United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2030 Outlook

Markets Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Currency 84.32 85 85 81.56 81.59 79.43 79.44 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.62 2.8 2.9 3 3.5 4.2 4 [+]
Stock Market 17265.99 16875 16795 16802 16825 19664 21745 [+]
GDP Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
GDP 16800.00 18300 18300 17436 32286 22000 25000 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 4.20 3 2.8 2.8 3 3.1 3.1 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.50 1.8 2.31 2.29 2.32 2.72 2.72 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 15994.30 16145 16145 16104 20648 20662 24414 [+]
Gross National Product 16180.70 16325 16338 16344 18567 19836 21985 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 45904 46315 46373 52881 48000 53000 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2586.30 22630 2646 2653 2639 2602 2594 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 45900 51958 52022 59324 52000 65000 [+]
Labour Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Unemployment Rate 6.10 6 5.9 6 5.5 5.6 5.7 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 142.00 300 300 247 225 220 220 [+]
Government Payrolls 8.00 -5.46 19.79 30 18.64 18.83 18.83 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 134.00 229 204 216 202 201 201 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 0.00 13.92 17.37 15.11 15.99 16.29 16.35 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 280.00 350 285 279 288 295 296 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2429.00 2328 2256 2235 2282 2448 2423 [+]
Adp Employment Change 204.00 199 214 215 207 215 206 [+]
Employed Persons 146368.00 147068 147068 147866 182908 160426 180415 [+]
Unemployed Persons 9591.00 9355 9290 9150 8990 8809 9001 [+]
Job Vacancies 4712.00 4578 4283 4958 5122 6323 5930 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.02 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 3 3.5 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.60 12.27 11.59 11.25 10.64 7.74 9.24 [+]
Productivity 106.50 108 99.87 99.37 98.82 128 140 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.2 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.52 34.5 34.52 34.51 34.49 34.49 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 106.50 91.3 98.66 105 118 159 163 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 40010.00 52714 56853 50711 55452 55146 55192 [+]
Wages 10.29 10.32 10.32 10.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.60 19.69 19.82 19.79 20.08 20.96 21.55 [+]
Labour Costs 106.50 103 103 103 103 103 103 [+]
Population 317.30 317 320 321 322 332 351 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 [+]
Prices Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Inflation Rate 1.70 2 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.3 2.93 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.2 0.07 0.14 0.02 0.76 1.26 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.42 241 243 245 255 355 500 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.7 1.8 1.82 1.8 2.56 3.31 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 238.34 240 241 242 260 360 510 [+]
Gdp Deflator 108.23 109 110 110 111 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 111.30 112 112 113 116 125 138 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 2.15 2.27 2.18 1.84 3.4 3.58 [+]
Export Prices 132.40 133 134 134 132 133 133 [+]
Import Prices 138.80 139 140 140 139 139 139 [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 2.84 2.95 2.93 2.38 3.01 1.8 [+]
Money Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 3 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 3989063.00 4380054 4452807 4513418 4832980 5486040 5537118 [+]
Money Supply M1 2834.80 2955 3014 3193 3220 3931 4767 [+]
Money Supply M2 11351.40 11673 11834 11820 12104 14021 23881 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4375964.00 4212502 4837494 4911112 4950822 1659860 1059860 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145176.00 145548 144709 143468 145237 145185 145197 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7772.55 7886 7973 8065 8128 8099 7875 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 14792.09 14930 14954 14956 14950 14848 14652 [+]
Trade Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Balance of Trade -40546.00 -43722 -43301 -43482 -51079 -59573 -72091 [+]
Exports 198023.00 197182 198114 199172 245386 272146 337814 [+]
Imports 238568.00 240903 241416 242654 296465 331719 409905 [+]
Current Account -98500.00 -104533 -104757 -105531 -104182 -103573 -103500 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.93 -2.25 -1.78 -1.65 -0.1 -0.05 [+]
External Debt -4782773.00 3826218 2869664 2295731 1434832 1147866 956555 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.51 98.91 98.85 97.41 96.54 94.21 95.21 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -117086.00 17379 17379 56201 35126 28101 23417 [+]
Capital Flows 57700.00 40147 25663 26935 37669 -44140 38758 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows -18600.00 -17248 -12450 -12779 -16335 -16493 -16493 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8531.00 8821 8972 8966 9137 12229 15299 [+]
Government Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Government Budget -4.10 -3.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3 -1.5 -1.5 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 102 102 103 103 104 101 [+]
Government Budget Value -129000.00 -28130 -95996 -10961 -32974 -32912 -32912 [+]
Government Spending 2878.70 2861 2852 2845 3649 4143 5294 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Business Confidence 59.00 55.12 55.32 55.58 54.67 56 60 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.90 54.3 54.3 55.45 55.4 53.93 53.93 [+]
Services PMI 59.50 55.74 56.77 55.73 55.58 55.57 55.57 [+]
Industrial Production 4.12 4.94 5.1 5.05 4.4 4.01 4.43 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.15 1.94 3.44 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.62 4.23 4.4 4.43 3.89 4.03 3.81 [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.80 79.5 79.57 79.62 79.36 79.07 79.14 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.39 0.14 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17 [+]
Durable Goods Orders 22.60 9.47 8.92 10.58 8 8.05 8.05 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.60 57.39 57.77 58.04 58 57.63 57.62 [+]
Factory Orders 10.50 4.04 5.16 5.41 4.57 4.66 4.66 [+]
New Orders 503238.00 502660 502379 501925 496191 498340 497077 [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.43 0.46 0.45 0.39 0.41 0.43 [+]
Changes in Inventories 93.40 64.98 65.12 69.92 81.16 79.94 65.95 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.64 0.58 0.49 0.61 0.62 0.62 [+]
Bankruptcies 30113.00 28534 28093 28247 29526 21000 23000 [+]
Corporate Profits 2097.00 2161 1989 2141 2240 1989 1885 [+]
Nfib Business Optimism Index 96.10 96.75 96.27 96.31 96 96.09 96.12 [+]
Ny Empire State Manufacturing Index 27.54 20.27 26.32 25.54 16.68 16.76 17.02 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 22.50 24.31 24.91 26.59 22.13 22.46 22.51 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.53 16.97 17.59 17.75 18.16 18.06 18.06 [+]
Car Registrations 729.90 551 645 645 701 851 901 [+]
Leading Economic Index 103.50 105 105 106 106 106 106 [+]
Consumer Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Consumer Confidence 84.60 83.14 83.19 84.42 83.13 83.05 83.05 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.58 0.34 0.64 0.45 0.33 1 1.15 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 5.00 4.11 4.33 4.41 4.26 4.15 4.15 [+]
Consumer Spending 10910.40 10995 11045 11086 14356 16296 20792 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13021.20 13096 13160 13148 13456 14808 14154 [+]
Personal Spending -0.10 0.13 0.23 0.31 0.25 0.25 0.25 [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.32 0.32 0.42 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 4.15 4.52 4.13 4.5 0.1 0.05 [+]
Consumer Credit 26.01 28.42 24.44 22.7 27.24 27.44 27.44 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.38 3.34 3.34 3.58 5.92 6 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 45.20 46.23 47.73 47.01 47.04 47.2 47.21 [+]
Redbook Index 3.60 3.54 4.26 3.9 4.17 4.16 4.16 [+]
Housing Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Housing Index 0.40 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 [+]
Building Permits 998.00 1044 1026 1030 1051 1044 1044 [+]
Housing Starts 956.00 1050 1034 1038 1067 1047 1047 [+]
New Home Sales 412.00 441 461 448 467 467 467 [+]
Pending Home Sales -2.10 19.6 14.7 11.76 7.35 5.88 4.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5150.00 4612 4377 4271 4294 4350 4350 [+]
Construction Spending 1.80 -0.59 -0.97 -0.43 -0.81 -0.83 -0.83 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 59.00 51.78 52.23 52.87 53.53 53.07 53.09 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.36 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.7 5.45 [+]
Mortgage Applications 7.90 4.69 -2.82 0.45 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Taxes Last Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 2020 2030
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 40 35 35 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 33 33 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23 23 23 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 10 10 10 10 11 11 [+]






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This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 9/20/2014