United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.8 1.9 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.10 1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -39474.00 -40000 -39400 -38500 -38000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 95.47 94.83 96.6 96.63 96.55 95.73 [+]
Stock Market 18261.00 18300 18100 18000 17800 14800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.61 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.6 1.85 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.8 1.9 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17947.00 18400 18400 18900 18900 20243 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16570.20 16700 16850 16900 17000 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16734.00 16835 16924 17014 17105 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2769.00 2773 2765 2759 2754 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51486.00 52000 52000 52400 52400 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52549.01 52930 52930 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 182.20 169 174 171 168 162 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 761.20 770 770 767 760 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2159.00 2152 2144 2132 2118 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 215.20 218 200 196 196 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2356.50 2397 2409 2422 2438 2535 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12556.10 12800 13000 13100 13100 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.10 535 535 533 532 512 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 285.00 259 262 264 264 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 151.00 189 180 190 170 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 126.00 181 156 146 139 110 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 25.00 13 12 11 10 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -14.00 14 9 8 5 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 252.00 256 269 278 287 354 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2113.00 2120 2147 2202 2262 2728 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 177.00 175 156 139 126 63.2 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151614.00 151695 151976 152124 152204 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7849.00 7930 7934 8014 8095 8583 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.2 0.21 0.21 0.2 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.30 34.34 34.32 34.28 34.26 34.28 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.85 62.83 62.83 62.84 62.93 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.26 1.25 1.3 1.36 1.43 2.08 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.20 10.42 10.43 10.51 10.62 11.9 percent [+]
Productivity 106.00 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.10 110 111 111 111 113 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6090.00 5589 5515 5463 5412 4793 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5871.00 5685 5627 5549 5466 4630 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 32188.00 39944 47630 51286 54610 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.64 21.64 21.83 21.85 21.87 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.06 4.16 4.34 4.48 4.61 5.32 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.47 20.42 20.61 20.65 20.85 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.57 0.54 0.59 0.58 0.66 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -0.70 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 324 325 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 4082 4033 3985 3956 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1830 1826 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2710.00 2751 2729 2741 2734 2736 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1675 1667 1671 1669 1670 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27207.00 27306 27334 27319 27312 27199 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 124301.00 124427 124879 125128 125254 124586 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.7 59.73 59.75 59.76 59.81 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10 1 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 240.31 241 242 243 244 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 248.34 249 250 251 252 264 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.26 112 112 112 113 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.30 110 111 111 111 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.10 120 119 119 119 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 120.50 120 119 119 119 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.00 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 110.66 113 111 111 111 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.37 112 112 113 113 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 195.20 194 194 195 195 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.86 0.85 0.98 0.96 0.96 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3816517.00 3841006 3945404 4051673 4159901 5929744 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3314.10 3335 3400 3460 3507 3634 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13005.80 13093 13333 13557 13757 15072 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 120411.00 120234 119656 119070 118495 111264 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4423220.00 4420942 4388172 4364929 4340229 4020574 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16164500.00 16126712 16158113 16156103 16153546 16117460 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2057.64 2056 2054 2049 2043 1891 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.51 198 198 198 197 194 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -13100.00 -14461 -12208 -8322 -4764 9701 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -39474.00 -40000 -39400 -38500 -38000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Exports 186332.00 186700 188600 190000 191000 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 225805.00 227000 228000 228500 229000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -119885.00 -117000 -110000 -109000 -109000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7525643.00 -7442546 -7336290 -7253380 -7132648 -6315365 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.27 101 101 101 101 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 140627.00 -84047 -91713 -49374 -41715 21250 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 39294.00 39290 37531 37078 37633 33221 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 103949.00 26089 39548 32092 33651 25195 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8134 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8701.00 8694 8678 8664 8648 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.61 4.61 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6148538.00 4885992 4718220 4424966 4295975 4178099 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -107112.00 76342 -16730 -44655 -34238 -29786 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2902.10 2909 2913 2914 2913 2888 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 231327.00 363731 293420 271056 276156 253178 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19510296.00 19564711 19718057 19829717 19911414 19969426 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 338438.00 313274 323190 318353 320491 316893 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 9327.00 17700 9955 9843 9776 8899 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 49.40 52 52.1 53 53.1 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 51.40 56 55 57 57.3 54.26 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.40 51.4 52 53 54 53 [+]
Services PMI 51.00 51 52 53.1 53.1 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 51.50 52 52.6 53.5 53.8 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.10 -0.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.50 75.9 76 75.9 75.8 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 4.40 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 3.80 -0.46 -0.18 0.17 0.24 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 1.50 0.11 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.20 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 percent [+]
New Orders 454759.00 449173 447535 445397 443265 419274 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.90 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -12.40 68.18 63.32 69.14 69.32 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.00 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 25227.00 25730 26653 27715 28858 43787 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1469.70 1469 1463 1450 1455 1397 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 94.40 94.45 94.79 95.14 95.42 97.11 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 47.50 53.2 54.43 54 54.71 55.57 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.99 2 4 5 4 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -6.20 1 1.6 1.4 2 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.55 0.3 0.25 0.11 0.14 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.80 -0.5 1.5 2 3 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -11.00 11 -4.06 -2.46 -0.7 1.62 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 51.50 52.1 52.3 53 53.3 53.99 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.98 18.1 17.6 18 18 21.4 Millions [+]
Car Production 4.06 4.06 4.12 4 4 4.1 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 549.34 586 620 631 638 684 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -6.20 1.1 1 1.4 1.5 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -3204.00 -893 -2.31 10.26 10.17 10.17 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 52.00 49.25 8.66 1.39 1.03 1.06 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 178.62 177 178 178 179 178 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6703.00 6620 6520 6300 6320 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -9.30 -8.19 -5.77 -3.75 -2.33 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 89.80 89.9 91.6 91.3 91.6 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.37 0.33 0.35 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.90 2.4 3.7 3.1 3 4.31 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.3 0.34 0.34 0.1 0.34 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11487.40 11500 11633 11718 11784 12491 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14059.90 14050 14169 14289 14409 16147 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.26 0.75 0.32 0.2 0.26 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.70 5.57 5.6 5.63 5.68 6.12 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 17.71 15.41 12.61 11.75 10.67 7.69 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8998.31 9031 9120 9183 9232 9285 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.5 3.64 3.75 4 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 46.70 48.14 47.39 47.87 48.16 49.13 [+]
Redbook Index 0.20 0.42 1.27 1.67 1.91 2.23 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.59 0.61 0.6 0.56 0.57 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.40 79.3 79.3 79.3 79.5 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4122.00 5759 5936 6290 6412 6617 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Building Permits 1139.00 1130 1141 1152 1178 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1142.00 1150 1170 1210 1230 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 654.00 490 510 520 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.40 1.69 1.33 1.29 1.3 1.31 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5330.00 5200 4900 5000 4800 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.00 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.50 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 65.00 59 60 60 59 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.70 5.1 3.75 3.79 3.84 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -7.30 0.06 0.52 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 62.90 62.96 62.97 62.97 62.97 62.97 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 189.87 192 193 193 193 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 9/26/2016