676 28964 28956 29324 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 1519.00 1673 1673 1673 1673 1673 Persons [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 36.20 35.55 35.68 35.8 35.65 34.68 percent [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 13.00 4 6 8 6.91 6 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 59.20 54.1 59.14 55 59.16 52 [+]
Services PMI 53.00 49.8 51.61 51.2 51.54 50.2 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.10 1.04 2.05 1.25 1.56 1.16 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 0.89 0.7 0.48 0.51 0.55 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.80 -2.24 -2.23 -2.76 -2.83 -2.31 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.29 81.52 81.53 81.51 81.51 81.51 percent [+]
New Orders 42.00 22.25 39.52 27.73 38.13 26.65 [+]
Changes in Inventories 552.00 449 447 429 428 425 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 576.00 679 673 670 669 669 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 77773.00 79881 78470 64900 76069 59900 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 97136.00 96906 96586 96691 96758 101000 [+]
Car Production 6937.00 11700 12286 10700 11741 12700 Units [+]
Car Registrations 13815.11 13936 14002 14067 14130 14821 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.10 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0 0.1 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 9.06 7.9 6.68 6.92 5.72 6.42 [+]
Steel Production 429.01 427 422 423 424 424 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Private Investment -2.10 0.04 0.37 0.66 0.66 1.37 percent [+]
Mining Production 6.10 2.64 7.08 6.09 7.72 5.59 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.19 5.17 5.17 5.17 5.16 5.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 22.00 21 21 21 22 22 [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.4 0.53 0.6 0.53 0.4 percent [+]
Corruption Index 79.00 79 79 79 79 79 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 13.00 12 12 12 12 8 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 15.00 13.64 14.02 14.41 14.41 13.34 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.99 98.03 98.13 103 98.12 108 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 0.27 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 4.2 2.22 4.6 2.1 3.6 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 240561.00 243137 244555 245656 246800 254933 AUD Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 288116.00 292791 294815 296837 298792 319901 AUD Million [+]
Personal Savings 5.20 5.72 5.82 5.84 5.77 5.79 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 2592.53 2622 2651 2679 2707 2976 AUD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 0.30 0.4 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 123.10 123 123 123 123 122 percent of GDP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 8.65 8.67 8.69 10 8.72 11 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.98 0.74 0.99 0.9 0.98 0.93 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits -13.40 0.63 0.18 1.5 0.36 0.36 percent [+]
New Home Sales 7313.00 7250 7200 7000 7460 7450 [+]
Housing Index 4.10 4.04 2.51 3.47 2.59 3.72 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 67.00 66.86 66.75 66.65 66.58 65.5 percent [+]
Construction Output -0.70 0.3 0.81 2.2 0.85 0.85 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 51.90 51 49.67 55 48.15 49 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 29.98 30 29.96 27.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 47 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 10.00 10 10 10 10 10 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.50 11.25 11.31 11.23 11.11 11.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 9.50 9.25 9.43 9.5 9.5 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00 2 2 2 2 2.5 percent [+]