United States Durable Goods Orders  Forecast 2016-2020

Durable Goods Orders in the United States is expected to be 0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Durable Goods Orders in the United States to stand at -1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Durable Goods Orders is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Durable Goods Orders
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Forecast Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020 Unit
Durable Goods Orders 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.4 percent
United States Durable Goods Orders Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Durable Goods Orders using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Durable Goods Orders - was last predicted on Saturday, March 25, 2017.
United States Business Last Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Business Confidence 57.7 57 53.1 52.4 51.5 52
Services PMI 52.9 52.9 53.6 52.4 52.7 54.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.6 57 57.3 57.5 57.1 57.1
Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.4 54.7 53.8 53 53
Composite Pmi 53.2 53.2 53.8 53.8 52 55.1
Industrial Production 0.3 0.4 1.5 2 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 2 1.9
Capacity Utilization 75.4 75.9 75.8 75.9 76 78
Durable Goods Orders 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 2.1 -1.03 0.11 0.28 0.3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.3 0.94 0.48 0.33 0.29 0.27
New Orders 470202 469535 471370 472053 472301 472444
Factory Orders 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.2
Business Inventories 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.2
Changes in Inventories 46.2 69.14 69.32 63.35 70.07 72.03
Wholesale Inventories -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 24114 23742 23358 23304 23112 23214
Corporate Profits 1575 1584 1589 1598 1606 1700
NFIB Business Optimism Index 105 105 106 101 95 97
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 16.4 15 12 9 8 5
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 32.8 24 16 12 9 6.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 17 12 10 6 4 3
Ism New York Index 51.3 54.84 53.75 54.38 54.32 54.28
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.34 0.21 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.05
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 24.5 16 15 14.3 14 2
Chicago Pmi 57.4 54.5 54.7 55 55.93 55.93
Total Vehicle Sales 17.58 18.5 19 15 14 18.7
Car Production 3.42 3.89 3.92 3.86 3.61 4.04
Car Registrations 441 554 581 559 539 540
Crude Oil Stocks Change 4.95 1.4 1.5 1 -0.5 0.1
Natural Gas Stocks Change -150 -112 -133 -133 -133 -133
Gasoline Stocks Change -2811 -364 25.32 25.32 25.32 25.32
Leading Economic Index 181 182 183 185 186 195
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86 53.86
Steel Production 6362 6300 6320 6400 6470 7150
Mining Production 1.8 1.47 2.04 2.2 2 1
Competitiveness Index 5.7 5.61 5.66 5.61 5.66 5.69
Competitiveness Rank 3 3 3 3 3 3
Ease of Doing Business 8 7 7 7 7 7
Corruption Index 74 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5
Corruption Rank 18 16 16 16 16 16