United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 97.41 103 99 154 149 97.05 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.87 2.2 2.5 4.5 4 4.1 [+]
Stock Market 18105.77 17500 17000 20000 25000 30000 [+]
GDP Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 18500 17677 22000 25000 38469 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 2.81 3.13 2.27 2.27 2.27 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.40 2.42 2.42 2.68 2.68 2.68 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16294.70 16472 16576 19357 24286 29184 [+]
Gross National Product 16454.70 16652 16756 18332 26206 36410 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46584 46712 48619 50675 52046 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2672.80 2758 2713 3202 3702 4236 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 52263 52407 54547 56854 58386 [+]
Labour Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.50 5.5 5.4 6.5 6.1 6.55 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 126.00 324 292 223 393 284 [+]
Government Payrolls -3.00 18.24 -2.86 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 129.00 312 319 236 236 236 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -1.00 23.61 15.25 12.82 12.91 12.91 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 294.00 283 287 276 285 278 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2268.00 2269 2317 2429 2601 2946 [+]
Adp Employment Change 189.00 251 267 215 207 208 [+]
Employed Persons 148331.00 148877 149343 160426 180415 227009 [+]
Unemployed Persons 8575.00 9150 8700 8809 9352 9501 [+]
Job Vacancies 4879.00 4966 4931 5871 6024 6018 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.5 1.41 1.64 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.30 11.73 11.32 9.1 8.1 8.91 [+]
Productivity 106.40 106 106 109 113 121 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.62 34.67 34.59 34.6 34.6 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.79 62.79 66.7 66.9 65.66 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 36594.00 31416 21732 39929 44593 38992 [+]
Wages 10.55 10.5 10.39 11.5 15.39 18.45 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.71 19.9 19.9 23.62 25.69 27.69 [+]
Labour Costs 104.91 105 105 107 110 113 [+]
Population 318.86 320 321 333 354 393 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Job Offers 5133.00 5104 5304 6183 7362 6151 [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 12 13 14 [+]
Wage Growth 4.92 5.05 5.1 5.49 5.53 5.53 [+]
Prices Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate -0.10 0.24 0.46 1.64 3.34 3.31 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.44 0.38 0.46 0.3 -0.24 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 235.74 237 238 261 304 391 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 1.82 1.82 2.26 2.76 1.61 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 240.79 242 243 274 295 331 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.64 108 109 125 155 179 [+]
Producer Prices 109.70 109 109 117 132 151 [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.80 0.82 0.08 2.41 2.47 2.47 [+]
Export Prices 125.90 126 125 140 135 125 [+]
Import Prices 125.80 127 128 128 128 128 [+]
Food Inflation 2.30 3 3.23 3.16 3.14 3.16 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 108.36 109 109 123 146 168 [+]
Pce Price Index 108.48 109 109 120 130 150 [+]
Money Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.5 0.5 3 4.5 5 [+]
Money Supply M0 4030561.00 4513418 4259904 5486040 5537118 4335783 [+]
Money Supply M1 2988.00 3193 3105 3931 4767 6207 [+]
Money Supply M2 11846.00 11820 12145 14021 23881 13435 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4448809.00 4451651 4447828 1659860 1059860 4448322 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124717.00 122232 120922 124728 124042 124039 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8119.00 8260 8375 9853 12361 16536 [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 15260.84 15376 15574 19053 25064 34965 [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -6305.00 -4866 -3279 7498 9722 9806 [+]
Trade Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -35444.00 -30662 -29024 -32429 -35166 -37812 [+]
Exports 186249.00 178885 177518 214808 254820 294817 [+]
Imports 221693.00 209547 206542 247237 289986 332006 [+]
Current Account -113451.00 -110014 -112306 -109084 -109252 -109242 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.2 -2.4 -2 -1.8 -2 [+]
External Debt -6915258.00 -6083101 -5864843 -8098600 -7155000 -6998752 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.12 97.41 96.99 94.21 95.21 97.18 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 42670.00 42732 42751 48767 52767 62767 [+]
Capital Flows 4138.00 26935 26935 -44140 38758 -28137 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 9799.00 38004 39061 26094 26094 26094 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 9185.00 9160 9026 12229 19556 22348 [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6212971.00 601845 6179826 7086871 8083009 7083008 [+]
Government Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.5 -2.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.19 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 103 103 104 101 96.8 [+]
Government Budget Value -52910.00 -24333 -18346 -55889 -55889 -55889 [+]
Government Spending 2897.90 2914 2929 2881 2940 2902 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Government Debt 18152056.00 18152056 18152056 18152056 18152056 18152056 [+]
Business Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 51.50 55.58 55.58 56 60 58.25 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.70 55.79 56 55.48 55.48 55.48 [+]
Services PMI 59.20 58.6 55.61 56.03 56.03 56.03 [+]
Industrial Production 2.05 5.19 5.36 3.68 3.72 3.72 [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.60 0.2 0.15 -0.23 -0.24 -0.24 [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.40 5.42 5.76 3.95 3.91 3.91 [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.37 79.79 79.79 79 78.97 78.97 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.11 0.3 0.29 0.14 0.15 0.15 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.40 -0.05 -0.44 -2.69 -2.69 -2.69 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.50 57.77 58.97 57.37 57.36 57.36 [+]
Factory Orders 0.20 -1.57 -2.13 -1.33 -1.33 -1.33 [+]
New Orders 468314.00 463595 460928 477805 471982 464648 [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 -0.03 -0.1 0.01 0.01 0.01 [+]
Changes in Inventories 80.00 81.3 81.78 79.39 79.38 79.37 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.30 0.2 0.07 0.49 0.21 0.38 [+]
Bankruptcies 26983.00 28247 23414 21000 23000 26503 [+]
Corporate Profits 2140.30 2101 2101 2489 2885 3190 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 95.20 98.51 99.61 98.53 98.5 98.5 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.19 9.16 8.4 0.14 0.33 0.33 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 7.50 6.92 11.84 8.56 8.6 8.6 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.15 16.96 16.87 17.22 17.22 17.22 [+]
Car Registrations 526.10 645 653 851 901 962 [+]
Chicago Pmi 46.30 55.91 53.16 49.94 49.94 49.94 [+]
Composite Pmi 59.20 58.17 59.17 57.49 57.49 57.49 [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 1.29 6.88 5.55 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -17.40 -5.41 -3.23 -9.87 -9.75 -9.75 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.00 0.34 0.34 0.34 [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 0.18 -0.3 -0.89 -0.88 -0.88 [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2072.00 -1690 674 57.22 57.22 57.22 [+]
Ism New York Index 50.00 57.44 57.69 58.6 58.59 58.59 [+]
Leading Economic Index 161.17 163 164 166 166 166 [+]
Mining Production 3.70 2.97 2.49 0.76 0.75 0.75 [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 63.00 -45 69.82 -99.6 -99.6 -99.6 [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 8.05 8.21 2.16 2.18 2.18 [+]
Small Business Sentiment 58.90 49.81 58.63 53.55 53.7 53.71 [+]
Consumer Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 95.90 91.2 99.28 98.85 98.84 98.84 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.90 0.45 0.45 0.7 0.6 0.71 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.30 3.61 3.4 2.45 2.48 2.48 [+]
Consumer Spending 11119.60 11312 11396 18209 22211 28199 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13319.80 13148 13535 18154 24154 26626 [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.12 0.12 0.12 [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.80 5.42 5.44 5.61 5.61 5.61 [+]
Consumer Credit 15.50 16.01 16.38 15.7 15.7 15.7 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.34 3.43 5.92 5.5 3.32 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 51.30 47.42 49.13 49.01 49.01 49.01 [+]
Redbook Index 1.10 4.3 3.17 3.47 3.47 3.47 [+]
Chain Store Sales 585.60 564 564 549 549 549 [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.65 0.71 0.65 0.73 0.78 0.73 [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40 -0.48 -0.72 -0.53 -0.52 -0.52 [+]
Housing Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.30 0.46 0.44 0.51 0.51 0.51 [+]
Building Permits 1039.00 1071 1087 1251 1491 1391 [+]
Housing Starts 926.00 1010 1002 1213 1284 1484 [+]
New Home Sales 539.00 471 480 610 710 760 [+]
Pending Home Sales 12.00 8.47 11.05 11.45 11.44 11.44 [+]
Existing Home Sales 4880.00 5184 5257 5615 6116 6316 [+]
Construction Spending -0.10 0.2 0.13 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 56.00 54.11 60.14 57.92 58.04 61.46 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.87 4 4.2 6 6 4.82 [+]
Mortgage Applications -2.30 4.69 -2.82 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 172.94 177 179 192 197 205 [+]
Taxes Actual Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 35 35 40 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 36 36 35 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23.55 23.58 25.16 25.24 25.24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.64 13.64 13.36 13.19 13.09 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 8.9 8.55 10.73 10.75 10.75 [+]