United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -48492.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 99.75 103 106 109 112 115 [+]
Stock Market 20661.30 20900 20600 20400 20000 16900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.41 2.48 2.51 2.53 2.56 2.95 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18036.65 19200 19200 19200 19200 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16804.10 16900 17000 17080 17270 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16897.40 16983 17068 17154 17240 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2801.30 2808 2813 2817 2822 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51638.10 52400 52400 52400 52800 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52704.20 53060 53060 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 160.10 167 172 169 170 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 784.90 788 785 778 766 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2181.00 2159 2149 2142 2132 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 271.60 196 196 325 208 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2402.20 2423 2439 2452 2463 2541 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12875.60 13100 13100 13180 13600 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 565.90 572 579 576 576 556 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 293.90 264 264 279 271 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 235.00 180 145 165 160 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 227.00 206 211 211 211 211 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 8.00 11 10 12.92 13 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 28.00 8 5 8.81 10 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 241.00 238 239 239 239 239 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2030.00 2026 1984 1969 1964 1962 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 298.00 273 269 270 164 150 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 152528.00 152598 152985 153309 153594 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7528.00 7510 7461 7419 7388 7286 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.41 34.42 34.43 34.43 34.43 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.00 62.99 62.95 62.95 62.95 62.95 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.13 1.11 1.06 1.28 0.97 0.56 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.90 9.88 9.75 9.66 9.58 9.32 percent [+]
Productivity 107.40 106 106 108 108 111 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 111.21 112 112 112 113 117 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5582.00 5154 5231 5262 5288 5363 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5626.00 5579 5591 5593 5593 5589 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 36957.00 40592 40069 41134 40801 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.86 21.95 22.25 22.45 22.72 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.65 20.85 21.11 21.36 21.61 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.47 4.43 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.6 0.53 0.55 0.54 0.54 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.30 1.1 0.6 0.7 1 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 322 323 323 324 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3985 3956 3950 3968 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1672 1633 1641 1640 1640 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1391 1380 1373 1369 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27554.00 27555 27580 27578 27578 27578 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 125031.00 125166 125584 125910 126177 127309 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.00 60.02 60.14 60.22 60.28 60.47 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 244.46 245 246 247 248 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 251.30 252 253 255 256 273 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 112.21 113 113 114 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.20 112 112 113 114 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.90 122 123 123 123 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 122.60 123 123 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.00 0.2 0.5 1 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.08 113 113 113 117 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 112.41 113 113 114 114 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 199.15 198 197 197 197 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.16 1.05 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3746400.00 3771736 3831040 3844316 3849534 3850906 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3374.00 3390 3442 3491 3540 4081 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13313.10 13362 13523 13694 13867 15927 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119183.00 119552 119818 119837 119835 119833 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4426660.00 4433223 4443819 4445760 4446055 4446120 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16204500.00 16231156 16308628 16334610 16343179 16347406 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2096.03 2094 2091 2088 2085 2070 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 198.49 200 200 200 201 201 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -6974.00 -31613 -25937 -26534 -26506 -26521 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -48492.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Exports 192094.00 194124 195802 190000 196994 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 240586.00 228500 229000 230000 231000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -112382.00 -109000 -109000 -111000 -112000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7781138.00 -7699252 -7561063 -7550645 -7620652 -7616720 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.82 100 100 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 110442.00 -54447 -31085 -13552 -7644 -3505 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 41776.00 39069 40976 40768 40216 40371 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 6324.00 18971 17839 17481 17598 17620 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8783.00 8880 8930 8930 9180 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.7 4.79 4.61 4.96 5.03 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6193106.00 6301739 6305803 6307168 6306514 6306418 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -192044.00 4036 -52655 -62321 -68009 -72529 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2908.90 2911 2909 2911 2912 2918 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 171713.00 276933 265542 268828 268743 268184 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19959594.00 20043995 20271384 20486049 20698632 23067989 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 363757.00 310135 316783 321940 324025 324547 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 36.02 34.42 32.82 31.22 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 12122 12168 12201 12218 12229 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 57.70 57 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 57 57.3 57.5 57.1 57.1 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.20 54.6 54.7 53.8 53 53 [+]
Services PMI 53.80 53.4 53.6 52.4 52.7 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 54.10 53.5 53.8 53.8 52 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.30 0.4 1.5 2 3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.20 0.8 1.8 2.1 2 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.40 75.9 75.8 75.9 76 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 1.80 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 1.50 0.03 0.15 0.28 0.28 0.3 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.20 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.94 0.48 0.33 0.29 0.27 percent [+]
New Orders 470202.00 469535 471370 472053 472301 472444 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.20 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 46.20 69.14 69.32 63.35 70.07 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.20 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24114.00 23742 23358 23304 23112 23214 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1575.40 1584 1589 1598 1606 1700 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 105.30 105 106 101 95 97 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 16.40 15 12 9 8 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 51.30 54.84 53.75 54.38 54.32 54.28 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 24.50 16 15 14.3 14 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.34 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 32.80 24 16 12 9 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 12 10 6 4 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 57.40 54.5 54.7 55 55.93 55.93 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.58 18.5 19 15 14 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.42 3.89 3.92 3.86 3.61 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 553.65 596 585 563 563 564 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 4.95 1.4 1.5 1 -0.5 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -53.00 -34.87 -24.89 -24.54 -24.53 -24.53 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2811.00 -364 25.32 25.32 25.32 25.32 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 180.69 182 183 185 186 195 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6874.00 6300 6320 6400 6470 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 1.80 1.47 2.04 2.2 2 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.61 5.66 5.61 5.66 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.60 95.5 95.3 95 92 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.34 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.70 3.1 3 3.1 5.96 5.97 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 0.34 0.1 0.2 0.32 0.32 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11655.00 11747 11825 11903 11978 12633 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14345.40 14408 14519 14629 14740 16056 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.20 0.1 0.1 0.31 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.6 0.32 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 5.55 5.51 5.52 5.52 5.52 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 8.79 16.83 17.28 17.35 17.38 17.39 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9130.82 9152 9229 9300 9366 9932 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.75 3.75 4 3.67 4.25 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 55.30 55.3 52.62 51.48 51 50.64 [+]
Redbook Index 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.40 79.3 79.5 79.5 80 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 3129.00 4826 4950 4872 4887 4885 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Building Permits 1213.00 1152 1178 1150 1141 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1288.00 1210 1230 1190 1160 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 555.00 520 510 530 570 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 0.40 0.59 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5480.00 5000 4800 5000 5300 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -1.00 0.8 0.9 2 1.9 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.00 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.36 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 71.00 65 59 58 56 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.46 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -2.70 -0.02 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.70 63.42 63.15 63.47 63.58 63.45 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 192.61 195 193 194 194 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 35 35 35 32 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 8.55 8.55 8.55 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 3/22/2017