China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 298.60 447 465 456 505 457 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 6.52 6.6 6.66 6.73 6.79 3.88 [+]
Stock Market 2991.30 2980 2890 2800 2740 3800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.89 2.91 2.99 3.14 3.28 4.28 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 4.8 percent [+]
GDP 10354.80 11345 11345 11345 12300 15912 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 634367.30 660459 668170 675882 683637 913903 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 283017.60 280642 271702 267931 280716 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 3865.88 3987 4046 4104 4164 5313 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12608.87 12988 13175 13362 13534 16913 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8803.00 33336 29712 30248 30169 30179 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 7438.00 27268 24082 24594 24512 24523 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 52335.00 147076 133024 135108 134799 134839 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 90214.00 210066 193914 196091 195798 195832 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 7249.00 18831 17158 17399 17364 17369 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 158526.00 309430 482962 676582 163622 789710 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77630 77675 77720 77784 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 966.00 967 967 966 966 965 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.70 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5200000.00 5399821 4969393 4627888 5216909 4992637 [+]
Wages 57361.00 61463 61463 61463 63154 79556 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 51369.00 55469 55469 57853 57853 74549 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2130 2130 2130 2680 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1382 1401 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40 0.5 0.22 0.8 1 0.19 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.30 102 102 103 103 105 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.50 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 1.55 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 617.29 623 620 616 616 591 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 95.70 97.51 99.03 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -4.30 -3.42 -3.19 -3.13 -3.12 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 96.30 96.03 95.82 95.7 95.63 95.55 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 88.40 88.04 87.91 87.86 87.85 87.84 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.60 8.61 9.41 9.87 10.14 10.53 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.92 3 3.11 3.11 3.11 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6470.00 6863 6803 6741 6677 5530 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 41160.00 40549 41550 42575 43624 62770 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 144620.00 149039 154090 159311 164710 271510 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 326216.46 329832 331053 331451 331589 331977 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1370.00 971 936 942 954 1181 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3212500.00 3115403 3027832 2948240 2876009 2337708 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 23400.00 17380 15569 15235 15215 15233 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 14.70 10.5 11.92 10.22 10.22 14.56 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 982365.93 1008360 1041097 1071184 1102245 1554274 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade 298.60 447 465 456 505 457 USD HML [+]
Exports 1608.57 1745 1647 1619 1642 2099 USD HML [+]
Imports 1221.64 1236 1171 1150 1480 2084 USD HML [+]
Current Account 918.83 757 754 832 813 791 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 2.7 2.82 2.94 2.86 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 12882 14520 16158 16642 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 108.94 110 109 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 354.20 618 716 612 663 660 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -843.00 -535 -455 -451 -424 -434 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 165 171 159 167 166 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1762.32 1770 1770 1770 1770 1770 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 4206.00 4265 4280 4294 4308 4521 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.29 5.88 6.17 6.47 6.42 6.42 [+]
Exports to India 4416688.00 4322760 4549350 4381995 4555124 4381262 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.14 -2.17 -2.2 -2.18 -2.33 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -5277.00 -2249 -1513 -1245 -1192 -1306 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 181279 188068 194858 198828 263760 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 11511.00 15855 12821 12490 12572 12685 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 16788.00 18218 17118 15702 15891 16165 CNY HML [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 50.10 49 49 50.2 50.4 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.40 47.1 48.3 49.8 50.2 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 52.20 51.1 52 51.64 51.64 51.64 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 53.21 53.27 53.3 53.29 53.29 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.80 6 5.8 5.4 5 4.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.64 0.52 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.20 6.6 6.3 6 5.2 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 51.40 51.12 51.26 51.12 51.17 51.16 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 12004.70 11644 11348 11053 10794 11898 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2439700.00 2308228 2038839 2189263 2189148 2191105 [+]
Car Production 2143400.00 1992132 1924580 1922025 1925148 1925169 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2055700.00 1937705 1738843 1858044 1858792 1863820 [+]
Leading Economic Index 99.04 98.96 99.09 99.15 99.1 99.13 Index Points [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 50.50 50.75 50.69 50.67 50.68 50.68 [+]
Steel Production 70650.00 68859 67216 67528 67911 67835 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.89 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.85 4.75 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Cement Production 20139.00 20840 20562 20589 20621 20605 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 561240.00 2405682 4516691 2953068 2733780 3255305 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 87 87 87 87 89 [+]
Electricity Production 477884.00 446316 460271 462168 460724 460660 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 91 91 91 88 87 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.00 104 101 102 102 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.85 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.84 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.50 9 10.51 11 9 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 241541.70 253924 245965 251934 251429 262071 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 32274 33041 33807 34371 41938 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.33 4.33 4.33 4.33 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 117.80 117 117 117 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 197659.12 208366 220505 232313 244314 424502 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.68 1.07 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 38.80 40.69 41.37 42.05 42.73 52.83 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 4.90 1.19 2.42 12.14 12.95 14.1 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 5/4/2016