The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026, as policymakers continue to navigate heightened uncertainty stemming from renewed tensions between the US and Iran, despite softer-than-expected inflation data. US inflation fell to 3.5% in June, marking its first decline in five months. Investors will closely watch both the voting split and Fed Chair Warsh's press conference for signals on the likelihood of a rate hike in September, which markets are currently pricing at around an 80% probability. Fed Chair Warsh has reiterated that restoring price stability remains the Federal Reserve's primary priority. source: Federal Reserve

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 3.75 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.39 percent from 1971 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 3.75 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 3.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-17 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3.1% 3.1%
2026-06-17 06:00 PM Interest Rate Projection - Current 3.8% 3.4%
2026-06-17 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
2026-07-29 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
2026-09-02 06:00 PM Fed Beige Book
2026-09-16 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Banks Balance Sheet 25696.40 25626.30 USD Billion Jul 2026
Fed Balance Sheet 6747378.00 6743028.00 USD Million Jul 2026
Foreign Exchange Reserves 38587.00 38838.00 USD Million May 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.50 4.20 percent Jun 2026
Fed Interest Rate 3.75 3.75 percent Jun 2026
Loans to Private Sector 2894.70 2885.90 USD Billion Jun 2026
Money Supply M0 5488400.00 5538600.00 USD Million Jun 2026
Money Supply M1 19831.50 19751.00 USD Billion Jun 2026
Money Supply M2 23155.20 23055.60 USD Billion Jun 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.30 percent Jun 2026


United States Fed Funds Interest Rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.75 3.75 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
Warsh Reaffirms Fed's Commitment to Price Stability
Fed Chair Warsh said policymakers remain fully committed to restoring price stability and have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation, according to prepared remarks released ahead of his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Warsh added, "If we get policy right - and we will - the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past". The Fed Chair also said the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace, demonstrating resilience despite recent developments. Household consumption is growing at a moderate rate, while manufacturing output has risen steadily this year. He highlighted business investment as the economy's most notable strength, driven largely by the construction of data centers and robust demand for AI-related equipment and software. On the labor market, Warsh noted that job creation has kept pace with labor force growth, the unemployment rate remains low while nominal wages continue to post solid growth.
2026-07-14
Fed Divided Over Interest Rate Outlook
Fed officials were divided on the future of interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and monetary policy, minutes from the FOMC meeting in June 2026 showed. Participants generally assessed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and a few commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising interest rates. Most participants also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labor market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%. However, under their most likely economic outlook, many officials expected interest rates to end the year at or slightly below their current level. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in June, in line with expectations.
2026-07-08
Warsh Sees Easing Inflation Risks, Sticks to 2% Target Goal
Inflation risks have eased in recent weeks, but the US central bank remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2% target, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Warsh stressed that delivering price stability remains the Fed's primary objective, while noting that the strategy to achieve it will continue to evolve. Warsh also underscored the Fed's independence in setting monetary policy, dismissing any suggestion that political pressure would influence its decisions. The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank will no longer provide traditional forward guidance on future interest-rate decisions, signaling a shift in its communication approach. He also declined to comment on the outlook for the upcoming policy meeting, saying decisions will be based on incoming data. Last month, the Fed held rates steady but signaled growing support among officials for additional hikes later this year as inflation remains elevated.
2026-07-01