United States Consumer Sentiment  Forecast 2016-2020

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 95.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 94.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Consumer Confidence 98 95.3 95 94 94 86.7
United States Consumer Sentiment Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Consumer Sentiment using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Consumer Sentiment - was last predicted on Monday, April 24, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 98 95.3 95 94 94 86.7
Retail Sales MoM -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.2 3 3.1 5.43 5.43 5.44
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 0.31
Consumer Spending 11670 11851 11938 12020 12095 12741
Disposable Personal Income 14402 14539 14650 14761 14872 16090
Personal Spending 0.1 0.1 0.32 0.4 0.32 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.33 0.33 0.6 0.33 0.33
Personal Savings 5.6 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54 5.54
Consumer Credit 15.2 17.09 17.21 17.24 17.24 17.24
Private Sector Credit 9133 9195 9256 9314 9368 9794
Bank Lending Rate 3.88 4 3.85 4.25 3.87 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 51.7 52.62 51.48 51 50.79 50.64
Redbook Index 2.3 1.85 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.4 79.5 79.5 80 80.26 82.6
Chain Store Sales 3584 4947 4852 4871 4866 4867