China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 455.62 468 475 470 505 470 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 6.56 6.6 6.66 6.73 6.79 3.88 [+]
Stock Market 2821.70 2980 2890 2800 2740 3800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.93 2.91 2.99 3.14 3.28 4.28 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 4.8 percent [+]
GDP 10354.80 11345 11345 11345 12300 15912 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 634367.30 660459 668170 675882 683637 913903 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 283017.60 280642 271702 267931 280716 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 3865.88 3987 4046 4104 4164 5313 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12608.87 12988 13175 13362 13534 16913 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8803.00 11247 17157 26867 11604 10133 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 7438.00 27268 24082 24594 24512 24523 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 52335.00 147076 133024 135108 134799 134839 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 90214.00 210066 193914 196091 195798 195832 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 7249.00 18831 17158 17399 17364 17369 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 158526.00 309430 482962 676582 163622 789710 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77630 77675 77720 77784 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 972.00 974 974 975 974 973 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.70 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5200000.00 5399821 4969393 4627888 5216909 4992637 [+]
Wages 62029.00 61463 61463 61463 63154 79556 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 55469 55469 57853 57853 74549 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2130 2130 2130 2680 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1382 1401 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.5 0.22 0.8 1 0.19 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.30 102 102 102 102 105 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.50 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 1.64 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 617.29 623 620 616 616 591 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 96.60 98.09 99.75 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -3.40 -1.9 -0.24 0.81 1.4 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 96.30 96.03 95.82 95.7 95.63 95.55 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 88.40 88.04 87.91 87.86 87.85 87.84 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.40 7.84 8.51 8.86 9.07 9.37 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 17 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.25 3 3.04 3.04 3.04 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6440.00 6424 6376 6326 6274 5309 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 41350.00 42164 43192 44244 45321 64936 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 144520.00 149333 154278 159386 164664 268392 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 329088.89 327262 326826 325996 325109 316144 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 555.60 976 906 907 917 1133 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3220000.00 3197297 3160221 3117268 3073948 2640840 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7510.00 14467 13866 13984 14079 14100 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 14.40 10.5 11.92 10.22 10.22 13.17 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 987870.32 1008722 1041425 1071656 1102778 1556217 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade 455.62 468 475 470 505 470 USD HML [+]
Exports 1727.63 1745 1634 1604 1630 2099 USD HML [+]
Imports 1272.00 1236 1182 1168 1480 2084 USD HML [+]
Current Account 481.00 757 754 832 813 791 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 2.7 2.82 2.94 2.86 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 12882 14520 16158 16642 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 108.94 110 109 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 453.00 618 709 616 669 663 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -481.00 -406 -415 -663 -476 -513 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 165 171 159 167 166 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1762.32 1770 1770 1770 1770 1770 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 4206.00 4265 4280 4294 4308 4521 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.29 5.88 6.17 6.47 6.42 6.42 [+]
Exports to India 4425293.00 4225034 4445496 4265931 4451755 4266010 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 49.49 50.09 50.14 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.14 -2.17 -2.2 -2.18 -2.33 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 2414.00 -1963 -1449 -1318 -1303 -1396 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 181279 188068 194858 198828 263760 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 15523.00 15855 12821 12535 12645 12807 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 13109.00 18218 17118 15984 16173 16390 CNY HML [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 50.10 49 49 50.2 50.4 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 49.40 47.1 48.3 49.8 50.2 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 51.80 51.1 52 51.64 51.64 51.65 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 53.21 53.27 53.3 53.29 53.29 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.00 6 5.8 5.4 5 4.8 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.47 0.53 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.90 6.6 6.3 6 5.2 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 51.00 50.01 50.24 50.07 50.11 50.11 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 12004.70 11644 11348 11053 10794 11898 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2122400.00 2321068 2038839 2201123 2200564 2201969 [+]
Car Production 1834400.00 1990329 1923285 1920540 1923737 1923774 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1779100.00 1973333 1738843 1883173 1884042 1887235 [+]
Leading Economic Index 99.05 98.42 98.66 98.63 98.58 98.61 Index Points [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 50.00 50.34 50.33 50.31 50.31 50.31 [+]
Steel Production 69420.00 71756 70391 70443 70706 70690 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.89 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.85 4.75 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Cement Production 21626.00 21418 20684 20964 20954 20926 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 561240.00 2405682 4516691 2953068 2733780 3255305 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 87 87 87 87 89 [+]
Electricity Production 477884.00 446316 460271 462168 460724 460660 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 35 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 91 91 91 88 87 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.00 104 102 103 103 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.83 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.10 9 10.41 11 9 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 241541.70 253924 245965 251934 251429 262071 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 32274 33041 33807 34371 41938 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.33 4.33 4.33 4.33 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 117.80 117 117 117 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 202089.70 209930 221226 231992 242177 318474 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 1.07 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 38.80 40.69 41.37 42.05 42.73 52.83 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Housing Index 6.20 1.19 2.42 12.27 13.1 14.29 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 5/25/2016