United States | Economic Forecasts | 2015-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Currency 97.23 96 97 98 100 90 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.31 2.4 2.55 2.6 2.75 3 [+]
Stock Market 17751.39 17000 16500 16250 16000 20000 [+]
GDP Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
GDP 17419.00 17839 18010 18147 18285 22000 [+]
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 3 2.5 2 1 3 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90 3 2.5 2 1 3 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16264.10 16295 16298 16299 16298 19357 [+]
Gross National Product 16396.90 16475 16495 16495 16508 19190 [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46699 46898 46988 47079 47961 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2670.70 2713 2751 2702 2706 3202 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52446 52670 52767 52864 53752 [+]
Labour Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 6.3 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 223.00 200 250 275 300 300 [+]
Government Payrolls 0.00 -17.86 -2.98 7.22 0.28 0.3 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 223.00 252 186 177 167 111 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 4.00 1.22 -5.74 -11.4 -12.53 -16.1 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 255.00 292 301 309 316 281 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2207.00 2038 2317 2247 2198 2343 [+]
ADP Employment Change 237.00 243 228 245 250 251 [+]
Employed Persons 148739.00 149055 149211 149414 149409 160426 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8299.00 8700 8690 8540 8527 8809 [+]
Job Vacancies 5430.00 5331 5049 4895 4831 5871 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.35 1.4 1.35 1.4 1.3 1.5 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.10 11.83 11.07 11.63 11.57 9.1 [+]
Productivity 105.57 105 105 105 105 109 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.00 0.1 0.12 0.22 0.17 0.16 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.49 34.51 34.49 34.49 34.49 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60 62.61 62.7 62.68 62.66 66.7 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 44842.00 62295 64896 58981 64216 67939 [+]
Wages 10.49 10.39 10.45 10.37 10.34 11.5 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.84 19.9 20 19.95 19.96 23.62 [+]
Labour Costs 107.00 107 106 108 108 107 [+]
Population 318.86 321 321 322 322 330 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Job Offers 5363.00 5304 5360 5854 5931 6183 [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 0.80 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.33 7.33 12 [+]
Wage Growth 5.04 4.7 4.79 4.87 4.94 5.43 [+]
Prices Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Inflation Rate 0.10 2 2.5 3 2.5 2 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.38 0.26 0.3 0.4 0.46 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.79 239 240 241 242 263 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.67 1.8 1.72 1.75 2.26 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 242.19 243 251 246 247 274 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.61 109 109 109 109 125 [+]
Producer Prices 110.30 110 108 111 111 117 [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.70 -0.49 -0.1 0.24 0.52 2.19 [+]
Export Prices 125.40 126 135 126 126 140 [+]
Import Prices 126.50 130 130 129 129 129 [+]
Food Inflation 1.80 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.15 2.36 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.78 109 110 110 110 123 [+]
Pce Price Index 109.03 110 115 110 111 120 [+]
Money Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 3 [+]
Money Supply M0 3919529.00 3974578 4832980 3958415 3955865 5486040 [+]
Money Supply M1 3007.90 3040 3220 3126 3167 3931 [+]
Money Supply M2 11982.40 12131 12104 12448 12605 14021 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4461067.00 4435982 4431389 4430418 4429348 1659860 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119535.00 117415 116737 116085 115460 119232 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1888.72 1933 1969 1999 2023 2247 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15393800.00 15540 15706 15876 16049 19044 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 53358.00 4858 7502 8840 9729 11808 [+]
Trade Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Balance of Trade -41871.00 -48103 -47431 -47252 -47208 -43199 [+]
Exports 188595.00 189604 189428 189188 188893 214808 [+]
Imports 230466.00 237156 236332 235516 234802 247237 [+]
Current Account -113337.00 -116481 -115824 -115263 -115105 -115018 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.3 -2.5 -2.35 -2.36 -2 [+]
External Debt -6793958.00 -5864843 -6003251 -6803436 -6977168 -8098600 [+]
Terms of Trade 98.97 99.13 96.54 98.66 98.44 94.21 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 33804.00 37800 38189 35900 36856 48767 [+]
Capital Flows 114967.00 -11082 37669 -1714 10830 -44140 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 92998.00 32407 16265 21428 22066 22182 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9701.00 9026 8903 9784 9840 12229 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6212971.00 6179826 6533431 4790483 4654053 7086871 [+]
Government Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Government Budget -2.80 -2.79 -3 -2.56 -2.6 -1.5 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 103 103 104 105 105 [+]
Government Budget Value 51800.00 21647 -9353 -59877 -28233 -29004 [+]
Government Spending 2893.20 2904 2915 2920 2916 2920 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Government Debt 18151998.00 18145664 18138027 18129083 18119362 17926331 [+]
Government Revenues 342933.00 [+]
Business Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Business Confidence 53.50 53.87 54.67 53.05 52.72 56 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 53.98 54.15 53.86 53.96 53.94 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 56.7 55.59 55.98 55.81 55.82 [+]
Industrial Production 1.30 2.36 2.98 1.35 1.59 1.5 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.20 0.25 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.17 [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.60 3.76 0.61 0.5 0.51 0.49 [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.80 78.5 78.2 77.87 78.07 77.15 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.08 -0.13 -0.12 -0.15 -0.12 -0.1 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 3.40 -0.44 1.08 0.91 0.35 1.01 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.00 56.4 55.79 55.52 56.05 56.05 [+]
Factory Orders -1.00 0.42 0.97 0.9 0.27 0.27 [+]
New Orders 470478.00 477600 475613 473154 470527 482724 [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.33 0.21 0.28 0.27 0.28 [+]
Changes in Inventories 95.00 76.55 84.37 76.63 78.17 80.82 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.15 0.3 0.25 0.27 0.28 [+]
Bankruptcies 26130.00 25466 29526 25281 25304 21000 [+]
Corporate Profits 1406.40 2101 2120 1426 1421 2489 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 94.10 97.67 97.4 96.86 97.32 97.32 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.86 0.32 -2.14 -0.21 -1.2 10 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.70 11.99 10.33 8.71 7.93 6.75 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.16 17.13 17.34 17.24 17.2 18 [+]
Car Registrations 684.20 668 701 674 673 851 [+]
Car Production 4.08 [+]
Chicago Pmi 49.40 50 49.57 49.16 49.23 49.23 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.54 5.51 5.51 5.54 5.55 5.59 [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 8.06 8.06 8.06 8.06 3.16 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.20 56.94 57.15 56.71 56.91 56.87 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 73.28 73.44 73.42 73.39 73.3 [+]
Corruption Rank 17.00 19.42 19.53 19.39 19.25 18.31 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -4.20 0.56 -1.57 2.27 -0.52 0.17 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -4.60 -3.32 -3.36 -4.1 -4.75 4.77 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 3.80 0.35 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.33 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.80 0.42 0.39 0.12 -0.07 -0.07 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -363.00 -1690 674 185 1.29 355 [+]
Ism New York Index 63.10 60.53 61.14 59.5 59.84 60.37 [+]
Leading Economic Index 174.10 169 171 174 176 204 [+]
Mining Production -1.80 -2.16 -1.37 -0.77 -0.36 0.56 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 61.00 70.67 -120 -13.53 79.61 0.8 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 13.00 3.7 4.02 4.17 4.31 4.31 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 50.93 50.11 51.89 54.11 54.77 [+]
Consumer Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.30 99.28 93.59 94.8 94.46 98.85 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.43 0.33 0.42 0.42 0.7 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.40 3.3 3.74 4.15 4.39 2.27 [+]
Consumer Spending 11177.90 11335 11697 11859 12002 16209 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13429.30 13543 13456 13744 13843 18154 [+]
Personal Spending 0.90 0.24 0.42 0.34 0.3 0.3 [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.29 0.2 0.34 0.32 0.32 [+]
Personal Savings 5.10 5.4 5.44 5.49 5.54 5.16 [+]
Consumer Credit 16.09 17.45 17.69 17.7 17.69 17.7 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.41 3.58 3.62 3.72 5.92 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 48.10 47.11 47.84 46.73 47.21 47.16 [+]
Redbook Index 1.00 4.3 3.17 3.44 4.32 2.05 [+]
Chain Store Sales 601.50 574 560 573 570 571 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.74 0.7 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.83 [+]
Private Sector Credit 8261.35 8290 8313 8322 8324 8552 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.38 0.17 0.36 0.29 0.28 [+]
Housing Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Housing Index 0.40 0.33 0.4 0.42 0.4 0.4 [+]
Building Permits 1337.00 1270 1292 1278 1279 1251 [+]
Housing Starts 1174.00 1061 1082 1074 1079 1213 [+]
New Home Sales 482.00 540 553 542 539 610 [+]
Pending Home Sales 8.20 11.76 8.87 10.19 10.41 10.41 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5490.00 5263 5280 5248 5260 5615 [+]
Construction Spending 0.80 0.73 0.58 0.81 0.63 0.63 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 60.00 60.14 61.16 59.35 59.57 59.57 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.17 4 4.4 4.4 4.4 6 [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.80 4.69 -2.82 0.45 -4.15 0.23 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 179.03 182 182 180 184 192 [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.40 63.81 63.81 63.82 63.84 64.08 [+]
Taxes Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 35 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 36 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.22 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.61 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 6.47 [+]



Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 7/30/2015