United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -44510.00 -44700 -40600 -40700 -40600 -48600 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 94.62 95.94 96.07 96.04 95.99 95.46 [+]
Stock Market 18476.00 18300 18100 18000 17800 14800 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.55 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.6 1.85 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17947.00 18400 18400 18900 18900 20243 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16575.10 16700 16850 16900 17000 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16668.30 16826 16897 16972 17050 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2764.40 2772 2766 2760 2756 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51486.00 52000 52000 52400 52400 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52549.01 52930 52930 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 182.20 169 174 171 168 162 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 761.20 770 770 767 760 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2159.00 2152 2144 2132 2118 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 215.20 218 200 196 196 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2356.50 2397 2409 2422 2438 2535 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12556.10 12800 13000 13100 13100 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.10 535 535 533 532 512 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 285.00 259 262 264 264 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 255.00 189 180 190 170 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 217.00 199 176 164 153 111 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 38.00 13 12 11 10 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 9.00 14 9 8 5 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 262.00 269 280 289 297 357 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2175.00 2217 2286 2337 2387 2770 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 179.00 176 157 141 127 62.65 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151517.00 151602 151828 151938 151995 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7770.00 7930 7811 7860 7927 8536 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.45 34.49 34.47 34.46 34.49 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.84 62.82 62.82 62.83 62.91 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.29 1.36 2.05 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.80 10.89 11.03 11.16 11.28 12.22 percent [+]
Productivity 106.00 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 109.49 110 110 110 111 111 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5607.00 5418 5400 5343 5274 4639 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5624.00 5511 5412 5319 5232 4445 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 45346.00 44645 51447 54074 57177 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.59 21.64 21.83 21.85 21.87 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.60 4.75 4.83 4.91 4.98 5.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.46 20.42 20.61 20.65 20.85 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.57 0.54 0.59 0.58 0.66 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.00 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 324 325 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 4082 4033 3985 3956 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1830 1826 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2710.00 2751 2729 2741 2734 2736 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1675 1667 1671 1669 1670 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27595.00 27610 27599 27592 27583 27471 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 123892.00 124075 124348 124474 124526 123749 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.68 59.71 59.72 59.73 59.77 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.80 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 239.83 240 241 242 244 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.71 248 249 250 251 259 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.24 112 112 112 113 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.30 111 111 111 111 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.20 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.10 122 122 122 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 120.70 121 120 119 119 116 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.20 2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 110.64 113 111 111 112 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.24 112 112 113 113 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 197.15 194 193 194 194 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.83 0.65 0.99 0.84 0.84 2.52 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3772402.00 3929729 4035851 4143828 4253751 6046357 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3242.80 3281 3314 3342 3361 3380 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12893.30 13044 13249 13433 13597 14600 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 120202.00 119963 119352 118758 118183 110959 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4427880.00 4420082 4393995 4371048 4346262 4024164 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16072.40 5404751 4972062 5016031 5052835 5471307 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2064.14 2077 2091 2102 2110 2041 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.51 198 198 198 197 194 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -32921.00 -15506 -14160 -9630 -6126 9590 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -44510.00 -44700 -40600 -40700 -40600 -48600 USD Million [+]
Exports 183151.00 178000 184000 184000 184000 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 227661.00 235000 237000 237000 237000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -124671.00 -112130 -126000 -126000 -126000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.65 -2.81 -2.85 -2.88 -2.83 percent [+]
External Debt -7525643.00 -7442546 -7336290 -7253380 -7132648 -6315365 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.27 101 101 101 101 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -202762.00 -84500 -93997 -50179 -42167 20815 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 35823.00 36055 34898 34693 34126 30731 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -3612.00 18469 15205 16315 17537 23407 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8135 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8894.00 8879 8862 8847 8832 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.6 4.61 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6331536.00 4530000 4320000 4210000 4170000 4160000 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -3.78 -3.81 -3.86 -3.91 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -112815.00 44554 -11739 -40072 -31908 -27251 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2906.60 2914 2918 2921 2921 2904 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 209998.00 340543 302250 277756 281484 264612 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19427695.00 19487838 19597255 19672747 19723467 19682161 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 322813.00 318736 321561 317324 317082 312449 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 10535.00 17700 10094 10024 9953 9026 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 52.60 52 52.1 53 53.1 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.50 56 55 57 57.3 54.45 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.10 51 52 53 54 53 [+]
Services PMI 51.40 51 52 53.1 53.1 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 51.80 52 52.6 53.5 53.8 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 -0.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.20 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.92 76.41 77.11 77.61 75.5 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -4.00 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -3.90 -0.46 -0.17 0.14 0.23 0.3 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.50 -0.17 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.40 0.3 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.25 percent [+]
New Orders 447425.00 444197 440955 438293 436036 413599 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -1.50 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -8.10 68.18 63.32 69.14 69.32 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.30 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 25227.00 25730 26653 27715 28858 43787 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1388.50 1377 1358 1351 1345 1276 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 94.60 94.78 95.07 95.36 95.62 97.16 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 60.70 55.14 55.88 55.01 55.35 55.64 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -4.21 2 4 5 4 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -1.30 1 1.6 1.4 2 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27 0.3 0.25 0.11 0.14 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 2.00 -0.5 1.5 2 3 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -11.00 11 -4.06 -2.46 -0.7 1.62 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 55.80 56.58 55.92 55.39 55.01 54.1 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.88 18.1 17.6 18 18 21.4 Millions [+]
Car Production 4.02 4.06 4.13 4 4 4.1 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 640.75 649 652 661 664 686 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 2.50 1.1 1 1.4 1.5 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 36.00 173 16.08 15.57 15.63 15.63 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 22.00 7.31 1.33 0.88 0.88 0.88 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 177.74 178 174 170 165 164 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6833.00 6734 6320 6320 6320 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -10.20 -8.09 -5.62 -3.62 -2.23 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6.48 6.48 6.39 6.29 5.55 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.59 5.61 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.84 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.55 76.11 76.21 76.31 76.83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 15.63 14.85 14.52 14.19 15.1 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 90.40 89.5 91.6 91.3 91.6 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.29 0.4 0.34 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 2.4 3.7 3.1 3 4.34 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.30 0.18 0.27 0.27 0.1 0.28 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11482.80 12500 11625 11707 11772 12455 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13941.00 14035 14151 14269 14387 16089 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.16 0.61 0.18 0.18 0.12 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 5.4 5.44 5.48 5.53 6.01 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 12.32 14.29 11.61 10.98 10.06 7.63 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8969.26 9052 9152 9227 9284 9364 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.5 3.68 3.75 4 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 48.40 48.16 48.15 48.51 48.67 49.2 [+]
Redbook Index 0.20 0.66 1.4 1.74 1.96 2.23 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.58 0.61 0.6 0.46 0.46 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.20 79.92 80.22 80.14 80.81 82.58 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4281.00 5780 6081 6349 6470 6625 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Building Permits 1144.00 1130 1141 1152 1178 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1211.00 1150 1170 1210 1230 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 654.00 490 510 520 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.00 1.63 1.29 1.26 1.28 1.31 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5390.00 5200 4900 5000 4800 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.60 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.28 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 60.00 59 60 60 59 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.67 5.1 3.72 3.76 3.81 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -2.10 0.55 0.5 0.51 0.51 0.51 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 62.90 62.96 62.97 62.97 62.97 62.97 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 188.29 189 189 188 193 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 8/25/2016