Euro Area | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 1.38 Apr-14 1.38 May-14 1.35 1.32 1.3 1.39 1.3 1.33 1.33 [+]
Government Bond 10y 1.01 Apr-14 1.04 May-14 0.58 0.4 2.45 0.13 1.5 1.88 3.37 [+]
Stock Market 3155.81 Apr-14 3079 May-14 3044 2940 2903 2837 2719 3211 3327 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Constant Prices 2136.18 Nov-13 2117 Feb-14 2123 2125 2126 2127 3995 13746 409552 [+]
GDP per capita 31948.97 Dec-12 31852 Dec-13 31702 31664 31630 31598 58956 201534 5999338 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35392.52 Dec-11 35492 Dec-12 37657 37859 38052 38237 72814 263594 8091535 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 Dec-13 0.4 Mar-14 0.4 0.48 0.55 0.42 0.32 2.83 2.62 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.50 Dec-13 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.65 0 0 0.5 2.75 2.75 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 383.46 Nov-13 375 Mar-14 375 370 372 372 370 364 351 [+]
GDP 12194.82 Dec-12 11821 Dec-13 11486 11405 11337 11281 20839 70783 2108822 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Population 332.88 Dec-12 334 Dec-13 334 334 334 335 335 338 342 [+]
Employed Persons 145.02 Nov-13 144 Nov-13 144 144 144 144 269 929 27753 [+]
Labour Costs 114.10 Aug-13 114 Dec-13 115 115 115 115 114 114 115 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 5.90 Sep-13 6.37 Dec-13 6.47 6.62 6.64 6.8 6.69 6.42 6.33 [+]
Productivity 104.20 Nov-13 104 Mar-14 104 105 105 105 121 162 380 [+]
Unemployed Persons 18.85 Feb-14 18.79 Mar-14 19 18.9 18.84 18.76 18.48 17.55 16.85 [+]
Wages 726969.00 Aug-13 728641 Dec-13 730588 731077 733197 735644 740584 727334 729844 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.50 Feb-14 23.8 Mar-14 23.8 23.75 23.66 23.62 23.56 8.65 8.69 [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.90 Feb-14 12 Mar-14 12 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 7.8 8.8 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 0.50 Mar-14 0.5 Mar-14 0.5 0.43 0.33 0.36 0.75 3.92 3.92 [+]
Consumer Price Index (cpi) 118.13 Mar-14 118 Apr-14 118 118 118 118 129 153 237 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 111.61 Feb-14 113 Mar-14 113 113 113 113 123 145 231 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.70 Mar-14 0.84 Apr-14 0.8 0.67 0.56 0.48 0.09 3.96 3.73 [+]
Gdp Deflator 112.60 Nov-13 113 Mar-14 113 113 114 114 115 113 91.58 [+]
Import Prices 102.00 Feb-14 102 Mar-14 102 102 101 101 102 102 102 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.97 Mar-14 0.19 Apr-14 0.52 0.03 0.19 0.18 0.18 3.78 4.03 [+]
Producer Prices 107.56 Feb-14 107 Mar-14 108 107 107 107 125 167 391 [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.70 Feb-14 -2 Mar-14 -2 -2.37 -2.35 -2.02 0.22 3.77 4 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Foreign Exchange Reserves 338987.00 Feb-14 333790 Feb-14 328900 327109 328358 327896 328032 324468 324456 [+]
Interbank Rate 0.31 Mar-14 0.25 Feb-14 0.02 0.04 0.31 0.34 0.44 0.92 1.89 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 10544849.00 Feb-14 10509873 Feb-14 10484104 10392813 10321564 10235894 9994596 10404644 10130957 [+]
Money Supply M1 5493181.00 Feb-14 5521448 Feb-14 5515308 5617831 5712972 5752512 11338188 33371782 1071229592 [+]
Money Supply M2 9273330.00 Feb-14 9302143 Feb-14 9321317 9353346 9409318 9493966 18117768 68642162 2257591099 [+]
Money Supply M3 9917831.00 Feb-14 9930290 Feb-14 9916472 9955995 9987219 9995753 18842330 64225639 1918533248 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2160987.00 Apr-14 2046578 May-14 2073515 2017728 1918159 1943183 2147441 2121454 2131956 [+]
Interest Rate 0.25 Apr-14 0.25 Jun-14 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.08 0.25 0.65 1.61 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account to GDP 1.50 Dec-12 1.96 Dec-13 1.74 1.64 1.55 1.47 1.41 0.1 0.05 [+]
Current Account 13.87 Feb-14 9017 Mar-14 9017 9634 7297 9828 4828 -56372 -344524 [+]
Capital Flows -9.50 Feb-14 -13.65 Mar-14 -13.65 -21.97 -18.51 -23.72 -24.14 -15.97 -10.36 [+]
External Debt 11964387.19 Sep-13 12035656 Dec-13 12003583 12118686 12118441 12074280 12040488 12020046 12018508 [+]
Balance of Trade 13600.00 Feb-14 11123 Mar-14 15536 16260 13509 13767 14233 17126 26789 [+]
Imports 139700.00 Feb-14 146644 Mar-14 149255 144824 146245 139536 151515 177041 278573 [+]
Exports 153300.00 Feb-14 168371 Mar-14 164791 161084 159754 153304 165748 194167 305361 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Spending 417.83 Nov-13 412 Mar-14 412 404 407 412 476 650 1521 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 90.60 Dec-12 95.13 Dec-13 93.84 94.33 96 96 95.4 98.82 99.23 [+]
Credit Rating 13.59 [+]
Government Budget -3.70 Dec-12 -3.03 Dec-13 -3.33 -3.3 -3.27 -3.24 -3.19 -2.9 -2.65 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Capacity Utilization 80.00 Feb-14 78.09 May-14 78.82 78.95 78.96 78.83 78.06 78.63 78.45 [+]
Business Confidence 0.39 Mar-14 0.45 Apr-14 0.55 0.85 0.99 0.99 -0.16 2.08 -0.05 [+]
Industrial Production 1.70 Feb-14 2.64 Mar-14 2.64 3.38 3.5 3.06 0.21 3.79 3.92 [+]
Car Registrations 735.00 Feb-14 731 Mar-14 747 754 745 764 860 1194 2696 [+]
Changes In Inventories -6.68 Nov-13 -1.69 Mar-14 -1.69 -1.12 -1.94 -1.89 -1.52 -1.71 -1.71 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 Feb-14 0.41 Feb-14 -0.09 0.13 0.14 0.07 0.06 3.97 3.92 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 53.00 Mar-14 53.1 Apr-14 53 55.79 56.36 55.56 51.95 53.39 53.34 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.50 Jan-14 2.84 Feb-14 3.39 4.2 4.44 2.99 0.38 3.95 3.85 [+]
Sentix Investors Sentiment 14.08 Apr-14 16.11 May-14 15.78 19.6 24.3 24.73 13.22 16.53 16.15 [+]
Services Pmi 52.20 Mar-14 54.14 Apr-14 52.4 54.54 55.39 55.5 53.04 53.38 53.29 [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 61.20 Apr-14 60.99 May-14 67 79.3 77.82 73.71 51.78 58.64 61.52 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Spending 1397.95 Nov-13 1365 Nov-13 1379 1383 1396 1403 2647 8949 268264 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.39 Feb-14 -0.02 Mar-14 -0.02 0.21 0.09 0.18 0.18 3.78 4.03 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.80 Feb-14 0.57 Mar-14 0.57 1.68 2.04 1.96 1.42 3.85 3.64 [+]
Consumer Confidence -9.30 Mar-14 -8.32 Apr-14 -9.3 -5.38 -4.45 -5.14 -11.92 -4.45 -2.15 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 1568805.00 Aug-13 1572028 Dec-13 1575397 1582262 1586224 1589159 1856719 2493196 5826234 [+]
Personal Savings 12.98 Aug-13 12.97 Dec-13 13.01 13.02 12.98 12.99 12.95 6 2.66 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 25.90 Jan-13 26 Dec-13 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 44.50 Jan-13 45 Dec-13 46 46 47 47 48 51 54 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Construction Output 8.80 Jan-14 0.31 Feb-14 3.79 5.95 8.1 11.83 22.12 187 1279 [+]
Housing Index 96.67 Nov-13 96.15 Dec-13 95.33 94.97 94.96 94.63 95.01 95.77 96 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



RELATED NEWS

Euro Area Inflation Rate Confirmed at 0.5% in March  
Euro area annual inflation was 0.5 percent in March of 2014, matching initial estimates and slowing from 0.7 percent in February. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.9 percent, up from 0.3 percent in the previous month.
Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens in February On Rising Exports  
The first estimate for the Euro Area trade in goods balance with the rest of the world in February of 2014 gave a € 13.6 billion surplus, compared with € +9.8 bn in February of 2013. The January 2014 balance was € +0.8 bn.
Euro Area Industrial Production Up 1.7% YoY  
In February of 2014, Euro Area industrial output advanced 1.7 percent on a yearly basis, slightly up from a revised 1.6 percent growth rate in January. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.2 percent, rebounding from a revised flat growth in the previous month.
ECB Holds Rates Steady  
At its April 3rd meeting, the ECB left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.25 percent, as widely expected, despite deflation fears. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also left unchanged at 0.75 percent and 0.00 percent, respectively.
Euro Area GDP Growth Revised Down in Q4  
The Euro Area economy advanced 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2013, according to the third estimate released by the Eurostat. The final figure comes below a 0.3 percent expansion earlier reported, as growth of exports and imports was revised.
Euro Area Unemployment Rate Steady in February  
The euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.9 percent in February 2014, unchanged from a downward revised 11.9 percent in January and steady since October of 2013. It was 12.0 percent in February of 2013.
Euro Area Inflation Rate Slows Again in March  
Euro Area annual inflation is expected to be 0.5 percent in March of 2014, down from 0.7 percent in February, according to a flash estimate. It is the lowest rate since November of 2009.
Euro Area Trade Surplus Narrows in January  
Euro Area recorded a € 900 million trade surplus in January of 2014, compared with a € 13.8 billion surplus a month earlier, as imports surged 8.6 percent. January's reading is above the € 5.4 billion deficit recorded in the same month last year.
Euro Area Inflation Rate Back to 0.7% in February  
Euro Area annual inflation came back to a 4-year low of 0.7 percent in February of 2014, revised downwards from a preliminary 0.8 percent. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.3 percent.
Euro Area Industrial Production Up 2.1% YoY in January  
Euro Area industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 2.1 percent over a year earlier in January of 2014, compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month. On a monthly basis, production shrank for the second straight month by 0.2 percent on falling energy output.
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Chile Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged  
At its April 17th, 2014 meeting, Central Bank of Chile left the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4 percent, following last month's cut, citing low output and demand, but hinted possible future rate cuts, depending on domestic and external conditions.
Russia Unemployment Drops in March  
Russian jobless rate fell for the first time in four months to 5.4 percent, after remaining stable at 5.6 percent in the previous two months.
Canada Inflation Rises Above Forecasts in March  
The annual consumer prices in Canada accelerated to 1.5 percent in March of 2014 following a 1.1 increase in the previous month, as energy prices surged.
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly  
In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Brazil Unemployment Rate Down to 5%  
In March of 2014, Brazil’s jobless rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5 percent, below market forecasts. A year earlier, unemployment reached 5.7 percent.
Dutch Unemployment Rate Falls for the First Time in 2014  
In March of 2014, Netherlands’ seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 8.7 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous month and 8.1 percent a year earlier, as more people left permanently the labor market rather than found jobs.
Singaporean Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply in March  
The trade surplus decreased 51.1 percent in March of 2014 over a year earlier and 47.2 percent from February to SGD 2.3 billion. Imports rose at a faster pace than exports, as sales of pharmaceuticals and electronics fell, while shipments of petrochemicals and re-exports contributed to overall increase.
Mozambique Leaves Lending Rate Steady at 8.25%  
At its April 16th, 2014 meeting, Bank of Mozambique left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25 percent for the sixth consecutive meeting, saying this was consistent with meeting domestic economic targets for 2014.
Spanish Trade Deficit Narrows to 4-Month Low  
In February of 2014, Spanish trade gap decreased to € 1.62 billion, down from € 2.82 billion in the previous month. Compared with the same month a year earlier, the trade deficit widened 37 percent.
Angolan Inflation Rate Down To 7.32% in March  
The annual consumer prices in Angola decelerated for the second consecutive month to 7.32 percent in March of 2014, from 7.48 percent recorded in February of 2014.
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This page includes economic forecasts for Euro Area. 4/21/2014