United States Consumer Sentiment  Forecast 2016-2020

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 95.50 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 92.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Forecast Actual Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020 Unit
Consumer Confidence 97.6 95.5 95.3 95 92 86.7
United States Consumer Sentiment Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States Consumer Sentiment using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - United States Consumer Sentiment - was last predicted on Wednesday, March 29, 2017.
United States Consumer Last Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.6 95.5 95.3 95 92 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.1 0.34 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 5.7 3.1 3 3.1 5.96 5.97
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.2 0.34 0.1 0.2 0.32 0.32
Consumer Spending 11655 11747 11825 11903 11978 12633
Disposable Personal Income 14345 14408 14519 14629 14740 16056
Personal Spending 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.31 0.4 0.5
Personal Income 0.4 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.6 0.32
Personal Savings 5.5 5.55 5.51 5.52 5.52 5.52
Consumer Credit 8.79 16.83 17.28 17.35 17.38 17.39
Private Sector Credit 9131 9152 9229 9300 9366 9932
Bank Lending Rate 3.75 3.75 4 3.67 4.25 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 55.3 55.3 52.62 51.48 51 50.64
Redbook Index 0.6 1.21 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54
Households Debt To Gdp 79.4 79.3 79.5 79.5 80 82.6
Chain Store Sales 3129 4826 4950 4872 4887 4885