United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 2 2.8 2.5 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.1 5.2 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.8 1.2 1.9 2 2.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 1 4.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -47060.00 -46908 -46697 -46336 -45935 -40523 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Currency 93.64 100 93.74 92.65 93.83 93.44 [+]
Stock Market 17831.00 17700 17100 16600 16200 22500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.82 1.81 1.86 1.95 2.04 2.66 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 2 2.8 2.5 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17419.00 18032 18142 18252 18252 20333 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16492.70 16696 16797 16901 17003 16680 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16631.70 16702 16732 16755 16777 16843 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2751.80 2776 2707 2685 2665 3099 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 46405.26 46499 46699 46898 46988 47961 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52117.76 52221 52446 52670 52767 53752 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 193.40 187 183 188 182 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 743.00 754 753 751 745 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2179.40 2176 2176 2171 2161 2239 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 260.00 245 251 260 268 333 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2341.90 2380 2396 2408 2421 2527 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12447.10 12632 12719 12797 12863 13045 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.40 536 534 534 532 510 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.50 286 285 284 283 272 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5.1 5.2 5.2 6.7 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 215.00 250 186 225 200 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 195.00 180 167 156 146 110 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 20.00 13.23 14.14 13.46 13.6 13.56 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -29.00 -22.53 14 9 8 -16.11 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 257.00 264 275 286 294 359 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2130.00 2122 2175 2241 2294 2762 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 200.00 168 149 134 121 58.55 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151320.00 152172 152692 153015 153208 153882 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7966.00 7944 7928 8168 8234 8620 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.2 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.35 34.33 34.35 34.33 34.32 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.00 62.93 62.91 62.93 62.93 63.03 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.36 1.3 1.58 1.72 1.87 2.01 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.40 10.26 10.38 10.48 10.6 11.97 percent [+]
Productivity 106.00 106 106 106 106 107 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 108.76 109 110 110 110 116 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5291.00 5201 5105 5070 5019 4416 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5445.00 5451 5376 5271 5156 4094 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 48207.00 50519 56183 59877 62122 67919 Persons [+]
Wages 21.37 21.53 21.64 21.83 21.85 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.33 20.41 20.42 20.61 20.65 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.29 4.47 4.58 4.69 4.78 5.36 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.54 0.54 0.49 0.55 0.62 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -2.10 0.4 0.5 1 1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 323 324 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1750.00 1720 1696 1676 1660 1597 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4140.00 4069 4093 4085 4087 4087 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27818.00 27733 27733 27724 27715 27591 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 123447.00 123907 124148 124273 124322 123442 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.90 60.08 60.22 60.33 60.41 60.66 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Inflation Rate 0.90 0.8 1.2 1.9 2 2.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.92 238 238 238 238 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 246.10 247 249 250 251 262 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.59 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.48 111 111 111 111 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 109.50 109 109 109 109 117 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.10 0.32 0.74 1.11 1.42 2.84 percent [+]
Export Prices 118.20 118 118 117 117 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 117.50 117 117 117 117 113 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.80 1.5 2 1.8 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 109.82 112 113 110 111 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.56 111 112 112 112 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 191.26 195 195 195 195 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 1 1 4.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.64 1.1 1.33 0.94 1.06 2.47 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3898447.00 4014781 4124095 4235766 4349883 6417030 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3145.40 3192 3233 3263 3286 3318 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12567.20 12782 12968 13133 13280 14146 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 117218.00 116753 116167 115597 115036 118138 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4447990.00 4439176 4416371 4388929 4365250 4009550 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15889800.00 15902694 15903820 15901280 15898678 15859525 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2023.14 2069 2109 2142 2169 2214 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 9905.00 -14758 -4627 -2432 791 10876 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Balance of Trade -47060.00 -46908 -46697 -46336 -45935 -40523 USD Million [+]
Exports 178070.00 175178 177877 173990 173456 187720 USD Million [+]
Imports 225130.00 225371 225339 224955 224445 246362 USD Million [+]
Current Account -125314.00 -125882 -125757 -126263 -128000 -145199 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.48 -2.65 -2.81 -2.85 -3.56 percent [+]
External Debt -7356784.00 -7230432 -7079773 -6926760 -6874745 -5986003 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.03 99.79 99.68 99.59 99.52 99.66 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 33542.00 -53488 -33550 -20020 -8100 22604 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 35494.00 34069 36038 35217 34701 35030 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 72000.00 18587 21010 21999 21814 24038 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8134 8133 8134 8134 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9179.00 9164 9149 9135 9120 7314 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.6 4.6 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6188828.00 5096033 4923719 4780971 4662727 4124074 [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 104 106 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -2.58 -2.61 -2.65 -2.8 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -108000.00 -88696 -34662 -37473 -50120 -32167 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2878.90 2887 2893 2896 2901 2903 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 227848.00 232710 264565 257079 248935 233396 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19264939.00 19607171 19879637 20084122 20247062 20640486 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 335891.00 325961 317622 318511 318488 318197 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 15650.00 17650 17650 15650 15650 15650 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Business Confidence 51.80 52.7 51 52.11 51.86 51.48 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.50 53.97 54.06 54.12 54.18 54.34 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.80 50.8 50.4 51.9 50.9 53.9 [+]
Services PMI 52.10 55.5 56 54.87 55.33 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 51.70 54.33 55.29 55.28 55.58 55.61 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -2.00 -1.3 -0.32 0.69 1.54 1.94 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.60 -0.16 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.14 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.40 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 74.80 73.92 73.89 74.23 74.76 78.95 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 0 0.51 0.38 0.38 0.33 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00 -0.32 0.13 0.2 0.28 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.20 0.03 0.05 0 -0.01 0 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.80 0.04 0.16 0.2 0.22 0.23 percent [+]
New Orders 453956.00 446657 443003 440199 437814 412635 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -1.70 0.43 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.24 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.10 -0.1 -0.02 -0.06 -0.04 -0.05 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 60.90 45.91 43.84 39.17 37.63 31.82 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.50 0 0.13 0.22 0.28 0.37 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24735.00 24923 25107 25152 25172 25224 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1380.40 1430 1363 1344 1340 1327 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 92.60 93.5 94.06 94.44 94.8 97.04 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.56 1.5 1 -2 4.63 3 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -1.60 0.7 3.46 4.28 5.05 6.4 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 50.40 53.44 54.54 54.92 55.22 55.69 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -13.90 -9.59 -8.21 -6.3 -4.57 2.57 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.44 0.12 0.09 -0.18 0.11 0.1 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14.00 13.71 9.38 6.34 4.62 2.24 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 53.60 54.18 53.97 53.94 53.96 54.02 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.57 17.01 16.81 16.72 16.64 15.83 Millions [+]
Car Production 3.93 4.03 4.1 4.16 4.22 4.79 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 568.70 631 634 647 654 603 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 2.00 0.13 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 73.00 33.25 2.8 0.25 0.21 0.22 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1608.00 -36.71 22.18 22.08 22.06 22.06 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Leading Economic Index 178.30 177 173 167 162 136 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.1 56.54 57.21 55.86 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6748.00 6483 6403 6459 6484 6465 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -12.90 -9.83 -6.88 -4.45 -2.72 0.35 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.78 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 74 75 75 75 75 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 17 17 17 17 17 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 89.70 89.6 89.57 89.11 91.33 86.03 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.33 0.34 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.70 2.64 2.88 3.2 3.47 4.34 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11330.70 12002 12502 11612 11674 12343 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13688.50 13824 13906 13988 14064 14860 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.3 0.23 0.38 0.27 0.27 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.3 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.40 5.46 5.52 5.56 5.6 5.33 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 17.22 13.98 12.13 11.05 10.17 7.56 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8762.93 8895 8994 9068 9123 9186 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.55 3.69 3.77 3.87 5.13 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 46.30 47.09 47.51 47.89 48.16 49.14 [+]
Redbook Index 0.80 1.32 1.77 2.02 2.14 2.3 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.55 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.10 80.21 80.11 80.49 80.42 83.19 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4057.00 6363 6461 6518 6593 6656 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Building Permits 1086.00 1092 1105 1117 1128 1250 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1089.00 1131 1141 1151 1162 1213 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 511.00 531 475 517 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.40 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.27 1.3 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5330.00 5292 5256 5237 5221 5007 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.50 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.40 0.43 0.42 0.4 0.39 0.31 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 58.00 57.62 57.28 56.86 56.47 52.66 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.85 4.9 5.1 3.98 4.02 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -4.10 0.52 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.80 63.78 63.8 63.81 63.83 64.03 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 182.79 184 183 182 181 162 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 39.00 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 4/29/2016