China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 499.80 509 452 437 300 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 6.66 6.61 6.67 6.74 6.8 7.85 [+]
Stock Market 2928.70 2910 2880 2850 2820 2350 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.80 3.06 3.09 3.12 3.15 3.64 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 4.8 percent [+]
GDP 10354.83 11345 11345 11345 12300 15912 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 673837.10 683031 688640 694250 696875 596233 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 280642 271702 267931 280716 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 3865.88 3987 4046 4104 4164 5313 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12608.87 12988 13175 13362 13534 16913 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8803.00 11247 17157 26867 11604 10133 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 7438.00 27268 24082 24594 24512 24523 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 52335.00 147076 133024 135108 134799 134839 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 90214.00 210066 193914 196091 195798 195832 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 7249.00 18831 17158 17399 17364 17369 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 158526.00 309430 482962 676582 163622 789710 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77630 77675 77720 77784 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 972.00 974 974 975 974 973 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.70 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5200000.00 5399821 4969393 4627888 5216909 4992637 [+]
Wages 62029.00 61463 61463 61463 63154 79556 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 55469 55469 57853 57853 74549 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2130 2130 2130 2680 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1382 1401 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 0.2 0.3 0.5 1 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.00 102 102 102 103 107 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.60 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.66 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 614.51 614 615 616 616 615 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 97.20 97.74 99.24 100 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.80 -1.9 -1.1 -1 -0.8 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 96.70 96.63 96.54 96.46 96.41 96.37 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 95.20 95.2 98.06 98.74 98.36 97.03 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.40 5.93 6.18 6.19 6.21 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.06 3 3.14 3.13 3.13 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6280.00 6403 6347 6289 6229 5191 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 42430.00 42068 43167 44292 45445 66659 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 146170.00 147853 152746 157800 163020 265613 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 330274.13 327878 327700 327108 326450 319842 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 985.50 842 806 908 1007 1147 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3190000.00 3175700 3122851 3067605 3014086 2840840 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 6599.00 14545 14007 13340 13327 13445 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 14.40 14.5 14 13.9 14.1 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 997642.14 1006173 1037952 1067397 1097481 1537563 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade 499.80 509 452 437 300 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1810.64 1745 1757 1752 1530 2099 USD HML [+]
Imports 1310.84 1236 1301 1261 1230 1684 USD HML [+]
Current Account 481.00 757 754 832 813 791 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 2.7 2.82 2.94 2.86 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 12882 14520 16158 16642 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 101.58 110 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 343.55 618 728 1116 618 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -481.00 -406 -415 -663 -476 -513 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 165 171 159 167 166 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1797.46 1827 1834 1839 1841 1845 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 4133.00 4198 4214 4228 4241 4447 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.29 5.88 6.17 6.47 6.42 6.42 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 5298528.00 5007552 5023819 4846072 5042352 4847034 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.14 -2.17 -2.2 -2.18 -2.33 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 0.00 -2256 -1903 -1489 -1320 -1212 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 181279 188068 194858 198828 263760 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 15461.00 15855 12821 13358 13482 13608 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 15461.00 18218 17118 15774 15912 15953 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 50.10 49 50 50.3 50.4 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.20 49.1 49.3 50 50.2 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 51.20 51.1 52 51.54 51.55 51.56 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.10 53 52.5 53.2 53.18 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.00 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.45 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.20 6.6 6.3 6 5.2 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 50.70 51.15 50.85 50.81 50.83 50.84 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11253 11077 10902 11010 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2091672.00 2315909 2038839 2197525 2196271 2197704 [+]
Car Production 1772083.00 1935739 1893409 1878316 1877331 1878593 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1793035.00 1973700 1738843 1883393 1884323 1887509 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.00 -0.13 0.05 -0.03 0 -0.01 percent [+]
Steel Production 70504.00 71984 70631 70720 70989 70965 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 54.50 50.36 53.01 52.84 52.9 52.89 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.89 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.85 4.75 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Cement Production 22661.00 22133 20773 21153 21177 21123 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 537220.00 2405682 4717913 3032995 2282625 3115645 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 87 87 87 87 89 [+]
Electricity Production 444400.00 435608 442893 444386 444071 443897 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 91 91 91 88 87 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.80 104 100 101 102 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.76 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.00 10.1 9.9 10 9.8 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 253924 263869 269731 269982 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 32274 33041 33807 34371 41938 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 114.20 115 115 115 115 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 207533.71 212216 226503 239961 252634 350847 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.64 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.62 1.07 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 39.50 40.76 41.43 42.11 42.8 52.97 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 6.90 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 6/29/2016