Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 9.50 9.4 9.3 9.1 9 7.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 30899.90 30000 21000 28000 26000 20000 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 89 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 1.12 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 0.86 [+]
Stock Market 3576.53 3460 3420 3320 3350 2790 points [+]
Government Bond 10y -0.42 -0.44 -0.45 -0.45 -0.46 -0.53 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 2 percent [+]
GDP 11602.40 12400 12600 12800 13000 14800 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2542.75 2580 2590 2600 2610 2930 EUR Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 508.06 507 510 512 514 530 EUR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 38589.44 38900 39000 39100 39200 41300 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 37722.04 37800 37900 38000 38100 40200 USD [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.50 9.4 9.3 9.1 9 7.7 percent [+]
Unemployed Persons 15395.00 15100 14900 14700 14600 14200 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 153.88 154 155 155 155 161 Million [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.40 19.2 19 18.8 18.6 16.2 percent [+]
Productivity 103.60 105 106 107 108 115 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 112.20 110 103 114 99.3 120 Index Points [+]
Wages 1681.00 1820 1840 1860 1880 2030 EUR/Month [+]
Wage Growth 1.60 1.8 2 2.3 2.2 2.8 percent [+]
Population 339.89 340 340 341 341 346 Million [+]
Full Time Employment 112867.40 113200 113600 113800 114200 119000 Thousand [+]
Employment Change 0.30 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.10 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 60 percent [+]
Part Time Employment 31101.30 31300 31300 31400 31400 34200 Thousand [+]
Retirement Age Men 64.63 64.63 64.59 64.6 64.65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 63.94 63.94 63.88 63.94 63.88 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.04 103 104 105 107 119 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.25 104 105 107 108 120 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 107.08 109 110 111 112 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 104.50 108 110 112 114 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.90 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.2 percent [+]
Import Prices 104.30 102 102 102 105 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 100.82 101 101 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 102.47 103 104 106 107 119 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.37 -0.32 -0.24 -0.16 -0.07 0.8 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 7389683.00 7620000 7750000 7850000 8052681 10900000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 10876141.00 10760000 10840000 10900000 11446036 11800000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 11581365.00 11900000 12000000 12100000 12211830 15900000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 346031.00 356000 360000 367000 346095 389000 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4170588.00 4220000 4350000 4560000 4660000 6020000 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10758585.00 10940000 10980000 11000000 10989955 11700000 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1 percent [+]
Loan Growth 2.40 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.9 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 30899.90 30000 21000 28000 26000 20000 EUR Million [+]
Exports 202279.60 181000 175000 177000 178000 172000 EUR Million [+]
Imports 171379.70 151000 154000 149000 152000 152000 EUR Million [+]
Current Account 44.80 34.5 34.8 48.2 32.2 37.4 EUR Billion [+]
Current Account to GDP 3.70 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.92 1.9 percent [+]
External Debt 13558785.12 13600000 13700000 13800000 13900000 14900000 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 42.26 60.2 15.2 54.5 27.24 41.2 EUR Billion [+]
Gold Reserves 504.77 505 505 505 505 505 Tonnes [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.20 89 89 89 88.7 87.8 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.50 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Spending 531.23 537 540 542 540 566 EUR Billion [+]
Government Spending to GDP 47.70 49.1 48.8 48.6 48.5 46.8 percent [+]
Government Debt 9440246.00 9720000 9770000 9830000 9880000 11200000 EUR Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 1.09 0.66 0.47 0.25 0.36 1.2 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.70 55.8 54.1 53.7 54.5 53.1 [+]
Services PMI 56.40 54.9 53.4 52.7 54.4 53.3 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 56.80 55.4 54.6 53.9 54.2 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.60 2.2 2 1.7 2.3 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.60 82.6 82.8 82.9 83 84.8 percent [+]
Changes In Inventories 4.26 7.79 8.28 8.04 7.46 6.03 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 35.10 18 16 12 17 36 [+]
Car Registrations 903.32 798 897 904 898 948 Thousand [+]
Mining Production -8.80 -0.2 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.1 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence -3.30 -5.8 -7.2 -9.2 -10 -2.4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.2 1 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1388.08 1380 1390 1390 1408 1400 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1674881.00 1690000 1700000 1710000 1705635 1780000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 11.98 11.6 11.4 11.1 11 10.5 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 12975601.90 12960000 13040000 13100000 13358055 14000000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.25 2.38 2.45 2.68 2.77 3.67 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 109.60 108 107 106 106 107 [+]
Consumer Credit 627190.12 628000 636000 647000 634164 701000 EUR Million [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 58.70 57.8 57.4 57.2 57 53.7 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 93.55 91.98 91.95 91.92 91.56 87.07 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 3.60 0.3 0.5 0.7 1 2.3 percent [+]
Housing Index 103.75 105 106 107 108 112 Index Points [+]
Construction Pmi 52.50 52.8 52.2 52 52.6 52 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 66.40 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.30 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 42.00 42 42 42 42 42 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 20.80 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 percent [+]