United States | Economic Forecasts | 2015-2050 Outlook

Markets Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Currency 95.60 96 97 98 100 90 [+]
Stock Market 16058.35 16700 16100 15600 15300 18700 Index points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.16 2.4 2.55 2.6 2.75 3 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
GDP 17419.00 17839 18010 18147 18285 22000 USD Billion [+]
GDP Growth Rate 3.70 2.5 3.2 2 2 3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 3 2.5 2.5 3 3 percent [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16324.30 16402 16473 16509 16571 19357 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16509.30 16581 16650 16675 16740 19190 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46699 46898 46988 47079 47961 USD [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2728.60 2713 2751 2765 2771 3202 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52446 52670 52767 52864 53752 USD [+]
Gdp From Agriculture 190.70 191 189 197 193 193 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Construction 686.20 706 714 721 727 763 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Manufacturing 2116.60 2124 2126 2128 2128 2131 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Mining 332.50 273 297 323 334 319 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 2270.60 2290 2299 2310 2319 2466 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Services 12096.60 12368 12471 12579 12690 14049 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Transport 515.40 518 519 518 519 519 USD Billion [+]
Gdp From Utilities 296.60 301 303 305 307 348 USD Billion [+]
Labour Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 6.3 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 215.00 200 250 275 300 300 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 5.00 -16.83 -2.07 8.1 -15.82 1.08 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 210.00 250 185 176 165 112 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 15.00 14.42 3.12 -5.76 -11.64 -16.03 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 271.00 277 287 297 305 269 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2269.00 2255 2194 2197 2177 2254 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 185.00 177 162 181 192 187 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 148840.00 148969 149095 149332 149442 160426 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 8266.00 8700 8690 7787 7679 8809 Thousand [+]
Job Vacancies 5250.00 5331 5049 4921 4857 5871 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.39 1.4 1.35 1.4 1.3 1.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.70 11.64 11.07 11.35 11.29 9.1 percent [+]
Productivity 105.37 105 105 105 105 109 Index Points [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.09 0.11 0.2 0.2 0.16 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.56 34.6 34.59 34.58 34.6 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.60 62.54 62.7 62.61 62.62 66.7 percent [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 105696.00 82239 84177 75021 65029 68334 Persons [+]
Wages 10.50 10.39 10.45 10.39 10.36 11.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.93 19.9 20 20.09 20.12 23.62 USD/Hour [+]
Labour Costs 107.26 108 106 109 109 107 Index Points [+]
Population 318.86 321 321 322 322 330 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.20 0.49 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 Percent [+]
Job Offers 5249.00 5304 5360 5677 5729 6183 Thousands [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.10 0.52 0.3 0.55 0.5 0.48 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.36 7.4 12 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.24 4.33 4.47 4.58 4.69 5.39 percent [+]
Prices Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Inflation Rate 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.38 0.26 0.3 0.4 0.46 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 238.10 239 240 241 242 262 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.85 1.8 1.89 1.92 2.26 percent [+]
Core Consumer Prices 242.51 243 251 245 246 274 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 109.66 109 109 111 111 125 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.50 111 108 111 111 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 -0.5 -0.11 0.21 0.5 2.18 percent [+]
Export Prices 125.00 125 135 125 125 140 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 125.50 124 124 124 124 124 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.60 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.15 2.36 percent [+]
Core Pce Price Index 109.49 110 110 110 111 123 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 109.76 110 115 111 111 120 Index Points [+]
Money Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 3 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3961126.00 3967532 4832980 3967319 3967758 5486040 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3035.60 3072 3220 3172 3220 3931 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12059.10 12170 12104 12499 12662 14021 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4446736.00 4428387 4425229 4426620 4426456 1659860 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119318.00 118249 117385 116679 116054 118844 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1897.45 1919 1946 1967 1984 2149 USD Billion [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15467900.00 15534154 15700887 15866724 16032094 18942123 USD Million [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 69849.00 36361 26867 22033 18856 12050 USD Million [+]
Trade Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Balance of Trade -43840.00 -47631 -48547 -48965 -49044 -41371 USD Million [+]
Exports 188576.00 188252 187790 187409 187040 214808 USD Million [+]
Imports 232414.00 228925 226970 225906 225161 247237 USD Million [+]
Current Account -113337.00 -116481 -115824 -115263 -115105 -115018 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.29 -2.5 -2.35 -2.36 -2 percent [+]
External Debt -6793958.00 -5864843 -6003251 -6664035 -6864048 -8098600 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.18 99.78 96.54 99.03 98.81 94.21 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 33804.00 37800 38189 35900 36856 48767 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -110258.00 -43545 37669 -10997 4701 -44140 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 103106.00 57610 30012 34314 34221 41672 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9511.00 9026 8903 10255 10392 12229 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6212971.00 6179826 6533431 4790483 4654053 7086871 [+]
Government Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Government Budget -2.80 -2.79 -3 -2.56 -2.6 -1.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Debt to GDP 102.98 104 103 105 106 105 percent [+]
Government Budget Value -149200.00 70855 -7270 -64864 5144 -33289 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2857.00 2860 2859 2856 2866 2893 USD Billion [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 374680.00 314157 319242 317042 315101 313835 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 18151323.00 18148303 18141691 18133386 18124072 17932600 USD Million [+]
Government Revenues 225493.00 325363 291414 283230 282409 282157 USD Million [+]
Business Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Business Confidence 51.10 50.9 54.67 51.05 51.5 56 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.00 53.59 53.85 53.6 53.67 53.7 [+]
Services PMI 55.20 56.15 55.47 55.86 55.66 55.74 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.30 2.36 2.98 1.49 1.69 1.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.16 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.50 3.76 1.15 1.04 1.19 1.06 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.00 78.5 78.2 78.56 78.73 78.44 percent [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.34 0.18 0.09 0 -0.05 -0.1 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 2.00 -0.44 1.08 0.89 0.95 1.01 percent [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 60.30 59.11 58.5 58.26 58.96 58.75 percent [+]
Factory Orders 1.80 0.48 0.82 0.9 0.27 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 478499.00 475786 473689 471282 468686 474616 USD Million [+]
Business Inventories 0.80 0.72 0.49 0.64 0.59 0.61 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 110.00 95.08 99.96 92.14 87.99 92.37 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.90 0.6 0.71 0.68 0.71 0.72 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 25046.00 24716 29526 24026 24011 21000 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1513.90 2101 2120 1535 1526 2489 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 95.40 95.58 95.88 95.38 95.5 95.89 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -14.92 -9.19 -2.14 -8.56 -9.23 10 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.30 7.28 7.65 7.02 7.32 6.77 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.81 17.43 17.64 17.51 17.39 18 Millions [+]
Car Registrations 646.60 617 701 658 659 851 Thousand [+]
Car Production 4.90 4.73 4.59 4.56 4.56 4.56 Million [+]
Chicago Pmi 54.40 55.33 54.63 54.24 53.78 54.28 Index Points [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.54 5.51 5.51 5.54 5.55 5.59 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 4.22 4.22 3 2.59 3.16 [+]
Composite Pmi 55.00 55.95 57.02 56.79 56.79 56.82 Index Points [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 73 73 73 73 73 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 17.00 19 20 19 19 18 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -5.45 0.58 -1.62 2.22 -0.56 0.15 BBL/1Million [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -15.80 -12.6 -11.58 -11.13 -12.72 4.77 Index Points [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 1.00 0.83 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.35 Percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.60 1.18 0.66 0.39 0.08 0.05 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1660.00 -1690 674 185 1.29 355 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Ism New York Index 68.80 64.31 65.74 63.04 62.91 64.37 percent [+]
Leading Economic Index 174.59 175 177 178 179 191 Index Points [+]
Mining Production -1.80 -1.55 -0.94 -0.47 -0.13 0.71 percent [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 69.00 69.74 -120 -13.37 79.78 0.77 Billion cf [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 0.00 1.85 3.55 2.59 3.36 2.98 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 50.92 50.11 51.89 54.1 54.76 [+]
Consumer Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 92.90 99.28 92.48 93.64 94.56 98.85 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.27 0.33 0.36 0.41 0.7 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.40 3.01 3.69 4.15 4.42 2.23 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11166.40 11237 11697 11859 12002 16209 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13407.80 13483 13456 13675 13771 18154 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.24 0.41 0.34 0.32 0.3 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.32 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Personal Savings 4.90 5.16 5.12 5.2 5.25 4.99 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 20.74 17.81 18.11 18.08 18.09 18.09 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.31 3.58 3.54 3.65 5.92 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 42.00 47.63 45.2 45.05 45.96 46.04 [+]
Redbook Index 1.30 4.3 3.17 3.44 4.32 2.05 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 594.10 585 574 589 587 586 Index Points [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.72 0.7 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.83 USD/Liter [+]
Private Sector Credit 8321.52 8386 8443 8469 8480 8552 USD Billion [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40 0.33 0.13 0.36 0.2 0.28 percent [+]
Housing Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Housing Index 0.20 0.3 0.38 0.4 0.37 0.37 percent [+]
Building Permits 1130.00 1138 1154 1141 1144 1251 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1206.00 1209 1245 1244 1239 1213 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 507.00 501 516 503 499 610 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 7.40 9.04 6.41 7.55 8.34 7.82 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5590.00 5595 5541 5525 5539 5615 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.70 0.82 0.66 0.87 0.87 0.69 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 61.00 60.14 61.16 60.75 60.94 60.97 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.08 4 4.4 4.4 4.4 6 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.20 4.69 -2.82 0.45 -4.15 0.23 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 180.88 183 182 181 185 192 Index Points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.40 63.45 63.48 63.48 63.5 63.77 percent [+]
Taxes Actual Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 35 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 36 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 19.58 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.61 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 6.47 percent [+]



Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 9/2/2015