United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 95.25 96 98 101 99.35 96.09 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.18 2.2 2.5 4.5 4 4.1 [+]
Stock Market 18285.74 17500 17000 20000 25000 30000 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16768.10 18500 17728 22000 25000 37802 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 2.81 3.13 1.07 1.07 1.07 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 3.07 3.1 2.71 2.7 2.7 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16304.80 16463 16573 19357 24286 29184 [+]
Gross National Product 16454.70 16654 16763 17257 26206 36410 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46584 46712 48619 50675 52046 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2656.20 2719 2713 3202 3702 4236 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 52263 52407 54547 56854 58386 [+]
Labour Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.5 5.4 6.5 6.1 6.55 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 223.00 324 292 185 393 284 [+]
Government Payrolls 10.00 18.24 -2.86 -6.83 -6.83 -6.83 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 213.00 312 319 194 194 194 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 1.00 23.61 15.25 6.44 6.59 6.59 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 274.00 258 260 262 262 262 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2211.00 2038 2317 2342 2543 2941 [+]
ADP Employment Change 169.00 251 267 172 171 171 [+]
Employed Persons 148523.00 148806 149246 160426 180415 227009 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8549.00 9150 8700 8809 9352 9501 [+]
Job Vacancies 4921.00 4966 4931 5871 6024 6018 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.60 1.65 1.65 1.5 1.41 1.64 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.60 11.61 11.15 9.1 8.1 8.91 [+]
Productivity 105.90 106 106 109 113 121 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.15 0.2 0.16 0.16 0.16 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.62 34.67 34.57 34.57 34.57 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.79 62.79 66.7 66.9 65.66 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 61582.00 31416 21732 48265 48250 48249 [+]
Wages 10.55 10.51 10.39 11.5 15.39 18.45 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.78 19.9 19.9 23.62 25.69 27.69 [+]
Labour Costs 106.21 106 106 107 110 113 [+]
Population 318.86 320 321 333 354 393 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 67 68 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 67 68 [+]
Job Offers 4994.00 5104 5304 6183 7362 6151 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 12 13 14 [+]
Wage Growth 3.84 4.06 4.22 5.37 5.47 5.47 [+]
Prices Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate -0.20 0.24 0.46 1.61 3.32 3.31 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.44 0.38 0.46 0.3 -0.18 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 235.98 237 238 261 304 390 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.82 1.82 2.26 2.76 1.67 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 241.40 242 243 274 295 331 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.61 108 109 125 155 179 [+]
Producer Prices 109.30 109 108 117 132 151 [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.30 -0.96 -0.49 2.2 2.31 2.31 [+]
Export Prices 125.10 125 124 140 135 124 [+]
Import Prices 124.80 125 126 126 126 126 [+]
Food Inflation 2.00 3 3.23 2.85 2.85 3.16 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.49 109 109 123 146 168 [+]
Pce Price Index 108.64 109 109 120 130 150 [+]
Money Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.5 0.5 3 4.5 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 4059338.00 4513418 4119809 5486040 5537118 4132277 [+]
Money Supply M1 2993.80 3193 3089 3931 4767 5986 [+]
Money Supply M2 11894.90 11820 12145 14021 23881 13237 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4439234.00 4436478 4430927 1659860 1059860 4429682 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119270.00 115140 113573 10118 131548 24363 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8120.05 8258 8372 8656 8657 8657 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15266.58 15382 15578 19061 25078 34999 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 9913.00 -3278 -1320 8019 9997 10075 [+]
Trade Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -51367.00 -54431 -54207 -32429 -35166 -37812 [+]
Exports 187837.00 184133 183948 214808 254820 294817 [+]
Imports 239205.00 238563 238155 247237 289986 332006 [+]
Current Account -113451.00 -110014 -112306 -109084 -109252 -109242 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.2 -2.4 -2 -1.8 -2 [+]
External Debt -6915258.00 -6083101 -5864843 -8098600 -7155000 -6998752 [+]
Terms of Trade 98.85 97.41 98.42 94.21 95.21 98.04 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 42670.00 42732 42751 48767 52767 62767 [+]
Capital Flows -100900.00 26935 26935 -44140 38758 -47668 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 17600.00 38004 39061 22747 22747 22747 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9238.00 9160 9026 12229 19556 22348 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6212971.00 601845 6179826 7086871 8083009 7083008 [+]
Government Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.5 -2.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.19 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 103 103 104 101 96.8 [+]
Government Budget Value 156714.00 21104 37925 19057 19057 19057 [+]
Government Spending 2891.80 2905 2917 2922 2923 2923 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Government Debt 18152560.00 18152560 18152560 18152560 18152560 18152560 [+]
Business Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 51.50 55.58 55.58 56 60 58.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 55.79 56 54.06 54.06 54.06 [+]
Services PMI 57.40 58.6 55.61 55.89 55.89 55.89 [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 5.19 5.36 2.79 2.9 2.89 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.2 0.15 0.22 0.47 0.72 [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.30 5.42 5.76 3.3 3.32 3.31 [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.22 79.79 79.79 78.76 78.71 78.7 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15 0.3 0.29 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 4.70 -0.05 -0.44 1.01 1.5 2.5 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.80 57.77 58.97 57.57 57.56 57.56 [+]
Factory Orders 2.10 -1.57 -2.13 -0.44 -0.44 -0.44 [+]
New Orders 477828.00 477829 473379 469146 467752 467820 [+]
Business Inventories 0.10 -0.03 -0.1 0.08 0.17 -0.02 [+]
Changes in Inventories 110.30 109 111 97.92 97.94 97.94 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.2 0.07 0.41 0.07 0.07 [+]
Bankruptcies 26130.00 28247 23476 21000 23000 25704 [+]
Corporate Profits 2140.30 2101 2101 2489 2885 3190 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 96.90 98.51 99.61 98.2 98.18 98.18 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.09 9.16 8.4 0.29 0.57 0.57 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 6.70 6.92 11.84 6.69 6.75 6.75 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.50 16.96 16.87 17.04 17.04 17.04 [+]
Car Registrations 526.10 645 652 851 901 962 [+]
Chicago Pmi 52.30 55.91 53.16 49.02 49.05 49.06 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.00 58.17 59.17 56.99 56.99 56.99 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.67 6.88 5.55 -0.89 -0.89 -0.89 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -16.00 -5.41 -3.23 -14.38 -14.1 -14.1 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 3.40 0.7 0.4 0.35 0.35 0.35 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.20 0.18 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2774.00 -1690 674 57.66 57.66 57.66 [+]
Ism New York Index 58.10 57.44 57.69 58.13 58.13 58.13 [+]
Leading Economic Index 161.17 163 164 166 166 166 [+]
Mining Production 1.30 1.37 1.06 0.68 0.68 0.68 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 92.00 -45 69.82 -100 -100 -100 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -3.00 8.05 8.21 1.02 -0.49 0.2 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 57.23 51.11 55.44 54.48 54.5 [+]
Consumer Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 88.60 98.2 99.28 98.85 98.84 98.84 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.45 0.45 0.7 0.6 0.72 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.90 3.61 3.4 1.49 1.52 1.52 [+]
Consumer Spending 11173.10 11249 11304 18209 22211 28199 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13317.40 13148 13518 18154 24154 26507 [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.05 0.03 0.22 0.22 0.22 [+]
Personal Income 0.00 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 5.38 5.43 5.42 5.42 5.42 [+]
Consumer Credit 20.50 16.01 16.38 16.69 16.69 16.69 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.34 3.4 5.92 5.5 3.29 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 49.70 47.42 49.13 50.9 50.9 50.9 [+]
Redbook Index 1.80 4.3 3.17 2.77 2.77 2.77 [+]
Chain Store Sales 580.50 567 568 556 556 556 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.73 0.78 0.73 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.10 -0.48 -0.72 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 [+]
Housing Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.70 0.57 0.56 0.65 0.65 0.65 [+]
Building Permits 1143.00 1071 1087 1251 1491 1391 [+]
Housing Starts 1135.00 1010 1002 1213 1284 1484 [+]
New Home Sales 481.00 471 480 610 710 760 [+]
Pending Home Sales 11.10 8.47 11.05 11.84 11.83 11.83 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5040.00 5184 5257 5615 6116 6316 [+]
Construction Spending -0.60 0.2 0.13 -0.41 -0.41 -0.41 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 54.00 54.11 60.14 56.34 56.43 61.46 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.04 4 4.2 6 6 4.82 [+]
Mortgage Applications -1.50 4.69 -2.82 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 173.67 178 180 192 197 205 [+]
Taxes Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 36 36 39.62 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23.55 23.58 25.16 25.24 25.24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.48 7.45 7.65 7.65 7.65 [+]