United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 95.38 95 90 94.9 95.5 96.19 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.12 2 2.2 4.5 4 2.1 [+]
Stock Market 18203.37 18000 17500 20000 25000 30000 [+]
GDP Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 17494 18500 22000 25000 38469 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 2.81 3.13 3.26 3.25 3.25 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 2.68 2.56 2.69 2.69 2.69 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16293.70 16357 16385 16357 16286 16184 [+]
Gross National Product 16399.30 16492 16556 17451 18957 21366 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46451 46584 48619 50675 52046 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2672.70 2699 2713 3202 3702 2736 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 51996 52114 54547 56854 58386 [+]
Labour Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.70 5.6 5.5 5.34 5.44 5.48 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 257.00 350 331 321 327 336 [+]
Government Payrolls -10.00 15.09 -6.54 3.74 3.74 3.74 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 267.00 329 335 309 309 309 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 22.00 31.29 23.98 29.61 29.51 29.51 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 313.00 282 282 278 304 280 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2401.00 2267 2226 2365 2561 2950 [+]
Adp Employment Change 212.00 251 267 235 215 219 [+]
Employed Persons 148201.00 148137 148979 160426 180415 178603 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8979.00 8900 9150 8809 9352 9352 [+]
Job Vacancies 4427.00 4713 4566 9235 16130 26777 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.78 1.75 1.7 1.5 1.41 1.41 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.20 12.09 11.84 9.1 8.1 11.91 [+]
Productivity 106.59 107 107 114 125 146 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.50 0.18 0.23 0.13 0.13 0.13 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.62 34.66 34.59 34.6 34.6 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.79 62.78 66.7 66.9 66.9 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 53041.00 27917 17481 33763 33797 33798 [+]
Wages 10.55 10.45 10.45 11.5 15.39 10.45 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.65 19.67 19.69 23.62 22.69 22.69 [+]
Labour Costs 104.22 104 104 107 110 103 [+]
Population 318.86 319 320 333 354 393 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Job Offers 5028.00 5296 5532 10373 17124 25149 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.23 7.25 12 13 13 [+]
Wage Growth 4.77 4.84 4.92 5.47 5.52 5.52 [+]
Prices Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate -0.10 -0.34 -0.24 1.5 3.21 4.31 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.70 -0.44 -0.38 0.46 0.3 0.71 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 234.67 234 236 259 301 385 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.82 2.26 2.76 1.59 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 239.87 240 241 274 295 211 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.63 108 108 135 155 119 [+]
Producer Prices 110.00 111 111 114 118 127 [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.00 0.82 0.77 2.68 2.71 2.71 [+]
Export Prices 125.60 123 122 140 135 120 [+]
Import Prices 127.20 124 125 126 126 126 [+]
Food Inflation 3.20 3.8 4.1 2.6 3.43 4.16 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.12 109 109 116 124 133 [+]
Pce Price Index 108.74 109 110 120 130 110 [+]
Money Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 3 4.5 5.15 [+]
Money Supply M0 4017059.00 4452807 4513418 5486040 5537118 4099855 [+]
Money Supply M1 2924.10 3014 3193 3931 4767 4753 [+]
Money Supply M2 11700.90 11834 11820 14021 23881 13293 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4459378.00 4472555 4490206 1659860 1059860 4502507 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 130077.00 129259 126459 131454 131085 131086 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8001.90 8085 8191 9677 12042 15936 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15220.47 15241 15420 19230 25523 36002 [+]
Trade Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -46560.00 -43239 -43591 -43367 -42502 -42536 [+]
Exports 194880.00 198522 199167 196748 197045 197056 [+]
Imports 241437.00 241762 242758 240116 239546 239592 [+]
Current Account -100255.00 -100953 -100891 -100621 -100583 -100581 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -2.04 -2 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 [+]
External Debt -6157895.00 -6083002 -5883102 -1098601 -915501 -6292940 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.11 98.85 97.41 94.21 95.21 97.17 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 40916.00 42379 40713 40846 40846 40846 [+]
Capital Flows -174809.00 25663 26935 -44140 38758 -42749 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 35374.00 63106 68251 61392 61392 61392 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9020.00 9558 9753 12229 19556 10348 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5809571.00 5188109 4852628 4046193 4044722 4044722 [+]
Government Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.7 -3.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.19 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 102 103 104 101 107 [+]
Government Budget Value -17544.00 -66784 3648 -16294 -20420 -20175 [+]
Government Spending 2899.00 2909 2914 2904 2897 2895 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 52.90 55.32 55.58 56 60 52.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.10 55.79 56 55.52 55.52 55.52 [+]
Services PMI 57.10 59.06 55.61 56.02 56.02 56.02 [+]
Industrial Production 4.80 5.19 5.36 4.96 4.83 4.83 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 0.2 0.15 0.22 0.22 0.22 [+]
Manufacturing Production 5.60 5.42 5.76 5.13 4.89 4.88 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.39 79.79 79.79 79.15 79.35 79.77 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13 0.3 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 2.80 -0.05 -0.44 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.90 57.77 58.97 57.95 57.94 57.94 [+]
Factory Orders -3.40 -2 -2.34 -1.92 -1.92 -1.92 [+]
New Orders 471454.00 492727 493403 491338 490908 490942 [+]
Business Inventories 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.29 0.01 0.03 [+]
Changes in Inventories 88.40 87.16 88.11 84.3 84.36 84.36 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.26 0.16 0.57 0.27 0.27 [+]
Bankruptcies 26983.00 28093 28247 21000 23000 26503 [+]
Corporate Profits 2170.70 1989 2141 1989 1885 2190 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 97.90 98.6 99.49 98.89 98.85 98.85 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 7.78 12.47 11.34 6.27 6.33 6.33 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.20 20.57 19.45 19.54 19.55 19.55 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.23 16.96 16.87 17.21 17.21 17.21 [+]
Car Registrations 524.00 645 645 851 901 562 [+]
Chicago Pmi 45.80 55.91 53.16 55.28 55.36 55.36 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.20 58.17 59.17 57.39 57.41 57.41 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 10.30 6.88 4.84 3.69 3.69 3.69 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -11.20 -0.52 -3.23 -1.19 -1.05 -1.05 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.18 -0.3 0.27 0.28 0.28 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 46.00 -1690 602 20.28 20.28 20.28 [+]
Ism New York Index 63.10 57.44 57.69 60.83 60.83 60.83 [+]
Leading Economic Index 159.22 160 161 164 164 164 [+]
Mining Production 8.50 7.44 5.73 0.86 0.85 0.85 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -219.00 -39.94 101 -90.24 -90.24 -90.24 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 0.00 8.05 8.21 6.32 7.73 7.77 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 50.40 58.65 53.51 53.76 53.75 53.78 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 95.40 96.43 101 97.77 97.74 97.74 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.80 0.64 0.45 0.7 0.6 0.69 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.30 4.37 4.35 4.06 4.05 4.05 [+]
Consumer Spending 11113.60 11208 11299 22209 32211 12199 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13190.40 13160 13148 18154 14154 26418 [+]
Personal Spending -0.20 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Personal Income 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 4.90 5.13 5.31 5.21 5.21 5.21 [+]
Consumer Credit 14.80 16.56 16.44 16.48 16.48 16.48 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.34 3.34 5.92 5.5 3.32 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 49.10 47.42 49.13 48.11 48.11 48.11 [+]
Redbook Index 2.60 4.3 3.88 4.31 4.31 4.31 [+]
Chain Store Sales 538.90 561 561 545 545 545 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.57 0.7 0.63 0.58 0.53 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.90 -0.62 -0.87 -0.73 -0.72 -0.72 [+]
Housing Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.80 0.61 0.62 0.67 0.67 0.67 [+]
Building Permits 1060.00 1065 1081 1091 1091 1091 [+]
Housing Starts 1065.00 1062 1069 1083 1084 1084 [+]
New Home Sales 481.00 471 480 510 510 510 [+]
Pending Home Sales 8.40 8.47 11.05 6.24 6.26 6.26 [+]
Existing Home Sales 4820.00 5060 5098 5115 5116 5116 [+]
Construction Spending -1.10 0.2 0.13 0.05 0.05 0.05 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 55.00 58.57 60.76 60.31 60.46 60.46 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.96 4.2 4.2 6 6 3.91 [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.10 4.69 -2.82 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 173.02 172 177 172 167 165 [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 33 33 35 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23.69 23.86 25.16 25.24 25.24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.56 13.55 13.36 13.19 13.09 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 9.82 9.96 10.73 10.75 10.75 [+]