China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 408.18 300 300 470 400 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 6.86 7.09 7.16 7.23 7.3 8.34 [+]
Stock Market 3123.14 3040 3010 2980 2950 2480 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.30 3.22 3.25 3.29 2.86 3.79 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11007.72 12600 12600 12600 12600 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 673837.10 677487 683153 688818 694484 598362 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 281000 272000 268000 281000 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 14520 18450 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 63671.00 -1237 5527 11515 11396 10372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 33193.00 24951 24773 24797 24794 24794 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 187836.00 137490 136735 136832 136820 136821 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 384221.00 280177 333959 280461 333676 332042 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 24160.00 3203 5305 5971 5482 4084 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 744127.00 150000 364000 519000 696000 790000 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77584 77630 77675 77720 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 983.00 984 984 984 983 983 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.30 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4335000.00 5057496 4830678 4717145 4591846 4747057 [+]
Wages 62029.00 75200 75200 75200 75200 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 61100 61100 61100 61100 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2190.00 2190 2300 2300 2300 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1377 1378 1379 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.10 104 105 103 107 117 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.90 104 105 102 107 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.7 1.7 2.12 2.12 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 622 622 625 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 105.50 100 100 100 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 5.50 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 97.89 97.96 97.96 97.96 97.96 97.96 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 104.01 106 107 107 108 108 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.40 0.91 1.3 3.91 3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.32 3.88 3.84 2.85 3.84 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6830.00 6360 6322 6282 6240 5627 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 48660.00 49092 50676 52301 53970 78156 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 155010.00 160224 165309 170556 175969 256007 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 339739.52 344290 347334 350045 352536 370956 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1040.00 1010 1010 1000 973 1161 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3011000.00 2919613 2838433 2766070 2699186 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 16300.00 12505 13158 13457 13502 13469 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.25 1.5 1.01 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.50 14.1 14.1 15.73 13.2 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1051237.07 1088370 1116147 1143861 1171512 1498511 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 408.18 300 300 470 400 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 2094.17 1530 1530 1870 1690 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1685.99 1230 1630 1453 1290 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 692.54 482 740 651 743 715 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 3.26 3.28 3.29 3.3 3.93 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 11244 12882 14520 16158 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 94.12 93.91 93.79 93.76 93.75 93.75 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1055.30 1120 1120 734 1250 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -712.00 -260 -408 -484 -379 -402 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 154 153 152 152 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1838.51 1848 1850 1852 1852 1853 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3887.00 3913 3920 3927 3934 4015 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.21 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 5186019.00 5124205 4930273 5130710 4929630 4929642 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.46 -2.39 -2.32 -2.24 -2.06 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -6573.00 -2037 -1666 -1506 -1474 -1553 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 171905 180283 188662 197040 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 11491.12 12694 12830 12937 12989 13065 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 18063.87 16460 16256 16145 16184 16271 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.40 50.4 50.4 51.22 51 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.90 52 51.7 51.4 51.7 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 53.40 52.9 52 52.2 52.5 52 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.50 53.2 53.2 54.62 54.63 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.00 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.46 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.30 5.2 5.2 10.57 11.24 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.20 52.98 53.09 53.03 53.04 53.04 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11429 11253 11077 10902 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 3057300.00 2381603 2448888 2473761 2463549 2464814 [+]
Car Production 2644000.00 2114144 2172781 2196597 2184827 2186194 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2672300.00 2087605 2122171 2169157 2158251 2155866 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.10 0.02 -0.01 0 -0.01 -0.01 percent [+]
Steel Production 66290.00 66818 66597 66554 66593 66598 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.22 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.89 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Composite Pmi 53.50 52.21 51.6 51.32 51.19 51.09 [+]
Cement Production 21350.80 21514 21611 21481 21532 21524 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 6034410.00 2949750 3202016 4253668 3850372 3734403 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 81.95 81.6 81.25 80.89 85.4 [+]
Electricity Production 503410.00 503235 502552 503456 503480 503400 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 37.11 37.25 38.98 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 92.23 92.89 93.55 94.2 91.46 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.60 108 108 108 108 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.89 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.90 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.6 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 252146 258008 263869 269731 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 31560 32390 33221 34052 44070 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.28 1 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 241380.38 262330 277618 292184 306050 415441 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.73 0.75 0.65 0.63 0.6 0.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 41.80 43.73 44.41 45.12 45.84 54.18 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 12.40 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 1/20/2017