Thursday October 27 2016
US Jobless Claims Drop for 1st Time in 3 Weeks
DOL | Joana Ferreira | firstname.lastname@example.org
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 258 thousand in the week ended October 22nd, compared with the previous week's revised level of 261 thousand and above market expectations of 255 thousand. It was the first decline in three weeks and the 86th straight week of initial claims below 300 thousand, the longest streak since 1970.
The 4-week moving average was 253,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 251,750 to 252,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending October 15, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.
The continuing claims drawn by workers for more than a week (the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment) during the week ending October 15 was 2,039,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since June 24, 2000 when it was 2,033,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 2,057,000 to 2,054,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,051,250, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since July 1, 2000 when it was 2,036,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 2,058,250 to 2,057,500.
Thursday October 27 2016
US Durable Goods Orders Fall 0.1% in September
US Census Bureau | Joana Taborda | email@example.com
New orders for US manufactured durable goods declined 0.1 percent month-over-month in September of 2016, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August and compared to market expectations of a 0.1 percent increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent and excluding defense, new orders rose 0.7 percent. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircrafts, a proxy for business spending fell 1.2 percent, the biggest drop since February, following three months of gains.
Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $77.5 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $234.5 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged August decrease. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 2.3 percent to $82.1 billion.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down four consecutive months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,119.3 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Transportation equipment, also down four consecutive months, drove the decrease, $4.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $764.2 billion.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $384.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August increase. Machinery, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $66.0 billion.
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $1.0 billion or 1.5 percent to $68.2 billion. Shipments increased $1.5 billion or 2.2 percent to $71.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $3.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $692.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $170.4 billion.
Defense new orders for capital goods in September decreased $0.9 billion or 7.7 percent to $11.3 billion. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $10.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $138.5 billion. Inventories decreased less than $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $20.8 billion.
Wednesday October 26 2016
US New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise 3.1%
US Census Bureau | Joana Taborda | firstname.lastname@example.org
Sales of new single-family houses in the United States rose 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 in September of 2016, compared to market expectations of a 1 percent decline. Figures for the previous month were revised down by 34,000 to 575,000.
Sales in the Northeast recorded the biggest gain (33.3 percent to 32 thousand), followed by the Midwest (8.6 percent to 76 thousand) and the South (3.4 percent to 338 thousand) while sales in the West fell 4.5 percent to 147 thousand.
The median sales price of new houses sold rose to $313,500 from $293,800 in the previous month and $307,600 a year earlier. The average sales price also increased to $377,700 from $356,200 in August and $367,800 a year earlier.
The stock of new houses for sale fell 0.4 percent to 235 thousand. This represents a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate.
Year-on-year, new home sales jumped 29.8 percent.
Monday October 24 2016
US Factory Activity Growth at 12-Month High: Markit
Markit | Joana Taborda | email@example.com
The flash IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 53.2 in October of 2016 from 51.5 in September, beating market expectations of 51.5. It is the highest figure since October last year, boosted by stronger output and new business growth.
Survey respondents cited an accelerated pace of new business growth and, in some cases, efforts to boost production in anticipation of stronger client demand in the months ahead.
In line with the trend for output volumes, latest data highlighted that incoming new orders picked up at the fastest pace for 12 months. Anecdotal evidence suggested that new product launches and stronger domestic demand had resulted in greater sales volumes. Nonetheless, some firms continued to report delayed decision making among clients, linked to uncertainty ahead of the presidential election.
Meanwhile, new export orders increased only slightly in October, but this was an improvement on the fractional decline seen during the previous survey period. Manufacturers mainly cited strong competition and relatively subdued demand patterns across key global markets.
Higher levels of incoming new work resulted in a greater degree of backlog accumulation across the manufacturing sector during October. The latest rise in unfinished work was the largest for 12 months. Some firms commented on increased capacity pressures at their plants, in part reflecting subdued job hiring in recent months. Latest data signalled only a moderate rise in payroll numbers, and the rate of expansion was weaker than in September. The latest survey indicated a robust upturn in input buying among manufacturing firms, which was linked to projections of rising demand and associated efforts to boost inventories. Moreover, the increase in purchasing activity was the fastest since June 2015. This contributed to a rise in preproduction stocks for the first time in 11 months. At the same time, finished goods inventories stabilized in October, which ended a four-month period of decline.
Manufacturers indicated that cost pressures intensified in October, with the latest increase in input prices the fastest for almost two years. Anecdotal evidence cited greater raw material prices and rising transportation costs. Meanwhile, factory gate charges increased for the first time in three months and the rate of inflation was the strongest since November 2014.
Thursday October 20 2016
US Initial Jobless Claims at 5-Week High of 260K
DOL | Joana Taborda | firstname.lastname@example.org
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 260,000 in the week ended October 15th, above market expectations of 250,000 and reaching the highest in five weeks. Yet, it marks the 85th consecutive week initial claims are below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970 and signaling the labour market strength.
The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 to 247,000. The 4-week moving average which smooths out week-to-week volatility in the claims data rose by 2,250 to 251,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 249,250 to 249,500.
On an unadjusted basis, the biggest increases in initial claims were recorded in Kentucky (up by 5,621); California (up by 3,028); Michigan (up by 2,721); North Carolina (up by 2,520), one of the zones hit by Hurricane Matthew and New York (up by 2,272). In contrast, Pennsylvania (-4,164) and Missouri (-1,988) recorded the biggest declines in initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.5 percent for the week ending October 8, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 8 rose by 7,000 to 2,057,000. The previous week's level was revised up 4,000 from 2,046,000 to 2,050,000.
The 4-week moving average was 2,058,250, a decrease of 12,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since July 8, 2000 when it was 2,056,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 2,070,000 to 2,071,000.
Wednesday October 19 2016
US Housing Starts Fall for 2nd Month
U.S. Census Bureau | Joana Taborda | email@example.com
Housing starts in the United States tumbled 9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1047 thousand in September from August of 2016, below market expectations of 1175 thousand. It is the lowest figure since March of 2015, due to a fall in construction of multifamily homes. In contrast, building permits rose 6.3 percent to 1225 thousand, beating expectations of 1165 thousand.
Starts declined in the South (-5.3 percent to 532 thousand), the Midwest (-14.1 percent to 146 thousand) and the Northeast (-36 percent to 87 thousand) and were flat at 282 thousand in the West.
Housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment shrank 38.9 percent to 250 thousand while single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, rose 8.1 percent to 783 thousand. For the single family segment, biggest gains occured in the Northeast (20 percent to 60 thousand), followed by the South (12.1 percent to 426 thousand) and the Midwest (6.3 percent to 118 thousand) but fell in the West (-2.2 percent to 179 thousand).
Building permits reached the highest since November. Increases occured in the South (2.6 percent to 594 thousand), the West (15.8 percent to 316 thousand) and the Northeast (23.6 percent to 131 thousand) while permits fell 5.2 percent to 184 thousand in the Midwest. Multi-family permits rose 17.2 percent to 449 thousand and the single-family segment edged up 0.4 percent to 739 thousand.
August figures for housing starts were revised upwards to 1150 thousand from 1142 thousand, representing a 5.6 percent fall (-5.8 percent earlier reported). Building permits were also revised up to 1152 thousand from 1139 thousand, a 0.7 percent gain compared to intial estimates of a 0.4 percent fall.
Year-on-year, housing starts declined 11.9 percent in September while building permits increased 8.5 percent.
Tuesday October 18 2016
US Inflation Rate at Nearly 2-Year High in September
BLS | Joana Taborda | firstname.lastname@example.org
Consumer prices in the United States went up 1.5 percent year-on-year in September of 2016, higher than 1.1 percent in August and in line with market expectations. It is the highest inflation rate since October of 2014 boosted by robust gains in shelter and a smaller drop in energy prices while food cost fell for the first time in more than six years.
Year-on-year, prices of services less energy increased 3.2 percent, the same as in August: inflation was steady for shelter (3.4 percent) and eased for transportation services (3 percent from 3.1 percent) and medical care (4.8 percent from 5.1 percent).
Food prices fell 0.3 percent after being flat in August, marking the first decline since February of 2010. In contrast, energy cost fell at a much slower 2.9 percent (-9.2 percent in August)
Annual core inflation which excludes food and energy eased to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 2.3 percent.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in August and also in line with market expectations. Increases in the shelter (+0.4 percent) and gasoline (+5.8 percent) indexes registered main upward pressures: gasoline cost accounted for more than half of the all items increase and the shelter index posted the largest gain since May. The energy index increased 2.9 percent, its largest advance since April. In contrast, the index for food was unchanged for the third consecutive month, as the food at home index continued to decline (-0.1 percent).
The core index edged up 0.1 percent, slowing from a 0.3 percent rise in August. Along with shelter, prices for medical care, motor vehicle insurance, personal care, education, alcoholic beverages, airline fares, and tobacco all increased in September. In contrast, the indexes for communication, apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, and new vehicles declined.
Monday October 17 2016
US Industrial Production Edges Up 0.1% in September
Federal Reserve | Joana Taborda | email@example.com
Industrial output in the United States increased 0.1 percent month-over-month in September of 2016, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent fall in August and below market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Manufacturing and mining rebounded while utilities fell. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 1.8 percent for its first quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2015.
Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in September and was unchanged from its year-earlier level. Production of durables remained unchanged, the production of nondurables increased 0.5 percent, and the production of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 0.8 percent. Within durables, declines registered by primary metals, by machinery, and by aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment were offset by gains elsewhere. All of the major categories within nondurables posted increases; the largest gains, of about 1 1/2 percent, were recorded by printing and support and by petroleum and coal products.
The index for mining moved up 0.4 percent in September. Gains for oil and gas well drilling and servicing, for coal mining, and for nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying outweighed a drop in crude oil extraction. The output of mining increased at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the third quarter following six consecutive quarterly decreases.
The index for utilities declined 1.0 percent.
At 104.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in September was 1.0 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged up 0.1 percentage point in September to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2015) average.
Friday October 14 2016
US Budget Deficit Widens to 3.2% of the GDP in FY 2016
US Treasury | Joana Taborda | firstname.lastname@example.org
The US government posted a USD 33 billion budget surplus in September of 2016, a 63.7 percent fall from a USD 91 billion surplus in the same month a year earlier but above market expectations of a USD 25 billion surplus. For the 2016 fiscal year, the country's budget deficit widened to USD 587 billion or 3.2 percent of the GDP, the highest in three years.
In September of 2016, receipts totaled USD 357 billion, up 2 percent year-on-year as individual income taxes accounted for USD 160 billion, social security and other payroll taxes for USD 93 billion, corporate income taxes for USD 66 billion and other taxes and duties for the remaining USD 37 billion. Outlays totaled USD 323 billion, 18 percent higher than a year earlier as social security accounted for USD 77 billion, Medicare for USD 69 billion, defense for USD 60 billion and other outlays accounted for the remaining USD 134 billion.
Considering the 2016 fiscal year, revenues increased 1 percent to USD 3267 billion while outlays rose at a faster 5 percent to USD 3854 billion. Revenue growth was reduced by the retroactive extension of some expired individual and corporate tax deductions. In FY 2015, the country recorded a USD 439 billion gap, equivalent to 2.5 percent of the GDP.
Friday October 14 2016
US Consumer Sentiment at 13-Month Low
University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | email@example.com
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States fell to 87.9 in October of 2016 from 91.2 in September. It is the lowest figure since September last year and well below market expectations of 91.9, hurt by a fall in future expectations.
The barometer of future expectations declined to 76.6 from 82.7 in September and below market forecasts of 82.7. In contrast, the gauge of current economic conditions rose to 105.5 from 104.2 in September and better than estimates of 104.7.
Americans expect the inflation rate in the next year to be 2.4 percent, the same as in September and to be lower at 2.4 percent over the next 5 years (2.6 percent in September).