China’s 10-year government bond yield edged lower to around 1.81% on Monday, marking its lowest level in nearly three weeks as investors sought safer assets amid concerns that the ongoing Middle East war could derail global economic growth. The conflict has entered its fifth week, with President Trump warning that the US could “take the oil in Iran,” including seizing Kharg Island. Tensions have further escalated as Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched missiles toward Israel. In China, Premier Li Qiang outlined a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, emphasizing that policymakers will “strive for better outcomes in actual implementation.” He also noted that achieving the 2% inflation target will be challenging, as price growth in 2025 was close to zero amid weak domestic demand. Against this backdrop, China’s monetary policy is expected to remain supportive and moderately accommodative until a clearer recovery in prices takes hold, providing a stable environment for the bond market.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.81% on March 30, 2026, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.06 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the China 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 4.80 in September of 2007. China 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March 30 of 2026.

The yield on China 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.81% on March 30, 2026, marking a 0.01 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.06 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The China 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 1.82 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.71 in 12 months time.



Bonds Yield Day Month Year Date
China 10Y 1.81 -0.010% 0.009% -0.060% Mar/30
China 52W 1.20 -0.047% -0.107% -0.332% Mar/30
China 20Y 2.31 -0.103% -0.070% 0.190% Mar/30
China 2Y 1.26 -0.056% -0.105% -0.190% Mar/30
China 30Y 2.34 -0.012% 0.066% 0.323% Mar/30
China 3Y 1.30 -0.030% -0.088% -0.220% Mar/30
China 5Y 1.52 -0.018% -0.014% -0.128% Mar/30
China 7Y 1.67 -0.020% -0.003% -0.060% Mar/30



Related Last Previous Unit Reference
China Inflation Rate 1.30 0.20 percent Feb 2026
China Loan Prime Rate 3.00 3.00 percent Mar 2026
China Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.20 percent Feb 2026

China 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.81 1.82 4.80 1.59 2000 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
China 10-Year Yield Hits Near 3-Week Low
China’s 10-year government bond yield edged lower to around 1.81% on Monday, marking its lowest level in nearly three weeks as investors sought safer assets amid concerns that the ongoing Middle East war could derail global economic growth. The conflict has entered its fifth week, with President Trump warning that the US could “take the oil in Iran,” including seizing Kharg Island. Tensions have further escalated as Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched missiles toward Israel. In China, Premier Li Qiang outlined a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, emphasizing that policymakers will “strive for better outcomes in actual implementation.” He also noted that achieving the 2% inflation target will be challenging, as price growth in 2025 was close to zero amid weak domestic demand. Against this backdrop, China’s monetary policy is expected to remain supportive and moderately accommodative until a clearer recovery in prices takes hold, providing a stable environment for the bond market.
2026-03-30
China 10-Year Yield Edges Higher
China’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher to around 1.81% on Friday, rebounding from a two-week low hit in the previous session as markets assessed potential de-escalation in the Middle East and strong economic data from China. In the latest development, US President Donald Trump said the pause on attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure would be extended into April, adding that talks with Tehran were “going very well.” However, an Iranian official rejected a reported US proposal to end the conflict as “one-sided and unfair.” Meanwhile, China’s industrial profits surged 15.2% year-on-year to CNY 1.02 trillion in the first two months of 2026, a sharp rebound from 0.6% growth in 2025. The figures point to growing momentum in China’s recovery, even as geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the global outlook. On the diplomatic front, US President Donald Trump’s first visit to China in eight years has been rescheduled for May?14–15 after being delayed due to the Iran war.
2026-03-26
China 10Y Yield Edges Down
China’s 10-year government bond yield edged down to around 1.82%, trading in a narrow range as investors weighed conflicting developments on Middle East tensions. US President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure after what he described as productive talks between the two countries. However, Iran's foreign ministry denied the talks shortly thereafter, adding that the country's conditions to end the war had not changed. Tehran also said it had launched new attacks on US targets, while Israel continued its strikes on Iran, keeping geopolitical risks elevated and clouding the outlook for energy prices. Meanwhile, China stands to gain from the conflict due to its lower energy dependence and its edge in renewables. China's Premier Li also vowed to boost imports of high-quality foreign goods and promote balanced trade, while PBoC Governor Pan sought to calm concerns over China’s trade surplus.
2026-03-24