Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 1.38 Apr-14 1.39 May-14 1.35 1.32 1.3 1.39 1.3 1.33 1.33 [+]
Government Bond 10y 1.02 Apr-14 1.15 May-14 0.57 0.39 2.45 0.12 1.5 0.37 0.61 [+]
Stock Market 3199.69 Apr-14 3125 May-14 3096 3001 2903 2816 2625 3211 3327 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 2135.62 Nov-13 2117 Feb-14 2123 2125 2126 2127 4283 16906 748678 [+]
GDP per capita 31948.97 Dec-12 31776 Jun-14 31717 31697 31679 31664 33912 38841 57728 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35392.52 Dec-11 38364 Jun-14 37734 37906 38069 38223 41425 49437 74772 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 Dec-13 0.4 Mar-14 0.4 0.48 0.55 0.42 0.32 2.83 2.62 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.50 Dec-13 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.65 0 0 0.5 2.75 2.75 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 383.46 Nov-13 375 Mar-14 370 372 372 361 369 364 351 [+]
GDP 12194.82 Dec-12 11470 Jun-14 11441 11381 11332 11291 12016 13659 20299 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 332.88 Dec-12 334 Dec-13 334 334 334 335 335 338 342 [+]
Employed Persons 145.02 Nov-13 144 Nov-13 144 144 144 144 289 1143 50733 [+]
Labour Costs 114.10 Nov-13 115 Mar-14 115 115 115 115 114 114 115 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 5.90 Sep-13 6.37 Dec-13 6.47 6.62 6.64 6.8 6.69 6.42 6.33 [+]
Productivity 104.20 Nov-13 104 Mar-14 105 105 105 105 105 107 114 [+]
Unemployed Persons 18.85 Feb-14 18.79 Mar-14 18.9 18.84 18.76 18.69 18.48 17.55 16.85 [+]
Wages 726969.00 Aug-13 728641 Dec-13 731077 733197 734203 736562 739486 727334 729844 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.50 Feb-14 23.8 Mar-14 23.75 23.66 23.62 23.59 23.56 22.65 22.19 [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.90 Feb-14 12 Mar-14 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 10.8 10.3 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 0.50 Mar-14 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.43 0.33 0.36 0.75 3.92 3.92 [+]
Consumer Price Index (cpi) 118.13 Mar-14 118 Apr-14 118 118 118 118 120 125 134 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 113.23 Mar-14 113 Apr-14 113 113 113 113 115 119 128 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.70 Mar-14 0.84 Apr-14 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.74 1.06 1.31 [+]
Gdp Deflator 112.60 Nov-13 113 Mar-14 113 114 114 114 115 113 91.58 [+]
Import Prices 102.00 Feb-14 102 Mar-14 102 101 101 101 102 102 102 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.94 Mar-14 0.19 Apr-14 0.02 0.18 0.17 0.47 0.17 0.47 0.72 [+]
Producer Prices 107.56 Feb-14 107 Mar-14 107 107 107 107 109 111 117 [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.70 Feb-14 -2 Mar-14 -2.37 -2.35 -2.02 -1.43 0.22 0.77 1.25 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Foreign Exchange Reserves 338987.00 Feb-14 333790 Feb-14 328900 327109 328358 327896 328032 324468 324456 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.31 Mar-14 0.25 Feb-14 0.02 0.04 0.31 0.34 0.44 0.92 1.89 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10544849.00 Feb-14 10509873 Feb-14 10484104 10392813 10321564 10235894 9994596 10404644 10130957 [+]
Money Supply M1 5493181.00 Feb-14 5521448 Feb-14 5515308 5617831 5712972 5752512 12156073 41043083 1958249602 [+]
Money Supply M2 9273330.00 Feb-14 9302143 Feb-14 9321317 9353346 9409318 9493966 19424700 84421201 4126964848 [+]
Money Supply M3 9917831.00 Feb-14 9930290 Feb-14 9916472 9955995 9987219 9995753 20201528 78989435 3507153832 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2167801.00 Apr-14 2049116 May-14 2020561 1921765 1947303 1925215 2150651 2123879 2134596 [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 Apr-14 0.25 Jun-14 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.08 0.25 0.65 1.61 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account to GDP 1.50 Dec-12 1.96 Dec-13 1.74 1.64 1.55 1.47 1.41 0.1 0.05 [+]
Current Account 13.87 Feb-14 9017 Mar-14 9634 7297 9828 5894 4828 -56372 -344524 [+]
Capital Flows -9.50 Feb-14 -13.65 Mar-14 -21.97 -18.51 -23.72 -13.08 -24.14 -22.86 -21.65 [+]
External Debt 11625571.00 Dec-13 11733722 Mar-14 11728593 11646616 11550428 11556480 11461695 11531018 11530526 [+]
Gold Reserves 502.07 Dec-13 [+]
Balance of Trade 13604.20 Feb-14 11124 Mar-14 16262 13512 13770 15273 13280 13927 14658 [+]
Imports 139730.20 Feb-14 146661 Mar-14 144836 146259 139551 149121 141329 143961 152399 [+]
Exports 153334.40 Feb-14 168390 Mar-14 161098 159771 153322 164394 154610 157888 167057 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Spending 417.03 Nov-13 411 Mar-14 401 406 407 414 419 430 454 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 92.60 Dec-13 93.5 Jun-14 93.5 93.88 96 94.55 95.4 97.36 97.69 [+]
Credit Rating 13.59 [+]
Government Budget -3.00 Dec-13 -2.66 Jun-14 -2.72 -2.63 -2.55 -2.48 -2.35 -2.21 -2.21 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Capacity Utilization 80.00 Feb-14 78.09 May-14 78.82 78.95 78.96 78.83 78.06 78.63 78.45 [+]
Business Confidence 0.39 Mar-14 0.45 Apr-14 0.85 0.99 0.99 0.81 -0.16 1.05 -0.14 [+]
Industrial Production 1.70 Feb-14 2.64 Mar-14 2.64 3.38 3.5 3.06 0.21 3.79 3.92 [+]
Car Registrations 729.00 Mar-14 725 Apr-14 748 739 763 745 761 780 825 [+]
Changes In Inventories -6.68 Nov-13 -1.69 Mar-14 -0.55 -1.94 -2.21 -1.73 -1.63 -1.71 -1.71 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 Feb-14 -0.09 Mar-14 0.12 0.14 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.37 0.62 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.30 Apr-14 53.56 May-14 55.26 55.86 55.23 55.28 52.11 53.3 53.24 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.60 Feb-14 3.79 Mar-14 5.01 5.59 5.33 4.61 1.44 3.76 3.71 [+]
Sentix Investors Sentiment 14.08 Apr-14 16.11 May-14 19.6 24.3 24.73 24.9 13.22 16.53 16.15 [+]
Services PMI 53.10 Apr-14 54.27 May-14 54.34 55.25 55.5 55.23 53.51 53.54 53.51 [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 61.20 Apr-14 60.99 May-14 79.3 77.82 73.71 79.78 51.78 58.64 61.52 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Spending 1397.95 Nov-13 1365 Nov-13 1379 1383 1396 1403 2837 11006 490397 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.39 Feb-14 -0.02 Mar-14 0.21 0.09 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.48 0.73 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.80 Feb-14 0.57 Mar-14 1.68 2.04 1.96 1.98 1.42 1.75 1.99 [+]
Consumer Confidence -8.70 Apr-14 -8.3 May-14 -5.32 -4.04 -4.25 -4.14 -10.17 -8.34 -8.44 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1568805.00 Aug-13 1572028 Dec-13 1582262 1586224 1587467 1591926 1614501 1648296 1743480 [+]
Personal Savings 12.98 Aug-13 12.97 Dec-13 13.02 12.98 12.99 13.01 12.95 12.33 11.68 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 25.90 Jan-13 26 Dec-13 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 44.50 Jan-13 45 Dec-13 46 46 47 47 48 51 54 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Output 6.70 Feb-14 3.79 Mar-14 6.98 7.93 9.47 8.15 7.71 8.33 8.71 [+]
Housing Index 96.67 Nov-13 96.08 Mar-14 95.98 96.08 95.8 95.62 96.08 96.46 96.56 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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Euro Area Inflation Rate Confirmed at 0.5% in March  
Euro area annual inflation was 0.5 percent in March of 2014, matching initial estimates and slowing from 0.7 percent in February. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.9 percent, up from 0.3 percent in the previous month.
Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens in February On Rising Exports  
The first estimate for the Euro Area trade in goods balance with the rest of the world in February of 2014 gave a € 13.6 billion surplus, compared with € +9.8 bn in February of 2013. The January 2014 balance was € +0.8 bn.
Euro Area Industrial Production Up 1.7% YoY  
In February of 2014, Euro Area industrial output advanced 1.7 percent on a yearly basis, slightly up from a revised 1.6 percent growth rate in January. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.2 percent, rebounding from a revised flat growth in the previous month.
ECB Holds Rates Steady  
At its April 3rd meeting, the ECB left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.25 percent, as widely expected, despite deflation fears. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also left unchanged at 0.75 percent and 0.00 percent, respectively.
Euro Area GDP Growth Revised Down in Q4  
The Euro Area economy advanced 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2013, according to the third estimate released by the Eurostat. The final figure comes below a 0.3 percent expansion earlier reported, as growth of exports and imports was revised.
Euro Area Unemployment Rate Steady in February  
The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.9 percent in February 2014, unchanged from a downward revised 11.9 percent in January and steady since October of 2013. It was 12.0 percent in February of 2013.
Euro Area Inflation Rate Slows Again in March  
Euro Area annual inflation is expected to be 0.5 percent in March of 2014, down from 0.7 percent in February, according to a flash estimate. It is the lowest rate since November of 2009.
Euro Area Trade Surplus Narrows in January  
Euro Area recorded a € 900 million trade surplus in January of 2014, compared with a € 13.8 billion surplus a month earlier, as imports surged 8.6 percent. January's reading is above the € 5.4 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year.
Euro Area Inflation Rate Back to 0.7% in February  
Euro Area annual inflation came back to a 4-year low of 0.7 percent in February of 2014, revised downwards from a preliminary 0.8 percent. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.3 percent.
Euro Area Industrial Production Up 2.1% YoY in January  
Euro Area industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 2.1 percent over a year earlier in January of 2014, compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month. On a monthly basis, production shrank for the second straight month by 0.2 percent on falling energy output.
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US Durable Goods Orders Surge in March  
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $234.8 billion. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 2.1 percent February increase.
US Jobless Claims Rise in Latest Week  
In the week ending April 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 329,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Central Bank of Turkey Leaves Main Rates on Hold  
The Monetary Policy Committee decided on April 24th, 2014, to leave the one-week repo rate on hold at 10.0 percent for the third straight meeting. The Central Bank said it will maintain the current policy stance until there is a significant improvement in the outlook for inflation.
Swiss Trade Surplus Narrows Further in March  
The trade surplus decreased 10.6 percent in March of 2014 from the previous month to CHF 2.1 billion as imports rose at a higher pace than exports. Compared with a year earlier, the trade balance increased by 17.2 percent, driven by stronger sales of pharmaceuticals and chemicals products, and machinery to Europe and China.
Polish Unemployment Rate Falls in March  
Poland’s jobless rate dropped for the second straight month in March of 2014 to 13.5 percent, down from 13.9 percent in February and below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment was recorded at 14.3 percent.
South Korean Economy Expands at a Fastest Pace  
In the first quarter of 2014, South Korea’s GDP accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to an annual 3.9 percent growth rate, driven by exports.
South Korea GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q1  
South Korean GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2014, the same rate recorded in the previous quarter and above market expectations.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Increases Interest Rate to 3.0%  
At its April 23rd, 2014 meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the benchmark interest rate for the second straight meeting by 25 bps to 3.0 percent, as inflationary pressures were increasing and were expected to continue doing so over the next two years.
US New Home Sales Fall Sharply in March  
Sales of new single-family houses dropped 14.5 percent in March of 2014 to their lowest level in eight months. Sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, below the revised February rate of 449,000.
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This page includes economic forecasts for Euro Area. 4/25/2014