China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 513.50 300 300 461 400 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 6.85 7.09 7.16 7.23 7.3 8.34 [+]
Stock Market 3253.43 3040 3010 2980 2950 2480 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.35 3.22 3.25 3.29 2.86 3.79 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11007.72 12600 12600 12600 12600 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 673837.10 677487 683153 688818 694484 598362 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 281000 272000 268000 281000 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 14520 18450 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 63671.00 8900 23000 42000 65000 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 49522.00 24951 24773 24797 24794 24794 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 187836.00 137490 136735 136832 136820 136821 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 384221.00 280177 333959 280461 333676 332042 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 33355.00 3203 5305 5971 5482 4084 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 744127.00 150000 364000 519000 696000 790000 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77584 77630 77675 77720 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 983.00 984 984 984 983 983 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.40 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4335000.00 5057496 4830678 4717145 4591846 4747057 [+]
Wages 62029.00 75200 75200 75200 75200 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 61100 61100 61100 61100 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2190.00 2190 2300 2300 2300 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1377 1378 1379 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.50 104 105 106 106 117 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.20 104 105 106 107 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 1.7 1.7 2.48 2.48 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 622 622 625 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.90 100 100 100 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 6.90 5.4 5.8 6 6 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.11 102 102 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 108.08 111 113 113 114 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.70 0.91 1.3 2.4 3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.55 4.41 4.32 4.25 4.33 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8660.00 7769 7908 7852 7844 7727 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 47250.00 49056 50660 52309 53932 72090 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 157590.00 160154 164278 168174 172013 217095 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 348267.65 350156 355795 360790 365352 399168 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2030.00 1010 1010 1000 1091 1091 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2998204.00 2937724 2868246 2803458 2742758 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 37400.00 20828 17761 17298 17028 16981 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.25 1.5 1.01 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 12.60 14.1 14.1 14.16 13.2 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1061666.80 1088370 1116147 1143861 1171512 1498511 CNY HML [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 8.10 8.06 8.08 8.08 8.08 8.08 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade 513.50 300 300 461 400 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1828.07 1530 1530 1861 1690 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1314.23 1230 1630 1443 1290 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 376.00 204 595 433 398 471 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.90 3.03 2.8 2.57 2.34 3.17 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 11244 12882 14520 16158 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 94.48 93.97 93.84 93.81 93.81 93.8 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 116.80 1120 1120 733 1250 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -376.00 -250 -402 -471 -364 -390 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 154 153 152 152 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1838.51 1848 1850 1852 1852 1853 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3780.00 3913 3920 3927 3934 4015 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.21 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 5491765.00 5369892 5191298 5392012 5186940 5186979 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -2.46 -2.39 -2.32 -2.24 -2.06 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -10700.61 -2037 -1666 -1506 -1474 -1553 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 171905 180283 188662 197040 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 11301.75 12694 12830 12937 12989 13065 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 22002.36 16460 16256 16145 16184 16271 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.30 50.4 50.4 51.27 51 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.00 52 51.7 51.4 51.7 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 53.10 52.9 52 52.2 52.5 52 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.60 53.2 53.2 54.79 54.8 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.00 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.46 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.30 5.2 5.2 10.57 11.24 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 52.80 52.5 52.64 52.58 52.58 52.59 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11429 11253 11077 10902 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2520000.00 2461015 2487689 2528655 2515308 2517920 [+]
Car Production 2071500.00 2017190 2139364 2167980 2142594 2150370 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2218200.00 2111399 2121271 2192927 2180037 2177290 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.10 -0.03 -0.01 0 -0.01 0 percent [+]
Steel Production 67220.00 66818 66597 66554 66593 66598 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.22 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.89 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.20 51.61 51.33 51.2 51.16 51.13 [+]
Cement Production 19979.00 21338 21470 21209 21311 21295 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 6880320.00 2949750 3202016 4253668 3850372 3734403 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 81.95 81.6 81.25 80.89 85.4 [+]
Electricity Production 532900.00 510822 511493 513226 513080 512949 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 36 36 39 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 92.23 92.89 93.55 94.2 91.46 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 109.20 109 108 107 106 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.89 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.90 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.6 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 252146 258008 263869 269731 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 31560 32390 33221 34052 44070 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.29 1 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 246381.21 262330 277618 292184 306050 415441 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.70 0.75 0.65 0.63 0.6 0.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 41.80 43.73 44.41 45.12 45.84 54.18 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 12.20 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 2/25/2017