Actual
14.2950
Daily Change
0.0500
Monthly
-0.40%
Yearly
0.47%
Q3 Forecast
14.3159
Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Summary

Brazil’s 10-Year government bond yield fell to around 14.14% in September, a three-month low, following lower-than-expected inflation data. Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.22% in August 2026 from 4.44% in July, slightly below forecasts of 4.27% and moving further within the central bank’s target range of 1.50%-4.50%. The data strengthened expectations that the BCB will cut the Selic by another 25 basis points at next week’s Copom meeting. Meanwhile, recent polls have shown Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the presidential race. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. The move gained further momentum as the intensification of a dispute between Supreme Court justices Alexandre de Moraes, seen as a Lula ally, and André Mendonça has escalated into an institutional crisis.

Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Stats

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 14.30% on September 11, 2026, marking a 0.05 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.40 points, though it remains 0.47 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 1401 in December of 2022. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on September 12 of 2026.

Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Forecast

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 14.30% on September 11, 2026, marking a 0.05 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.40 points, though it remains 0.47 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 14.32 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 13.77 in 12 months time.



Bonds Yield Day Month Year Date
Brazil 10Y 14.30 0.050% -0.395% 0.472% Sep/11
Brazil 52W 13.55 -0.020% -0.082% -0.727% Sep/11
Brazil 2Y 13.83 0.010% -0.235% 0.215% Sep/11
Brazil 3M 13.39 0.001% -0.285% -1.412% Sep/11
Brazil 3Y 14.02 0.013% -0.390% 0.770% Sep/11
Brazil 5Y 14.02 -0.130% -0.545% 0.560% Sep/11
Brazil 6M 13.38 -0.024% -0.170% -1.337% Sep/11



Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Brazil Inflation Rate 4.22 4.44 percent Aug 2026
Brazil Interest Rate 14.00 14.25 percent Aug 2026
Brazil Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.40 percent Jul 2026

Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
14.30 14.25 1401.00 6.25 1998 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
Brazil 10-Year Yield Falls on Rate-Cut Bets
Brazil’s 10-Year government bond yield fell to around 14.14% in September, a three-month low, following lower-than-expected inflation data. Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.22% in August 2026 from 4.44% in July, slightly below forecasts of 4.27% and moving further within the central bank’s target range of 1.50%-4.50%. The data strengthened expectations that the BCB will cut the Selic by another 25 basis points at next week’s Copom meeting. Meanwhile, recent polls have shown Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the presidential race. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. The move gained further momentum as the intensification of a dispute between Supreme Court justices Alexandre de Moraes, seen as a Lula ally, and André Mendonça has escalated into an institutional crisis.
2026-09-11
Brazil Yields Drop as Election Race Tightens
Brazil's government bond yield fell to 14.3% in September, the lowest in three months, following the release of new polls on the 2026 presidential election. The polls showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in a potential October runoff. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above forecasts. However, high inflation and borrowing costs due to the widening public deficits reflected some deterioration in household consumption, which contracted by 0.4%. For the BCB, the data suggest that the effects of monetary tightening are increasingly visible, potentially leaving room for further Selic cuts.
2026-09-08
Brazil 10-Year Yield Falls After Election Poll
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 14.45% from a near one-month high of 14.90% reached on August 14, following the release of the Genial/Quaest poll on the 2026 presidential election. The poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in a potential October runoff, with Lula receiving 42% of voting intentions versus 41% for Bolsonaro. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above forecasts, driven mainly by agriculture. However, the detailed breakdown was weaker, suggesting economic momentum is fading despite a tight labor market and short-term demand stimulus measures. For the BCB, the data suggest that the effects of monetary tightening are increasingly visible, potentially leaving room for further Selic cuts.
2026-09-02