China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.48 1.07 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.05 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 2 2.3 2.2 4.51 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 3.85 3.85 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 600.93 524 523 525 524 524 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 41.06 49.12 49.49 50.09 50.14 65.49 percent [+]
Markets Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Currency 6.51 6.77 6.9 6.97 7.04 5.36 [+]
Stock Market 2763.49 2680 2600 2520 2460 3420 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.86 2.97 3.06 3.2 3.35 4.37 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.60 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.48 1.07 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 5.5 percent [+]
GDP 10354.80 11345 11345 11345 11345 15395 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 634367.30 668415 686806 705197 723588 1218328 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 283017.60 280097 280642 294818 298751 577033 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 3865.88 3933 3988 4042 4097 5248 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 12608.87 12843 13064 13286 13507 19179 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 60863.00 30521 33301 33046 33070 33068 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 46456.00 7659 18499 31000 46431 46253 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 228974.00 142266 149948 149268 149328 149323 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 341567.00 215158 221285 220988 221003 221002 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 30364.00 18322 19280 19204 19210 19209 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 676708.00 148089 324952 514473 730011 853188 CNY HML [+]
Labour Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.05 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77584 77630 77675 77720 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 962.00 961 963 962 961 961 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 104.30 104 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4390000.00 4804594 5089992 4746885 4422361 4667259 [+]
Wages 56339.00 60674 61463 62252 63154 79556 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 51369.00 54134 52686 52686 52686 114549 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2130 2130 2130 2580 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1377 1378 1379 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Prices Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 2 2.3 2.2 4.51 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.3 0.5 0.19 0.19 0.19 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.60 102 102 102 102 105 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.50 102 102 102 102 102 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.50 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 617.29 629 625 622 618 626 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 94.10 95.06 96.56 98.02 99.2 101 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -5.90 -4.93 -3.43 -1.97 -0.79 0.84 percent [+]
Export Prices 101.00 103 103 103 103 104 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 88.00 88.57 88.68 88.71 88.72 88.73 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.70 3.1 2.85 2.88 2.91 2.94 percent [+]
Money Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 3.85 3.85 5 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.50 17 17 17 17.26 20 Percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.06 3 3 3.1 3.1 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6320.00 5982 5943 5902 5859 4943 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 40100.00 40091 41116 42163 43234 64281 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 139230.00 143636 148457 153439 158589 268908 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 317836.97 311799 304399 297394 290903 233772 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 597.80 855 867 880 892 1120 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3230000.00 3086569 2892104 2720813 2566299 1367224 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 18151.00 13619 12493 12439 12508 12555 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 2.75 2.88 2.92 2.96 3 2.86 percent [+]
Loan Growth 14.30 12.8 10.5 11.92 10.22 14.37 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 936386.69 962382 988336 1014274 1040112 1445509 CNY HML [+]
Trade Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Balance of Trade 600.93 524 523 525 524 524 USD HML [+]
Exports 2241.89 1579 1745 2144 2120 2125 USD HML [+]
Imports 1640.96 1239 1236 1528 1491 1500 USD HML [+]
Current Account 843.00 953 617 631 836 655 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 3.26 3.28 3.29 3.3 3.93 percent [+]
External Debt 8955.00 9484 9534 9583 9632 12521 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 114.77 113 110 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1262.70 327 618 776 735 730 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -843.00 -474 -404 -413 -659 -509 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 164.90 182 172 173 173 173 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1762.32 1786 1794 1798 1800 1801 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 4259.00 4301 4316 4330 4344 4576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 [+]
Exports to India 5174780.00 5171506 5217438 5216963 5216136 5216810 USD THO [+]
Government Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Government Debt to GDP 41.06 49.12 49.49 50.09 50.14 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.10 -1.89 -2.13 -2.36 -2.6 -2.34 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -13262.57 -4589 -2888 -1987 -1546 -1190 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 171905 180283 188662 197040 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 12282.05 11841 15855 12821 12448 12487 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 25544.62 17170 18218 17118 16013 15781 CNY HML [+]
Credit Rating 79.09 [+]
Business Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Business Confidence 49.40 49 45 49.47 49.48 49.48 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.40 49.6 50.9 50.2 50.4 51.4 [+]
Services PMI 52.40 50.9 51.1 52 51.55 51.55 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 53.73 53.64 53.68 53.7 53.69 percent [+]
Industrial Production 5.90 6.39 6 5.8 6.34 6.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.41 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.00 7.92 9.78 10.4 10.78 16.37 percent [+]
New Orders 49.50 49.54 49.57 49.54 49.55 49.55 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 12004.70 12297 12106 11915 11724 11770 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2785500.00 2138839 2256270 2038839 2299755 2296861 [+]
Car Production 2321000.00 1965479 1915888 1965711 1962587 1958917 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2442100.00 1959292 1961490 1738843 2016666 2011378 [+]
Leading Economic Index 98.12 97.42 98.03 97.99 98 97.99 Index Points [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 52.30 52.63 52.54 52.55 52.55 52.55 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.89 4.88 4.88 4.88 4.88 4.77 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 27.24 27.24 27.24 27.24 27.73 [+]
Cement Production 19797.00 20933 20995 20845 20916 20902 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 6355400.00 1121253 2405682 4128375 4261001 3859007 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 84.00 87.77 87.87 87.97 88.07 90.68 [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36.54 36.63 36.72 36.82 37.86 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 92.23 92.89 93.55 94.2 91.46 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.70 102 104 104 104 104 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.82 0.8 0.7 0.84 0.84 0.84 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 11.10 9.5 9 11 11 11 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 241541.70 252429 253924 241913 246815 258806 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 28844.00 30087 30810 31533 32257 51639 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.29 4.26 4.25 4.24 4.23 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 114.90 114 115 115 115 115 [+]
Consumer Credit 186589.16 192726 200150 207237 207237 308930 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.62 0.59 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.07 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 37.90 39.91 40.55 41.22 41.9 52.58 percent of GDP [+]
Housing Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Housing Index 1.60 1.51 1.19 2.42 4.14 4.17 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 Percent [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 2/14/2016