United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -44262.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Currency 101.28 105 110 115 120 115 [+]
Stock Market 20821.76 19500 19300 19100 18900 15900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.31 2.59 2.62 2.64 3.2 3.05 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 2.5 2.1 2 1.9 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18036.65 19200 19200 19200 19200 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16804.80 16900 17000 17080 17270 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16897.40 16983 17068 17154 17240 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2807.90 2743 2735 2729 2725 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51638.10 52400 52400 52400 52800 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52704.20 53060 53060 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 160.10 167 172 169 170 169 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 784.90 788 785 778 766 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2181.00 2159 2149 2142 2132 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 271.60 196 196 325 208 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2402.20 2423 2439 2452 2463 2541 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12875.60 13100 13100 13180 13600 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 565.90 572 579 576 576 556 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 293.90 264 264 279 271 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 227.00 180 145 165 160 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 237.00 203 202 202 202 202 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -10.00 11 10 11 13 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 5.00 8 5 8.81 10 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 244.00 242 242 242 242 242 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2060.00 2051 2035 2029 2027 2026 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 246.00 236 233 235 164 150 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 152081.00 152258 152484 152690 152872 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7635.00 7572 7551 7532 7518 7473 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.24 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.39 34.39 34.39 34.4 34.4 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.88 62.85 62.85 62.85 62.85 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.16 1.11 1.06 1.28 0.97 0.57 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.10 9.98 9.89 9.81 9.75 9.56 percent [+]
Productivity 107.40 106 106 108 108 111 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 111.10 112 112 112 113 117 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5040.00 5100 5181 5210 5229 5288 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5501.00 5465 5446 5433 5424 5391 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 45934.00 40090 39422 40515 40152 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.84 21.95 22.25 22.45 22.72 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 3.57 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.70 20.85 21.11 21.36 21.61 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.55 0.53 0.55 0.54 0.54 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.30 1.1 0.6 0.7 1 0.5 [+]
Population 324.30 322 323 323 324 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3985 3956 3950 3968 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1672 1633 1641 1640 1640 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1391 1380 1373 1369 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27405.00 27506 27539 27536 27536 27536 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 124705.00 124900 125203 125442 125639 126457 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.90 59.92 59.99 60.03 60.07 60.18 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 244.16 245 246 248 249 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 250.78 252 253 255 256 273 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 112.23 112 113 113 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 111.90 112 112 113 114 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.40 121 121 122 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 122.20 122 122 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.20 0.2 0.5 1 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 111.65 112 112 112 117 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 112.06 113 113 113 114 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 199.29 201 200 199 199 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.05 1.05 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3595455.00 3638128 3664985 3666181 3669317 3669145 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3396.20 3422 3486 3545 3602 4243 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13270.10 13373 13539 13712 13888 15971 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 117332.00 119648 119610 119612 119614 119615 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4424490.00 4434873 4443410 4445137 4445401 4445459 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16138600.00 16161414 16207212 16221813 16226663 16229077 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2100.46 2108 2114 2120 2125 2151 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.12 199 199 199 199 200 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -21900.00 -33908 -30330 -30635 -30545 -30557 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Balance of Trade -44262.00 -38500 -38000 -40000 -40000 -48000 USD Million [+]
Exports 190688.00 192031 193127 190000 193935 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 234950.00 228500 229000 230000 231000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -112958.00 -109000 -109000 -111000 -112000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7781138.00 -7699252 -7561063 -7550645 -7620652 -7616720 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.82 100 100 100 101 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -42795.00 -34818 -20776 -12831 -9217 -5788 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 41776.00 38568 38973 39276 38267 34631 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -12872.00 19751 18692 18331 18446 18467 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8135 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8904.00 8979 9008 9079 9099 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.7 4.79 4.61 4.96 5.03 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6193106.00 6301739 6305803 6307168 6306514 6306418 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 105 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -51257.00 -49201 -50620 -56187 -57518 -56933 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2914.90 2911 2908 2909 2909 2879 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 344609.00 259943 267587 272647 272448 272163 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19937261.00 20104493 20336875 20564088 20788650 23297988 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 292812.00 320160 317014 317716 318376 318713 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 36.02 34.42 32.82 31.22 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 9327.00 10112 10126 10131 10135 10137 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 56.00 57 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.50 57 57.3 57.5 56.58 56.58 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.30 54.6 54.7 53.8 53 53 [+]
Services PMI 53.90 53.4 53.6 52.4 52.7 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 54.30 53.5 53.8 53.8 52 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.00 0.4 1.5 2 3 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.30 0.4 1.8 2.1 2 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.30 75.9 75.8 75.9 76 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -0.40 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 1.70 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.31 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 2.10 0.89 0.47 0.33 0.28 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 464868.00 466348 467230 467567 467692 467765 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.30 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 48.70 69.14 69.32 42.83 70.07 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 1.00 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24114.00 23742 23358 23304 23112 23214 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1575.40 1584 1589 1598 1606 1700 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 105.90 106 106 101 95 97 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 57.70 56.3 55.53 56.25 55.95 56.02 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.70 12 12 9 8 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 22.10 16 15 14.3 14 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.05 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 43.30 23.9 16 12 9 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 12.00 12 10 6 4 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 50.30 54.5 54.7 55 54.8 54.8 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.61 18.5 19 15 14 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.25 3.89 3.92 3.86 3.61 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 553.65 596 585 563 563 564 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 0.56 1.4 1.5 1 -0.5 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2628.00 -20.03 39.36 39.44 39.44 39.44 Thousand Barrels [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -89.00 -97.08 -97.08 -97.08 -97.08 -97.08 Billion cf [+]
Leading Economic Index 180.69 182 183 185 186 195 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6874.00 6300 6320 6400 6470 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 0.40 -0.1 -0.14 -0.14 2 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 7 7 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.61 5.66 5.61 5.66 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 96.30 96.1 95.3 95 92 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.32 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.60 3.1 3 3.1 5.71 5.72 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.80 0.33 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11640.40 11734 11807 11880 11951 12564 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14281.20 14384 14494 14603 14712 16013 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.50 0.1 0.1 0.27 0.4 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.30 0.35 0.24 0.29 0.6 0.31 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.40 5.54 5.51 5.52 5.51 5.51 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 14.16 18.89 18.97 18.98 18.99 18.99 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9128.74 9177 9263 9342 9417 10062 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.75 3.75 4 3.71 4.25 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 56.40 54.77 52.32 51.27 50.82 50.5 [+]
Redbook Index 1.10 0.92 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.80 79.3 79.5 79.5 80 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 8741.00 4541 5101 4957 4986 4981 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Building Permits 1285.00 1152 1178 1150 1141 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1246.00 1210 1230 1190 1160 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 555.00 520 510 530 570 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 0.30 0.61 0.74 0.92 1.04 1.26 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5690.00 5000 4800 5000 5300 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.20 0.8 0.9 2 1.9 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 65.00 60 59 58 56 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.36 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -2.00 0.42 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.70 63.42 63.15 63.47 63.58 63.45 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 192.14 194 193 194 194 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 35 35 35 32 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 8.55 8.55 8.55 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 2/25/2017