United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 2 1.8 1.9 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.00 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 1 1 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -37436.00 -35430 -35166 -34885 -34631 -31693 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 95.34 94 93.74 92.65 93.83 93.44 [+]
Stock Market 17401.00 17600 17500 17300 17100 14200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.56 1.72 1.73 1.75 1.77 2.04 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 2 1.8 1.9 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17419.00 18032 18142 18252 18252 20333 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16505.10 16697 16798 16902 17005 16680 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16623.20 16791 16876 16962 17049 16843 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2752.80 2776 2729 2718 2708 3099 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46499 46699 46898 46988 47961 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52221 52446 52670 52767 53752 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 193.40 187 183 188 182 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 743.00 754 753 751 745 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2179.40 2176 2176 2171 2161 2239 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 260.00 242 218 200 196 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2341.90 2380 2396 2408 2421 2527 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12447.10 12697 12824 12952 13082 15798 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.40 536 534 534 532 510 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.50 257 259 262 264 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.2 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 38.00 170 189 180 190 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 25.00 99.84 82.77 85.99 90.72 108 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 13.00 10.96 13.4 12.89 13.42 13.52 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -10.00 -8.95 14 9 8 -16.05 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 259.00 264 276 286 294 359 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2142.00 2139 2191 2255 2307 2763 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 173.00 161 144 130 118 59.56 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151030.00 151106 151093 151085 151060 153882 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7436.00 7944 7928 7150 7118 8332 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.17 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.34 34.34 34.36 34.33 34.34 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60 62.62 62.64 62.67 62.66 62.75 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.19 1.3 1.18 1.18 1.21 2 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40 10.39 10.56 10.63 10.74 12.04 percent [+]
Productivity 105.86 106 106 106 106 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 109.67 111 111 112 112 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6077.00 5678 5483 5453 5401 4684 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5788.00 5736 5685 5602 5512 4571 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 30157.00 34451 44034 50720 53767 67485 Persons [+]
Wages 21.49 21.53 21.64 21.83 21.85 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.41 20.41 20.42 20.61 20.65 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 5.20 5.26 5.29 5.32 5.34 5.47 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.57 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.65 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -4.80 -2.1 0.5 1.1 1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 323 324 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1750.00 1720 1696 1676 1660 1597 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4140.00 4069 4093 4085 4087 4087 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2600.00 2670 2670 2670 2670 2670 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1620.00 1645 1645 1645 1645 1645 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27936.00 27889 27871 27865 27856 27731 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 123135.00 123168 123074 123002 122929 121900 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.7 59.71 59.72 59.74 59.78 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 239.41 240 241 242 243 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.07 248 249 250 251 264 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.69 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.45 111 111 111 111 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.10 110 109 110 110 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.10 -0.08 0.32 0.76 1.12 2.8 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.00 121 121 122 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 120.20 121 122 121 121 117 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.70 1.5 2 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 110.28 112 113 111 111 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.87 111 112 112 113 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 198.61 200 200 198 198 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 1 1 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.64 1.1 1.33 0.84 0.96 2.39 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3836463.00 3938747 4038992 4141144 4245276 6095890 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3237.00 3265 3350 3419 3474 3622 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12733.00 12814 13023 13212 13381 14424 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119190.00 119065 118410 117777 117188 109533 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4423010.00 4416817 4383401 4354455 4330687 3977809 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15973600.00 15965779 15986130 15983843 15981253 15942227 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2053.27 2065 2101 2129 2152 2168 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -74600.00 -15799 -10334 -7884 -5185 10211 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -37436.00 -35430 -35166 -34885 -34631 -31693 USD Million [+]
Exports 182796.00 175178 177877 183362 183205 187720 USD Million [+]
Imports 220232.00 215623 215019 214695 214276 246362 USD Million [+]
Current Account -124671.00 -112792 -112130 -126263 -110812 -145199 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.48 -2.65 -2.81 -2.85 -3.56 percent [+]
External Debt -7356784.00 -7230432 -7079773 -6926760 -6874745 -5986003 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.60 99.14 99.47 99.73 99.87 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 80442.00 -56733 -40634 -23157 -11654 22448 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 35823.00 34735 36055 34898 34693 30731 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -79622.00 24825 11848 15474 12901 23122 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8134 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9127.00 9109 9093 9077 9062 7314 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.6 4.6 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6331536.00 4773352 4533973 4321648 4208664 4161539 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -2.58 -2.61 -2.65 -2.8 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -52507.00 -111626 -26122 -18763 -37983 -29136 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2878.90 2887 2893 2896 2901 2903 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 224603.00 216840 273827 287851 274157 256229 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19265452.00 19328580 19425586 19507495 19563075 19510119 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 277111.00 347516 324211 326755 320062 315785 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 15650.00 17650 17650 15650 15650 15650 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.30 51.2 52 52.1 53 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 52.90 53.23 53.75 53.72 53.82 54.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.40 51.4 52 53 53 53 [+]
Services PMI 51.30 55.5 56 53.47 54.14 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 50.90 51.07 53.2 53.99 54.53 55.12 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.40 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 0.4 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.10 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.06 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.90 74.83 74.97 75.35 75.81 79.04 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.20 1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.90 -0.1 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 -0.07 -0.02 0 0 0.01 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 0.56 0.36 0.29 0.26 0.25 percent [+]
New Orders 460508.00 457821 456229 454200 452012 423877 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.90 0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.10 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.60 52.31 48.95 44.05 39.41 32.06 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.60 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24797.00 25446 26103 27160 28341 44342 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1388.50 1430 1356 1334 1325 1243 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 93.80 94.07 94.49 94.84 95.16 97.12 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.01 1.5 2 4 5 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 37.20 48.7 51.03 52.21 53.55 55.51 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -20.80 -16.46 -13.89 -10.77 -2.1 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.51 0.12 0.3 0.25 0.11 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 4.70 -1.3 -0.5 1.5 2 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -1.00 5.13 3.31 2.14 1.88 1.96 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 49.30 50.96 51.29 51.98 52.57 53.93 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.45 18 19.1 17.6 18 21.4 Millions [+]
Car Production 3.78 3.84 3.95 4.02 4.08 4.72 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 622.70 643 636 647 655 686 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -0.92 -0.28 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 62.00 56.27 6.06 0.82 0.66 0.69 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 627.00 -256 15.28 19.29 19.31 19.31 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Leading Economic Index 179.01 179 180 182 184 192 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.1 56.54 57.21 55.86 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6820.00 6822 6722 6315 6797 7145 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -11.50 -10.5 -7.7 -5.07 -3.16 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.78 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 74 75 75 75 75 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 17 17 17 17 17 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 94.30 94.3 92.37 91.54 91.33 86.93 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.50 0.31 0.31 0.35 0.35 0.35 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.50 2.9 2.4 3.7 3.1 4.37 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40 0.4 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.28 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11384.20 12002 12502 11548 11598 12091 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13855.40 13845 13960 14076 14193 16007 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 1.00 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.21 0.31 0.73 0.31 0.26 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.40 5.42 5.47 5.51 5.56 6.06 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 13.42 15.86 14.64 12.22 11.2 7.64 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8858.13 8898 8998 9073 9129 9196 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.53 3.67 3.75 3.86 5.11 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 48.20 48.5 48.18 48.53 48.68 49.21 [+]
Redbook Index 0.90 0.93 1.53 1.89 2.05 2.28 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.62 0.6 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.20 80.04 79.92 80.22 80.14 82.58 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4389.00 6282 6064 6397 6478 6641 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Building Permits 1138.00 1140 1152 1161 1171 1250 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1164.00 1164 1175 1184 1193 1213 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 551.00 531 475 517 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 4.60 3.38 2.9 2.3 1.99 1.42 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5530.00 5569 5472 5453 5439 5182 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -1.80 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.20 0.43 0.41 0.4 0.39 0.31 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 60.00 58 59.79 59.1 58.6 53.76 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.76 4.9 5.1 3.85 3.9 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 2.90 0.02 0.49 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.52 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 184.50 192 195 196 196 174 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 6/27/2016