China | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 380.48 300 374 400 366 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.90 50.2 43.52 55.43 44.75 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 6.88 6.94 7.01 7.21 7.14 7.9 [+]
Stock Market 3072.67 3190 3160 3060 3090 2580 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.70 3.34 3.38 3.41 3.44 3.97 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11064.66 12600 12600 12600 13400 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 762118 786041 809963 822625 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 300382 300059 299735 301458 324891 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 13958 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 180683.00 364000 519000 696000 420292 790000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8654.00 23000 42000 65000 31477 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 8361.00 29003 25687 26220 26134 26146 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 61919.00 143059 132210 133660 133466 133489 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 102024.00 236179 217993 220458 220124 220164 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 8105.00 20338 18573 18827 18791 18795 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.97 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77785 77818 77850 77908 78525 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 976.00 976 974 973 973 973 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.60 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5903000.00 5459008 5176222 4912700 5928969 5350877 [+]
Wages 62029.00 75200 75200 75200 81300 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 61100 61100 61100 65600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2300 2300 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.20 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.18 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.20 102 102 102 103 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.10 105 106 107 102 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 622 625 624 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.40 100 100 101 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.40 8.7 7.4 6 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 104.55 107 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.61 116 116 117 117 117 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -3.50 1.3 1.5 3 1.1 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16.99 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.15 4.75 4.25 4.72 4.72 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6840.00 7142 7065 7048 7044 6940 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 49020.00 50036 51540 53019 54479 69449 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 159630.00 161025 161983 162794 163450 165634 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 341296.85 340911 341227 341200 341171 341038 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1100.00 1010 1000 1065 1065 1065 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3030000.00 3028201 3016643 2996049 2973346 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 13900.00 16741 16002 15782 15831 15881 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.25 1.55 1.72 1.78 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 12.90 14.1 14.26 13.2 15.97 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1114834.81 1136352 1168625 1200877 1233046 1582532 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.49 2.52 2.54 2.55 2.55 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 8.90 8.59 8.67 8.65 8.65 8.65 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 380.48 300 374 400 366 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1800.04 1530 1733 1690 1733 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1419.56 1630 1423 1290 1426 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 190.00 641 362 279 374 413 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.75 2.49 2.24 2.39 3.12 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 15366 15317 15268 15526 18276 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 92.03 91.66 91.59 91.57 91.57 91.57 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 415.50 1120 733 1250 680 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -190.00 12.53 111 138 -2.09 70.41 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 153 152 152 153 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1848 1849 1850 1850 1850 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3855.00 3750 3733 3718 3876 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Weapons Sales 2123.00 1915 1923 1931 1876 2023 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 5.73 [+]
Exports to India 5533093.00 4717697 5556803 5315939 5536007 5399302 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.90 50.2 43.52 55.43 44.75 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -3.54 -4 -4.46 -4.22 -3.41 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -169.50 -2036 -1500 -1366 -1342 -1377 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 198654 200688 202723 206393 246179 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 16784.00 13073 13468 13579 13652 13719 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 13636.00 18894 17164 16556 16262 16145 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.20 50.4 51.3 51 51.25 51 [+]
Services PMI 51.50 52 52.2 52.5 52.7 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.30 51.7 51.4 51.7 51.3 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.00 53.2 54.12 54.14 54.15 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.50 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.68 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.56 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.65 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.90 5.2 7.08 7.13 7.16 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 52.30 52.43 52.51 52.5 52.5 52.51 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11253 11077 10902 11010 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2075734.00 2457002 2427577 2377008 2382218 2387277 [+]
Car Production 1782800.00 2083571 2102873 2067954 2074287 2077629 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1722200.00 2076033 2100695 2034333 2036261 2047109 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 -0.01 -0.02 0 -0.01 -0.01 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.40 -1.15 -2.01 -1.35 -1.78 -1.65 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 71995.00 70300 68587 68852 69263 69181 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.99 4.95 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 26 26 26 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.20 51.04 51.09 51.11 51.12 51.13 [+]
Cement Production 22112.80 22013 21044 21374 21381 21340 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 1704300.00 3259262 4391671 3415172 3318979 3624350 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 78 76 74 75 94 [+]
Electricity Production 516890.00 524218 523852 523366 523426 523456 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 36 39 38 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 84 82 81 85 90 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.00 110 108 108 107 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.79 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.82 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.70 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.59 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 258008 263869 269731 269982 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 34752 35181 35610 36114 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 1 1 0.29 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 268062.85 279107 294975 310225 324756 434425 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 43.20 45.04 45.74 46.46 47.2 54.96 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 10.70 9.8 9.8 9.8 7.53 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]