The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond stabilized near 13.5% as investors balanced a high Selic rate against a fresh inflation spike. Mid-month inflation jumped 0.8% in February, which was significantly higher than the expected 0.6% and driven by rising education and transport costs. This surprise has complicated the path for the Central Bank of Brazil, which held its policy rate at 15.0% in January but had signaled a potential cut for March 18. While a record 2025 tax revenue of R$2.89 trillion and a $4.34 billion trade surplus in January provide a fiscal cushion, the resilient labor market and sticky price pressures have caused traders to dial back bets on aggressive easing. Brazilian yields also remain sensitive to global trade volatility and the shift in US Treasury yields below 4.0%. However, the high real yield differential continues to attract foreign capital as the market waits to see if the central bank will prioritize its inflation target over growth concerns.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 13.67% on March 3, 2026, marking a 0.14 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 1.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 1401 in December of 2022. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March 4 of 2026.

The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 13.67% on March 3, 2026, marking a 0.14 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 1.41 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 13.39 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 12.91 in 12 months time.



Bonds Yield Day Month Year Date
Brazil 10Y 13.67 0.142% 0.097% -1.412% Mar/03
Brazil 52W 13.03 0.173% 0.108% -1.782% Mar/03
Brazil 2Y 12.90 0.186% 0.183% -2.012% Mar/03
Brazil 3M 14.65 0.011% -0.076% 1.040% Mar/03
Brazil 3Y 12.93 0.202% 0.182% -1.918% Mar/03
Brazil 5Y 13.27 0.197% 0.170% -1.695% Mar/03
Brazil 6M 14.22 0.130% -0.040% -0.025% Mar/03



Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Brazil Inflation Rate 4.44 4.26 percent Jan 2026
Brazil Interest Rate 15.00 15.00 percent Jan 2026
Brazil Unemployment Rate 5.10 5.20 percent Dec 2025

Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
13.67 13.53 1401.00 6.25 1998 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Holds Around 13.5%
The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond stabilized near 13.5% as investors balanced a high Selic rate against a fresh inflation spike. Mid-month inflation jumped 0.8% in February, which was significantly higher than the expected 0.6% and driven by rising education and transport costs. This surprise has complicated the path for the Central Bank of Brazil, which held its policy rate at 15.0% in January but had signaled a potential cut for March 18. While a record 2025 tax revenue of R$2.89 trillion and a $4.34 billion trade surplus in January provide a fiscal cushion, the resilient labor market and sticky price pressures have caused traders to dial back bets on aggressive easing. Brazilian yields also remain sensitive to global trade volatility and the shift in US Treasury yields below 4.0%. However, the high real yield differential continues to attract foreign capital as the market waits to see if the central bank will prioritize its inflation target over growth concerns.
2026-02-27
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Halts Plunge
The yield on Brazil’s 10 year government bond stabilized near 13.45% halting its slide to seven week lows as firm demand met easing near term funding pressures and the support of an exceptionally restrictive policy rate. Copom’s decision to keep the Selic at 15% while stressing that any future easing will be cautious and data dependent continues to anchor a wide real yield differential sustaining foreign carry and duration inflows into Brazilian assets. This backdrop has been reinforced by softer inflation dynamics that lowered forward rate expectations and compressed term premia. Even so risk premia remain sticky as persistent political and fiscal noise sustains uncertainty over the medium term fiscal outlook limiting further compression in long dated yields.
2026-01-29
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Drops From 3-Month High
The yield on Brazil’s 10 year government bond fell to 13.65% from three month highs reached on January 20th as stronger demand collided with easing near term funding pressures and a still powerful rate cushion. Foreign inflows have been a key driver, with non-residents adding more than R$12bn to Brazilian equities by late January and extending that demand into local bonds, helping absorb supply and push prices higher. This appetite is reinforced by a Selic rate still at 15% and market pricing that delays the first cut until March, preserving highly attractive real yields and sustaining carry driven interest in longer dated debt. Fiscal and external dynamics have also helped compress risk premia, as record tax revenues of R$2.89tn in 2025 eased immediate budget strain and foreign direct investment largely covered the 2025 current account gap, reducing rollover and FX funding risks.
2026-01-27