United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2030 Outlook

Markets Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Currency 85.94 85 85 81.56 81.59 79.43 79.44 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.50 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.5 4.5 4 [+]
Stock Market 17042.90 16875 16795 16802 16825 19664 21745 [+]
GDP Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
GDP 16800.00 17602 18300 17436 17948 22000 25000 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 4.60 2.5 3 2.8 3 3.1 3.1 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 2.2 1.8 2.31 2.32 2.47 2.72 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16010.40 16060 16145 16104 20648 20662 24414 [+]
Gross National Product 16180.70 16325 16338 16344 18567 19836 21985 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 45901 45904 46362 47021 48000 53000 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2594.50 2620 22630 2646 2639 2602 2594 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 45500 45900 52011 52750 52000 65000 [+]
Labour Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Unemployment Rate 6.10 6.1 6 5.9 5.5 5.6 5.7 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 142.00 300 300 247 225 220 220 [+]
Government Payrolls 8.00 -5.46 19.79 30 18.64 18.83 18.83 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 134.00 229 204 216 202 201 201 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 0.00 13.92 17.37 15.11 15.99 16.29 16.35 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 293.00 350 350 284 287 295 296 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2439.00 2328 2330 2258 2284 2449 2425 [+]
Adp Employment Change 213.00 199 219 221 212 222 211 [+]
Employed Persons 146368.00 146629 147068 147179 149328 160426 180415 [+]
Unemployed Persons 9591.00 9406 9355 9290 8990 8809 9001 [+]
Job Vacancies 4712.00 4736 4498 5241 5660 9120 4870 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.02 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2 2 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.66 12.06 11.82 11.34 12.08 12.14 [+]
Productivity 105.97 108 108 100 100 128 140 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.2 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.52 34.5 34.52 34.51 34.49 34.49 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 91.35 91.41 98.81 118 159 163 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 40010.00 52714 56853 50711 55452 55146 55192 [+]
Wages 10.29 10.27 10.32 10.3 10.32 11.5 12.5 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.60 19.7 19.82 19.8 20.29 21.29 22.12 [+]
Labour Costs 105.09 103 103 103 104 105 106 [+]
Population 317.30 317 320 321 322 332 351 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Prices Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 1.70 2.1 2 2.2 2.3 3 2.38 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.07 0.02 0.46 0.71 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.42 239 241 243 255 355 500 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.26 2.76 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 238.34 239 240 241 260 360 510 [+]
Gdp Deflator 108.23 109 109 110 111 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 111 112 112 115 125 141 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 2.15 2.27 2.18 1.84 4 3.58 [+]
Export Prices 132.40 132 132 132 136 138 142 [+]
Import Prices 138.80 138 137 138 142 144 148 [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 2.53 2.84 2.95 2.38 3.01 1.8 [+]
Money Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75 3 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 3989063.00 4228442 4380054 4452807 4832980 5486040 5537118 [+]
Money Supply M1 2834.80 2880 2955 3014 3220 3931 4767 [+]
Money Supply M2 11351.40 11498 11673 11834 12104 14021 23881 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4375964.00 4435253 4212502 4466063 4489122 1659860 1059860 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145176.00 146154 145347 144177 145819 145691 145713 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7772.55 7808 7903 7983 8181 9308 11212 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 14792.09 14853 14994 15178 15694 18971 24704 [+]
Trade Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Balance of Trade -40546.00 -43722 -43301 -43482 -97351 -132645 -208775 [+]
Exports 198023.00 197182 198114 199172 199114 199074 201130 [+]
Imports 238568.00 240903 241416 242654 296465 331719 409905 [+]
Current Account -98500.00 -104533 -104757 -105531 -104182 -103573 -103500 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.93 -2.25 -1.78 -1.65 -0.1 -0.05 [+]
External Debt -4782773.00 -4673251 -4395731 -4083002 -3573251 -1098601 -915501 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.51 97.97 98.91 98.85 96.54 94.21 95.21 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -117086.00 93669 17379 56201 35126 28101 23417 [+]
Capital Flows 57700.00 -22058 40147 25663 37669 -44140 38758 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -18600.00 -15248 -17248 -12450 -16335 -16493 -16493 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8537.00 8435 8821 8972 9137 12229 15299 [+]
Government Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -4.10 -3.5 -3.8 -3.7 -3 -1.5 -1.5 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 101 102 102 103 104 101 [+]
Government Budget Value -129000.00 -28130 -95996 -10961 -32974 -32912 -32912 [+]
Government Spending 2880.60 2861 2852 2845 2874 2898 2927 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 56.60 59 55.12 55.32 54.67 56 60 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.50 56.8 57.08 57.23 57.11 57.12 57.12 [+]
Services PMI 58.50 60 57.75 56.98 56.21 56.04 56.04 [+]
Industrial Production 4.12 5.4 4.94 5.1 4.4 4.61 4.43 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.33 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.14 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.62 3.81 4.23 4.4 3.89 4.03 3.81 [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.80 79.31 79.57 79.62 79.36 79.07 79.14 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.21 0.05 0 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.06 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -18.20 2.4 0.77 2.24 0.75 0.76 0.76 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.60 60 57.77 58.04 58 57.63 57.62 [+]
Factory Orders 10.50 4.04 5.16 5.41 4.57 4.66 4.66 [+]
New Orders 503238.00 502660 502379 501925 496191 498340 497077 [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.43 0.46 0.45 0.39 0.41 0.43 [+]
Changes in Inventories 93.40 65.49 64.98 65.12 81.16 79.94 65.95 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.64 0.58 0.49 0.61 0.62 0.62 [+]
Bankruptcies 30113.00 29270 28534 28093 29526 21000 23000 [+]
Corporate Profits 2097.00 2120 2161 1989 2240 1989 1885 [+]
Nfib Business Optimism Index 96.10 96.75 96.27 96.31 96 96.09 96.12 [+]
Ny Empire State Manufacturing Index 27.54 20.27 26.32 25.54 16.68 16.76 17.02 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.50 24.31 24.91 26.59 22.13 22.46 22.51 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.43 16.97 17.59 17.75 18.16 18.06 18.06 [+]
Car Registrations 729.90 639 551 645 701 851 901 [+]
Leading Economic Index 157.71 104 105 105 106 106 106 [+]
Consumer Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence 84.60 83 83.14 83.19 83.13 83.05 83.05 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.58 0.6 0.34 0.64 0.33 0.7 0.6 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.00 3.91 4.33 4.41 4.26 4.15 4.15 [+]
Consumer Spending 10912.60 11027 11065 11100 11386 11768 12055 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13021.20 12968 13096 13160 13456 14808 14154 [+]
Personal Spending 0.50 0.13 0.23 0.31 0.25 0.25 0.25 [+]
Personal Income 0.30 0.32 0.32 0.42 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 4.15 4.52 4.13 4.5 0.1 0.05 [+]
Consumer Credit 26.01 18.86 18.74 19.29 19.52 19.62 19.81 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.43 3.38 3.34 3.58 5.92 6 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 45.20 46.23 47.73 47.01 47.04 47.2 47.21 [+]
Redbook Index 4.30 3.54 3.54 4.37 4.27 4.25 4.26 [+]
Housing Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 0.10 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 [+]
Building Permits 998.00 1044 1026 1030 1051 1044 1044 [+]
Housing Starts 956.00 1050 1034 1038 1067 1047 1047 [+]
New Home Sales 504.00 461 487 480 508 510 510 [+]
Pending Home Sales -2.20 19.6 14.7 11.76 7.35 5.88 4.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5050.00 4902 4871 4915 4966 4967 4967 [+]
Construction Spending -0.80 -0.14 -0.56 -0.08 -0.5 -0.51 -0.51 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 59.00 54 52.23 52.87 53.53 53.07 53.09 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.33 4.08 4.1 4.2 4.4 6 6 [+]
Mortgage Applications -0.20 4.69 -2.82 0.45 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Taxes Last Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 35 35 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 33 33 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23 23 23 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 10 10 10 10 11 11 [+]






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This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 10/2/2014