Crude oil fell over 8% to around $88 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and reaching its lowest level in one month. Prices remained under pressure as investors assessed prospects for de-escalation in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran following the Republican Party’s losses in the midterm elections. President Donald Trump said Washington had no immediate plans for further strikes, although he stressed that the US remained prepared to act if necessary. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan continued, with Qatari officials expecting responses from both sides on proposals to resolve the conflict, despite reports that negotiations remain far from an agreement. Supply dynamics also weighed on prices, as renewed Gulf exports pushed Middle Eastern oil availability above near-term demand for the first time since July. In the US, however, crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels last week, marking their fifth consecutive weekly decline.

The ISM Services PMI decreased to 54.5 in October 2026, the lowest in three months, compared to 54.9 in September and forecasts of 54.8. The reading pointed to a slowdown in services growth, due to business activity (53.8 vs 56.5), new orders (55.9 vs 59.8), and inventories (55.4 vs 57.8). Meanwhile, there was slower supplier delivery performance (56.7 vs 53.2) while employment expanded for a second month (51.4 vs 50.1) and price pressures eased (73 vs 74). “Tariffs and fuel cost impacts continued to be the most-cited issues impacting respondents’ supply chains, while many respondents indicated they are not yet seeing the full impact of these cost escalations or have not passed them through to customers. This indicates that more pricing pressure is on the way if oil and tariff cost impacts are not mitigated, even if they do not increase from current levels. Commentary on supply chain constraints increased significantly month over month", according to Steve Miller, Chair of the ISM.

The US trade deficit narrowed slightly to $105 billion in September 2026 from $105.7 billion in August, compared to forecasts of a $108 billion gap. Exports jumped 1.9% to a five-month high of $321.5 billion, boosted by sales of computers, soybeans, crude oil, computer accessories, civilian aircraft, and pharmaceutical preparations while a decrease was recorded for nonmonetary gold. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower 1.2% but reached a record high of $426.6 billion, led by purchases of computers, computer accessories, and pharmaceutical preparations while a decrease was seen for semiconductors, nonmonetary gold and crude oil. The largest trade gaps were recorded with Mexico ($-28.7 billion), Vietnam ($-25.3 billion), Taiwan ($-21.9 billion), China ($-17.9 billion), the EU ($-14.2 billion) and South Korea ($-12.8 billion). The deficit with Canada was at $4.4 billion.

Private businesses in the US added 86K jobs in October 2026, exceeding market expectations of 69K and matching September’s downwardly revised gain. Hiring remained solid for a second consecutive month, with businesses of all sizes adding workers. Mid-sized companies led with 33K new positions, followed by small firms with 28K and large businesses with 24K. Job creation was concentrated in services, particularly trade, transportation and utilities, which added 39K positions, while education and health services contributed 28K and leisure and hospitality 19K. Financial activities and construction also recorded gains. However, professional and business services shed 27K jobs for a third consecutive month, while natural resources and mining lost 8K and information services declined by 2K. According to ADP’s Nela Richardson, pay growth for workers changing jobs reached its fastest pace since March 2024, supported by higher base salaries, bonuses, overtime and longer working hours.

Canada posted a trade surplus of C$5.4 billion in September 2026, the highest since May 2022, widening from the revised C$5 billion in the prior month. Figures surprised analysts who expected it at C$4.1 billion. Exports rose by 0.2% mom to a record high of C$78.6 billion, driven by higher shipments of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+8.6%), mainly unwrought gold to the US, alongside energy products (+8.2%), supported by higher prices for crude oil, bitumen and natural gas. Excluding these two product sections, exports fell 5.6% in September, amid the impact of new US tariffs. Meanwhile, total imports fell 0.3% to C$73.2 billion, as reduced purchases of motor vehicle and parts (-9.1%) and consumer goods (-2.9%) were partly offset by a 10.3% jump in electronic and electrical equipment and parts. Canada's merchandise trade surplus was essentially unchanged in the third quarter at $11.2 billion, with both exports and imports rising by 0.2%.

Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September, according to preliminary estimates, reaching its highest level since September 2023 and remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target. The increase was driven primarily by a sharp surge in energy prices amid continued fighting in the Middle East, with energy inflation jumping to 20.8%, its highest level since December 2022. Price growth also accelerated in services, to 3.3% from 3.2%, and unprocessed food, to 4.6% from 4.0%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, remained unchanged at 2.5%, in line with expectations. Among the eurozone’s largest economies, inflation accelerated in France to 3.8% from 3.4%, Italy to 5.6% from 4.2%, and the Netherlands to 3.3% from 3.0%. In contrast, Germany’s inflation rate eased to 2.8% from 3.3%, partly reflecting a temporary fuel tax cut, while Spain’s rate edged down to 4.9% from 5.0%.