China | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Currency 6.24 Apr-14 6.2 May-14 6.04 5.97 5.9 6.13 5.5 4.5 4 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 4.27 Apr-14 4.35 May-14 4.98 5.23 5.16 5 4.67 4.21 4.27 [+]
Stock Market 2065.83 Apr-14 2132 May-14 1938 2044 2119 2144 2300 3000 5000 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 241756.80 Jun-12 243938 Dec-12 286738 293054 299346 305609 330403 448268 656082 [+]
Gross National Product 516282.10 Jun-12 520587 Dec-12 595270 605879 616326 626614 804873 1458282 5362789 [+]
GDP per capita 3348.01 Dec-12 3685 Jun-14 3685 3741 3796 3852 4179 5709 9862 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7957.62 Dec-12 8759 Jun-14 8759 8891 9023 9154 9933 13568 23436 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 Feb-14 2.06 Jun-14 2.06 2.06 1.95 1.96 1.65 2.98 2.64 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.40 Mar-14 7.4 Jun-14 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.4 6 5 4 [+]
GDP 8230.00 Dec-12 9769 Jun-14 9507 9705 9898 10088 11064 15195 23444 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Employed Persons 76977.00 Dec-13 77150 Jun-14 76972 77005 77035 77060 150230 559487 20914354 [+]
Job Vacancies 5125347.00 Dec-13 5211623 Mar-14 5211623 5485908 5722752 5592882 5514613 5411099 5409212 [+]
Labour Costs 107.50 Nov-13 124 Mar-14 124 151 200 108 108 59901 1588331 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 Jan-14 60 Jun-14 60 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 Jan-14 50 Jun-14 50 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Unemployed Persons 926.00 Dec-13 926 Mar-14 926 925 923 926 922 925 925 [+]
Wages 46769.00 Dec-12 50855 Dec-13 51834 52796 53741 55208 59204 76279 97503 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 41650.00 Dec-12 46633 Dec-13 47848 49050 50239 51548 56075 72741 83483 [+]
Population 1360.72 Dec-13 1361 Dec-14 1362 1364 1365 1361 1373 1398 1432 [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.10 Dec-13 4 Mar-14 4 4 4 4 4.1 5.07 5.6 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 102.40 Mar-14 102 Apr-14 103 102 102 102 122 174 483 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.70 Mar-14 102 Apr-14 102 102 103 103 121 174 475 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 Mar-14 1.83 Apr-14 1.85 1.84 1.89 1.85 1.8 3.91 4.01 [+]
Export Prices 100.10 Dec-13 100 Jan-14 98.53 99.36 98.58 99.59 99.88 99.7 99.71 [+]
GDP Deflator 588.21 Jun-12 590 Dec-12 604 606 608 609 614 627 630 [+]
Import Prices 98.60 Dec-13 97.48 Jan-14 100 100 98.9 98.55 98.3 98.61 98.46 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.50 Mar-14 -0.42 Apr-14 0.24 -1.1 0.63 0.12 0.12 4.02 3.97 [+]
Producer Prices 97.70 Mar-14 97.69 Apr-14 98.55 98.32 98.47 98.35 117 167 463 [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.30 Mar-14 -1.39 Apr-14 -1.12 -1.68 -1.53 -1.65 0.06 3.92 3.87 [+]
Inflation Rate 2.40 Mar-14 2.48 Apr-14 2.25 2.31 2.37 2.33 2.27 3.88 4.02 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Banks Balance Sheet 1050.00 Mar-14 808 Apr-14 1008 933 715 636 636 636 636 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 325019.77 Feb-14 324257 Feb-14 326564 334315 341453 347144 364316 289657 297417 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3950000.00 Mar-14 4001951 Apr-14 3900858 4063257 4192164 4306438 4595309 4359373 4409361 [+]
Interbank Rate 4.97 Apr-14 5.75 May-14 6.24 5.74 5.97 5.94 6.32 5.92 4.74 [+]
Loan Growth 13.90 Feb-14 13.26 Mar-14 13.26 13.18 13.05 12.92 14.19 13.75 13.56 [+]
Loans To Private Sector 133038.25 Feb-14 134588 Mar-14 134588 141616 148794 154882 178425 280008 412190 [+]
Money Supply M0 6230.00 Feb-14 6388 Mar-14 6262 6407 6723 7013 13717 56937 1684393 [+]
Money Supply M1 31660.00 Feb-14 32687 Mar-14 32432 32872 33135 33915 60777 182714 4351895 [+]
Money Supply M2 116070.00 Mar-14 116413 Apr-14 117454 120312 123746 123746 155649 296382 1013585 [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 Mar-14 6 Apr-14 6 6 6.01 6.01 6 6 6 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Current Account 439.91 Nov-13 355 Mar-14 355 223 306 344 407 380 378 [+]
Capital Flows 1270.42 Nov-13 1063 Mar-14 1234 1174 1210 1202 1208 3052 7386 [+]
Crude Oil Production 4255.00 Oct-13 4146 Nov-13 4142 4116 4077 4121 4088 4085 4085 [+]
External Debt 8631.67 Dec-13 9094 Jun-14 7793 9218 9487 9742 10628 13005 14029 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 315.50 Mar-14 398 Apr-14 588 740 943 395 958 954 954 [+]
Gold Reserves 1054.09 Dec-13 [+]
Terms Of Trade 101.52 Dec-13 102 Jan-14 99.13 99.81 100 101 101 101 101 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 139.20 Feb-14 176 Mar-14 176 165 173 159 160 160 160 [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.00 Dec-13 1.99 Dec-14 3.34 3.57 3.77 1.98 4.33 0.1 0.05 [+]
Balance of Trade 77.06 Mar-14 -13.84 Apr-14 52.83 95.24 101 59.32 102 161 596 [+]
Exports 1701.10 Mar-14 1730 Apr-14 1699 1543 1792 1770 2190 1961 9355 [+]
Imports 1624.05 Mar-14 1734 Apr-14 1647 1448 1691 1711 2088 1800 8758 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget Value 2574.60 Feb-14 -1269 Mar-14 -1269 -1553 -1985 -6393 -6470 -6460 -6460 [+]
Government Spending 71409.00 Jun-12 72108 Dec-12 85607 87501 89424 91512 120176 243819 1120859 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 26.00 Dec-12 22.29 Dec-13 25.61 25.78 25.93 26.04 26.1 26.02 26.02 [+]
Credit Rating 78.82 [+]
Government Budget -1.50 Dec-12 -1.73 Dec-13 -1.77 -1.79 -1.81 -1.82 -1.85 -1.87 -1.87 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 124.30 Feb-14 125 Jun-14 118 125 124 123 120 218 387 [+]
Car Registrations 1710067.00 Mar-14 1736100 Mar-14 1769022 1690924 1795863 1894438 2343987 3361971 9857417 [+]
Changes in Inventories 11016.40 Jun-12 11069 Dec-12 9878 9832 9798 9771 9717 9690 9690 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.61 Feb-14 0.87 Mar-14 0.87 0.82 0.72 0.7 0.7 4.01 4.01 [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 50.30 Mar-14 50.61 Apr-14 54.4 50.14 51.58 50.19 50.32 50.27 50.27 [+]
New Orders 50.60 Mar-14 50.73 Apr-14 57.73 49.66 52.01 50.44 50.81 50.65 50.66 [+]
Non Manufacturing Pmi 54.50 Mar-14 59.66 Apr-14 59.13 57.42 58.92 56.92 56.24 56.4 56.4 [+]
Services Pmi 51.90 Mar-14 50.91 Apr-14 52.25 50.05 51.54 49.54 49.74 49.45 49.44 [+]
Industrial Production 8.80 Mar-14 9.75 Apr-14 10.92 9.35 8.87 9.22 9.37 5.76 4.41 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence 103.10 Feb-14 103 Mar-14 101 100 101 101 101 255 618 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 6.00 Apr-14 5.99 May-14 5.96 6.01 6.11 6.02 6.01 6 6 [+]
Consumer Spending 190423.80 Jun-12 192246 Dec-12 226905 231951 236956 241921 315785 613479 2515880 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 26955.00 Dec-13 28742 Jun-14 27992 28672 29351 30028 63734 331987 19023526 [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 Dec-14 0.35 Dec-15 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.05 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.71 Feb-14 1.14 Mar-14 1.14 1.22 1.23 1.13 1.14 3.84 3.89 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 12.20 Mar-14 12.08 Apr-14 12.16 12.09 12.4 13.27 13.13 9.72 6.59 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Social Security Rate 48.00 Jan-13 48 Dec-13 48 48 48 48 48 48 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 Jan-13 37 Dec-13 37 37 37 37 37 37 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 Jan-13 11 Dec-13 11 11 11 11 11 11 [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 Jan-14 25 Jun-14 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 Jan-14 45 Jun-14 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 Jan-14 17 Jun-14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 7.70 Mar-14 10.55 Apr-14 11.57 12.59 12.16 10.91 8.03 7.95 6.18 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



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This page includes economic forecasts for China. 4/23/2014





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