United States | Economic Forecasts | 2014-2050 Outlook


Markets Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Currency 85.11 83.11 85.08 85.35 84.66 84.46 86.25 89.93 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.19 2.8 2.9 3 2.18 4.5 4 2.25 [+]
Stock Market 16380.41 17000 17000 16802 16769 16825 19664 21745 [+]
52 Week Bill Yield 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 [+]
GDP Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
GDP 16800.00 18300 18300 17436 17551 22000 25000 25000 [+]
GDP Growth Rate 4.60 3 2.8 2.8 1.41 3.1 3.1 0.88 [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60 1.8 2.31 2.29 2.3 2.47 2.72 2.36 [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16010.40 16107 16182 16194 16261 17378 18462 19337 [+]
Gross National Product 16180.70 16325 16337 16344 16343 16509 16188 16710 [+]
GDP per capita 45863.02 46349 46454 46587 46715 49110 51440 53347 [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2594.50 22630 2646 2653 2677 2602 2594 2683 [+]
GDP per capita PPP 51450.74 51478 52114 52263 52407 55093 57707 59846 [+]
Labour Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Unemployment Rate 5.90 7 5.9 6 6 5.6 5.7 5.7 [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 248.00 300 262 246 251 232 232 232 [+]
Government Payrolls 12.00 25.6 35.91 8.71 2.15 24.31 24.31 24.31 [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 236.00 215 228 237 244 210 210 210 [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 4.00 11.7 8.86 9.12 8.24 12.04 12.02 12.02 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 264.00 350 271 262 264 283 283 284 [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 2389.00 2288 2163 2050 1945 2262 2525 3002 [+]
Adp Employment Change 213.00 219 221 244 210 222 211 220 [+]
Employed Persons 146600.00 147068 147292 147573 147813 160426 180415 152956 [+]
Unemployed Persons 9262.00 9355 9290 9150 8421 8809 9001 7928 [+]
Job Vacancies 4712.00 4498 5241 5515 5849 9120 4870 9147 [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.02 2.3 1.22 1.08 0.7 2 2 0.35 [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.00 12.06 11.82 11.65 11.42 12.08 12.14 12.14 [+]
Productivity 105.97 108 100 99.57 99.32 128 140 102 [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.00 0.1 0.11 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.11 [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.60 34.54 34.56 34.58 34.61 34.52 34.52 34.52 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 90.43 97.55 104 111 154 158 158 [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 30477.00 50122 43262 35449 48663 49368 49390 49390 [+]
Wages 10.29 10.32 10.3 10.28 10.27 11.5 12.5 10.32 [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 19.60 19.82 19.8 19.85 19.98 21.19 21.9 22.29 [+]
Labour Costs 105.09 103 103 103 103 104 105 106 [+]
Population 317.30 320 320 321 321 332 351 383 [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 67 66 [+]
Prices Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Inflation Rate 1.70 2 2.2 2.4 2.05 3 2.38 1.99 [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.2 0.07 0.14 0.17 0.46 0.71 0.02 [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 237.42 241 243 245 242 355 500 406 [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.7 1.8 1.82 1.95 2.26 2.76 1.88 [+]
Core Consumer Prices 238.34 240 241 242 242 360 510 288 [+]
GDP Deflator 108.23 109 110 110 110 115 115 115 [+]
Producer Prices 111.20 112 112 112 113 122 134 148 [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.60 2.11 2.38 2.58 2.79 1.74 1.63 1.08 [+]
Export Prices 132.10 131 131 131 131 133 133 135 [+]
Import Prices 138.60 138 138 138 138 140 140 142 [+]
Food Inflation 2.60 2.84 2.95 2.93 2.7 3.01 1.8 2.15 [+]
Core Pce Price Index 107.81 108 109 109 110 112 104 106 [+]
Pce Price Index 109.07 110 110 111 111 111 112 109 [+]
Money Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Interest Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.35 3 5 1.6 [+]
Money Supply M0 3989063.00 4380054 4452807 4513418 4106490 5486040 5537118 4217370 [+]
Money Supply M1 2834.80 2955 3014 3193 3195 3931 4767 4987 [+]
Money Supply M2 11351.40 11673 11834 11820 12047 14021 23881 13333 [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4407844.00 4212502 4461282 4474607 4481019 1659860 1059860 4488764 [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 145176.00 145347 144177 144296 146467 145691 145713 145712 [+]
Loans to Private Sector 7772.55 7903 7983 8053 8119 9308 11212 13957 [+]
Trade Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Balance of Trade -40109.00 -42207 -42280 -42017 -41707 -42555 -41574 -42061 [+]
Exports 198459.00 198955 200342 200763 200018 199114 200328 202298 [+]
Imports 238568.00 241162 242622 242780 241726 241669 241902 244359 [+]
Current Account -98500.00 -104315 -104757 -105531 -105538 -103573 -103500 -103498 [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.30 -1.85 -1.78 -1.73 -1.68 -1.49 -1.48 -1.48 [+]
External Debt -4782773.00 -4395731 -4083002 -3883102 -4779304 -1098601 -915501 -4781204 [+]
Terms of Trade 97.51 98.91 98.85 97.41 41.98 94.21 95.21 44.21 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -117086.00 17379 13034 10427 8690 6517 5214 4345 [+]
Capital Flows 74500.00 40147 25663 26935 19210 -44140 38758 24872 [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 52100.00 3065 8790 7469 3326 2460 2460 2460 [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 [+]
Crude Oil Production 8537.00 8821 8972 8966 9261 12229 15299 9556 [+]
Government Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Government Budget -2.80 -3.8 -3.7 -3.5 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.06 [+]
Government Debt to GDP 101.53 102 102 103 101 104 101 101 [+]
Government Budget Value 105810.00 7983 -53357 35527 52079 17755 17755 17755 [+]
Government Spending 2880.60 2854 2848 2851 2853 2887 2901 2929 [+]
Credit Rating 96.89 [+]
Business Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Business Confidence 56.60 55.12 55.32 55.58 56.04 56 60 53.74 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 57.50 57.08 57.23 57.25 57.08 57.12 57.12 57.12 [+]
Services PMI 58.90 57.75 56.98 56.58 56.37 56.04 56.04 56.04 [+]
Industrial Production 4.30 4.87 5.05 5.02 4.72 4.9 4.5 4.64 [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 0.43 0.46 0.43 0.31 0.4 0.4 0.4 [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.70 4.27 4.5 4.58 4.38 4.16 3.9 3.91 [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.30 79.51 79.61 79.69 79.54 79.13 79.2 79.21 [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.21 0.05 0 0.03 -0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 [+]
Durable Goods Orders -18.20 0.77 2.24 1.99 2.54 0.76 0.76 0.76 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 58.60 58.48 58.9 59.89 59.79 58.33 58.31 58.31 [+]
Factory Orders -10.10 0.58 0.79 0.6 0.24 0.63 0.63 0.63 [+]
New Orders 502007.00 526829 531035 534774 531033 520340 517970 517976 [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.32 0.35 0.36 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.33 [+]
Changes in Inventories 93.40 64.98 65.12 69.92 76.23 79.94 65.95 80.11 [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.70 0.6 0.54 0.45 0.4 0.59 0.59 0.59 [+]
Bankruptcies 30113.00 28534 28093 28247 27770 21000 23000 31663 [+]
Corporate Profits 2097.00 2161 1989 2141 2072 1989 1885 2073 [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 95.30 96.73 96.35 96.48 96.55 96.19 96.22 96.22 [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.17 16.91 23.25 23.37 21.01 15.35 15.49 15.5 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 20.70 25.86 27.74 30.28 28.52 25.31 25.37 25.37 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.43 17.46 17.6 17.57 17.69 17.89 17.89 17.89 [+]
Car Registrations 729.90 551 645 645 701 851 901 626 [+]
Composite Pmi 59.00 [+]
Consumer Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Consumer Confidence 86.40 85.7 87.72 88.8 85.93 86.01 86 86 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.34 0.64 0.45 0.18 0.7 0.6 0.29 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.30 4.37 4.64 4.72 4.67 4.38 4.37 4.37 [+]
Consumer Spending 10912.60 11032 11071 11107 11141 11555 11666 11783 [+]
Disposable Personal Income 13021.20 13096 13160 13148 13477 14808 14154 26971 [+]
Personal Spending 0.50 0.26 0.32 0.31 0.14 0.26 0.26 0.26 [+]
Personal Income 0.30 1 0.44 0.36 0.37 1 0.31 0.31 [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 4.99 4.64 4.91 4.53 4.93 4.93 4.93 [+]
Consumer Credit 13.52 17.61 18.28 18.24 18.3 18.48 18.57 18.76 [+]
Bank Lending Rate 3.25 3.38 3.34 3.34 3.41 5.92 6 1.71 [+]
Economic Optimism Index 45.20 47.66 47.04 47.59 46.48 47.23 47.23 47.23 [+]
Redbook Index 3.80 3.54 4.4 4.05 4.35 4.3 4.3 4.3 [+]
Housing Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Housing Index 0.10 0.2 0.19 0.14 0.1 0.17 0.17 0.17 [+]
Building Permits 1018.00 1046 1029 1035 1033 1050 1049 1049 [+]
Housing Starts 1017.00 1049 1034 1040 1056 1053 1052 1052 [+]
New Home Sales 504.00 487 480 485 488 510 510 510 [+]
Pending Home Sales -2.20 19.6 14.7 11.76 9.8 7.35 5.88 4.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 5050.00 4902 4871 4915 4940 4967 4967 4967 [+]
Construction Spending -0.80 -0.56 -0.08 -0.26 -0.28 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 54.00 53 53.83 54.73 55.25 54.64 54.68 54.68 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.20 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.06 6 6 4.12 [+]
Mortgage Applications 5.60 4.69 -2.82 0.45 -4.15 0.23 3.99 3.64 [+]
Taxes Last Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 2020 2030 2050
Corporate Tax Rate 40.00 40 40 40 39 35 35 39 [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 46 33 33 58 [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 [+]





This page includes economic forecasts for the United States. 10/20/2014