New Zealand | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.20 5.1 5 4.9 5 5.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.18 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -18.29 -153 -173 -179 -180 -181 NZD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.71 23.65 23.59 23.47 22.32 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.6 [+]
Stock Market 7354.61 7140 7070 6850 6930 5770 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.07 3.19 3.22 3.25 3.29 3.79 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.68 0.68 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.52 2.3 percent [+]
GDP 173.75 180 180 180 162 250 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 58178.00 58611 58693 58815 58875 59119 NZD Million [+]
Gross National Product 61130.00 62102 62504 62653 62879 63279 NZD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14370.00 14554 14623 14692 14759 15454 NZD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36801.40 36940 37037 36940 37205 38420 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35158.64 35150 35150 35150 35322 36100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 3145.00 3103 3112 3126 3145 3151 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 3575.00 3587 3573 3580 3577 3578 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5754.00 5725 5719 5736 5727 5731 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Mining 781.00 810 812 816 811 808 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2449.00 2470 2483 2489 2498 2563 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Services 38459.00 38982 39225 39461 39692 42100 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 2450.00 2478 2468 2485 2472 2480 NZD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 1615.00 1618 1612 1617 1613 1615 NZD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.20 5.1 5 4.9 5 5.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2510.00 2550 2565 2577 2588 2636 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 139.00 141 142 142 144 143 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.80 0.82 0.86 0.95 0.9 0.94 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.50 70.67 70.75 70.83 70.9 71.39 percent [+]
Labour Costs 1137.00 1146 1150 1155 1159 1206 Index Points [+]
Productivity 166.55 167 167 167 167 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 153.10 158 161 164 166 170 Index Points [+]
Job Advertisements 41914.34 42262 42629 42848 42992 43245 [+]
Wages 29.80 30.03 30.13 30.16 30.26 31.04 NZD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 28.71 18.1 -146 12.07 -147 9.5 NZD Million/Quarter [+]
Minimum Wages 15.75 15.25 15.25 15.25 16 16.75 NZD/Hour [+]
Population 4.75 4.63 4.65 4.67 4.67 4.79 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Employment Rate 66.90 67.26 67.29 67.43 67.42 67.58 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 1981.00 2022 2040 2055 2068 2137 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 528.00 532 530 532 531 531 Thousand [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 12.35 12.53 12.96 12.84 12.76 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.18 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.6 0.56 0.45 0.41 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 1226.00 1232 1238 1243 1248 1293 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 1227.00 1233 1239 1245 1250 1308 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.16 2.29 2.52 2.2 1.89 1.88 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 1152.00 1161 1166 1167 1169 1172 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 1059.00 1069 1073 1076 1078 1083 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 1040.00 1067 1070 1060 1058 1057 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 764.00 768 769 771 772 771 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 1085.00 1093 1082 1095 1088 1093 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 1.28 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.23 2.24 2.29 2.32 2.32 2.32 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 213058.00 112805 90938 75630 63156 10859 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 58638.00 57119 58189 59702 61253 77675 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 150882.00 153070 153875 154562 155212 160407 NZD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 271696.00 260892 260384 260314 260311 260312 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 25666.00 25528 25529 25525 25526 25526 NZD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 510812.00 512150 512305 512450 512468 512493 NZD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20 3.45 3.32 3.2 3.19 3.42 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 26043.00 26165 26184 26179 26177 26178 NZD Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 94779.00 96818 97672 98444 99148 103733 NZD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -18.29 -153 -173 -179 -180 -181 NZD Million [+]
Exports 4005.54 3947 3974 3962 3963 3965 NZD Million [+]
Imports 4023.82 4320 4337 4310 4307 4310 NZD Million [+]
Current Account -2335.00 -949 -4698 -2301 1258 -2187 NZD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -4.08 -4.08 -4.08 -4.19 -5.37 percent [+]
External Debt 261128.00 263714 265000 266132 267308 278661 NZD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 1362.00 1371 1381 1374 1362 1354 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -2568.00 1660 3013 427 974 1749 NZD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 680.00 562 430 463 452 467 NZD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 343799.00 219025 278733 317820 281346 285131 [+]
Crude Oil Production 33.00 33.19 33.18 33.18 33.18 33.18 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 7.00 0.31 -5.07 -10.46 -13.25 -17.42 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 0.23 0.1 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.44 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 24.60 23.71 23.65 23.59 23.47 22.32 percent [+]
Government Budget 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.9 -0.2 -2.15 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 1831.00 2152 2385 2618 2542 590 NZD Million [+]
Government Spending 10994.00 11089 11147 11197 11251 11815 NZD Million [+]
Government Revenues 98159.00 99264 100084 100904 101732 109477 NZD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 95880.00 94646 95348 96050 96361 98746 NZD Milliom [+]
Asylum Applications 41.00 35.25 36.51 36.06 36.23 36.2 Persons [+]
Government Debt 61880.00 60180 60691 61201 60879 57386 NZD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 2446.70 2408 2426 2443 2422 2329 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 11.30 11.05 9.55 8.48 7.61 4.44 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.80 56.29 56.29 56.29 56.32 56.34 [+]
Industrial Production 2.30 2 2.81 3.52 3.67 2.75 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 93.60 93.51 93.85 93.43 93.15 93.19 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 906.00 250 258 114 125 166 NZD Million [+]
Car Registrations 5888.00 5245 5280 5156 5279 5164 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.31 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.33 5.29 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 13.00 15 15 15 13 17 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.40 57.04 57.09 57.12 57.13 57.13 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 1.00 1 1 1 1 1 [+]
Corruption Index 90.00 89 89 88 88 89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 1.00 2 2 1 1 2 [+]
Services Pmi 59.00 59.33 59.51 59.61 59.68 59.8 [+]
Steel Production 50.03 53.34 52.24 52.28 52.24 52.24 Thousand Tonnes [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.90 111 112 112 112 112 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.65 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.81 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 4.05 4.36 4.79 4.59 4.65 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 35298.00 36000 36208 36476 36651 37822 NZD Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 411567.00 420343 426517 432549 438495 497887 NZD Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.35 9.46 9.52 9.54 9.53 9.51 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 248163.00 255501 259821 264081 268281 310787 NZD Million [+]
Households Debt To Income 167.90 170 171 172 173 181 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 2605.00 2434 2460 2458 2453 2454 [+]
Housing Index 1.70 0.64 0.94 0.85 0.88 0.87 percent [+]
Construction Output 20.90 15.6 14.7 14.69 15.53 17.11 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 64.80 64.65 64.58 64.5 64.43 62.86 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00 28 28 28 28 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00 33 32.96 32.93 32.93 32.93 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00 8 8 8 8 8 percent [+]