The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained elevated above 4.4% on Tuesday, nearing the highs reached in March, as tensions in the Middle East showed little sign of easing and rising oil prices continued to fuel inflationary pressures. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.8% in March, the highest level since March 2023 and above market expectations of 3.7%, driven largely by higher gasoline prices. Core inflation also surprised to the upside, rising to 2.8%. US President Donald Trump said the ongoing ceasefire was “on life support” after Tehran delivered what he described as an “unacceptable” response to Washington’s proposal to end the conflict. Against this backdrop, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold throughout the year, while markets currently price in a roughly 27% probability of a 25bps rate hike in December.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.44% on May 12, 2026, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May 12 of 2026.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.44% on May 12, 2026, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.04 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.33 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.13 in 12 months time.