United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 94.80 95 90 83.75 75.38 82.92 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.82 2 2.2 4.5 4 2.1 [+]
Stock Market 17678.70 17500 17000 20000 25000 23300 [+]
GDP Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 17444 18500 22000 25000 21580 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 5.00 1.67 1.75 2.32 2.33 2.33 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70 2.27 2.55 2.68 2.68 2.68 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16205.60 16340 16411 17419 18930 21241 [+]
Gross National Product 16399.30 16492 16556 17451 18957 21366 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46349 46451 48619 50675 52046 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2643.30 2679 2700 2734 2734 2734 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 51996 52114 54547 56854 58386 [+]
Labour Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5.31 5.5 5.63 7.09 5.72 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 252.00 328 306 294 294 294 [+]
Government Payrolls 12.00 23.48 2.18 11.67 11.67 11.67 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 240.00 294 294 272 272 272 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 17.00 22.54 13.73 21.17 21.14 21.14 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 307.00 279 279 275 301 275 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2443.00 2223 2160 2296 2516 2953 [+]
Adp Employment Change 241.00 238 267 235 232 233 [+]
Employed Persons 147442.00 147848 148673 160426 180415 169366 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8688.00 9290 9150 8809 9001 7159 [+]
Job Vacancies 4559.00 5313 5566 2949 2956 3502 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.80 1.67 1.74 1.5 1.3 1.61 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.40 12.22 12.04 12.07 12.1 12.1 [+]
Productivity 106.72 107 108 115 126 147 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings -0.20 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.01 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.61 34.64 34.58 34.58 34.58 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.74 62.72 62.65 62.65 62.65 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 32640.00 31885 22793 38519 38527 38527 [+]
Wages 10.40 10.39 10.37 11.5 15 10.39 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.80 19.72 19.77 20.85 21.67 22.07 [+]
Labour Costs 103.87 105 105 105 105 105 [+]
Population 317.30 320 320 332 351 381 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Job Offers 4972.00 5322 5564 6419 5600 6999 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.23 7.25 12 13 13 [+]
Prices Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate 0.80 0.75 0.83 2.34 3.75 4.56 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.40 -0.28 -0.19 0.46 0.3 0.72 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 236.14 237 238 262 305 391 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.60 1.8 1.82 2.26 2.76 1.43 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 239.33 240 240 234 224 215 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.60 109 110 116 117 117 [+]
Producer Prices 110.90 112 112 119 132 158 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.10 1.52 1.82 2.98 2.99 2.99 [+]
Export Prices 128.10 127 126 125 125 125 [+]
Import Prices 130.20 127 129 129 129 129 [+]
Food Inflation 3.40 3.94 4.21 3.64 3.49 3.5 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.12 109 109 114 105 110 [+]
Pce Price Index 109.01 110 110 111 111 111 [+]
Money Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.5 3 4.5 5.05 [+]
Money Supply M0 3934491.00 4452807 4513418 5486040 5537118 4107481 [+]
Money Supply M1 2906.50 3014 3193 3931 4767 4547 [+]
Money Supply M2 11625.40 11834 11820 14021 23881 12912 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4467681.00 4472747 4490649 1659860 1059860 4503724 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 133639.00 132319 130631 136652 132297 139047 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7915.13 8004 8085 9434 11591 15047 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15208.50 14905 15104 18400 23835 32825 [+]
Trade Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -39001.00 -41288 -41156 -41530 -40544 -40576 [+]
Exports 196357.00 199551 200385 197366 197750 197766 [+]
Imports 235359.00 240838 241541 238895 238294 238342 [+]
Current Account -100255.00 -100953 -100891 -100621 -100583 -100581 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -2.04 -2 -1.81 -1.81 -1.81 [+]
External Debt -6157895.00 -4083002 -3883102 -1098601 -915501 -6002838 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.37 98.85 97.41 94.21 95.21 97.44 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 40916.00 17379 40713 40846 40846 40846 [+]
Capital Flows -6341.00 25663 26935 -44140 38758 25941 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 33526.00 60115 62001 54279 54279 54279 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9046.00 9562 9748 12229 19556 10308 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6125343.00 5870359 5481993 4069562 4066655 4066655 [+]
Government Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.7 -3.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.19 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 102 103 104 101 107 [+]
Government Budget Value 1867.00 -59812 12467 -4049 -4049 -4049 [+]
Government Spending 2911.90 2896 2895 2897 2905 2903 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 55.50 55.32 55.58 56 60 52.32 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.70 54.71 55.43 54.87 54.87 54.87 [+]
Services PMI 54.00 54.66 55.23 55.18 55.18 55.18 [+]
Industrial Production 4.90 5.26 5.45 5.02 4.89 4.88 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.32 0.29 0.34 0.34 0.34 [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.90 5.09 5.34 4.78 4.58 4.58 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.74 80.02 80.09 79.65 79.76 79.77 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.05 0.34 0.33 0.36 0.36 0.36 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -3.40 -1.77 -2.31 -3.23 -3.23 -3.23 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.20 59.28 60.72 59.22 59.2 59.2 [+]
Factory Orders -0.70 -0.47 -0.7 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 [+]
New Orders 492736.00 508732 512195 505327 504461 504484 [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.11 0.09 0.1 0.1 0.1 [+]
Changes in Inventories 82.20 70.76 72.08 73.43 73.14 73.14 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.41 0.31 0.5 0.49 0.49 [+]
Bankruptcies 28319.00 28093 28247 21000 23000 27709 [+]
Corporate Profits 2170.70 1989 2141 1989 1885 2190 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 100.40 98.8 99.63 98.9 98.86 98.86 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.95 15.16 14.74 8.75 8.82 8.82 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 6.30 26.92 27.37 26.6 26.59 26.59 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.92 17.41 17.5 20.48 21.06 21.08 [+]
Car Registrations 615.50 645 645 851 901 594 [+]
Chicago Pmi 58.80 61.57 60.44 61.39 61.23 61.3 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.20 53.26 55.01 54.41 54.41 54.41 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 10.07 4.98 2.48 1.45 1.45 1.45 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -4.40 5.41 4.39 4.89 4.94 4.94 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.80 -0.55 -1.08 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 588.00 -2322 822 21.22 21.22 21.22 [+]
Ism New York Index 70.80 62.05 62.95 64.97 64.99 64.99 [+]
Leading Economic Index 159.22 160 161 164 164 164 [+]
Mining Production 11.12 8.5 6.72 0.92 0.9 0.9 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -216.00 -34.11 106 -87.55 -87.56 -87.56 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6.00 12.29 13.33 11.98 12.06 12.06 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.70 51.91 55.09 53.77 53.81 53.8 [+]
Consumer Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 98.20 95.49 98.76 94.68 94.65 94.65 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.90 0.64 0.45 0.7 0.6 0.74 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 4.81 4.9 4.5 4.49 4.49 [+]
Consumer Spending 10999.50 11066 11133 11679 11738 11739 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13155.90 13160 13148 14808 14154 26416 [+]
Personal Spending 0.60 0.44 0.44 0.53 0.53 0.53 [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.31 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 [+]
Personal Savings 4.40 5.28 5.49 5.42 5.42 5.42 [+]
Consumer Credit 14.10 16.65 16.57 16.6 16.6 16.6 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.34 3.34 5.92 5.5 3.29 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 51.50 48.13 49.25 48.76 48.77 48.77 [+]
Redbook Index 3.20 4.68 4.34 4.66 4.67 4.67 [+]
Chain Store Sales 553.00 570 573 565 565 565 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -1.00 -0.25 -0.37 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 [+]
Housing Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.80 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.46 [+]
Building Permits 1032.00 1062 1077 1037 1037 1039 [+]
Housing Starts 1089.00 1076 1085 1093 1094 1094 [+]
New Home Sales 481.00 451 453 473 473 473 [+]
Pending Home Sales 4.10 19.6 1.99 0.11 0.09 0.08 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5040.00 5184 5257 5289 5289 5289 [+]
Construction Spending -0.30 0.09 0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 57.00 59.11 61.61 89.49 97.84 98.56 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.80 4.2 4.2 6 6 4.03 [+]
Mortgage Applications 14.20 4.69 -2.82 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 173.36 174 178 172 164 163 [+]
Taxes Actual Q1/15 Q2/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 33 33 35 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23.69 23.86 25.16 25.24 25.24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.56 13.55 13.36 13.19 13.09 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 9.82 9.96 10.73 10.75 10.75 [+]