China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.05 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 520.49 452 437 300 300 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.09 50.14 50.2 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 6.68 6.73 6.79 6.86 6.93 7.99 [+]
Stock Market 2989.10 3050 3020 2990 2960 2470 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.78 2.73 2.75 2.78 2.81 3.24 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 4.8 percent [+]
GDP 10866.44 11300 11300 12300 12300 14500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 673837.10 688818 694484 697176 699868 598362 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 281000 272000 268000 281000 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6416.18 6695 6695 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13400.27 14070 14070 14520 14520 18450 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 22097.00 14788 26760 -1601 11265 10107 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 19878.00 23771 23275 23338 23330 23331 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 114943.00 131626 129582 129832 129801 129805 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 184290.00 191630 190789 190885 190874 190875 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 15537.00 6944 9633 570 4698 3802 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 340637.00 489000 683000 150000 364000 790000 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.05 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77675 77720 77784 77848 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 978.00 978 979 979 978 977 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.60 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4970000.00 4640706 4392230 4997046 4773611 4665829 [+]
Wages 62029.00 67000 67000 72200 72200 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 58700 58700 59700 59700 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2130 2300 2300 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1379 1381 1383 1384 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.30 102 103 104 105 117 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.60 102 103 104 105 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 623 624 624 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 99.20 99.87 101 102 102 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 -1.5 -1 -0.8 -0.5 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 97.70 97.55 97.58 97.62 97.64 97.66 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 96.60 100 101 99.77 98.64 97.71 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.30 0.77 0.23 0.91 1.3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.84 2.8 2.93 2.93 2.93 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6345.47 6301 6255 6208 6159 5337 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 45454.36 45216 46636 48096 49598 75873 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 151098.29 0 157727 162954 168355 265727 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 333936.25 336528 337986 339713 341336 354863 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 948.70 806 910 1010 1010 1158 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3185167.00 3178104 3143187 3106255 3069813 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 14700.00 13048 12580 12822 13088 13145 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.25 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.00 14 13.9 14.1 14.1 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1025418.29 1033812 1064088 1092632 1121511 1517420 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade 520.49 452 437 300 300 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1905.92 1863 1841 1530 1530 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1385.43 1389 1359 1230 1630 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 594.00 757 754 832 813 791 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 3.29 3.3 3.42 3.53 3.93 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 14520 16158 16642 17126 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 101.14 99.92 99.78 99.77 99.77 99.78 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 858.80 789 1120 1120 1120 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -594.00 -215 -400 -229 -438 -337 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 149 151 154 153 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1823.30 1829 1834 1836 1838 1839 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3973.00 4024 4038 4050 4062 4232 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.29 6.17 6.47 6.42 6.37 6.42 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 5618919.00 5826608 5510953 5737767 5515112 5515026 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.09 50.14 50.2 50.2 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.32 -2.24 -2.13 -2.02 -2.06 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -4293.00 -3512 -2057 -1681 -1541 -1499 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 188662 197040 201658 206276 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 9894.00 12800 13666 13373 13361 13334 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 14187.00 17100 17222 16434 16284 16211 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 50.40 50 50.3 50.4 50.4 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.00 49.3 50 50.2 50.2 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 52.10 51.8 51.81 51.87 51.88 51.88 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 52.5 53.2 53.2 53.2 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.30 6 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.53 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.80 6.3 6 5.2 5.2 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 51.30 51.15 50.88 50.99 50.98 50.98 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11077 10902 11010 11118 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2071000.00 2040000 2083535 2075558 2077982 2079537 [+]
Car Production 1722800.00 1772877 1800829 1790718 1790066 1790751 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1795500.00 1740000 1796975 1792869 1793347 1795028 [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.10 0.04 -0.04 0 -0.01 -0.01 percent [+]
Steel Production 68570.00 67154 67495 67803 67786 67728 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.80 54.05 54.75 54.76 54.78 54.78 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.89 4.88 4.88 4.86 4.86 4.77 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Cement Production 21772.00 21680 21286 21439 21392 21394 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 3523590.00 3970182 3193219 2972000 3378759 3263975 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 87.97 88.07 88.47 88.87 90.68 [+]
Electricity Production 561700.00 531187 545084 541059 539827 540306 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 36 38.89 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 93.55 94.2 91.8 89.4 91.46 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 105.60 106 106 105 105 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.83 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.60 9.9 10 10.1 9.8 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 263869 269731 269982 270233 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 33221 34052 34705 35358 44070 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 111.50 113 113 114 114 114 [+]
Consumer Credit 224702.74 229892 245989 261320 275919 401581 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63 1.07 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 40.70 42.06 42.63 43.3 43.98 53.54 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Housing Index 9.20 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 9/26/2016