China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.80 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -91.50 300 300 356 400 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 6.87 6.95 7.02 7.09 7.22 8.26 [+]
Stock Market 3248.55 3210 3180 3150 3080 2600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.36 3.37 3.41 3.44 3.47 4.01 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 11007.72 12600 12600 12600 12600 14800 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 742352.00 738196 762118 786041 809963 982649 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 281000 272000 268000 281000 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6497.50 6890 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13571.70 14520 14520 14520 14520 18450 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 744127.00 150000 364000 519000 696000 790000 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 63671.00 8900 23000 42000 65000 71372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 49522.00 24951 24773 24797 24794 24794 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 187836.00 137490 136735 136832 136820 136821 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 384221.00 240067 247695 247291 247312 247311 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 33355.00 3203 5305 5971 5482 4084 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.02 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77603.00 77584 77630 77675 77720 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 982.00 982 982 981 981 980 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.40 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4335000.00 5057496 4830678 4717145 4591846 4747057 [+]
Wages 62029.00 75200 75200 75200 75200 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 61100 61100 61100 61100 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2190.00 2190 2300 2300 2300 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1377 1378 1379 1381 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.80 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.80 102 102 102 102 104 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.80 104 105 106 107 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 622 622 625 624 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 107.80 100 100 100 101 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 7.80 8.4 8.7 7.4 6 5.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 102.11 102 102 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 108.08 111 113 113 114 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -4.30 0.91 1.3 1.5 3 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 4.90 4.44 4.59 4.25 4.58 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 7170.00 7080 7336 7310 7290 7182 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 47650.00 48498 49981 51486 52958 69339 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 158290.00 159831 163826 167640 171411 215736 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 345469.66 348017 352389 356359 359955 386646 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1170.00 1010 1010 1000 1097 1097 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3005000.00 2987192 2945300 2900049 2855607 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 11500.00 20267 17670 16550 16142 16174 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.25 1.5 1.01 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.00 14.1 14.1 14.61 13.2 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1093646.84 1104589 1134310 1166555 1198196 1573857 CNY HML [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 2.45 2.32 2.5 2.54 2.57 2.59 percent [+]
Fixed Asset Investment 8.90 8.62 8.59 8.63 8.62 8.62 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -91.50 300 300 356 400 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1200.80 1530 1530 1654 1690 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1292.30 1230 1630 1413 1290 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 376.00 204 595 433 398 471 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 1.90 3.03 2.8 2.57 2.34 3.17 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 11244 12882 14520 16158 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 94.48 93.97 93.84 93.81 93.81 93.8 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 201.00 1120 1120 733 1250 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -376.00 -250 -402 -471 -364 -390 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 154 153 152 152 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1842.56 1846 1848 1849 1850 1850 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3780.00 3767 3750 3733 3718 3576 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 6.21 6.07 5.93 5.79 5.73 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 3655027.00 3980998 3842173 4255052 4007223 4058847 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.2 50.2 43.34 55.43 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.80 -2.46 -2.39 -2.32 -2.24 -2.06 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 321.27 -5605 -4044 -2795 -2187 -1578 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 187841.00 171905 180283 188662 197040 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 11245.91 10695 11866 12458 12794 13413 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 10924.64 17299 17425 16368 16240 16001 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.60 50.4 50.4 51.56 51 51 [+]
Services PMI 52.60 52.9 52 52.2 52.5 52 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.70 52 51.7 51.4 51.7 53.4 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.20 53.2 53.2 54.4 54.4 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.30 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.90 5.2 5.2 6.95 6.94 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 53.00 53.57 53.21 53.28 53.26 53.27 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 11429 11253 11077 10902 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 1939200.00 2108584 2389092 2394618 2318474 2339093 [+]
Car Production 1847500.00 1839085 2091161 2098092 2041240 2062441 Units [+]
Car Registrations 1632700.00 1730530 2002485 2093844 1971144 1997262 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.10 -0.03 -0.01 0 -0.01 0 percent [+]
Mining Production -3.60 -2.92 -2.64 -3.01 -2.84 -2.9 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 55.90 55.22 55.05 55.1 55.1 55.1 [+]
Steel Production 67200.00 67410 67139 67101 67149 67152 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.89 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.60 52.09 51.64 51.36 51.23 51.1 [+]
Cement Production 19979.00 21338 21470 21209 21311 21295 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 6880320.00 2949750 3202016 4253668 3850372 3734403 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 81.95 81.6 81.25 80.89 85.4 [+]
Electricity Production 532900.00 510822 511493 513226 513080 512949 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 36 36 39 38 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 92.23 92.89 93.55 94.2 91.46 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 109.20 109 108 107 106 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.95 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 9.50 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.6 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 252146 258008 263869 269731 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 33616.00 34324 34752 35181 35610 41768 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.29 1 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 116.60 116 116 116 116 116 [+]
Consumer Credit 255813.80 261593 275403 289339 302751 441857 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.69 0.75 0.65 0.63 0.6 0.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 43.20 44.49 45.04 45.74 46.46 54.96 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Housing Index 11.80 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 3/23/2017