China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 239.20 300 365 400 353 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 43.34 55.43 44.13 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 6.88 6.94 7.01 7.21 7.14 7.9 [+]
Stock Market 3129.53 3190 3160 3060 3090 2580 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.48 3.34 3.38 3.41 3.44 3.97 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.90 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11007.72 12600 12600 12600 13400 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 762118 786041 809963 822625 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 300382 300059 299735 301458 324891 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 13958 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 180683.00 364000 519000 696000 420292 790000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8654.00 23000 42000 65000 31477 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 8361.00 29003 25687 26220 26134 26146 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 61919.00 143059 132210 133660 133466 133489 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 102024.00 236179 217993 220458 220124 220164 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 8105.00 20338 18573 18827 18791 18795 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77785 77818 77850 77908 78525 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 982.00 982 981 981 981 980 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.60 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5903000.00 5459008 5176222 4912700 5928969 5350877 [+]
Wages 62029.00 75200 75200 75200 81300 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 61100 61100 61100 65600 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2300.00 2300 2300 2300 2430 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1378 1379 1381 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.18 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.90 102 102 102 103 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.00 105 106 107 102 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.00 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 622 625 624 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.60 100 100 101 103 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.60 8.7 7.4 6 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 106.68 109 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 113.88 118 119 119 119 119 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -4.40 1.3 1.5 3 1.1 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16.99 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.72 4.55 4.25 4.54 4.54 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6860.00 7244 7199 7175 7170 7068 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 48880.00 50300 51898 53449 54982 70772 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 159960.00 163992 167830 171624 175401 216232 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 337353.68 341660 342398 342679 342923 344693 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1020.00 1010 1000 1064 1064 1064 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3009000.00 2984051 2950719 2915665 2881369 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 21200.00 17872 16610 16234 16229 16286 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.25 1.55 1.72 1.78 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 12.40 14.1 12.55 13.2 13.87 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1103898.29 1133571 1165574 1197034 1228529 1570477 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.52 2.56 2.59 2.6 2.61 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 9.20 9.27 9.26 9.27 9.26 9.26 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 239.20 300 365 400 353 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1806.09 1530 1772 1690 1766 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1566.84 1630 1432 1290 1438 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 118.00 514 295 190 231 317 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.80 2.75 2.49 2.24 2.39 3.12 percent [+]
External Debt 14207.00 15366 15317 15268 15526 18276 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 93.67 93.44 93.42 93.42 93.42 93.42 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 329.10 1120 733 1250 679 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -376.00 -402 -471 -364 -358 -390 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 153 152 152 153 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1848 1849 1850 1850 1850 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3949.00 3750 3733 3718 3933 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 5.73 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 5780536.00 4549151 5405377 5029020 5351823 5186756 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 43.34 55.43 44.13 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -3.54 -4 -4.46 -4.22 -3.41 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 321.27 -4044 -2795 -2187 -1879 -1578 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 198654 200688 202723 206393 246179 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 12912.00 13007 13442 13603 13697 13807 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 21052.20 18434 17373 16835 16586 16444 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 51.80 50.4 51.69 51 51.68 51 [+]
Services PMI 52.20 52 52.2 52.5 52.7 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.20 51.7 51.4 51.7 51.3 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.10 53.2 54.95 54.99 54.99 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 7.60 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.83 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.63 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.00 5.2 7.82 7.82 7.84 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.30 53.01 53.05 53.05 53.05 53.05 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11253 11077 10902 11010 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2500000.00 2538586 2469355 2436801 2443669 2443847 [+]
Car Production 2188000.00 2223448 2170535 2162075 2169739 2168248 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2096300.00 2162916 2134283 2081942 2090924 2095008 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.10 -0.01 0 -0.01 0 0 percent [+]
Mining Production -0.80 -1.48 -2.13 -1.66 -2.01 -1.91 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 61187.00 62973 62358 62379 62505 62493 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.99 4.95 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 26 26 26 29 29 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.10 51.66 51.39 51.27 51.21 51.15 [+]
Cement Production 20162.40 21270 20894 20901 20958 20934 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 10156800.00 9355076 9556495 9529035 9527679 9529792 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 78 76 74 75 94 [+]
Electricity Production 532900.00 511493 513226 513080 512909 512949 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 36 39 38 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 84 82 81 85 90 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 111.00 110 108 108 107 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.84 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.81 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.90 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.31 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 258008 263869 269731 269982 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 34752 35181 35610 36114 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 1 1 0.29 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 262516.41 276596 290582 303834 316305 401837 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.58 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 43.20 45.04 45.74 46.46 47.2 54.96 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 11.30 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.29 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 4/24/2017