China Interest Rate

Interest Rate Term Structure Definition


The interest rate term structure is the relation between the interest rate and the time to maturity of the debt for a given borrower in a given currency. For example, the current U.S. dollar interest rates paid on U.S. Treasury securities for various maturities are closely watched by many traders, and are commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right which is informally called "the yield curve." More formal mathematical descriptions of this relation are often called the term structure of interest rates.

Yield curves are usually upward sloping asymptotically; the longer the maturity, the higher the yield, with diminishing marginal growth. There are two common explanations for this phenomenon. First, it may be that the market is anticipating a rise in the risk-free rate. If investors hold off investing now, they may receive a better rate in the future. Therefore, under the arbitrage pricing theory, investors who are willing to lock their money in now need to be compensated for the anticipated rise in rates — thus the higher interest rate on long-term investments.However, interest rates can fall just as they can rise.

Another explanation is that longer maturities entail greater risks for the investor (i.e. the lender). Risk premium should be paid, since with longer maturities, more catastrophic events might occur that impact the investment. This explanation depends on the notion that the economy faces more uncertainties in the distant future than in the near term, and the risk of future adverse events (such as default and higher short-term interest rates) is higher than the chance of future positive events (such as lower short-term interest rates). This effect is referred to as the liquidity spread. If the market expects more volatility in the future, even if interest rates are anticipated to decline, the increase in the risk premium can influence the spread and cause an increasing yield (source: wikipedia).