China | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 4.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 490.56 437 300 300 477 415 USD HML [+]
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.14 50.2 50.2 44.34 65.49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 6.87 6.97 7.04 7.11 7.18 8.28 [+]
Stock Market 3199.89 3170 3140 3110 3080 2560 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 3.05 2.9 2.93 2.96 2.98 3.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.70 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 5.8 percent [+]
GDP 10866.44 11300 12300 12300 12300 14500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 673837.10 694484 697176 699868 702560 598362 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 292396.50 281000 272000 268000 281000 84500 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 6416.18 6695 6890 6890 6890 8330 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 13400.27 14070 14520 14520 14520 18450 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 40666.00 28715 -1237 5527 11515 10372 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 33193.00 23648 24951 24773 24797 24794 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 177101.00 131631 137490 136735 136832 136821 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 279890.00 334244 280177 333959 280461 332042 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 24160.00 13913 3203 5305 5971 4084 CNY HML [+]
GDP Constant Prices 529971.00 683000 150000 364000 519000 790000 CNY HML [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.04 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 77451.00 77720 77784 77848 77912 78698 Tens of Thousands [+]
Unemployed Persons 983.00 984 984 984 984 983 Thousand [+]
Labour Costs 103.30 103 103 103 103 103 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4750000.00 4473862 5057496 4830678 4717145 4747057 [+]
Wages 62029.00 67000 72200 72200 72200 90300 CNY/Year [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 55324.00 58700 59700 59700 59700 74500 CNY/Year [+]
Minimum Wages 2020.00 2130 2300 2300 2300 2620 CNY/Month [+]
Population 1374.62 1381 1383 1384 1386 1407 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 4.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.10 103 104 105 103 117 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.80 103 104 105 102 115 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.95 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 622.50 624 624 624 625 640 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.20 100 100 100 100 103 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.20 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 2 percent [+]
Export Prices 96.93 97.61 97.66 97.66 97.65 97.64 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.20 101 101 101 101 101 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.70 0.23 0.91 1.3 3.62 6 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 4.35 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 17.00 16 16 16 16 20 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.50 3.23 3.44 3.43 2.85 4.08 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 6420.00 6464 6420 6373 6326 5581 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 46540.00 46868 48338 49844 51390 75854 CNY Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 151950.00 156469 161477 166646 171980 259027 CNY Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 342058.04 341097 345171 348465 351417 374249 CNY HML [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 651.30 937 1010 1010 1000 1143 CNY Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3121000.00 3076394 3009548 2951831 2899079 2840000 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8963.00 12703 12568 13025 13253 13279 CNY HML [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.5 1.25 1.1 3.5 percent [+]
Loan Growth 13.10 13.9 14.1 14.1 16.03 12.7 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 1043723.75 1062695 1091099 1119440 1147718 1509670 CNY HML [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade 490.56 437 300 300 477 415 USD HML [+]
Exports 1781.78 1817 1530 1530 1810 2100 USD HML [+]
Imports 1291.21 1366 1230 1630 1371 1680 USD HML [+]
Current Account 712.00 757 754 832 813 791 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.70 3.3 3.42 3.53 3.65 3.93 percent [+]
External Debt 14162.00 16158 16642 17126 17611 23568 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 97.71 97.27 97.19 97.17 97.17 97.17 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 969.40 1120 1120 1120 697 1290 USD HML [+]
Capital Flows -712.00 -402 -260 -408 -484 -402 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 128.50 151 154 153 152 152 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1838.51 1845 1848 1850 1852 1853 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3874.00 3921 3931 3940 3949 4064 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 6.11 5.79 5.73 5.67 5.61 5.73 [+]
Weapons Sales 1966.00 1755 1892 2028 2004 1980 USD Million [+]
Exports to India 4774033.00 4949841 5124205 4930273 5130710 4929642 USD THO [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 43.90 50.14 50.2 50.2 44.34 65.49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.30 -2.24 -2.13 -2.02 -1.91 -2.06 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 3540.00 -4270 -2825 -2128 -1827 -1633 CNY HML [+]
Government Spending 175768.00 197040 201658 206276 210894 269468 CNY HML [+]
Government Revenues 15359.00 12999 12906 13156 13248 13367 CNY HML [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 11819.00 18159 16565 16162 16015 16040 CNY HML [+]
Military Expenditure 214485.50 221766 225602 229439 233375 289184 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.70 50.3 50.4 50.4 51.17 51 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.90 50 50.2 50.2 50.4 53.4 [+]
Services PMI 53.10 51.8 51.9 51.9 52 52 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.70 53.2 53.2 53.2 54.57 52 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.10 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.50 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 6.70 6 5.2 5.2 15.59 4.5 percent [+]
New Orders 52.80 52.46 52.4 52.44 52.44 52.43 Index Points [+]
Changes in Inventories 11109.60 10902 11010 11118 11226 11064 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2649900.00 2429583 2296223 2333228 2331592 2328592 [+]
Car Production 2287100.00 2109309 1991937 2027728 2025276 2023242 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2344100.00 2186566 2002172 2037957 2050134 2043333 [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.20 -0.15 0.04 -0.03 0 -0.01 percent [+]
Steel Production 68510.00 68331 68520 68538 68502 68500 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 53.10 52.78 53.22 53.19 53.18 53.18 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.95 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.89 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 29 29 29 29 30 [+]
Cement Production 22783.30 21859 21662 21908 21827 21834 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corporate Profits 5256770.00 4017057 2709429 3493748 3911695 3518376 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 78.00 82.3 81.6 81.25 80.89 85.4 [+]
Electricity Production 487600.00 521061 510873 508587 509723 509772 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 37.00 36 36 36 37.61 38.95 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 83.00 94.2 91.8 89.4 87 91.46 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.20 107 106 106 105 105 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.71 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 10.00 10 10.1 9.8 9.7 8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 264757.60 269731 269982 270233 270483 281025 CNY HML [+]
Disposable Personal Income 31195.00 34052 34705 35358 36011 44070 CNY [+]
Personal Savings 0.35 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.28 3 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.35 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 percent [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 114.90 115 115 115 115 115 [+]
Consumer Credit 234847.84 245119 259602 273329 286298 385509 CNY HML [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.61 0.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 40.70 42.63 43.3 43.98 44.68 53.54 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Housing Index 12.30 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 2 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 90.00 90 90 90 90 90 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 45 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 17.00 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 48.00 48 48 48 48 48 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 37.00 37 37 37 37 37 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00 11 11 11 11 11 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy. 12/5/2016