United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20 1.9 2 1.9 1.7 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.60 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 1 1 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -42601.00 -39400 -38500 -38000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 106 106 106 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Currency 101.14 100 105 110 115 100 [+]
Stock Market 19635.99 18700 18500 18300 18100 15100 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.39 2.31 2.34 2.36 2.38 2.75 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20 1.9 2 1.9 1.7 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.60 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17947.00 18400 18900 18900 18900 20243 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16712.50 16850 16900 17000 17080 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16757.60 16884 16972 17063 17156 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2772.40 2753 2742 2734 2727 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51486.00 52000 52400 52400 52400 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52549.01 52930 53060 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 162.10 162 159 158 150 157 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 779.00 789 788 785 778 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2171.70 2168 2159 2149 2142 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 258.30 200 196 196 325 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2381.00 2410 2423 2439 2452 2541 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12698.00 13000 13100 13100 13180 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 561.10 572 572 579 576 556 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 283.90 262 264 264 279 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 178.00 180 190 170 165 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 156.00 150 139 134 129 110 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 22.00 12 11 10 13.62 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -4.00 9 8 5 -13.66 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 258.00 261 271 281 290 351 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2005.00 2036 2093 2158 2225 2690 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 216.00 177 164 146 128 61.23 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 152085.00 152189 152378 152493 152548 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7400.00 7397 7223 7121 7097 8199 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings -0.10 0.34 0.29 0.24 0.21 0.2 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.42 34.4 34.4 34.41 34.43 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.71 62.73 62.74 62.74 62.82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.16 1.17 1.16 1.17 1.28 1.87 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40 10.41 10.51 10.61 10.74 11.9 percent [+]
Productivity 106.90 106 106 106 107 107 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.70 111 112 112 112 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5445.00 5355 5334 5286 5235 4714 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5534.00 5454 5338 5241 5155 4452 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 26936.00 36338 44822 48563 51863 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.72 21.83 21.85 21.87 22.08 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.32 4.43 4.54 4.66 4.76 5.33 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.60 20.61 20.65 20.85 21 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.52 0.57 0.55 0.57 0.64 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.50 -1.3 -1.1 -0.6 0.7 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 324 325 325 326 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 4033 3985 3956 3950 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1826 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2710.00 2751 2729 2741 2734 2736 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1675 1667 1671 1669 1670 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27727.00 27663 27645 27638 27630 27526 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 124193.00 124361 124417 124434 124414 123606 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.73 59.73 59.74 59.75 59.77 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 241.86 243 244 245 246 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 248.98 250 251 252 253 261 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.64 112 112 113 113 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.60 111 111 111 112 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.80 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.70 121 121 120 120 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 121.30 122 121 121 121 117 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.40 -0.5 0.2 0.5 1 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 111.39 112 112 112 113 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.89 112 113 113 113 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 196.19 197 197 196 196 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.75 1 1 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 1 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3571983.00 3817112 3899475 3982897 4067433 5291241 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3340.50 3376 3427 3465 3493 3554 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13137.50 13273 13465 13635 13786 14686 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 120142.00 119714 118850 118206 117642 111054 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4419790.00 4402407 4379998 4355622 4329734 4040255 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16059000.00 16070069 16075024 16072614 16070058 16036653 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2094.47 2112 2140 2162 2180 2186 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.12 199 199 199 199 200 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -76586.00 -26932 -27934 -18296 -14826 7420 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Balance of Trade -42601.00 -39400 -38500 -38000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Exports 186361.00 189000 186000 186000 190000 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 228962.00 228000 229000 229000 230000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -119885.00 -110000 -109000 -109000 -111000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -8042807.00 -7852593 -7831766 -7657847 -7548536 -6813482 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.06 99.9 100 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -152896.00 -118850 -86177 -65617 -45289 19435 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 39294.00 37531 37078 37633 37315 33221 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -26213.00 31035 18273 23884 23422 24127 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8134 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8744.00 8696 8683 8668 8653 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.96 4.97 4.98 4.61 5.03 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5978189.00 4797102 4475399 4335128 4282711 4185517 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 106 106 106 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -44192.00 -39894 -48464 -37612 -41304 -30884 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2902.70 2906 2907 2903 2902 2866 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 221692.00 292518 264881 264086 261207 244791 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19805715.00 19968544 20225259 20406618 20546514 20827304 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 265884.00 315312 306323 307716 308407 308479 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 9327.00 9955 9843 9776 9710 8899 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Business Confidence 53.20 52.1 53 53.1 53.5 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.20 55 57 57.3 57.5 54.56 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.10 53.9 53 54 53.67 53 [+]
Services PMI 54.60 52 53.1 53.1 53.2 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 54.90 52.6 53.5 53.8 53.8 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.90 0.3 0.4 1.5 2 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.20 0.3 0.4 1.8 2.1 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.30 76 75.9 75.8 75.9 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 4.80 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 5.20 0.19 0.44 0.45 0.28 0.33 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 1.00 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.80 0.44 0.33 0.28 0.27 0.25 percent [+]
New Orders 455471.00 454996 453621 451797 449788 426266 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 2.70 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.10 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 7.60 63.32 69.14 69.32 30.76 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.40 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24457.00 24501 24803 25282 26461 40882 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1589.80 1561 1573 1575 1574 1540 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 94.90 95.06 95.33 95.6 95.82 97.15 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 52.50 53.49 53.48 54.32 54.92 55.53 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.50 4 5 4 6.28 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 10.20 1.6 1.4 2 2.1 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.08 0.25 0.11 0.14 0.29 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 7.60 1.5 2 3 2 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 4.00 2.18 2.88 2.56 2.36 1.82 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 57.60 52.3 53 55.62 53.5 54.1 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.87 17.6 18 18 18.5 21.4 Million [+]
Car Production 3.75 3.85 4 4 4.08 4.1 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 567.34 606 623 629 640 683 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.39 1 1.4 1.5 1 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 3425.00 337 27.34 13.28 13.22 13.22 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -42.00 -49.02 -6.75 1.07 1.42 1.38 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 179.32 180 182 183 185 193 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6382.00 6520 6300 6320 6400 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -7.00 -5.79 -3.52 -2.13 -1.22 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.66 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.80 91.6 91.3 91.6 90.5 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.39 0.42 0.2 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 3.7 3.1 3 3.1 4.42 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.80 0.38 0.34 0.1 0.2 0.35 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11563.50 11638 11724 11794 11864 12523 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14107.20 14229 14348 14467 14588 16202 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.26 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.60 0.8 0.42 0.31 0.36 0.36 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.70 5.67 5.71 5.75 5.79 6.17 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 16.02 16.37 14.89 13.14 11.97 7.93 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9106.39 9177 9265 9330 9379 9445 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.56 3.75 4 3.86 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 54.80 51.6 52.54 51.96 51.39 49.62 [+]
Redbook Index 0.70 1.36 1.64 1.9 2.05 2.22 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.57 0.6 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.40 79.3 79.3 79.5 79.5 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4099.00 5634 5988 6269 6412 6600 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Building Permits 1260.00 1141 1152 1178 1150 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1323.00 1170 1210 1230 1190 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 563.00 510 520 510 530 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.80 1.76 1.59 1.45 1.42 1.33 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5600.00 4900 5000 4800 5000 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.50 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.60 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.33 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 63.00 60 60 59 58 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.27 4.28 4.32 4.37 4.41 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -0.70 0.66 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.44 63.43 63.43 63.43 63.43 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 191.78 191 191 193 194 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 39 39 39 38.9 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 16.20 21.3 21.3 21.3 16.2 16.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.55 7.65 7.65 7.65 8.55 8.55 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 12/8/2016