New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade fell 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s improvement and way below expectations of a 0.3% increase. The deterioration reflected weaker relative export prices, which fell 1.6%, against a 0.5% increase in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods rose 3.0% to $19.1 billion amid higher export volumes, while import values edged up 0.1% to $19.4 billion as import volumes fell 1.2%. The weaker terms of trade indicate reduced purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite rising export volumes. source: Statistics New Zealand

Terms of Trade in New Zealand increased to 1567 points in the second quarter of 2025 from 1506 points in the first quarter of 2025. Terms of Trade in New Zealand averaged 1106.17 points from 1957 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 1567.00 points in the second quarter of 2025 and a record low of 796.00 points in the fourth quarter of 1975. This page provides - New Zealand Terms of Trade - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. New Zealand Terms of Trade - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Terms of Trade in New Zealand increased to 1567 points in the second quarter of 2025 from 1506 points in the first quarter of 2025. Terms of Trade in New Zealand is expected to be 1578.54 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the New Zealand Terms of Trade is projected to trend around 1576.34 points in 2026 and 1576.05 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-09-01 10:45 PM
Terms of Trade QoQ
Q2 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4%
2025-12-01 09:45 PM
Terms of Trade QoQ
Q3 -2.1% 4.2% 0.3% 3.5%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Balance of Trade 52.00 -335.00 NZD Million Dec 2025
Capital Flows 4653.00 2748.00 NZD Million Sep 2025
Current Account -8370.00 -1300.00 NZD Million Sep 2025
Current Account to GDP -5.70 -6.60 percent of GDP Dec 2024
Exports 7650.00 6810.00 NZD Million Dec 2025
Foreign Direct Investment 620.00 2171.00 NZD Million Sep 2025
Imports 7600.00 7150.00 NZD Million Dec 2025
Terms of Trade 1567.00 1506.00 points Jun 2025
Tourism Revenues 3300.00 3612.00 NZD Million Sep 2025
Visitor Arrivals YoY 347577.00 262731.00 Nov 2025


New Zealand Terms of Trade
In New Zealand, Terms of Trade (ToT) correspond to the ratio of Price of exportable goods to the Price of importable goods.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1567.00 1506.00 1567.00 796.00 1957 - 2025 points Quarterly
NSA, 2002Q2=1000

News Stream
NZ Terms of Trade Miss Expectations in Q3
New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade fell 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s improvement and way below expectations of a 0.3% increase. The deterioration reflected weaker relative export prices, which fell 1.6%, against a 0.5% increase in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods rose 3.0% to $19.1 billion amid higher export volumes, while import values edged up 0.1% to $19.4 billion as import volumes fell 1.2%. The weaker terms of trade indicate reduced purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite rising export volumes.
2025-12-01
NZ Terms of Trade Surpass Expectations in Q2
New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade rose 4.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2025, accelerating from a 1.9% increase in the first quarter and beating market forecasts of 1.9%. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which edged up 0.2%, against a sharper 3.7% fall in import prices, partly driven by lower fuel and consumer goods costs. In value terms, exports declined 4.8% to $18.6 billion amid softer dairy and meat shipments, while imports slipped 1.2% to $19.4 billion as demand for capital goods eased. The stronger terms of trade indicate improved purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite weaker trade volumes.
2025-09-01
NZ Terms of Trade Rise 1.9% in Q1, Miss Forecasts
The merchandise (goods) terms of trade in New Zealand increased 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in the March 2025 quarter, easing from a revised 3.1% increase in Q4 2024 and missing market forecasts for a similar 3.1% rise. Export prices climbed 7.1%, driven by a 10% jump in dairy prices — the country’s top export — including a 13% surge in milk powder prices. Meanwhile, import prices rose 5.1%, largely due to a 21.3% spike in the cost of non-fuel crude materials.
2025-06-02