United States | Economic Forecasts | 2013-2015 Outlook

Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Markets Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Stock Market 16514.37 Apr-14 16488 May-14 16552 16660 16706 16706 16682 19664 21745 [+]
Currency 79.89 Apr-14 80.03 May-14 79.95 78.58 85 79.47 90 78.93 78.94 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.73 Apr-14 2.73 May-14 2.76 2.83 3 2.85 4 3.78 3.98 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
GDP Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
GDP Growth Rate 2.60 Dec-13 3.6 Jun-14 3.6 2.9 3 3.01 3 3.1 3.1 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 Dec-13 3.2 Jun-14 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.28 3 2.22 2.22 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 15942.30 Nov-13 16185 Jun-14 16185 16309 16413 16505 17372 20525 22344 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2511.20 Nov-13 2581 Jun-14 2581 2592 2000 2600 2173 2549 2546 [+]
Gross National Product 16188.90 Nov-13 16403 Jun-14 16403 16490 16533 16532 18527 23590 44878 [+]
GDP per capita 45336.00 Dec-12 46637 Jun-14 46220 46307 46383 46448 49463 55952 78615 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 45336.00 Dec-12 46637 Jun-14 46220 46307 46383 46448 49463 55952 78615 [+]
GDP 15684.80 Dec-12 16707 Jun-14 16591 16719 16842 16960 18346 22226 32502 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Initial Jobless Claims 304.00 Apr-14 303 Apr-14 314 310 350 312 351 317 318 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 192.00 Mar-14 158 Jun-14 143 146 300 159 300 147 147 [+]
Adp Employment Change 191.00 Mar-14 183 Jun-14 183 155 178 170 174 176 176 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings -0.04 Mar-14 0.27 Jun-14 0.27 0.2 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.18 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 Mar-14 34.32 Jun-14 34.32 34.3 34.31 34.32 34.38 34.36 34.36 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 34399.00 Mar-14 16706 Jun-14 16706 29545 30892 24825 36299 34568 34508 [+]
Employed Persons 145742.00 Mar-14 146163 Jun-14 145732 146211 146500 146881 165895 209292 412896 [+]
Government Payrolls 0.00 Mar-14 -17.16 Jun-14 -17.16 -22.52 -0.03 9.98 0.07 0.06 0.06 [+]
Job Vacancies 4008.00 Feb-14 3910 Jun-14 3971 4062 3589 4041 3468 3364 3295 [+]
Labour Costs 102.64 Nov-13 102 Jun-14 102 102 103 103 103 103 103 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 Mar-14 62.7 Jun-14 62.7 62.47 62.29 62.26 62.04 62.05 62.05 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30 Jan-14 1.32 Jun-14 1.32 0.95 1.13 1.45 2.15 4.79 5.76 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -1.00 Mar-14 14 Jun-14 14 14.63 17.3 13.45 13 14.55 14.73 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private 192.00 Mar-14 161 Jun-14 161 168 139 151 154 151 151 [+]
Productivity 106.92 Nov-13 108 Jun-14 108 108 108 109 123 154 304 [+]
Unemployed Persons 10486.00 Mar-14 10169 Jun-14 9897 9494 9214 9058 9149 9714 9812 [+]
Wages 10.31 Mar-14 10.37 Jun-14 10.31 10.29 10.34 10.32 10.34 10.34 10.34 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.51 Mar-14 19.53 Apr-14 19.56 19.71 19.84 19.81 20.16 21.64 24.28 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.50 Mar-14 13.23 Jun-14 13.23 12.6 12.12 11.99 11.91 7.49 8.02 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 Jan-13 66 Jun-14 66 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 Jan-13 66 Jun-14 66 66 66 65.97 66 66 67 [+]
Population 317.30 Dec-13 318 Jun-14 318 319 320 320 322 332 351 [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.70 Mar-14 6.3 Jun-14 6.3 6.1 6 5.8 6.7 6.2 6.3 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Prices Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 1.50 Mar-14 1.8 Jun-14 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.34 3 1.58 1.83 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 235.64 Mar-14 237 Jun-14 236 238 238 238 270 341 672 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 236.60 Mar-14 238 Jun-14 237 238 239 240 274 366 762 [+]
Export Prices 134.70 Mar-14 136 Jun-14 133 133 133 134 133 133 133 [+]
Gdp Deflator 107.20 Nov-13 108 Jun-14 108 108 109 109 110 113 113 [+]
Import Prices 140.40 Mar-14 142 Jun-14 139 140 139 139 139 139 139 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 Mar-14 0.35 Jun-14 0.35 0.3 0.2 0.14 0.5 0.46 0.71 [+]
Producer Prices 110.30 Mar-14 111 Jun-14 110 111 111 111 125 157 307 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.40 Mar-14 0.86 Jun-14 0.86 0.92 0.88 1 1.02 3.96 3.71 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.66 Mar-14 1.9 Jun-14 1.9 1.9 1.61 1.63 1.69 1.96 2.21 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Money Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.25 Mar-14 0.25 Jun-14 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.37 1 3 4 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4238125.00 Apr-14 4346232 Jun-14 4346232 4435253 4212502 4800442 3578196 1659860 1059860 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145205.00 Feb-14 145951 Jun-14 142449 144395 143721 142614 145344 144798 144862 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7520.84 Mar-14 7563 Jun-14 7449 7482 7519 7515 7555 7502 7500 [+]
Money Supply M0 3885850.00 Mar-14 4043997 Jun-14 4144235 4305293 4437959 4476036 4837449 5759262 11410213 [+]
Money Supply M1 2744.70 Mar-14 2828 Jun-14 2763 2827 2883 2918 3419 4404 8674 [+]
Money Supply M2 11160.80 Mar-14 11405 Jun-14 11291 11468 11621 11742 13652 18203 35818 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Trade Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Exports 190434.00 Feb-14 189912 Jun-14 194970 195487 195493 195287 216877 275693 543232 [+]
Imports 232734.00 Feb-14 239510 Jun-14 234372 235426 234404 233689 260307 331574 653355 [+]
Capital Flows 167748.00 Feb-14 33770 Jun-14 33770 37988 39497 32400 39337 70056 122430 [+]
Crude Oil Production 7939.00 Jan-14 [+]
External Debt -4577504.00 Dec-13 -4838018 Jun-14 -3662003 -2746502 -2197202 -1831002 -1373251 -1098601 -915501 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 68145.00 Nov-13 64733 Jun-14 64733 66848 17379 61514 17379 67554 67554 [+]
Net Long-term Tic Flows 85737.00 Feb-14 30286 Jun-14 27586 25346 22567 27450 17972 18916 18915 [+]
Terms of Trade 98.14 Nov-13 98.68 Jun-14 98.68 98.41 98.05 98.01 98.12 98.2 98.13 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 Dec-13 -2.12 Jun-14 -2.03 -1.93 -1.85 -1.78 -1.65 -0.82 -0.41 [+]
Current Account -81118.00 Nov-13 -77334 Jun-14 -77334 -78055 -79271 -81465 -88198 -83812 -84334 [+]
Balance of Trade -42300.00 Feb-14 -40089 Jun-14 -39402 -39938 -38912 -38402 -43430 -55880 -110122 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Government Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -4.10 Sep-13 -1.15 Jun-14 -1.53 -0.9 -4 0.09 -3.8 2.74 2.82 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 Dec-13 [+]
Government Budget Value -36893.00 Mar-14 -584 Jun-14 -584 13367 -19216 -85280 -19847 -19824 -19824 [+]
Government Spending 2868.50 Nov-13 2841 Jun-14 2841 2838 2831 2828 3226 4056 7963 [+]
Government Debt To GDP 101.60 Dec-12 105 Jun-14 104 105 105 105 106 109 110 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Labour Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Continuing Jobless Claims 2739.00 Apr-14 2732 Apr-14 2806 2755 2727 2754 2894 2844 2859 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Business Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Industrial Production 3.80 Mar-14 4.19 Jun-14 3.62 3.71 3.68 3.59 3.14 3.96 3.94 [+]
Business Confidence 53.70 Mar-14 54.25 Jun-14 55.85 55.88 54.79 54.63 54 97.68 171 [+]
Bankruptcies 33212.00 Dec-13 29954 Jun-14 29954 29551 29526 29946 32578 18056 9270 [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 Feb-14 0.62 Jun-14 0.62 0.64 0.55 0.55 0.46 0.49 0.49 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.21 Mar-14 79.28 Jun-14 79.16 79.3 79.56 79.44 79.04 79.03 79.03 [+]
Car Registrations 590.80 Dec-13 676 Jun-14 702 638 551 644 627 791 1561 [+]
Changes in Inventories 111.70 Nov-13 153 Jun-14 153 145 133 120 120 128 128 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.20 Mar-14 0.12 Apr-14 0.21 0.17 0.23 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.16 [+]
Corporate Profits 2173.70 Nov-13 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 2.17 Feb-14 0.05 Jun-14 0.05 0.6 -1.08 0.29 -0.97 -0.99 -0.99 [+]
Factory Orders 1.60 Feb-14 0.58 Jun-14 0.58 0.23 0.64 0.8 0.64 0.64 0.64 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.73 Mar-14 0.4 Jun-14 0.62 0.51 0.61 0.58 0.5 3.84 3.84 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.40 Apr-14 54.32 May-14 53.6 53.53 53.58 53.56 53.56 53.93 53.93 [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.80 Mar-14 2.3 Jun-14 2.3 2.2 2.19 2.19 2.41 3.81 3.98 [+]
New Orders 488832.00 Feb-14 486776 Jun-14 494655 494883 492780 490694 488112 490505 489968 [+]
Nfib Business Optimism Index 93.40 Mar-14 93.25 Jun-14 93.25 93.71 93.61 92.74 93.33 93.45 93.45 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.10 Mar-14 53.16 Jun-14 53.16 52.86 52.33 52.16 52.85 52.75 52.75 [+]
Ny Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.29 Apr-14 5.6 Jun-14 5.6 3.85 1.67 6.17 2.03 1.94 1.92 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 16.60 Apr-14 10.52 May-14 12.04 11.22 10.08 8.9 8.58 8.53 9.99 [+]
Services PMI 55.30 Mar-14 53.66 Jun-14 53.66 55.41 55.52 55.43 55.11 55.15 55.15 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.40 Mar-14 15.64 Jun-14 15.64 15.75 16.03 15.91 16.02 16.01 16.01 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.50 Feb-14 0.74 Jun-14 0.74 0.68 0.81 0.66 0.63 0.7 0.7 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Consumer Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence 82.60 Apr-14 81.53 Jun-14 81.53 80.38 80.52 80.22 80.51 145 253 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.14 Mar-14 0.46 Jun-14 0.38 0.16 0.23 0.47 0.23 3.83 3.53 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 Mar-14 3.25 Jun-14 3.33 3.43 3.38 3.35 3.62 6.61 19.78 [+]
Consumer Credit 16.50 Feb-14 13.28 Jun-14 13.28 13.44 18.56 13.04 18.67 18.65 18.65 [+]
Consumer Spending 10831.50 Nov-13 10948 Jun-14 10948 11005 11048 11080 12598 15919 31381 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 12706.20 Feb-14 12818 Jun-14 12814 12889 12995 13026 14904 19291 38100 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 48.00 Apr-14 44.24 Jun-14 44.24 43.67 44.65 43.95 44.79 44.74 44.74 [+]
Personal Income 0.33 Feb-14 0.17 Jun-14 0.17 0.2 0.3 0.24 0.83 0.83 0.3 [+]
Personal Savings 4.30 Feb-14 4 Jun-14 5.06 4.76 5.12 4.74 4.94 2.71 1.42 [+]
Personal Spending 0.26 Feb-14 0.42 Jun-14 0.42 0.25 0.37 0.41 0.36 0.36 0.36 [+]
Redbook Index 3.70 Apr-14 3.16 Apr-14 2.92 3.27 3.33 3.3 3.34 3.34 3.34 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.80 Mar-14 4.72 Jun-14 2.24 1.87 1.72 1.9 2.35 4.04 3.89 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Taxes Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 Jan-14 40 Jun-14 42 43 35 45 35 55 58 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 Jan-14 40 Jun-14 41 42 43 44 47 55 58 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 Jan-13 23 Jun-14 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 Jan-13 14 Jun-14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 Jan-13 10 Jun-14 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 Jan-14 0 Jun-14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Actual FORECAST QUARTERLY FORECAST LONG-TERM FORECAST
Housing Value Date Value Date Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 2015 2020 2030
Building Permits 990.00 Mar-14 1004 Jun-14 1004 1004 1029 1005 1002 979 968 [+]
Construction Spending 0.11 Feb-14 1.19 Jun-14 1.19 1.05 0.77 1.32 0.75 0.75 0.75 [+]
Existing Home Sales 4590.00 Mar-14 4649 Apr-14 4559 4454 4386 4292 4333 4383 4383 [+]
Housing Index 0.60 Feb-14 0.28 Mar-14 0.25 0.18 0.22 0.2 0.21 0.22 0.22 [+]
Housing Starts 946.00 Mar-14 959 Jun-14 959 980 1006 985 1011 998 998 [+]
Mortgage Applications -3.30 Apr-14 -0.28 Apr-14 4.69 -2.82 0.45 -4.15 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.49 Apr-14 4.5 Apr-14 4.92 4.81 4.75 4.71 4.28 4.12 4.22 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 47.00 Apr-14 51.34 Jun-14 51.34 49.91 49.25 48.41 47.79 48.87 48.82 [+]
New Home Sales 384.00 Mar-14 422 Apr-14 425 423 440 427 444 444 444 [+]
Pending Home Sales -10.50 Feb-14 -13.65 Jun-14 -19.6 -14.7 -11.76 -9.8 -7.35 -5.88 -4.9 [+]

Trading Economics forecasts are driven by our own analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. First, we model the past behaviour of a time series by using vast amounts of historical data. Then, we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account, our own analyst’s assessments and future expectations. While we work hard to make our predictions accurate, please note that past performance of our forecast model is not necessarily indicative of future results. Moreover, please take into account that because countries publish their data releases in different dates and sometimes with significant delays we may have to project past data which has already some time but was not yet released by official sources. If you have any question please email us at contact@tradingeconomics.com



RELATED NEWS

US New Home Sales Fall Sharply in March  
Sales of new single-family houses dropped 14.5 percent in March of 2014 to their lowest level in eight months. Sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, below the revised February rate of 449,000.
US Markit Manufacturing PMI Steady in April  
At 55.4 in April, the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI was down fractionally from 55.5 in March, but still well above the neutral 50.0 value. Sharper rates of output and new business growth boosted the Manufacturing PMI during April, while the main negative influence on the headline index was a rise in the suppliers’ delivery times component.
US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly  
In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 300,000 to 302,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
US Industrial Production Slows in March  
Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in March after having advanced 1.2 percent in February. Yet, manufacturing output rose for the second straight month.
US Housing Starts Rise Below Forecasts  
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000. This is 2.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 920,000, but down 5.9 percent year-on-year.
US Inflation Rate Up to 1.5% in March  
US annual consumer prices accelerated to 1.5 percent in March, boosted by higher shelter and food cost. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate edged up to 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in February.
US Retail Sales Beat Expectations in March  
Retail sales increased 1.1 percent over the previous month in March of 2014, up from a revised 0.7 percent rise in February. It is the biggest growth rate in 1-1/2 years.
US Consumer Sentiment Up to 9-Month High  
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index increased to a preliminary reading of 82.6 in April of 2014, up from March’s final 80.0. It is the highest level since July of 2013, as current conditions and expectations surged.
US Jobless Claims Down to Nearly 7-Year Low  
In the week ending April 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 300,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week's revised level. The last time initial claims were this low was May 12, 2007 when they were 297,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
US Unemployment Rate Steady at 6.7%  
In March of 2014, the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 10.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the jobless rate were down by 1.2 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively.
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LATEST NEWS

South Korean Economy Expands at a Fastest Pace  
In the first quarter of 2014, South Korea’s GDP accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to an annual 3.9 percent growth rate, driven by exports.
South Korea GDP Growth Beats Expectations in Q1  
South Korean GDP expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2014, the same rate recorded in the previous quarter and above market expectations.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Increases Interest Rate to 3.0%  
At its April 23rd, 2014 meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the benchmark interest rate for the second straight meeting by 25 bps to 3.0 percent, as inflationary pressures were increasing and were expected to continue doing so over the next two years.
US New Home Sales Fall Sharply in March  
Sales of new single-family houses dropped 14.5 percent in March of 2014 to their lowest level in eight months. Sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, below the revised February rate of 449,000.
US Markit Manufacturing PMI Steady in April  
At 55.4 in April, the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI was down fractionally from 55.5 in March, but still well above the neutral 50.0 value. Sharper rates of output and new business growth boosted the Manufacturing PMI during April, while the main negative influence on the headline index was a rise in the suppliers’ delivery times component.
Bank of Thailand Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged  
At its April 23rd, 2014 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee left the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.0 percent. Policymakers expect 2014 growth to be lower than previous assessed due to prolonged political unrest.
South Africa Inflation Rate Back to 6%  
South African annual consumer prices accelerated for the fourth straight month in March of 2014 to a six-month high 6 percent. On a monthly basis, prices advanced 1.3 percent, the fastest pace in five years.
Singapore Inflation Rate Edges Up in March  
Annual consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in March of 2014, up from a 0.4 percent increase in February, mainly due to a smaller fall in car prices. Contributions from all other major categories, except accommodation, were also slightly higher.
Australia Inflation Rate Accelerates Further in Q1  
Australian annual consumer prices advanced 2.9 percent in the first three months of 2014, up from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter, but below market forecasts. The rise was driven by seasonal increases in cost of healthcare, transport and school fees, and by a large hike in tobacco duties.
Mexico Unemployment Rate Up to 4.8% in March  
Mexican unadjusted jobless rate rose to 4.8 percent in March of 2014, up from 4.65 percent in February and 4.51 percent a year earlier. Upon seasonal adjustment, the unemployment rate rose to its highest in more than one year to 5.25 percent.
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This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 4/24/2014





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