United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.9 1.8 1.9 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.10 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 0.75 1 1 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -40440.00 -41009 -40867 -40528 -40179 -35925 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 95.38 100 93.74 92.65 93.83 93.44 [+]
Stock Market 17852.00 17700 17100 16600 16200 22500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.87 1.81 1.86 1.95 2.04 2.66 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.9 1.8 1.9 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17419.00 18032 18142 18252 18252 20333 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16492.70 16696 16797 16901 17003 16680 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16631.70 16702 16732 16755 16777 16843 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2751.80 2776 2729 2717 2707 3099 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46499 46699 46898 46988 47961 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52221 52446 52670 52767 53752 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 193.40 187 183 188 182 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 743.00 754 753 751 745 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2179.40 2176 2176 2171 2161 2239 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 260.00 242 218 200 196 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2341.90 2380 2396 2408 2421 2527 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12447.10 12697 12824 12952 13082 15798 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.40 536 534 534 532 510 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.50 257 259 262 264 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.2 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 160.00 250 186 225 200 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 171.00 166 156 147 139 110 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -11.00 10.49 13.79 12.76 13.45 13.52 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 4.00 -9.05 14 9 8 -16.06 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 278.00 284 293 302 309 363 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2152.00 2187 2248 2310 2358 2780 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 156.00 146 131 119 108 58.11 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151004.00 151354 151489 151580 151616 153882 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7920.00 7944 7928 8079 8139 8597 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30 0.25 0.23 0.2 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.39 34.39 34.41 34.38 34.39 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.79 62.8 62.81 62.82 62.91 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.29 1.3 1.42 1.52 1.63 2.1 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 10.56 10.78 10.87 10.98 12.14 percent [+]
Productivity 105.86 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 109.67 110 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5729.00 5638 5457 5426 5369 4649 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5757.00 5857 5852 5793 5703 4444 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 65100.00 48754 55341 59041 61408 67881 Persons [+]
Wages 21.45 21.53 21.64 21.83 21.85 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.41 20.41 20.42 20.61 20.65 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.70 4.79 4.89 4.97 5.04 5.41 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.57 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.65 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -0.90 0.4 0.5 1 1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 323 324 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1750.00 1720 1696 1676 1660 1597 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4140.00 4069 4093 4085 4087 4087 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2600.00 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1620.00 1645 1645 1645 1645 1645 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27797.00 27756 27754 27745 27737 27613 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 123194.00 123373 123386 123386 123355 122374 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.79 59.83 59.87 59.9 60 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 238.89 240 241 242 243 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 246.57 247 249 250 251 263 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.49 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.48 111 111 111 111 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 109.70 110 109 110 110 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.00 0.34 0.76 1.13 1.44 2.84 percent [+]
Export Prices 118.80 119 119 119 119 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 118.00 119 119 118 118 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 1.5 2 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 109.91 112 113 110 110 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.66 111 112 112 112 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 195.49 198 198 196 196 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 0.75 1 1 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.67 1.1 1.33 0.87 0.99 2.41 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3872940.00 4002261 4108140 4216165 4326419 6304852 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3184.80 3218 3275 3316 3349 3418 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12652.20 12787 12976 13144 13294 14184 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119727.00 119922 119382 118803 118224 110388 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4438170.00 4425063 4397825 4369761 4346056 3991726 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15842300.00 15857337 15858684 15856153 15853553 15814427 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2047.49 2083 2134 2176 2212 2314 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 23628.00 -7261 5068 2997 5812 11224 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -40440.00 -41009 -40867 -40528 -40179 -35925 USD Million [+]
Exports 176618.00 175178 177877 173432 172864 187720 USD Million [+]
Imports 217061.00 213590 211679 210766 210121 246362 USD Million [+]
Current Account -125314.00 -125882 -125757 -126263 -128000 -145199 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.48 -2.65 -2.81 -2.85 -3.56 percent [+]
External Debt -7356784.00 -7230432 -7079773 -6926760 -6874745 -5986003 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.60 99.14 99.47 99.73 99.87 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -98327.00 -56559 -40636 -23257 -11704 22292 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 35494.00 34069 36038 35217 34701 35030 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 78084.00 28450 34941 30982 29754 24786 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8134 8133 8134 8134 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9129.00 9116 9099 9084 9069 7314 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6188828.00 5096033 4923719 4780971 4662727 4124074 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.6 4.6 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -2.58 -2.61 -2.65 -2.8 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 106452.00 -94927 -28869 -22698 -39918 -30289 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2878.90 2887 2893 2896 2901 2903 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 438432.00 219757 272510 286557 273282 254691 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19187387.00 19279065 19347708 19406335 19442082 19326598 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 331980.00 334515 327428 328510 327131 324970 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 15650.00 17650 17650 15650 15650 15650 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 50.80 51.2 52 52.1 53 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.70 55.05 55.1 54.91 54.8 54.42 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.50 51.4 52 53 53 53 [+]
Services PMI 51.20 55.5 56 53.43 54.1 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 50.80 50.97 53.13 53.94 54.49 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 0.4 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 -0.02 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.40 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.40 75.46 75.87 76.32 76.75 79.17 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00 -0.32 0.13 0.2 0.28 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.20 0.03 0.05 0 -0.01 0 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.80 0.39 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.23 percent [+]
New Orders 458377.00 453769 450877 448420 446111 419068 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.10 0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 60.90 45.91 43.84 39.17 37.63 31.82 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.09 0.16 0.24 0.3 0.38 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24797.00 25446 26103 27160 28341 44342 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1380.40 1430 1363 1344 1340 1327 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 93.60 94.02 94.45 94.81 95.13 97.11 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 57.00 54.84 55.67 55.43 55.54 55.75 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -9.02 1.5 2 4 5 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -13.90 -9.59 -8.21 -6.3 -2.1 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.10 0.12 0.3 0.25 0.11 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -1.80 -1.3 -0.5 1.5 2 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -1.00 5.13 3.31 2.14 1.88 1.96 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 50.40 51.63 51.86 52.43 52.9 53.95 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.42 18 19.1 17.6 18 21.4 Millions [+]
Car Production 3.96 4.02 4.09 4.15 4.21 4.79 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 574.50 627 628 639 648 686 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -4.23 0.03 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 2043.00 189 22.73 21.16 21.16 21.16 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 73.00 46.47 4.31 0.45 0.37 0.39 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 178.30 177 173 167 162 136 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.1 56.54 57.21 55.86 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6571.00 6639 6532 6315 6601 7145 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -13.40 -11.1 -8.21 -5.46 -3.45 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.78 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 74 75 75 75 75 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 17 17 17 17 17 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 95.80 95.58 93.87 92.8 91.33 87.42 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.30 0.35 0.28 0.36 0.34 0.35 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.00 3.22 3.42 3.63 3.82 4.39 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.80 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.28 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11383.20 12002 12502 11546 11595 12084 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13719.30 13856 13970 14084 14199 15977 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.19 0.26 0.67 0.25 0.2 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.40 5.45 5.5 5.54 5.59 6.08 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 29.67 16.68 15.35 12.8 11.66 7.69 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8813.53 8900 9002 9078 9135 9204 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.56 3.69 3.77 3.88 5.13 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 48.70 48.5 48.35 48.66 48.79 49.23 [+]
Redbook Index 0.40 0.89 1.53 1.88 2.05 2.28 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.57 0.55 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.10 80.21 80.11 80.49 80.42 83.19 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4380.00 6275 6239 6454 6542 6648 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Building Permits 1116.00 1131 1143 1153 1162 1250 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1172.00 1161 1171 1181 1190 1213 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 619.00 531 475 517 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.40 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.27 1.3 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5450.00 5437 5370 5357 5340 5104 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.70 0.5 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.33 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 58.00 57.91 57.56 57.12 56.71 52.78 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.85 4.9 5.1 3.96 4 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 2.30 0.45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.52 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 182.79 184 183 182 181 162 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 5/25/2016