United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.10 2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -45240.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 100.06 105 110 115 120 115 [+]
Stock Market 19799.85 19500 19300 19100 18900 15900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.40 2.59 2.62 2.64 3.2 3.05 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18036.65 19200 19200 19200 19200 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16727.00 16900 17000 17080 17270 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16897.40 16983 17068 17154 17240 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2779.30 2743 2735 2729 2725 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51638.10 52400 52400 52400 52800 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52704.20 53060 53060 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 160.10 167 172 169 170 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 784.90 788 785 778 766 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2181.00 2159 2149 2142 2132 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 271.60 196 196 325 208 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2402.20 2423 2439 2452 2463 2541 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12875.60 13100 13100 13180 13600 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 565.90 572 579 576 576 556 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 293.90 264 264 279 271 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.70 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 156.00 180 145 165 160 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 144.00 139 134 129 125 110 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 12.00 11 10 13.62 13 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 17.00 8 5 -13.66 -10 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 234.00 247 247 247 247 247 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2046.00 2201 2238 2252 2256 2259 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 153.00 167 164 164 164 164 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 152111.00 152420 152699 152948 153168 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7529.00 7223 7121 7097 7134 8199 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.40 0.31 0.25 0.21 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.30 34.28 34.26 34.26 34.25 34.25 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.73 62.74 62.74 62.75 62.82 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.28 1.25 1.87 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.00 9.98 9.88 9.8 9.74 9.54 percent [+]
Productivity 106.90 106 106 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.70 112 112 112 113 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5246.00 5483 5512 5526 5538 5558 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5522.00 5338 5241 5155 5077 4452 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 33627.00 31908 30595 30464 30167 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.80 21.95 22.25 22.45 22.72 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 3.52 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.73 20.85 21.11 21.36 21.61 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.55 0.53 0.55 0.54 0.54 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -0.30 -1.1 -0.6 0.7 1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 322 323 323 324 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3985 3956 3950 3968 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2710.00 2751 2729 2741 2734 2736 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1675 1667 1671 1669 1670 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27895.00 27759 27761 27761 27761 27761 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 124248.00 124499 124682 124837 124969 125592 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.70 59.69 59.69 59.69 59.69 59.69 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10 2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 243.03 244 245 246 247 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 249.93 251 252 253 255 269 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.64 112 113 113 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 111 111 112 113 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.10 121 121 121 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 121.40 120 119 119 119 116 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.20 0.2 0.5 1 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 111.47 112 112 112 117 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.93 113 113 113 114 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 196.25 195 195 195 195 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 1 1.25 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.04 0.96 0.96 1 1.2 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3531576.00 3641791 3639559 3639177 3639540 3639418 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3320.70 3430 3487 3544 3601 4231 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13246.90 13495 13691 13886 14080 16382 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 118219.00 119648 119610 119612 119614 119615 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4414390.00 4432280 4434541 4434964 4435028 4435042 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15951700.00 15982945 15974657 15971786 15970829 15970351 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2099.67 2147 2174 2198 2219 2329 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.12 199 199 199 199 200 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -205.00 -39902 -38431 -38534 -38518 -38520 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -45240.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Exports 185833.00 184092 183559 190000 183213 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 231072.00 228500 229000 230000 231000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -112958.00 -109000 -109000 -111000 -112000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7781138.00 -7699252 -7561063 -7550645 -7620652 -7616720 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 100.06 100 100 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 23741.00 -36464 -24348 -15331 -11486 -8938 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 41776.00 38568 38973 39276 38267 34631 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 30757.00 24103 22890 23059 23104 23097 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8135 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8807.00 8780 8777 8778 8778 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.7 4.79 4.61 4.96 5.03 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5978189.00 4475399 4335128 4282711 4228090 4185517 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -27516.00 -51422 -40644 -43288 -47972 -32698 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2906.40 2911 2908 2909 2909 2879 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 319000.00 275286 267749 266543 265878 265649 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19976827.00 20287411 20554529 20818784 21080423 24025883 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 346720.00 309157 311420 312737 313179 313259 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 9327.00 10112 10126 10131 10135 10137 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 54.70 0 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.20 57 57.3 57.5 56.54 56.54 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.30 54.6 54.7 53.8 53 53 [+]
Services PMI 53.90 53.4 53.6 52.4 52.7 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 54.10 53.5 53.8 53.8 52 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.50 0.4 1.5 2 3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.80 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.20 0.4 1.8 2.1 2 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.46 75.9 75.8 75.9 76 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -4.60 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -6.60 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.31 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 0.33 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 458329.00 470315 469746 468034 465916 441262 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.40 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 7.10 69.14 69.32 42.83 70.07 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 1.00 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24457.00 23742 23358 23304 23112 23214 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1575.40 1584 1589 1598 1606 1700 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 105.80 106 106 101 95 97 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 63.80 57.25 56.65 57.87 57.24 57.41 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.50 12 12 9 8 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 15.50 1.4 2 2.1 3 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.27 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 23.60 23.9 16 12 9 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 8.00 12 10 6 4 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 54.60 53 54.74 53.5 54.8 54.8 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 18.43 18 18 18.5 19 21.4 Million [+]
Car Production 3.73 4 4 3.89 3.99 4.1 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 487.95 588 580 566 567 569 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 2.35 1.4 1.5 1 -0.5 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 5951.00 21.91 14.13 14.12 14.12 14.12 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -243.00 -117 -117 -117 -117 -117 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 179.83 182 183 185 186 195 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6226.00 6300 6320 6400 6470 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -2.80 -2.08 -1.01 -0.4 2 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.61 5.66 5.61 5.66 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 98.10 96.1 95.3 95 92 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.10 3.1 3 3.1 4.29 4.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 0.34 0.1 0.2 0.35 0.35 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11569.00 11734 11807 11880 11951 12564 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14225.10 14370 14478 14586 14695 15987 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.20 0.1 0.1 0.27 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.00 0.35 0.24 0.29 0.6 0.31 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 5.6 5.59 5.59 5.59 5.59 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 24.53 19.11 19.06 19.06 19.06 19.06 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9136.21 9307 9427 9542 9652 10655 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.64 3.75 4 3.5 4.25 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 55.60 51.32 50.08 49.57 49.37 49.22 [+]
Redbook Index 0.30 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.01 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.80 79.3 79.5 79.5 80 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 5754.00 4731 4781 4771 4773 4773 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Building Permits 1210.00 1152 1178 1150 1141 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1226.00 1210 1230 1190 1160 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 592.00 520 510 530 570 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -0.40 0.61 0.74 0.92 1.04 1.26 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5610.00 5000 4800 5000 5300 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.90 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.33 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 67.00 60 59 58 56 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.27 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.80 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.43 63.43 63.43 63.43 63.43 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 191.79 194 193 194 194 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 35 35 35 32 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 8.55 8.55 8.55 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 1/24/2017