The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, signaling a slight deterioration in US economic activity. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July. Production-related indicators contributed 0.01 points, down from 0.04 points in June, while the sales, orders and inventories category contributed 0.02 points, also easing from 0.04 points. Employment-related indicators improved to a negative 0.01-point contribution from negative 0.05 points in June. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category weakened sharply, contributing negative 0.09 points after adding 0.04 points in June. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States decreased to -0.08 points in July from 0.06 points in June of 2026. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.31 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.30 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2026.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States decreased to -0.08 points in July from 0.06 points in June of 2026. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.10 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.40 points in 2027 and 0.10 points in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-07-23 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Jun -0.02 -0.19 0.14
2026-08-24 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Jul -0.08 0.06 0.1
2026-09-21 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Aug -0.08



Components Last Previous Unit Reference
CFNAI Employment Index -0.01 -0.05 points Jul 2026
CFNAI Personal Consumption and Housing Index -0.09 0.04 points Jul 2026
CFNAI Production Index 0.01 0.04 points Jul 2026
CFNAI Sales Orders and Inventories Index 0.02 0.04 points Jul 2026

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Building Permits 1433.00 1374.00 Thousand Jul 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.60 55.60 points Aug 2026
Business Inventories MoM 0.00 0.40 percent Jun 2026
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.08 0.06 points Jul 2026
Consumer Spending 16829.70 16687.70 USD Billion Jun 2026
Housing Starts 1239.00 1415.00 Thousand units Jul 2026
Industrial Production YoY 1.10 1.29 percent Jul 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY 1.20 1.50 percent Jul 2026
New Orders 663616.00 657790.00 USD Million Jul 2026
Non Farm Payrolls 162.00 21.00 Thousand Aug 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 127.00 71.00 Thousand Aug 2026
Personal Spending MoM 0.20 0.30 percent Jul 2026
Retail Sales MoM -0.60 0.20 percent Jul 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.10 percent Aug 2026


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.08 0.06 6.31 -18.30 1967 - 2026 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Chicago Fed Activity Index Falls in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, signaling a slight deterioration in US economic activity. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July. Production-related indicators contributed 0.01 points, down from 0.04 points in June, while the sales, orders and inventories category contributed 0.02 points, also easing from 0.04 points. Employment-related indicators improved to a negative 0.01-point contribution from negative 0.05 points in June. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category weakened sharply, contributing negative 0.09 points after adding 0.04 points in June. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June.
2026-08-24
Chicago Fed Activity Index Improves in June
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.02 in June 2026 from -0.19 in May, signaling a modest improvement in US economic activity. Two of the four broad categories made negative contributions to the index. The production-related category contributed -0.05, down from -0.03 in May, while employment-related indicators remained unchanged at -0.04. In contrast, the sales, orders, and inventories category improved to +0.01 from -0.09, and the personal consumption and housing category rose to +0.05 from -0.03. Meanwhile, the three-month moving average of the index (CFNAI-MA3) increased to -0.05 in June from -0.10 in May.
2026-07-23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in May
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.10 in May 2026, from an upwardly revised +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions in May. Production-related indicators contributed –0.04 in May, down from +0.23 in the prior month, while employment-related indicators contributed –0.04 (down from +0.05). The personal consumption and housing category's contributed –0.04, remaining unchanged from April. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category's contributed positively by 0.02 (up from –0.04).
2026-06-25