United States | Economic Forecasts | 2016-2020 Outlook

Overview Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -41144.00 -44700 -40600 -40700 -40600 -48600 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Currency 97.20 95.94 96.07 96.04 95.99 95.46 [+]
Stock Market 18474.00 17500 17300 17100 17100 14200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.57 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.77 2.04 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 17947.00 18400 18400 18900 18900 20243 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16514.60 16800 16900 17000 17100 16700 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 16640.60 16900 17000 17100 17100 16800 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2760.60 2730 2720 2710 2700 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51486.00 52000 52000 52400 52400 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52549.01 52930 52930 53060 53060 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 182.20 169 174 171 168 162 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 761.20 770 770 767 760 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2159.00 2152 2144 2132 2118 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 215.20 218 200 196 196 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2356.50 2397 2409 2422 2438 2535 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12556.10 12800 13000 13100 13100 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 534.10 535 535 533 532 512 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 285.00 259 262 264 264 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 287.00 189 180 190 170 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 265.00 151 137 132 128 109 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 22.00 13 12 11 10 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 14.00 14 9 8 5 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 253.00 264 275 284 293 356 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2128.00 2157 2220 2274 2329 2752 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 172.00 158 141 128 116 60.9 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 151097.00 151079 151068 151040 151004 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7783.00 7930 7766 7810 7874 8522 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.37 34.39 34.37 34.37 34.37 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.7 62.72 62.71 62.71 62.8 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.25 1.19 1.2 1.23 1.28 2.02 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.70 10.82 10.94 11.07 11.19 12.18 percent [+]
Productivity 105.86 106 106 106 106 105 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 109.67 111 112 112 113 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5499.00 5438 5416 5359 5289 4648 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5500.00 5495 5395 5302 5216 4433 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 38536.00 46555 52384 55015 57994 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.51 21.64 21.83 21.85 21.87 26.1 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.60 4.75 4.83 4.91 4.98 5.4 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.37 20.42 20.61 20.65 20.85 25.21 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.60 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.65 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index -1.90 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 [+]
Population 321.57 323 324 325 325 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 4082 4033 3985 3956 3973 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1830 1826 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 2710.00 2751 2729 2741 2734 2736 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1675 1667 1671 1669 1670 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27445.00 27567 27558 27551 27542 27429 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 123586.00 123681 123786 123821 123814 122947 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 59.60 59.57 59.55 59.54 59.54 59.51 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 239.93 241 242 243 244 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 247.50 249 250 251 252 263 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.39 111 111 111 111 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.70 111 111 111 111 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 120.90 122 122 122 122 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 120.50 120 119 119 119 115 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.30 2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 110.43 113 111 111 111 121 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.02 112 112 113 113 116 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 200.26 200 198 198 198 192 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Interest Rate 0.50 0.5 0.75 0.75 0.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.73 0.65 0.85 0.84 0.84 2.39 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3825373.00 3961740 4057722 4155510 4255171 5883611 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3242.40 3312 3364 3405 3436 3497 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 12807.60 13008 13191 13353 13496 14338 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 119190.00 118410 117777 117188 116621 109533 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4429770.00 4416988 4390775 4367621 4342634 4018056 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16008000.00 15984275 15983514 15980967 15978387 15942131 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2056.93 2083 2101 2116 2126 2077 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 197.51 198 198 198 197 194 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -18295.00 -12275 -9521 -6875 -3536 9997 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Balance of Trade -41144.00 -44700 -40600 -40700 -40600 -48600 USD Million [+]
Exports 182354.00 178000 183000 183000 182000 198000 USD Million [+]
Imports 223498.00 223000 223000 223000 223000 246000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -124671.00 -112130 -126000 -126000 -126000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -2.65 -2.81 -2.85 -2.88 -2.83 percent [+]
External Debt -7525643.00 -7442546 -7336290 -7253380 -7132648 -6315365 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.60 99.47 99.73 99.87 100 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -11017.00 -39429 -23763 -10767 -2614 22507 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 35823.00 36055 34898 34693 34126 30731 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 41139.00 26800 25602 22658 22883 23967 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8135 8135 8135 8136 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 8933.00 8928 8912 8897 8882 7310 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6331536.00 4530000 4320000 4210000 4170000 4160000 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.61 4.6 4.61 4.61 4.61 4.61 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 106 106 108 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.50 -3.78 -3.81 -3.86 -3.91 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 6252.00 39854 -6229 -28516 -24752 -25982 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2878.90 2893 2896 2901 2905 2903 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 329572.00 335514 309130 294903 294534 276219 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19381591.00 19509067 19630869 19714623 19772025 19752636 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 323320.00 316939 319308 314986 315025 310748 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 38.10 38.24 38.09 37.94 37.91 37.44 percent [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 587037 589261 591485 592472 611394 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 10535.00 17700 10094 10024 9953 9026 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Business Confidence 53.20 52 52.1 53 53.1 52 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.50 56 55 57 57.3 54.47 percent [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.90 51 52 53 54 53 [+]
Services PMI 50.90 51 52 53.1 53.1 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 51.50 53.13 53.96 54.5 54.77 55.11 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.70 -0.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.40 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 75.40 75.85 76.39 76.86 75.5 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -2.20 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.90 0.27 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.32 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 -0.02 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 0.34 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.25 percent [+]
New Orders 455239.00 453689 451409 449154 446947 421754 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -1.00 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 68.30 68.18 63.32 69.14 69.32 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 24797.00 26103 27160 28341 29507 44342 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1388.50 1377 1358 1351 1345 1276 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 94.50 94.84 95.11 95.4 95.66 97.17 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 0.55 2 4 5 4 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 45.40 50.09 51.66 53.13 54.22 55.47 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -1.30 1 1.6 1.4 2 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.16 0.3 0.25 0.11 0.14 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -2.90 -0.5 1.5 2 3 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10.00 11 5.25 3.15 2.62 1.97 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 56.80 55.75 55.22 54.9 54.67 54.07 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.70 19.1 17.6 18 18 21.4 Millions [+]
Car Production 4.12 4.15 4.19 4 4 4.1 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 567.10 628 640 647 652 686 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.34 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 34.00 6.41 0.98 0.81 0.83 0.83 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 911.00 5.96 21.25 21.68 21.68 21.68 Thousand Barrels (MB) [+]
Leading Economic Index 179.01 180 182 184 185 192 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 [+]
Steel Production 6833.00 6734 6320 6320 6320 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production -10.50 -7.72 -5.08 -3.18 -1.89 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 7.00 6.48 6.48 6.39 6.29 5.55 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.61 5.56 5.56 5.59 5.61 5.61 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.84 [+]
Corruption Index 76.00 75.55 76.11 76.21 76.31 76.83 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 15.63 14.85 14.52 14.19 15.1 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 89.50 89.5 91.6 91.3 91.6 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.60 0.29 0.38 0.34 0.2 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.70 2.4 3.7 3.1 3 4.36 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 0.35 0.3 0.29 0.1 0.28 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11372.90 12500 11522 11567 11608 12006 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13891.10 14016 14132 14249 14367 16066 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.27 0.71 0.27 0.26 0.23 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 5.42 5.47 5.51 5.55 6.03 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 18.56 15.36 12.73 11.67 10.63 7.68 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 8907.20 9015 9097 9158 9203 9244 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.50 3.5 3.71 3.75 4 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 45.50 46.57 47.18 47.64 47.95 49.07 [+]
Redbook Index 0.60 1.16 1.67 1.92 2.07 2.26 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.61 0.6 0.46 0.46 0.76 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.20 79.92 80.22 80.14 80.81 82.58 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4554.00 5893 6307 6419 6524 6633 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Building Permits 1153.00 0 1141 1152 1178 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1189.00 0 1170 1210 1230 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 592.00 490 510 520 510 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -0.20 0.88 0.72 0.91 1.04 1.26 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5570.00 5200 4900 5000 4800 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.80 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.9 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.20 0.4 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.3 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 59.00 59 60 60 59 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 3.65 5.1 3.73 3.77 3.82 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -1.30 0.47 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.50 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53 63.53 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 188.29 189 189 188 193 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 39 39 39 39 39 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]





Economic Forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy. 7/27/2016