Markets Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Currency 96.93 97.31 96.52 95.97 95.43
Stock Market (points) 6846.57 6809 6513 6313 6119
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.10 4.18 4.09 4.03 3.97

Overview Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.40 1.8 1.1 0.9 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 130.00 50 70 90 80
Inflation Rate (%) 2.70 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.25 3.25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -56.83 -75 -50 -60 -68
Current Account (USD Billion) -226.40 -240 -220 -250 -270
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.40 52 51.3 50.7 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.60 49 51 54 50
Services PMI (points) 52.70 51 50.4 50.6 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.80 52 51.5 51 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 57.30 54 55 52 54
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1411.00 1380 1420 1360 1380
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.90 -3.7
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 124.30 127
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.40 -5.6

GDP Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.40 1.8 1.1 0.9 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24026.80 23949 24223 24459 24459
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24058.90 23968 24226 24492 24492
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4389.30 4407 4464 4468 4468
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 889.10 897 908 905 905
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 755.90 748 758 770 770
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 353.50 361 347 360 360
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 369.60 349 373 376 376
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17529.70 17448 17634 17845 17845
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2434.60 2377 2451 2478 2478
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2601.40 2669 2653 2648 2648
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 200.70 200 200 204 204
GDP (USD Billion) 29184.89 29856
GDP per Capita (USD) 66682.61 68216
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 75491.61 77228
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.80 2.3

Labour Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 130.00 50 70 90 80
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 172.00 70 80 85 80
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 227.00 230 240 220 200
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1862.00 1950 1970 2070 1940
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 22.00 80 85 75 90
Employed Persons (Thousand) 164520.00 163000 163200 162800 162500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7362.00 7400 7450 7560 7640
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.3
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.50 62.3 62.2 62.3 62.4
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.07 1.21 1.25 1.2 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.00 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.2
Productivity (points) 117.97 118 119 117 115
Labour Costs (points) 121.64 129 127 126 126
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6038.00 7050 6950 6890 6800
Job Offers (Thousand) 6542.00 7000 6850 6700 6650
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 108435.00 90000 85000 98000 73000
Wages (USD/Hour) 31.95 32.38 32.56 32.63 32.88
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 29.63 30.19 30.15 30.21 30.49
Wage Growth (%) 3.76 4.4 4 3.4 3.3
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.00 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.70 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 135797.00 133800 133200 133000 133900
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28743.00 28300 27900 27500 27600
Population (Million) 341.15 347

Prices Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Inflation Rate (%) 2.70 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 324.05 328 331 333 332
Core Consumer Prices (points) 331.86 334 336 339 340
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5
GDP Deflator (points) 129.43 131 131 133 133
Producer Prices (points) 151.47 153 153 154 156
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.00 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8
Export Prices (points) 154.10 151 150 150 149
Import Prices (points) 141.40 143 143 143 144
Food Inflation (%) 3.10 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7
Import Prices YoY (%) 0.00 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.9
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.20 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.50 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 3.30 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.80 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.80 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 326.03 326 328 329 330
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 351.07 352 356 358 360
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.10 3 2.9 3.1 3
CPI Transportation (points) 268.63 269 270 271 272

Money Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.5 3.25 3.25
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 22411.00 22800 23190 22870 22650
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6622382.00 6580000 6510000 6530000 6600000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 3.56 3.56 3.31 3.06 3.06
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.00 136

Trade Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -56.83 -75 -50 -60 -68
Current Account (USD Billion) -226.40 -240 -220 -250 -270
Exports (USD Billion) 292.05 250 260 240 260
Imports (USD Billion) 348.88 325 310 300 328
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13870.00 13400 13350 13400 13300
Tourist Arrivals 5353517.00 5310200 5490200 5521000 5580000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.90 -3.7

Business Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Manufacturing PMI (points) 52.40 52 51.3 50.7 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.60 49 51 54 50
Services PMI (points) 52.70 51 50.4 50.6 50
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.80 52 51.5 51 52
Composite PMI (points) 53.00 51 50.6 50.5 51
Industrial Production (%) 2.00 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 2.00 0.8 1 1.3 1
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.30 76.5 76.7 77 77.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2
Durable Goods Orders (%) 5.30 0.9 1.8 1.1 1.7
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 6.60 0.7 0.9 1 1.3
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.20 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3
Factory Orders (%) 2.70 0.8 1 0.3 1.4
Business Inventories (%) 0.10 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 24039.00 24500 25200 25100 25400
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3411.70 3200 3150 3100 2700
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 99.30 99 101 102 106
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 12.60 4 3 7 8
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 7.70 -1 -10 -9 -8
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.04 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -6.00 -2 -4 -1 2
Chicago PMI (points) 54.00 44 46 45 49
Car Registrations (Thousand) 190.20 210 200 220 180
Car Production (Million Units) 9.68 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.8
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 14.90 15 14.9 14.7 15
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -2.00 2 -3 -1 4

Consumer Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Consumer Confidence (points) 57.30 54 55 52 54
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.00 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 2.40 2.4 2.5 2 2.5
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16585.90 16624 16758 16884 16884
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 23094.90 21700 21600 21500 22100
Personal Spending (%) 0.50 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
Personal Income (%) 0.30 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 3.50 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.9
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 24.05 3 7 5 9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 48.80 53 52 50 54
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.00 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.8 0.82

Housing Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Building Permits (Thousand) 1411.00 1380 1420 1360 1380
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1246.00 1420 1380 1290 1400
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 737.00 660 650 620 610
Pending Home Sales (%) -3.00 1.7 2.3 2 0.8
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 3910.00 4100 3800 3900 3700
Construction Spending (%) 0.50 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 37.00 42 48 52 51
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.21 6.2 6.1 6 6.3
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 1.40 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 337.27 344 348 343 343

Energy Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Crude Oil Rigs 412.00 420 430 435 440

Government Actual Q1/26 Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 124.30 127
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.40 -5.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 39.70 41.4