The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.2% on Friday, near its highest level since mid-200. Traders refocused on hawkish comments from Fed officials, while a lack of concrete progress in US-Iran negotiations to end the conflict continued to fuel concerns about inflation. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey confirmed a sharp rise in inflation expectations in September. Strong US economic data, worsening fiscal conditions and rising government debt have also weighed on the Treasury market. Adding to woes, efforts by Treasury Secretary Bessent to cap long-dated yields through increased Treasury buybacks are widely seen as having had limited impact. Investors currently expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps next month, with the probability of such a move standing at around 66%.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 5.17% on September 25, 2026, marking a 0.04 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.51 points and is 0.99 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on September 26 of 2026.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 5.17% on September 25, 2026, marking a 0.04 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.51 points and is 0.99 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.99 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.75 in 12 months time.