United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 98.36 98.19 98.23 98.74 98.14 96.18 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.93 2.2 2.5 4.5 4 4.1 [+]
Stock Market 17776.12 16794 16804 18873 13282 11281 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 18500 18500 22000 25000 38469 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 2.81 3.13 3.26 3.25 3.25 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 2.68 2.56 2.69 2.69 2.69 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16293.70 16357 16385 19357 24286 29184 [+]
Gross National Product 16454.70 16492 16556 17451 18957 21366 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46451 46584 48619 50675 52046 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2672.80 2699 2713 3202 3702 4236 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 51996 52114 54547 56854 58386 [+]
Labour Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.4 5.34 5.44 5.48 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 295.00 324 292 414 393 284 [+]
Government Payrolls 7.00 18.24 -2.86 7.17 7.17 7.17 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 288.00 312 319 304 303 303 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 8.00 23.61 15.25 32.14 32.49 32.49 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 282.00 283 287 286 286 286 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2416.00 2269 2317 2367 2562 2950 [+]
Adp Employment Change 189.00 251 267 235 215 219 [+]
Employed Persons 148297.00 148257 149087 160426 180415 227009 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8705.00 9150 8700 8809 9352 9501 [+]
Job Vacancies 5053.00 4566 4731 2871 3024 4018 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.78 1.7 1.65 1.5 1.41 1.41 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.90 11.97 11.65 9.1 8.1 8.91 [+]
Productivity 106.40 106 106 103 96.89 91.12 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.62 34.67 34.61 34.62 34.62 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.79 62.79 66.7 66.9 62.78 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 50579.00 31416 21732 37621 37668 37668 [+]
Wages 10.54 10.45 10.39 11.5 15.39 18.45 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.70 19.69 19.72 23.62 25.69 27.69 [+]
Labour Costs 104.91 105 105 107 110 113 [+]
Population 318.86 319 320 333 354 393 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Job Offers 4998.00 5204 5404 8183 4362 -34151 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 12 13 14 [+]
Wage Growth 4.92 4.84 4.92 5.47 5.52 5.52 [+]
Prices Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate 0.00 -0.24 -0.24 1.94 3.55 3.31 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 -0.44 -0.38 0.46 0.3 0.71 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 235.18 234 236 259 301 385 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.82 1.82 2.26 2.76 1.59 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 240.24 240 241 274 295 331 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.63 108 109 125 155 179 [+]
Producer Prices 109.50 108 107 107 102 91.7 [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.60 0.82 0.08 2.51 2.56 2.56 [+]
Export Prices 125.80 126 125 140 135 124 [+]
Import Prices 126.70 128 131 131 131 131 [+]
Food Inflation 3.00 3 3.23 2.6 3.43 3.16 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.19 108 109 115 121 127 [+]
Pce Price Index 108.48 109 109 120 130 150 [+]
Money Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.5 0.5 3 4.5 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 3840341.00 4513418 4513418 5486040 5537118 3392564 [+]
Money Supply M1 2988.20 3193 3193 3931 4767 7450 [+]
Money Supply M2 11820.30 11820 11820 14021 23881 14207 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4453211.00 4472555 4445974 1659860 1059860 4502507 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124717.00 126660 122885 128546 127955 127956 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8041.52 8083 8188 9661 11969 15641 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15365.47 15261 15441 19289 25643 36220 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -55083.00 -306 -3664 7689 9778 9860 [+]
Trade Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -41752.00 -42255 -42583 -32429 -12167 7812 [+]
Exports 189410.00 195864 195820 214808 254820 294817 [+]
Imports 231162.00 238119 238403 247237 266986 287006 [+]
Current Account -113451.00 -110014 -112306 -109084 -109252 -109242 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 [+]
External Debt -6157895.00 -5883102 -5864844 -1098601 -915501 -6292940 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.12 97.41 97.41 94.21 95.21 97.17 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 42670.00 42379 40713 40846 40846 40846 [+]
Capital Flows 88312.00 26935 26935 -44140 38758 -10792 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -27171.00 38004 39061 34176 34177 34177 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9226.00 9593 9811 12229 19556 22348 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6212971.00 5819085 5321846 4086872 4083009 4083009 [+]
Government Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -2.31 -2.3 -1.2 -1.19 -1.19 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 103 103 104 101 96.8 [+]
Government Budget Value -192327.00 -99261 -38399 -75374 -75374 -75374 [+]
Government Spending 2897.90 2909 2914 2904 2897 2895 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 51.50 55.58 55.58 56 60 58.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.70 55.79 56 55.52 55.52 55.52 [+]
Services PMI 58.60 58.6 55.61 56.02 56.02 56.02 [+]
Industrial Production 3.47 5.19 5.36 4.96 4.83 4.83 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.2 0.15 0.22 0.22 0.22 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.40 5.42 5.76 5.13 4.89 4.88 [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.94 79.79 79.79 79.15 79.35 79.77 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.11 0.3 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.40 -0.05 -0.44 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.90 57.77 58.97 57.95 57.94 57.94 [+]
Factory Orders -0.20 -1.57 -2.13 -1.86 -1.86 -1.86 [+]
New Orders 470005.00 483057 480754 481246 480845 480865 [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 -0.03 -0.1 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 [+]
Changes in Inventories 80.00 87.16 88.11 84.3 84.36 84.36 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 0.2 0.07 0.52 0.18 0.24 [+]
Bankruptcies 26983.00 28247 28247 21000 23000 26503 [+]
Corporate Profits 2140.30 2141 2141 2489 2885 3190 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 98.00 98.51 99.61 99.33 99.29 99.29 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.90 9.16 8.4 6.27 6.33 6.33 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.00 6.92 11.84 19.54 19.55 19.55 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.20 16.96 16.87 17.21 17.21 17.21 [+]
Car Registrations 524.00 645 645 851 901 962 [+]
Chicago Pmi 46.30 55.91 53.16 55.28 55.36 55.36 [+]
Composite Pmi 58.50 58.17 59.17 57.39 57.41 57.41 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 4.77 6.88 5.55 3.69 3.69 3.69 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -17.40 -5.41 -3.23 -1.19 -1.05 -1.05 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 0.18 -0.3 0.27 0.28 0.28 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -4258.00 -1690 674 20.28 20.28 20.28 [+]
Ism New York Index 63.10 57.44 57.69 60.83 60.83 60.83 [+]
Leading Economic Index 161.17 162 163 166 166 166 [+]
Mining Production 5.30 7.44 5.73 0.86 0.85 0.85 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 12.00 -45 69.82 -95.17 -95.17 -95.17 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 8.05 8.21 6.32 7.73 7.77 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 58.90 52.18 49.81 53.55 53.7 53.71 [+]
Consumer Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 93.00 91.2 99.28 97.43 97.4 97.4 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.45 0.45 0.7 0.6 0.68 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.70 3.61 3.4 3.28 3.29 3.29 [+]
Consumer Spending 11119.60 11208 11299 18209 22211 28199 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13260.00 13148 13148 18154 24154 26436 [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 5.27 5.46 5.32 5.32 5.32 [+]
Consumer Credit 11.60 16.01 16.38 15.97 15.97 15.97 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.34 3.34 5.92 5.5 3.33 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 49.10 47.42 49.13 48.11 48.11 48.11 [+]
Redbook Index 3.00 4.3 3.17 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Chain Store Sales 557.50 561 557 545 545 545 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.73 0.78 0.73 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 -0.48 -0.72 -0.61 -0.6 -0.6 [+]
Housing Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.30 0.58 0.58 0.63 0.63 0.63 [+]
Building Permits 1102.00 1071 1087 1251 1491 1391 [+]
Housing Starts 897.00 1010 1002 1213 1284 1484 [+]
New Home Sales 539.00 471 480 610 710 760 [+]
Pending Home Sales 12.00 8.47 11.05 6.24 6.26 6.26 [+]
Existing Home Sales 4880.00 5184 5257 5615 6116 6316 [+]
Construction Spending -0.10 0.2 0.13 0.05 0.05 0.05 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 53.00 54.11 60.14 60.31 60.46 61.46 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.89 4.2 4.2 6 6 3.91 [+]
Mortgage Applications 4.60 4.69 -2.82 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 172.94 172 179 182 187 185 [+]
Taxes Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 33 33 35 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23.69 23.86 25.16 25.24 25.24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.56 13.55 13.36 13.19 13.09 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 9.82 9.96 10.73 10.75 10.75 [+]