United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2030 Outlook

Markets Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Currency 82.16 82 85 81.56 81.59 79.43 79.44 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.34 2.33 3 2.14 2.12 3.82 3.97 [+]
Stock Market 17098.45 16875 16795 16802 16825 19664 21745 [+]
GDP Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
GDP 16800.00 17602 18300 17436 24680 22330 25625 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 4.20 2.9 3 0.37 1.1 3.1 3.1 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 2.8 3 2.31 2.32 2.47 2.72 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 15994.30 16060 16145 16103 22871 20972 25025 [+]
Gross National Product 16009.80 16292 16365 16372 40656 64412 118075 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 45901 45904 46315 56696 48720 54325 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2586.30 2563 2173 2572 2553 2534 2531 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 45336.00 45500 45900 46448 56857 52780 66625 [+]
Labour Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.1 6 5.3 5.2 5.7 5.8 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 209.00 235 300 265 237 233 233 [+]
Government Payrolls 11.00 -11.78 11.04 20.65 10.27 10.32 10.32 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private 198.00 252 233 248 228 225 224 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 28.00 22.9 27.25 14.9 14.36 15.48 15.61 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 298.00 302 350 290 295 300 301 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2527.00 2506 2383 2331 2404 2515 2503 [+]
Adp Employment Change 218.00 204 222 216 205 209 208 [+]
Employed Persons 146352.00 146629 147068 147615 312151 162832 184925 [+]
Unemployed Persons 9671.00 9079 8642 8337 8120 8902 9096 [+]
Job Vacancies 4712.00 4578 4283 4958 5122 6323 5930 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.02 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 3 3.5 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 12.27 11.59 11.25 10.64 7.74 9.24 [+]
Productivity 106.01 108 108 108 150 130 144 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.04 0.2 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.5 34.48 34.5 34.49 34.47 34.47 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.71 62.59 62.55 62.56 62.58 62.58 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 46887.00 51322 54462 47602 52541 52609 52654 [+]
Wages 10.29 10.27 10.32 10.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.60 19.69 19.82 19.79 20.08 20.96 21.55 [+]
Labour Costs 105.33 104 104 104 103 103 103 [+]
Population 317.30 319 320 320 322 332 351 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 65.97 66 66 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Prices Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.6 3 2.14 1.84 1.88 2.38 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.3 0.2 0.24 0.5 0.76 1.26 [+]
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 237.90 239 241 243 352 484 879 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 1.9 1.61 1.87 1.69 2.26 2.76 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 238.31 239 240 241 360 473 757 [+]
Gdp Deflator 108.23 109 109 110 111 118 129 [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 112 112 113 132 153 196 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.70 2.01 2.05 2.06 1.66 3.86 3.98 [+]
Export Prices 133.10 134 133 134 133 133 133 [+]
Import Prices 140.00 141 139 140 139 138 139 [+]
Food Inflation 2.43 1.92 2 2 1.68 2.02 1.52 [+]
Money Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 1 3 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 3989063.00 4228442 4380054 4452807 10920628 16225652 30486848 [+]
Money Supply M1 2834.80 2880 2955 3014 7946 13160 24606 [+]
Money Supply M2 11351.40 11498 11673 11834 30713 51163 66442 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4375964.00 4435253 4212502 4834091 4945765 1659860 1059860 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145176.00 145548 144709 143468 145237 145185 145197 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7666.05 7638 7722 7769 7842 7828 7625 [+]
Trade Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Balance of Trade -41538.00 -45839 -45711 -46004 -74967 -102728 -132620 [+]
Exports 195863.00 195938 196535 197215 343946 455025 606350 [+]
Imports 237401.00 241777 242247 243219 419663 559294 742286 [+]
Current Account -111156.00 -97451 -97616 -96956 -99372 -98370 -98491 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.93 -2.25 -1.78 -1.65 -0.1 -0.05 [+]
External Debt -4782773.00 3826218 1373251 2295731 1373251 1098601 915501 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.51 57.97 51.91 49.85 42.54 44.21 44.21 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -117086.00 93669 17379 56201 35126 28101 23417 [+]
Capital Flows -153500.00 -22058 40147 25663 37669 2267826 102635725 [+]
Net Long-term Tic Flows -18700.00 -10347 14283 19962 11136 11683 11683 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8357.00 8435 8821 8972 9137 9073 9073 [+]
Government Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -4.10 -3.5 -3.8 -3.7 -3 -1.5 -1.5 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 101 102 101 101 101 101 [+]
Government Budget Value -94593.00 24521 -5291 -50009 -1694 -1694 -1694 [+]
Government Spending 2878.70 2840 2827 2807 5369 6774 9779 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 57.10 55.86 55.12 55.32 54.67 81.38 85.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 58.00 54.3 54.3 55.45 55.4 53.93 53.93 [+]
Services PMI 58.50 55.74 56.77 55.73 55.58 55.57 55.57 [+]
Industrial Production 5.00 4.74 4.98 5.05 4.15 4.18 4.35 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.40 0.29 0.42 0.39 0.34 3.95 3.65 [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.90 3.82 4.1 3.31 3.02 4.03 3.62 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.20 79.35 79.69 79.67 79.4 79.18 79.23 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.39 0.14 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 22.60 9.47 8.92 10.58 8 8.05 8.05 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.70 56.32 56.23 56.15 56.06 55.96 55.95 [+]
Factory Orders 1.10 0.53 0.96 1.1 0.9 0.91 0.91 [+]
New Orders 503238.00 502660 502379 501925 496191 498340 497077 [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.54 0.47 0.56 0.42 0.44 0.44 [+]
Changes in Inventories 93.40 94.86 91.24 85.98 88.63 90.92 90.77 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.30 0.75 1.18 1.08 0.91 1 1 [+]
Bankruptcies 30113.00 29270 28534 28093 29526 218 1.15 [+]
Corporate Profits 1942.10 1992 1990 1989 1989 1989 1989 [+]
Nfib Business Optimism Index 95.70 95.83 96.33 95.71 95.47 95.64 95.67 [+]
Ny Empire State Manufacturing Index 14.70 14.02 13.33 22.14 12.42 13.56 13.8 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 28.00 21.06 22.93 16.53 15.41 15.91 15.92 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.48 16.7 17.21 17.29 17.64 17.64 17.64 [+]
Car Registrations 729.90 639 551 645 1392 2185 4104 [+]
Leading Economic Index 103.30 [+]
Consumer Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence 82.50 81.21 81.66 81.56 81.62 89.36 93.61 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.04 0.24 0.34 0.64 0.33 3.93 3.63 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 3.45 3.45 3.35 3.74 3.94 3.63 [+]
Consumer Spending 10910.40 11013 11067 11104 21855 30492 44761 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13021.20 12968 13096 13160 33455 54238 102022 [+]
Personal Spending -0.10 0.33 0.46 0.52 0.44 0.44 0.44 [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.35 1 0.43 0.31 0.99 0.99 [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 4.15 4.52 4.13 4.5 0.1 0.05 [+]
Consumer Credit 17.30 20.62 25.14 20.89 24.25 24.4 24.4 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.43 3.38 3.34 3.58 5.92 6 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 44.50 46.23 47.73 47.01 47.04 47.2 47.21 [+]
Redbook Index 4.00 3.99 3.54 4.2 4.07 4.09 4.09 [+]
Housing Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 0.40 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 [+]
Building Permits 1057.00 1021 1052 1006 1026 1024 1024 [+]
Housing Starts 1093.00 1036 1072 1008 1033 1018 1019 [+]
New Home Sales 412.00 441 461 448 467 467 467 [+]
Pending Home Sales -2.10 19.6 14.7 11.76 7.35 5.88 4.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5150.00 4612 4377 4271 4294 4350 4350 [+]
Construction Spending -1.82 -0.59 -0.97 -0.43 -0.81 -0.83 -0.83 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 55.00 48.36 47.71 47.12 47.4 48.36 48.31 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.28 4.21 4.11 4.13 4.11 4.14 4.15 [+]
Mortgage Applications 2.80 4.69 -2.82 0.45 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Taxes Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 35 35 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 33 33 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23 23 23 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 10 10 10 10 11 11 [+]






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This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 9/1/2014