United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 86.15 83.09 85.05 85.32 84.63 84.44 86.24 89.93 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.30 2.8 2.9 3 2.17 4.5 4 2.25 [+]
Stock Market 17195.42 17296 17524 17774 17635 18226 19428 20813 [+]
GDP Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 18300 18300 17436 17551 22000 25000 25000 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 3.96 1.67 2.98 2.59 2.77 2.77 2.77 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30 2.14 2.47 2.3 2.33 2.38 2.38 2.38 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16150.60 16141 16182 16239 16302 17378 18462 19337 [+]
Gross National Product 16189.80 16325 16337 16344 16343 16509 16188 16710 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46349 46454 46587 46715 49110 51440 53347 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2624.60 2658 2667 2673 2677 2683 2683 2683 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 51996 52114 52263 52407 55093 57707 59846 [+]
Labour Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.90 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.7 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 248.00 300 283 265 270 250 250 250 [+]
Government Payrolls 12.00 18.61 28.86 1.11 -4.34 17.61 17.61 17.61 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 236.00 226 240 250 256 220 220 220 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 4.00 11.75 8.83 8.97 8.16 12.07 12.05 12.05 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 287.00 350 273 265 267 285 285 286 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2384.00 2290 2166 2054 1950 2266 2528 3002 [+]
Adp Employment Change 213.00 216 218 241 208 220 207 218 [+]
Employed Persons 146600.00 147068 147292 147573 147813 160426 180415 152956 [+]
Unemployed Persons 9262.00 9355 9290 9150 8421 8809 9001 7928 [+]
Job Vacancies 4986.00 4498 5241 5515 5849 9120 4870 9147 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.02 1.63 1.22 1.08 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.35 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.70 12.06 11.82 11.65 11.42 12.08 12.14 12.14 [+]
Productivity 105.97 106 107 107 107 112 119 134 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.21 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.54 34.56 34.58 34.61 34.52 34.52 34.52 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.62 62.63 62.58 62.53 62.56 62.56 62.56 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 30477.00 50122 43262 35449 48663 49368 49390 49390 [+]
Wages 10.32 10.32 10.3 10.28 10.27 11.5 13.5 10.32 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.61 19.82 19.8 19.85 19.98 21.19 21.9 22.29 [+]
Labour Costs 105.09 106 107 107 107 108 109 110 [+]
Population 317.30 320 320 321 321 332 351 383 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Prices Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.95 2.12 2.26 2.36 2.7 2.7 2.7 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.46 0.71 0.75 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.63 238 240 241 242 267 313 404 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.7 1.8 1.82 1.87 2.26 2.76 1.82 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 238.67 240 241 242 243 266 307 391 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.57 109 110 110 110 115 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 111.20 112 112 112 113 122 134 148 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 1.91 2.15 2.34 2.49 3.05 3.06 3.06 [+]
Export Prices 132.10 131 131 131 131 133 133 135 [+]
Import Prices 138.60 138 138 138 138 140 140 142 [+]
Food Inflation 2.87 3.05 3.27 3.33 3.26 2.82 2.77 2.77 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 107.93 108 109 109 110 112 104 106 [+]
Pce Price Index 109.07 110 110 111 111 111 112 109 [+]
Money Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.35 3 4.5 3.25 [+]
Money Supply M0 4049181.00 4380054 4452807 4513418 4106490 5486040 5537118 4217370 [+]
Money Supply M1 2855.00 2955 3014 3193 3196 3931 4767 4951 [+]
Money Supply M2 11473.50 11673 11834 11820 12051 14021 23881 13339 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4450920.00 4212502 4461282 4474607 4481019 1659860 1059860 4488764 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 137054.00 145347 144177 144296 146467 145691 145713 145712 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7785.08 7903 7983 8053 8119 9308 11212 13957 [+]
Trade Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -40109.00 -42207 -42280 -42017 -41707 -42555 -41574 -42061 [+]
Exports 198459.00 198955 200342 200763 200018 199114 200328 202298 [+]
Imports 238568.00 241162 242622 242780 241726 241669 241902 244359 [+]
Current Account -98500.00 -97781 -98257 -99553 -100271 -98479 -98549 -98547 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.85 -1.78 -1.73 -1.68 -1.49 -1.48 -1.48 [+]
External Debt 16940277.00 -4395731 -4083002 -3883102 -4776648 -1098601 -915501 -4781204 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.27 98.91 98.85 97.41 97.87 94.21 95.21 97.66 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -117086.00 17379 13034 10427 8690 6517 5214 4345 [+]
Capital Flows 74547.00 40147 25663 26935 19877 -44140 38758 25565 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 52068.00 3065 8790 7469 3326 2460 2460 2460 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8648.00 9001 9219 9284 9261 12229 19556 9556 [+]
Government Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.8 -3.7 -3.5 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.06 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 102 102 103 101 104 101 101 [+]
Government Budget Value 105810.00 7983 -53357 35527 52079 17755 17755 17755 [+]
Government Spending 2913.00 2854 2848 2851 2853 2887 2901 2929 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 56.60 55.12 55.32 55.58 56.04 56 60 53.74 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.20 56.95 57.08 57.05 56.9 56.9 56.9 56.9 [+]
Services PMI 57.30 57.82 57.09 56.58 56.37 55.91 55.91 55.91 [+]
Industrial Production 4.30 4.85 5.03 5.04 4.81 4.62 4.43 4.42 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 0.4 0.42 0.4 0.28 0.38 0.38 0.38 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.70 4.33 4.54 4.6 4.38 4.19 3.94 3.94 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.31 79.51 79.59 79.63 79.42 78.93 79.06 79.32 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.47 0.13 0.09 0.1 0.04 0.12 0.12 0.12 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.30 1.07 2.54 2.33 2.83 1.04 1.04 1.04 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.60 58.48 58.9 59.89 59.79 58.33 58.31 58.31 [+]
Factory Orders -10.10 0.67 0.85 0.69 0.3 0.72 0.72 0.72 [+]
New Orders 502007.00 526546 530715 534402 530714 520099 517737 517745 [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.32 0.36 0.37 0.4 0.34 0.34 0.34 [+]
Changes in Inventories 62.80 64.98 65.12 69.92 76.23 79.94 65.95 80.11 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.70 0.58 0.5 0.4 0.36 0.64 0.54 0.57 [+]
Bankruptcies 30113.00 28534 28093 28247 27770 21000 23000 31663 [+]
Corporate Profits 2106.20 2161 1989 2141 2072 1989 1885 2073 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 95.30 96.73 96.35 96.48 96.55 96.19 96.22 96.22 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.17 19.04 25.6 25.73 23.18 17.27 17.41 17.41 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 20.70 25.86 27.74 30.28 28.52 25.31 25.37 25.37 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.43 17.46 17.6 17.57 17.69 17.89 17.89 17.89 [+]
Car Registrations 729.90 551 645 645 701 851 901 626 [+]
Composite Pmi 57.40 58.84 59.4 58.95 59.19 59.13 59.13 59.13 [+]
Consumer Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 86.90 86.48 88.57 89.71 86.75 86.76 86.75 86.75 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.34 0.64 0.45 0.16 0.7 0.6 0.29 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 4.69 4.99 5.05 4.95 4.63 4.62 4.62 [+]
Consumer Spending 10960.90 11032 11071 11107 11141 11555 11666 11783 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13134.10 13096 13160 13148 13477 14808 14154 26971 [+]
Personal Spending -0.20 0.3 0.36 0.35 0.18 0.3 0.3 0.3 [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.3 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.60 4.99 4.64 4.91 4.53 4.93 4.93 4.93 [+]
Consumer Credit 13.50 17.36 17.68 17.65 17.69 17.87 17.96 18.13 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.38 3.34 3.34 3.41 5.92 5.5 1.71 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 45.20 47.66 47.04 47.59 46.48 47.23 47.23 47.23 [+]
Redbook Index 4.40 3.54 4.46 4.11 4.4 4.34 4.34 4.34 [+]
Housing Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.50 0.09 0.07 0.02 -0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 [+]
Building Permits 1031.00 1049 1033 1039 1037 1054 1053 1053 [+]
Housing Starts 1017.00 1054 1040 1047 1063 1059 1058 1058 [+]
New Home Sales 467.00 483 475 481 484 506 506 506 [+]
Pending Home Sales 1.00 19.6 14.7 11.76 9.8 7.35 5.88 4.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5170.00 5060 5085 5177 5237 4990 5157 5159 [+]
Construction Spending -0.80 -0.47 0.03 -0.13 -0.19 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 54.00 52.99 53.81 54.78 55.31 54.68 54.71 54.71 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.13 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.04 6 6 4.11 [+]
Mortgage Applications -6.60 4.69 -2.82 0.45 -4.15 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Taxes Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 46 33 33 58 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 [+]





This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 11/1/2014