United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.5 2 2.8 2.62 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5 5 5.1 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.07 2.49 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.75 1 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -43357.00 -42702 -42186 -41771 -41395 -36491 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 102.98 103 104 105 105 113 percent [+]
Markets Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Currency 95.82 98 100 99.19 98.96 96.67 [+]
Stock Market 15909.00 15800 15400 14900 14600 20200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.73 2.23 2.3 2.41 2.52 3.29 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.5 2 2.8 2.62 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 2.3 3 2.2 2.5 2.8 percent [+]
GDP 17419.00 17348 17557 17767 17977 20188 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16442.30 16678 16799 16922 17040 18971 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16585.10 16792 16868 16944 17020 18364 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2762.20 2728 2706 2685 2667 2587 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46480 46671 46862 47053 50025 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52332 52462 52593 52723 53976 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 205.30 203 193 190 193 174 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 724.10 734 735 734 728 561 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2187.70 2193 2193 2195 2192 2039 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 292.90 280 276 281 285 332 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2330.90 2361 2385 2401 2416 2546 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12319.30 12477 12551 12615 12666 12589 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 528.60 527 528 525 524 500 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 290.90 289 288 288 287 274 USD Billion [+]
Labour Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5 5 5 5.1 6.3 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 151.00 275 250 186 211 211 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 158.00 188 171 160 150 109 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -7.00 7.84 12.07 12.55 13.23 13.51 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 29.00 14.42 4.03 -3.97 -8.65 -15.43 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 285.00 291 300 307 315 366 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2255.00 2310 2367 2417 2465 2827 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 205.00 200 171 148 130 54.76 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 150544.00 151055 151733 152146 152401 152148 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7791.00 8098 7944 7928 7765 8530 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.50 0.15 0.21 0.21 0.2 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.53 34.53 34.55 34.57 34.56 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.7 62.65 62.67 62.68 62.78 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.31 1.4 1.3 1.46 1.57 2.07 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20 11.23 11.3 11.41 11.5 12.4 percent [+]
Labour Costs 109.47 110 110 111 111 112 Index Points [+]
Productivity 105.67 106 106 106 106 104 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 4972.00 4964 4933 4848 4786 4159 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5607.00 5451 5338 5240 5135 4216 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 75100.00 55325 53807 58170 60811 68026 Persons [+]
Wages 21.33 21.34 21.58 21.79 21.85 29.91 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.46 4.55 4.65 4.76 4.85 5.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.15 20.19 20.27 20.35 20.44 21.79 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.46 0.58 0.57 0.52 0.65 Percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 0.40 0.65 1.2 1.1 1.4 0.8 [+]
Population 318.86 319 320 321 321 330 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1440.00 1471 1473 1473 1473 1473 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4000.00 4058 4051 4052 4052 4052 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27364.00 27326 27321 27313 27305 27178 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.60 59.68 59.78 59.85 59.91 60.09 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 123141.00 123496 123983 124239 124372 123545 Thousand [+]
Prices Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.07 2.49 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.21 0.23 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.85 238 237 237 237 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 244.45 246 247 248 248 258 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.10 2.15 2.17 2.2 2.22 2.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.25 111 111 111 111 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 109.60 109 109 109 109 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -1.00 -0.4 0.14 0.62 1.02 2.82 percent [+]
Export Prices 119.90 119 118 118 117 115 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 119.40 118 118 118 118 114 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 2.2 2.15 2.45 1.69 3.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 109.73 111 112 113 109 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.07 110 111 111 111 116 Index Points [+]
Money Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.5 0.75 1 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.62 0.83 1.1 1.33 1.06 2.56 Percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3792738.00 3942224 4050781 4161561 4274655 6474445 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3076.30 3090 3106 3117 3123 3087 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12330.00 12456 12574 12677 12765 13180 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 117581.00 117251 116563 115957 115377 107244 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4444886.00 4430120 4402361 4374423 4346793 3945706 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15590400.00 15641910 15643169 15640617 15637995 15595933 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1977.11 2031 2078 2117 2149 2212 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 38363.00 -1222 4031 4447 6337 11530 USD Million [+]
Trade Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Balance of Trade -43357.00 -42702 -42186 -41771 -41395 -36491 USD Million [+]
Exports 181497.00 180430 175178 177877 176444 170375 USD Million [+]
Imports 224854.00 221986 220724 219920 219269 210306 USD Million [+]
Current Account -124120.00 -113000 -111716 -110529 -109451 -100456 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.21 -2.25 -2.29 -2.34 -2.48 percent [+]
External Debt -7269829.00 -6987188 -7014504 -6839311 -6698408 -5802479 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.03 100 99.88 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -3209.00 -72307 -36122 -25072 -9568 22837 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 38492.00 35496 36468 36315 36026 31169 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 31401.00 22962 24621 23088 23339 24230 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8135 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9318.00 9303 9288 9273 9258 9033 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6188828.00 4841847 4557165 4342247 4200548 4089739 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.72 4.76 4.79 4.79 5.17 [+]
Government Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Government Debt to GDP 102.98 103 104 105 105 113 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -3.6 -3.76 -3.92 -4.08 -0.07 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 55163.00 -59747 -50064 -44543 -44316 -29549 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2874.50 2878 2886 2893 2896 2898 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 349631.00 284502 266516 263141 257868 238742 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19012828.00 19355490 19740532 20082886 20341433 21152788 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 364075.00 328571 329128 320909 316866 309605 USD Million [+]
Credit Rating 96.57 [+]
Asylum Applications 15650.00 17650 17650 17650 15510 15278 Persons [+]
Business Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Business Confidence 48.20 48.83 49.73 50.4 50.82 51.41 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.40 53 52.6 53.8 53.6 53.9 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 54.07 53.68 53.79 53.92 54.32 percent [+]
Services PMI 53.20 54.57 55.5 56 55.47 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.20 55.31 56.61 56.25 56.21 56.26 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -1.80 -2.34 -1.86 -0.8 0.38 1.99 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 -0.11 0.03 0.09 0.13 0.15 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.80 0.9 0.7 1.09 1.52 2.18 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.50 76.04 76.04 76.29 76.63 79.22 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -5.10 -0.45 -0.15 0.18 0.3 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -2.90 -0.52 -0.1 0.13 0.24 0.31 Percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -1.20 -0.49 -0.07 -0.03 -0.05 -0.01 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.80 -0.08 0.14 0.2 0.23 0.24 percent [+]
New Orders 456492.00 453951 450054 446816 444125 415224 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.90 -0.32 0.3 0.29 0.26 0.25 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.20 -0.1 -0.17 -0.13 -0.15 -0.14 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 68.60 50.25 37.65 36.36 35.23 31.47 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.10 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.29 0.38 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24735.00 24960 25725 26483 27629 44764 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1508.90 1488 1430 1477 1471 1400 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 93.90 94.3 94.92 95.2 95.48 97.25 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -3.50 -0.7 1.55 3.22 4.29 6.38 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -19.37 -9.53 -3.92 1.54 4.76 7.14 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 54.60 58.52 56.11 56.27 56.16 55.82 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -34.60 -28.32 -22.54 -18.31 -14.87 1.04 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.22 -0.18 0.12 0.09 -0.12 -0.1 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 2.00 3.1 2.43 2.21 2.11 1.88 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 55.60 53.4 54.26 54.21 54.15 54.05 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.58 17.68 17.45 17.34 17.23 16.11 Millions [+]
Car Production 3.95 4.1 4.15 4.21 4.27 4.85 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 551.60 635 639 644 655 688 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -0.75 0.22 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -152.00 -69.25 -6.74 -1.27 -1.25 -1.28 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1258.00 -227 29.98 32.83 32.82 32.82 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Leading Economic Index 177.02 178 180 181 182 188 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Mining Production -11.20 -8.8 -6.23 -3.97 -2.33 0.45 percent [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 74.41 74.98 75.55 76.11 76.83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 17.18 16.4 15.63 14.85 15.1 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.84 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6.48 6.48 6.48 6.48 5.55 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.30 91.27 90.61 90.29 89.85 86.3 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.10 0.29 0.29 0.34 0.34 0.35 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.20 2.53 2.98 3.3 3.55 4.37 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11322.50 11859 12002 12502 11583 12214 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13654.40 13777 13891 14005 14121 16025 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.00 0.32 0.38 0.42 0.44 0.46 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.30 0.39 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.45 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 5.53 5.57 5.61 5.65 6.16 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 21.27 15.77 13.53 11.87 10.8 7.54 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8591.54 8717 8824 8899 8956 9012 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.61 3.65 3.78 3.87 5.21 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 47.80 47.74 48.08 48.34 48.55 49.22 [+]
Redbook Index 0.60 1.16 1.69 1.98 2.15 2.32 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.10 79.71 80.92 81.09 81.53 85.47 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 6083.00 6124 6409 6518 6587 6667 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.54 0.54 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Housing Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Building Permits 1232.00 1220 1225 1232 1238 1301 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1149.00 1165 1173 1182 1192 1288 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 544.00 510 531 475 517 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 4.20 3.01 2.47 2.02 1.79 1.39 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5460.00 5546 5402 5396 5378 5115 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.10 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.29 0.31 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.50 0.48 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.31 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 60.00 59.27 58.97 58.48 58.01 53.23 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.91 4.6 4.9 5.1 4.08 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 9.30 1.12 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.80 63.78 63.78 63.78 63.78 63.78 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 182.86 183 182 181 180 160 Index Points [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 2/11/2016