The Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated, and the move aims to support a more timely return to the 2% target. Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 officials see the possibility of at least one more 25bps rate hike later this year with four penciling in two additional rate increases. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his forecasts. Meanwhile, the GDP is seen expanding at a slightly faster pace in 2026 (2.3% vs 2.2% in the June projection) and 2027 (2.4% vs 2.3%). PCE inflation is seen higher this year (3.7% vs 3.6%) but the forecast for 2027 was kept at 2.3%. Core inflation is also seen up in 2026 (3.4% vs 3.3%) but the forecast was left at 2.5% for 2027. The unemployment rate is now projected at 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous forecast of 4.3% for both years. source: Federal Reserve

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.39 percent from 1971 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2027 and 4.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 4.1% 3.6%
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.9% 3.4%
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4% 3.75% 4% 4%
2026-10-07 06:00 PM FOMC Minutes
2026-10-14 06:00 PM Fed Beige Book
2026-10-28 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Banks Balance Sheet 25788.10 25713.20 USD Billion Sep 2026
Fed Balance Sheet 6743031.00 6747704.00 USD Million Oct 2026
Foreign Exchange Reserves 38343.00 37797.00 USD Million Jul 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.40 3.40 percent Aug 2026
Fed Interest Rate 4.00 3.75 percent Sep 2026
Loans to Private Sector 2945.00 2899.50 USD Billion Aug 2026
Money Supply M0 5411600.00 5523900.00 USD Million Aug 2026
Money Supply M1 19991.10 19886.50 USD Billion Aug 2026
Money Supply M2 23342.80 23217.90 USD Billion Aug 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.10 percent Sep 2026


United States Fed Funds Interest Rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.00 3.75 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
Fed Raises Rates for 1st Time Since 2023
The Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated, and the move aims to support a more timely return to the 2% target. Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 officials see the possibility of at least one more 25bps rate hike later this year with four penciling in two additional rate increases. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his forecasts. Meanwhile, the GDP is seen expanding at a slightly faster pace in 2026 (2.3% vs 2.2% in the June projection) and 2027 (2.4% vs 2.3%). PCE inflation is seen higher this year (3.7% vs 3.6%) but the forecast for 2027 was kept at 2.3%. Core inflation is also seen up in 2026 (3.4% vs 3.3%) but the forecast was left at 2.5% for 2027. The unemployment rate is now projected at 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous forecast of 4.3% for both years.
2026-09-16
Fed Set to Raise Rates for 1st Time Since 2023
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, marking the first rate hike since 2023, as inflation remains well above target and the energy shock stemming from the war with Iran continues to weigh on the outlook. US headline inflation held at 3.4% year-on-year in August, while core inflation was at 2.4%. Meanwhile, diesel prices have risen to $6 a gallon, adding further pressure to the inflation outlook as an end to the conflict appears increasingly distant. In his Jackson Hole speech last month, Chair Warsh said that if the Fed was not confident that underlying inflation was declining, it would have “work to do”. Policymakers will also release updated economic projections. In June, the so-called dot plot showed that nine officials expected at least one rate hike this year, while six anticipated at least two. Chair Warsh did not submit a forecast at the time.
2026-09-16
Fed Chair Warsh Flags Inflation Risks
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh flagged that underlying inflation is not slowing, during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The Chairman reiterated that the PCE price index remains the gauge to be targeted, clarifying doubts from market participants after he downplayed a strict inflation gauge and opted for a more flexible model touted by one of the task forces he created. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, in line with expectations, despite markets assigning roughly a one-in-three probability to a rate hike. Three FOMC members dissented for a rate hike. After the decision, Chairman Warsh downplayed the funds rate as the preferred tool to fight inflationary risks in favor of a smaller Fed balance sheet, and continued to criticize forward guidance.
2026-08-28