The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday as policymakers confront soaring energy costs and the prospect of sustained inflation in the coming months, fueled by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This move, the first in a year, follows an acceleration in eurozone inflation, with consumer prices rising 3.2% in May, up from 3% in April and well above the ECB’s 2% target. Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, also climbed to 2.5% from 2.2% in April. Alongside the rate decision, the ECB will release updated macroeconomic projections, with experts anticipating significant upward revisions to inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Investors will closely parse President Lagarde’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Markets currently price in two to three rate hikes this year, though uncertainty lingers after data revealed the eurozone economy contracted in Q1 2026. source: European Central Bank

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. Interest Rate in Euro Area averaged 1.88 percent from 1998 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0.00 percent in March of 2016. This page provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Euro Area Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2026.

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 2.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2027 and 2.15 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-05 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15% 2.15% 2.15% 2.15%
2026-03-19 01:15 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15% 2.15% 2.15% 2.15%
2026-04-30 12:15 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15% 2.15% 2.15% 2.15%
2026-06-11 12:15 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 2.15% 2.4% 2.4%
2026-06-25 07:00 AM ECB General Council Meeting
2026-06-29 12:00 AM ECB Forum on Central Banking


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6136317.00 6162017.00 EUR Million Jun 2026
Deposit Facility Rate 2.00 2.00 percent May 2026
Foreign Exchange Reserves 121.29 123.42 USD Billion Apr 2026
ECB Interest Rate 2.15 2.15 percent May 2026
Marginal Lending Rate 2.40 2.40 percent May 2026
Loans to Households YoY 3.00 3.00 percent Apr 2026
Loans to Non-financial Corporations 5409680.00 5383316.00 EUR Million Apr 2026
Longer-Term Refinancing Operations 13.25 13.25 EUR Billion Jun 2026
Money Supply M0 4103209.00 4180377.00 EUR Million May 2026
Money Supply M1 11265075.00 11285871.00 EUR Million Apr 2026
Money Supply M2 16289850.00 16282398.00 EUR Million Apr 2026
Money Supply M3 17433911.00 17447434.00 EUR Million Apr 2026
Refinancing Operations 11.82 14.94 EUR Billion Jun 2026


Euro Area Interest Rate
In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.15 2.15 4.75 0.00 1998 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
ECB Officials Were Open to a Rate Rise in April: Minutes
A number of ECB members viewed the April decision to keep rates unchanged as a close call and indicated they would have supported a rate hike had it been proposed, according to the latest ECB meeting minutes. Policymakers warned that the energy-driven supply shock was proving more persistent than previously expected, increasing the risk of broader and more entrenched inflationary pressures, while the war in the Middle East was seen as a key source of uncertainty for both inflation and growth. Members also acknowledged the increasingly difficult trade-off facing monetary policy, as slowing economic activity and weakening confidence coincided with rising inflation risks. Several officials noted that even with two projected rate hikes this year, inflation was still expected to remain slightly above the ECB’s target. Investors expect the ECB to raise its key rates by 25 basis points on June 11, with at least one additional hike priced in by the end of the year.
2026-05-28
ECB Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance, assessing the impact of the Iran war on inflation and growth. While the ECB remains well-positioned to navigate uncertainty, officials noted that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified. They emphasized that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, though shorter-term expectations have risen significantly. At the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision to hold rates was unanimous, though policymakers debated various options, including a possible hike. She added that the discussion centered on the fact that the ECB is "certainly moving away" from its baseline scenario.
2026-04-30
ECB to Hold Rates in April Amid Iran War Impact
The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its April meeting, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach to gauge the impact of the Iran war on inflation and economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel have signaled the bank will take its time before deciding on further tightening, with investors closely watching the press conference for any additional cues. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% in March, the highest since July 2024, driven by rising energy costs. Despite the cautious stance, markets are fully pricing in three ECB rate hikes in 2026, with the first potentially arriving as early as June.
2026-04-30