Markets Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Currency 99.53 99.03 98.48 97.93 97.93
Stock Market (points) 6583.04 5992 5813 5638 5638
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.32 4.31 4.24 4.18 4.18

Overview Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.70 1.1 0.9 2 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.40 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -92.00 70 90 80 80
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.5
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -54.46 -70 -60 -68 -40
Current Account (USD Billion) -190.70 -220 -250 -270 -270
Services PMI (points) 51.10 50.4 50.6 50 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.10 51.5 51 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.30 51.3 50.7 50 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.70 51 54 50 48
Consumer Confidence (points) 53.30 52.5 52 54 55.9
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Building Permits (Thousand) 1386.00 1420 1360 1380 1380
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.7
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 124.30 127
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.40 -5.6

GDP Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 0.70 1.1 0.9 2 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24066.00 24223 24459 24499 24475
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24064.00 24226 24497 24497 24473
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4407.20 4464 4468 4487 4482
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 369.60 373 376 376 376
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 889.10 908 905 905 904
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 755.90 758 770 770 769
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2434.60 2451 2478 2478 2476
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2601.40 2653 2648 2648 2646
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17529.70 17634 17845 17845 17828
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 353.50 347 360 360 360
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 200.70 200 204 204 204
GDP (USD Billion) 29184.89 29856
GDP per Capita (USD) 66682.61 68216
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 75491.61 77228
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.10 2.3

Labour Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.40 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) -92.00 70 90 80 80
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) -86.00 80 85 80 80
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 210.00 240 220 200 180
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1819.00 1870 1890 1900 1900
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 62.00 85 75 90 70
Employed Persons (Thousand) 162912.00 163200 162800 162500 162500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7571.00 7450 7560 7640 7640
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.3
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.00 62.2 62.3 62.4 62.4
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.11 1.25 1.2 1.2 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.50 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6
Productivity (points) 119.64 119 117 115 113
Labour Costs (points) 122.55 127 126 127 127
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6649.00 6950 6890 6800 6800
Job Offers (Thousand) 6882.00 6850 6700 6650 6650
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 48307.00 85000 98000 73000 73000
Wages (USD/Hour) 32.03 32.56 32.63 32.88 33.09
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 29.77 30.15 30.21 30.48 30.75
Wage Growth (%) 4.60 4 3.4 3.3 3.3
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.80 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.90 8.1 8 8 8
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 134341.00 133200 133000 133900 133900
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28478.00 27900 27500 27600 27600
Population (Million) 342.28 344

Prices Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 326.79 334 335 333 336
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.50 2.8 2.9 3 2.8
Core Consumer Prices (points) 333.51 337 340 342 343
GDP Deflator (points) 130.65 133 133 134 134
Producer Prices (points) 153.23 153 154 155 157
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.40 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.6
Export Prices (points) 158.00 150 150 149 149
Import Prices (points) 144.00 143 143 144 147
Food Inflation (%) 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 327.46 329 330 331 333
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 3.90 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.6
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.70 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
Import Prices YoY (%) 1.30 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.10 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.6
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.80 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.9
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 353.74 360 361 361 363
CPI Transportation (points) 269.61 271 272 273 274

Money Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.5
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 22667.30 23190 22870 22650 22650
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6657161.00 6510000 6530000 6600000 6600000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 3.53 3.53 3.28 3.28 3.28
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.00 136

Trade Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -54.46 -70 -60 -68 -40
Current Account (USD Billion) -190.70 -220 -250 -270 -270
Imports (USD Billion) 356.60 330 300 328 310
Exports (USD Billion) 302.15 260 240 260 270
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13655.00 13650 13470 13500 13400
Tourist Arrivals 6048545.00 5490200 5521000 5580000 5580000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.7

Business Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Services PMI (points) 51.10 50.4 50.6 50 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.10 51.5 51 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.30 51.3 50.7 50 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.70 51 54 50 48
Composite PMI (points) 51.40 50.6 50.5 51 51
Industrial Production (%) 1.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.30 1 1.3 1 1
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.30 76.7 77 77.2 77.1
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.00 1.8 1.1 1.7 1.7
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.40 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.50 0.9 1 1.3 1.3
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.40 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.3
Factory Orders (%) 0.10 1 0.3 1.4 1.4
Business Inventories (%) -0.10 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.50 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 24737.00 25200 25100 25400 25400
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3411.70 3150 3100 2700 2700
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 98.80 101 102 106 101
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 18.10 3 7 8 8
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -0.20 -10 -9 -8 -8
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.11 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 0.00 -4 -1 2 2
Chicago PMI (points) 52.80 50 45 49 49
Car Registrations (Thousand) 200.00 200 220 180 180
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.80 14.9 14.7 15 15
Car Production (Million Units) 10.23 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 11.00 -3 -1 4 4

Consumer Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Consumer Confidence (points) 53.30 52.5 52 54 55.9
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.60 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.50 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.70 2.5 2 2.5 2.5
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16667.00 16758 16884 16967 16950
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 23474.90 21600 21500 22100 22100
Personal Spending (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Personal Income (%) 0.40 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 4.50 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 8.05 7 5 9 9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 47.50 52 50 54 54
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.96 1.08 0.92 0.77 0.77

Housing Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Building Permits (Thousand) 1386.00 1420 1360 1380 1380
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1487.00 1380 1290 1400 1400
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 587.00 650 620 610 610
Pending Home Sales (%) -0.80 2.3 2 0.8 0.8
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4090.00 3800 3900 3700 3700
Construction Spending (%) -0.30 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 38.00 48 52 51 51
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.57 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 1.20 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 336.64 348 343 343 343

Energy Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Crude Oil Rigs 409.00 430 435 440 440

Government Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 124.30 127
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.40 -5.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 39.70 41.4