The mean unemployment expectations in the US—the average perceived probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—rose by 44.4% in July 2026, its highest level since April of 2020. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Unemployment Expectations in the United States averaged 37.76 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 50.90 percent in March of 2020 and a record low of 30.70 percent in June of 2021. United States Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on September of 2026.



Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Earnings Growth Expectations 2.90 2.80 percent Aug 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.60 3.60 percent Aug 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.20 3.30 percent Aug 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.00 percent Aug 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.10 percent Aug 2026


United States Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations (1 Year Ahead) captures the average probability, as perceived by survey respondents, that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now. It is drawn from a nationally-representative internet-based panel of about 1,300 household heads, conducted monthly by the New York Fed.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
44.40 42.80 50.90 30.70 2013 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA